Android/Linux Is The New PacMan

As the map below shows, Android/Linux has overtaken desktop operating systems over much of the world, a huge swath through Asia and most of Africa. Along with skipping lock-in to Wintel, many folks are skipping copper and cable and satellite for WiFi. Further, a huge chunk of the world has Android/Linux in second or third spot. The PC may not be dead yet but it’s certainly changed. It now fits in a pocket and comes without a licence from M$.

StatCounter Global Stats
Top Operating Systems Per Country, W02 2015

Source: StatCounter Global Stats – OS Market Share

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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35 Responses to Android/Linux Is The New PacMan

  1. oiaohm says:

    DrLoser something else to serous-ally consider.

    A lot of iphone users upgraded to the Iphone 6. Not exactly because their current Iphone did not have enough performance but because the old Iphones have true glass screens. These old iphone screens break badly and commonly.

    The Iphone 6 has gorilla glass. So users needing to replace due to breakage will reduce after Iphone 6. The ipads got gorilla glass before the Iphones yes Ipad sales dropped off as soon after the gorilla glass models become common.

    By 2016 things for Apple could be looking very interesting in a bad way. There is going to be a sales drop due to less replacement due to breakage.

    Android models have less replacement due to breakage. Android common cause of replacement is out of date OS.

  2. oiaohm says:

    DrLoser the idiot has to think he is smart.

    Little fact bout revenue. Revenue is a highly not important figure. If I have Gross Margin of 0% it does not matter if I sell 1 dollar or 1 trillion dollars worth of product I still would only have zero dollars in my pocket at the end of the day.

    DrLoser if you had checked Roberts Cite you would have found the 14% revenue increase did not happen. Apple only go a 9% revenue increase. Yes the company estimates were off by 5 percent. Why is this.

    Two things are happening to Apple at the same time. Apple market in phones and devices is leveling off at the same time there margins are dropping.

    The reality is there is not the market space to grow into.

    DrLoser Company estimates should always be taken with a serous grain of salt.

    Its like the forecasts you see that Windows Phone is going to magically grow. Other than Germany Windows Phone is decreasing everywhere.

    By the way you have a car crash in some Australian states you need either a Android compatible or Iphone to report the crash. Windows phone or any other OS is a paper weight. Just like Oldman use to say its about the Applications. Australia you get iphone and android apps from all government departments. China some departments do iphone applications all do Android so in china of course Android like 80 percent usage.

    Some markets Apple does not stand a long term chance.

    It would be very interesting if we had a map of OS’s supported by countries governments.

    Remember Australia I get a free copy of Windows to submit tax return. Windows 7 is the best version of Windows to run the Application.

    Central Bank of Bolivia for merchants using Android so Bolivia being high there is kinda a reason. If all merchants have android and it does what they need why would they have another.

    A map of government and other major economic powers OS support has never been made. That map might explain a lot of strangeness.

    I very much suspect the percentage of Linux lines up to can you submit a tax return using Linux.

  3. DrLoser says:

    Dropping margins with a failures to grow market share equals at some point in future Apples income will drop.

    You’re suffering from what I believe the medical wallahs call “Douginess,” oiaohm — a consistent inability to scroll down past the first page of your cite. Had you done so, you would have encountered the following:

    However, say the analysts, the introduction of the more expensive iPhone 6 Plus pushes up the average selling price – and the company estimates that increased demand for the new models will lead to 14 percent growth in year-on-year revenue.

    In other words, oiaohm, the analysts do not agree with you.

  4. DrLoser says:

    It looks to me that Apple’s Good Old Days ended around 2012.

    I suppose it depends upon one’s angle of vision. Those margins look pretty consistent to me, what with a standard deviation of 2.4.

    As matter of fact, I had no prior knowledge that they were that consistent; I had assumed a steady drop from ~40% to ~30% … which would still be stonkingly high. I’m grateful that at least one person on MrPogson.com is capable of producing a genuine, informative cite.

    Even if one accepts evidence of “decline,” there’s precious little evidence of oiaohm’s conclusion that Apple need to “build a war-chest,” is there?

