Idiots everywhere are getting ahead of their skis. This is the situation:
- The virus is still out there. There are thousands of new cases daily and thousands of deaths daily.
- These rates are similar to the times when COVID-19 was making headlines and restrictions on exposures were attempted to stem the tide. The horrible spike soon followed.
- There is little to no herd immunity yet because only a few million have antibodies to the virus.
- Testing is still woefully inadequate.
- Summer will not save us. It’s always summer in our homes and businesses.
- Trump will not save us. He’s trying to wash his hands of the catastrophe blaming it on previous administrations and governments with “no deficit” lines in their constitutions.
- There is no vaccine on the horizon.
- There is no good treatment.
No. Do the maths. This thing won’t “go away”. That’s childish wishful thinking. This thing will come back for a second wave and a third wave if we let it. 7% of infections result in death globally. 6% of infections result in death in USA. Do you feel lucky? Well, do you punk? (Dirty Harry as COVID-19)…UPDATE On reflection, things are worse than I thought. Rather than just starting a new wave, USA is starting a bigger and badder wave. My reasoning is thus: this thing spreads exponentially. The difference between the first wave and the second wave is that for the second wave we are starting with thousands rather than tens of spreaders. That means whatever the magnitude of the current number of infections/impending deaths growth will be hundreds of times faster resulting in certain overloading of the rickety for-profit health-system. I’m not so concerned with WA, CA and NY as much as the many smaller states which have just begun to see their first wave. The human wave assault on their position is overwhelming and multiple grenades have landed in the trench. Social distancing will look like a pleasant picnic compared to calling in friendly fire to stop things this time. There will have to be roadblocks and martial law this time or millions of lives could be snuffed out. Blame Trump. I’m just the messenger.