Trump’s Stats

“The survey finds Trump with the support of 24% of Republican registered voters. His nearest competitor, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, stands 11 points behind at 13%. Just behind Bush, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has 9%, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker 8%, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul 6%, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, former tech CEO Carly Fiorina and Ohio Gov. John Kasich all land at 5%, with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee rounding out the top 10 at 4%.”
 
See Post-debate, Trump Pulls Clear of Competition
While watching the train-wreck that is USAian politics, I’ve noticed folks are paying huge attention to Trump, simply because he says the most outrageous things and is leading in the polls of GOP voters. There are two things wrong with this:

  • USAian voters in general are entertained by folks who say outrageous things but they vote for folks who are more middle-of-the-road, folks who are less likely to break things like the economy and peace…
  • When ~25% of GOP voters support Trump there may well be 75% who will vote for anyone but Trump.

The net effect of these considerations is that Trump will NOT be the candidate for GOP, and if Trump goes third party or voters fear a party of which 25% supported Trump, GOP may well go down in flames in 2016. BTW, the only arrow in GOP’s quiver against Clinton is that she had tech-savvy people around her who could run an e-mail server… Many other notable political leaders have done the same, including the beloved Colin Powell. So, GOP are definitely barking up the wrong tree. Remember, it started about Benghazi. GOP are cutting off the limb upon which they stand, credibility.

The way USAians love front-runners, this situation will persist until the GOP convention. There, Trump will lose his lead as competitors drop out and their share goes to fewer competitors. It might take a few rounds of voting but Trump will not get the nod. Will he take his marbles home or have a temper tantrum? Who knows? It probably doesn’t matter after everyone figures out that the two-party system isn’t big enough of a tent to hold all political views in USA.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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6 Responses to Trump’s Stats

  1. ram says:

    So when has the USA had elections? In my (long) lifetime I’ve only seen machines vote there, not people. I expect that has only become worse (if that is possible) over the years.

  2. ssorbom says:

    You shouldn’t care about other nations
    That’s not how globalized markets work. A sneeze in Hong Kong affects stock prices in Germany. Some problems can’t be dealt with by retreating into a shell. This is where Trump’s isolationist stance will hurt us. Doing business on a global scale is a good thing in the long run (though short term outcomes often stink). Just look at the EU. Sure there are financial troubles, but those are temporary. Eventually the only thing people will remember is that they can travel between borders without a passport. BTW, very early political structures in the US had the EXACT same problems as the EU did. The solution was to get closer, not pull away. I think the same logic holds true for globalization.

  3. kurkosdr wrote, “You shouldn’t care about other nations.”

    That would be fine if other nations didn’t keep deciding they were special and had a right to rule the world( China, Japan, Germany, Rome, Russia…). One has to set limits and be prepared to back them up. Since USA refuses to play ball with much of the world, they will have to lead, follow or get out of the way.

  4. kurkosdr says:

    I like Trump, just because he says all the things the politically-correct “won’t somebody think of (insert non-problem here)” people consider faux pass (even if it’s an imposed faux pass). Oh, and he functions as a counterweight to the feminist “blame men and women are always the victim” movement. And yes, men should get to criticise fatasses and old women acting like young just like women get to criticise beer belly men and old men going after chicks. That’s how it works. Screw “fat positive” (for women only, fat men are “gross and disgusting”)

    Oh, and he promised to stengthen immigration rules. This is not good for a foreigner like me, but it’s good for the USAians. Because they ‘ll have to compete with other USAians on a performance/salary ratio, not with other USAians and the whole frickin’ Asia.

    And if he manages to reduce the deficit by funding the war against ISIS they are slowly being dragged into using Iraq’s oil, so much the better for the USAians.

    No, USAians don’t have to care about other nations and pretends to be the world’s Justice League. You shouldn’t care about other nations. They won’t care about your’s. And that’s how it should work.

  5. ssorbom says:

    Still, it is a bit early to be placing bets.
    Campaign season doesn’t even open officially until the Iowa Caucus.
    http://people.howstuffworks.com/iowa-caucus.htm

  6. ssorbom says:

    So much more I could say on this subject, but, as someone who is from the USA, I can say you nailed most of the important points.
    I’m betting John Kasich will be the nominee.
    Why? he’s a moderate nobody has heard of.
    Look at Mitt Rommney for comparison.

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