  5. DrLoser wrote, “a quote on Apple phone margins over, say, the last five years would be relevant here.”

    I think such numbers (gross margin on total sales) as a measure of the strength of a monopoly are telling:
    2014 38.6%
    2013 37.6%
    2012 43.9%
    2011 40.5%
    2010 39.4%
    “The Retail segment’s operating income was $4.6 billion, $4.0 billion and $4.6 billion during 2014, 2013 and 2012, respectively. The year-over-year increase in Retail segment operating income in 2014 was attributable to higher net sales and higher gross margin primarily due to a higher mix of iPhone.”

    It looks to me that Apple’s Good Old Days ended around 2012. A bunch of rich folks are still willing to pay their high prices but the rest of us are enjoying Android/Linux on ARM. Apple’s margins are still far too high to suggest Apple feels competition in its primary markets, rich folks and people who think Apple is “cool”, but I think they have expanded that monopoly as far as they can and it has nowhere to go but down.

  6. oiaohm says:

    DrLoser really please you like asking me for cites because you think I am making stuff up. Reality here is you are always making stuff up off the top of your head.

    Something to remember exactly what you have the habit of accusing others of is something you have a high probability of doing yourself.

  7. oiaohm says:

    https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=AAPL&annual
    I doubt there’s much of a year on year difference.
    That 130 billion is the war chest. Every year Apple is increasing money in long term investments.

    DrLoser if you follow Apples balance sheets back as soon as they start idevices they start building these long term investments. So Apples balance sheet shows building of a war chest but for what and why is not 100 percent known. A good guess is that they see possible future income problems.

    http://9to5mac.com/2014/09/17/credit-suisse-estimates-iphone-6-earns-lowest-ever-margins-but-predicts-14-percent-revenue-growth/

    This is the reality. Year on Year apples margins on idevices is dropping.

    As apple is forced to release competitive devices against Android the amount of Margin they can make is reducing.

    At some point in future Apple will be reduced to the same margin rate as Android makers.

    Nothing wrong with apple obeying the old rule of making hay while the sun shines. But its being aware that this is what Apple is doing.

    Dropping margins with a failures to grow market share equals at some point in future Apples income will drop.

    Perhaps a quote on Apple phone margins over, say, the last five years would be relevant here.
    Exactly DrLoser why did you not cite this yourself. I know why you want to keep on making crap up without evidence. The Evidence tells a very horible story for Apples future it also shows Apple planning for it.

  8. DrLoser says:

    Apple gouging over idevices could be that Apple also sees the writing on the wall and are aware they need to build a survival war chest of money.

    Perhaps a quote on Apple phone margins over, say, the last five years would be relevant here.

    I doubt there’s much of a year on year difference. And this “war chest?” Apple has $150 billion sitting behind them. I imagine they can magic up a war chest out of that with no extra effort.

    Naturally, you know better, oiaohm.

  9. DrLoser says:

    DrLoser I picked there HTC One M8 it was the most expensive and we do have direct evidence of it selling.

    It costs, I think, £550. And you can get it for free on a Vodafone contract for £31 per month. Which was kind of my point.

    I don’t know whether there are any high-end Android phones selling “just because they are so yummy and they use the Linux kernel and, well, Oooooh!.” There may be.

    But most of this market segment relies on people getting their phone “free” with a carrier contract. Very nice, but no real evidence that people buy on “power” rather than “bling.”

  10. oiaohm says:

    DrLoser
    Are there any apps out there in proprietary (or otherwise) stores that require this extra power?
    Google play sells more games than iTunes. This is partly because of Android being more powerful hardware you see people complain that particular games are not playable on the weaker/cheaper hardware of Android. So yes there are proprietary programs that need the cpu/gpu power on Android. Interesting enough this was the case on early PC as well that the games were the most hardware intensive thing you could run. Of course later years of th PC this has changed.

    Browser rendering speed is also linked to how powerful the cpu.

    MS Office for Android or iOS also is dependent on how powerful the cpu for how quick it can render a document.

    The core feature is using it as a phone. Using as a phone is runtime figures.

    http://bgr.com/2014/04/16/htc-one-m8-sales-q2/

    DrLoser I picked there HTC One M8 it was the most expensive and we do have direct evidence of it selling. Those buying expensive Android phones are in the minority at this stage but they do exist. The fact they exist really undermines the idea that only the poor are buying Android.

    There are expensive Android with no good sales figures those also turn out to have crappy runtime figures. So if you wish to sell an expensive android phone it better have decent runtime figures so don’t be a cheap with the battery.

    Its the exists of items HTC One M8 that makes you question if iOS devices are exactly like Apple computers before general PC crushed their market.

    In fact the lower number of games on iOS compare to Android match exactly what happened with the the PC vs Apple.

    The higher profit arguement was made with the Apple vs PC and we know how the long term of that worked out. The problem here I don’t see Android vs iphone ending any differently.

    Apple gouging over idevices could be that Apple also sees the writing on the wall and are aware they need to build a survival war chest of money.

    DrLoser there are so many trends that line up here its not funny.

    Basically margin on hardware sales being high is a worry is this going to cause Apple to suffer the same problem they had happen years ago in the Desktop market. Current behavior of the market says yes.

  11. DrLoser says:

    And while you chew that over, oiaohm

    If the rich were not using android the most expensive android phones would not sell.

    This is obviously a related point. Do you have any evidence that the most expensive android phones are selling, to any great degree?

    No fault of yours, but your Indian cite doesn’t actually mention sales figures, does it?

  12. DrLoser says:

    Remember more powerful the device the more complex applications you can run. So Apples massive profit gain from hardware is a double sided sword..

    This is actually an interesting thought, oiaohm, and it bears discussion. (Politely, if you please.)

    I’m not sure it applies to smart-phones. Are there any apps out there in proprietary (or otherwise) stores that require this extra power? (Define power as you will. Even battery life is acceptable.) Do any of them state “must be run on four cores or more?” I’m not sure. I don’t know. But I doubt it.

    It certainly applies to desktop computers. For example, you wouldn’t want to run my company’s flagship roof designing software on anything other than top-end hardware. But I don’t think this carries over to phones — I don’t currently see a class of phone application that can differentiate “phone power” to this degree. Phones do video streaming, perhaps over 4G … that’s about as tough as the hardware requirements get at the moment.

    You might just be looking at the smart-phone market the wrong way. It isn’t segmented by “power,” unless I’m mistaken. It’s segmented by fashion, by bling, by availability on a contract with a provider, arguably by quality of manufacturing.

    Consequently, the fact that the consumer can “save” $400 by not buying an iPhone frankly doesn’t mean very much, on these terms. They’re not going to invest that extra $400 in a Samsung (say) with extra “power.” They don’t need that power. They have no use for it.

    Naturally, they might just choose to pocket that $400. But that’s a completely different argument, and it doesn’t seem to mirror the current state of the smart-phone market.

  13. oiaohm says:

    Common, sensible people consider “powerful” something that is actually productive.
    Deaf Spy that is the case.
    http://www.gsmarena.com/htc_one_%28m8%29-6074.php
    http://www.gsmarena.com/apple_iphone_5s-5685.php
    Notice here same kind of cost in phones.

    Yes the android has more powerful cpu it also has longer battery life on talk and standby. Why because you in fact got a bigger battery as well.

    A flat phone is 100 percent not productive. Video on camera does 1080p@60fps on the android and only 1080p@30fps on the iphone.

    Yes the HTC is true 1080p screen where iphone is not.

    Deaf Spy so the Android does not have as high as mark up as the iphone but it landing a more powerful device in users hands. Happens to be more powerful in ways that are useful like bigger batteries.

  14. dougman says:

    *Rolls Eyes*

    Oh wise one, please explain: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Android_(operating_system)#Linux_kernel

    Perhaps you could update the wiki as well.

    Eh.

  15. Deaf Spy says:

    the reality is consumer spends same money on an android device and gets a more powerful device

    No such reality, Fifi. For common, sensible people “powerful” never means more cores, higher frequencies, higher benchmarking result and other synthetic bullshit. Common, sensible people consider “powerful” something that is actually productive.

    Proof? The place money go to.

    Ah, and btw, even Windows phone has higher money revenue than Android, when considered as revenue share per market share. Sad, isn’t it?

  16. Deaf Spy says:

    What does that have to do with Linux? Not a damn thing!!

    I don’t have a clue, Doguie. It is definitely not I who claims that Android is Linux, and any Android achievement magically translates into a Linux achievement.

  17. oiaohm says:

    Deaf Spy android profit per Unit is not always low. Lets pretend the most expensive android phones don’t exist.
    http://www.droidtipstricks.com/2014/08/most-expensive-android-smartphones-in-world.html.

    If the rich were not using android the most expensive android phones would
    not sell.

    Apple is only 10 percent of the market. Ok they might be making 60 to 70 percent of the profit. But is this good if the reality is consumer spends same money on an android device and gets a more powerful device.

    Remember more powerful the device the more complex applications you can run. So Apples massive profit gain from hardware is a double sided sword.

    http://techcrunch.com/2014/04/15/google-play-still-tops-ios-app-store-downloads-and-now-narrowing-revenue-gap-too/

    Also the idea of high profit on a iOS device might change. Every year the difference has been changing in the Android favor. Yes Android apps are growing in revenue income each year faster than iOS.

    So long term advantage for Apple of app sales and ad revenue is questionable. Interesting is the more mature Android is in the market the more likely that Android users will start buying applications. So is application sales nothing more than market maturity??? If that is the case the difference could be just Apples head start.

  18. dougman says:

    I do say that Android will continue to outpace iOS, which is the brunt of Roberts article and the detractors that anonymously come here, will argue with anyone till the cows come home.

    http://www.bizreport.com/2015/01/research-shows-2014-android-mobile-app-sales-growth-signific.html

    http://adtmag.com/articles/2015/01/14/android-overtakes-ios.aspx

  19. dougman says:

    Re: Ah, btw, “Wintel” has never, ever been interested in poor masses. They are interested in rich masses, where they are the king and queen and all the princes and princesses of revenue.

    I think someones judgement is clouded by dollar signs.

  20. dougman says:

    Re: iOS brings the king’s share of mobile monetarization for both app sales and ad revenue, and margin on hardware sales.

    What does that have to do with Linux? Not a damn thing!!

  21. Deaf Spy says:

    Ah, btw, “Wintel” has never, ever been interested in poor masses. They are interested in rich masses, where they are the king and queen and all the princes and princesses of revenue.

  22. Deaf Spy says:

    The rich are using Android/Linux and offering it to the poor of the world who are embracing it.

    No, they are not. The rich are using iOS. iOS brings the king’s share of mobile monetarization for both app sales and ad revenue, and margin on hardware sales. Fact.

    Android wins on the poorest – cheap Chinese devices under $99, which bring neither CPC revenue, nor CPI revenue, neither conversions, nor sales on mobile market.

  23. Deaf Spy wrote, of FLOSS, “You cannot transfer way of living from the poor to the rich. You can do only the reverse by making the poor people richer.”

    That’s kind of silly. The rich are using Android/Linux and offering it to the poor of the world who are embracing it. The rich have been profiting from */Linux for decades now and loving it. One doesn’t have to be poor to use FLOSS but it’s easier to use FLOSS when you are poor. That’s why a billion people started using FLOSS last year on Android/Linux devices. There will likely be another billion this year. Wintel never was so available to the masses.

  24. dougman says:

    WTf does politics have to do with Android and Linux?

    Are saying Linux = Communism or perhaps Open Source = Communism?? In either case, you can read this: http://blogs.msdn.com/b/dotnet/archive/2014/11/12/net-core-is-open-source.aspx

    The only entity that ever stated that Linux = Communism was Microsoft and it seems that perhaps they are changing their stance to a slight degree.

    Lets get one thing straight, the Web owes its existence to open source: Both the first text browser and the first graphical browser, Mosaic, were open-source projects. If it weren’t for free open-source software, companies like Amazon, Google, and Yahoo!—all of which run Linux—might never have got off the ground.

  25. Deaf Spy says:

    Pogson, I still recall how communists taught their children that the Worker Revolution would spread from the poor countries to the rich, and Socialism / Communism would conquer the world. Eventually, it turned the other way around, leaving a handful miserable spots like North Korea starve to extinction.

    You fall in the same misconception. You cannot transfer way of living from the poor to the rich. You can do only the reverse by making the poor people richer.

  26. dougman says:

    Re: ANDROID IS NOT DESKTOP LINUX!

    #1 All caps is retarded
    #2 That is the stupidest comment ever
    #3 Here is a another comment: Windows is NOT Tablet NT

    See, that doesn’t make sense either, as Linux is not individually segregated by application or use. Linux can be adapted to run on anything!

  27. oiaohm says:

    http://www.pcworld.com/article/2152540/android-on-the-big-screen-we-chew-up-and-spit-out-three-jelly-bean-all-in-one-pcs.html

    Ram no even Tron statement
    Read my lips: ANDROID IS NOT DESKTOP LINUX!
    Is getting a little bit iffy. Yes now that we have Android Desktop computers. That is still Linux in a Desktop computer.

    GNU/Linux is 100 percent sure not Android maybe. Or X11/Linux is 100 percent not Android. Yet everyone someone using GNU/Linux some idiot comes out the wood work and complains.

    Early Debian project lead was smart enough to see this problem coming. So lead the the development of the GNU/Linux term.

    GNU/Linux is 100 percent sure not Android maybe
    You are going to ask about this maybe. Please remember sailfish OS and Ubuntu touch OS both that are GNU/Linux both have been demoed running Android applications. Yes by basically cgrouping android envornment inside. Both use drivers designed for android to run their graphical environments on top of.

    What is desktop Linux and what is android is becoming a very blurred mess of lack of separation.

  28. ram says:

    tron says Android is not desktop Linux, well that statement as it stands is correct. Android is a form of tablet/smarphone/touchscreen Linux which can conveniently be developed for on other Linux platforms which usually are desktop/workstation versions of Linux.

    Desktop has come to mean a user interface involving a qwerty keyboard and a mouse. Touchscreens, although they can be quite large in the case of media centers and point of sales devices, are not generally thought of as “Desktop”.

  29. tron says:

    StatCounter Global StatsTop Operating Systems Per Country, W03 2015Source: StatCounter Global Stats – OS Market Share

  30. tron says:

    Read my lips: ANDROID IS NOT DESKTOP LINUX!

  31. ram says:

    dougman is right! Anybody who can program can write Android applications. Porting over other Linux applications to the Android user interface is usually straightforward, with most changes having to do with the use of a touch screen. The real reason the various flavors of Linux are taking over all platforms from smartphones to supercomputers is Linux has an army of developers, far more than any single company will ever be able to afford.

  32. dougman says:

    Android isn’t Linux? The brevity of the trolls statement is analogous to stating that Windows is not NT!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Android_(operating_system)#Linux_kernel

    All of Android (that is, is the operational system) is open. The only apps (AFAIK) Google is restricting are the Google branded ones, which makes sense. If you want your Android distribution to ship with Google services (Play store, Plus, Maps, Hangouts, etc.) enabled, or use the Google brand (Chrome, Gmail, etc.), you must abide to their rules.

  33. DrLoser says:

    I’ve seen the source code.

    Basically, Robert, you’ve seen the source code of AOSP. Nobody much uses AOSP as an independent platform.

    Every single last one of Google’s Android apps is “closed source.” Have you been able to check out the code of any of them?

    Oh, and considering that one of the major defining characteristics of “a red-haired man” is that he is possessed of a copious amount of freely-examinable “red hair,” I suspect that you didn’t really want to draw a comparison between a red-haired man and Gnu/Linux/Android.

    To anybody examining Android from the outside, the “red hair” in question is practically invisible.

  34. tron wrote, “ANDROID IS NOT LINUX”.

    Of course it’s not, just as a red-haired man is not a red hair. Android is a */Linux OS however. I’ve seen the source code.

  35. tron says:

    Read my lips: ANDROID IS NOT LINUX. And another thing: Why do lump smartphones, ARM tablets, game consoles, and desktop PCs in the same category? Is it to make Linux look good? Call it whatever you want, but I call it ‘evangelism’. Also, here’s an updated map: http://gs.statcounter.com/#all-os-ww-weekly-201503-201503-map Eight countries went from Androi(not Linux) to Windows 7.

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