Sad News! ;-)

Digitimes, out of Taiwan, is always watching the markets for electronics, particularly PCs, components and optical devices.“Intel’s Skylake-based processors, originally expected to launch in early third-quarter 2015 to support the release of Windows 10-based notebooks, may not become available until the end of the third quarter or early fourth-quarter 2015. The delay is expected to hurt demand for Windows 10 notebooks.

Windows 10-based notebooks are already facing many negative factors that could impact their shipments in 2015: most enterprises are expected to finish their PC replacement by the end of 2014 after Microsoft terminated support for Windows XP; Microsoft will offer free upgrade to Windows 10 for existing Windows 8/8.1 notebooks; and Windows 10 lacks attractive features.”
They have spies in lots of businesses so their diagnosis is valuable. Folks who depend on Wintel for a living will take an unwelcome hit.

While these details are important clues to what’s happening, the big picture is that the tail is no longer wagging the dog. In the “good old days”, M$ would make a phone call to Intel or have a meeting or utter a threat to Intel and Intel would fall in line as would all the OEMs. Now the whole supply chain only considers M$’s wishes if they’re not busy doing something else… They are tired of tiny margins and restrictions on what they can do to distinguish their products. They are demanding to be paid to install that other OS. They are often installing other operating systems or shipping products with no operating system. OEMs can’t wait for Wintel to get its act together. The OEMs have huge costs whether or not Wintel has a product ready on time.

So, XP is dead, “7” is dying, “8” is a zombie, and “10” is vapourware with nowhere to call home. M$ continues layoffs. POOF! It all falls down. In the meantime Google and the OEMs will crank out many millions of ChromeBooks. Canonical, Linpus, RedHat, Suse… and the OEMs will crank out many millions of GNU/Linux PCs. Several OEMs will crank out many millions of GNU/Linux thin clients. Android/Linux will reverberate with another billion or so units of small cheap computers(tablets, smartphones). This looks like good news to me.

See Skylake processor delay to weaken Windows 10 notebook demand.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
This entry was posted in technology and tagged , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

12 Responses to Sad News! ;-)

  1. Deaf Spy says:

    Does anyone believe PCs are dying at a reduced rate?
    Pogson, you forget that PCs are aging at a reduce rate nowadays. Face it, last years the serial performance of CPUs hasn’t improved much. Concurrency is not helping much with the desktop: 3 x 1 GHz < 1 x 3 GHz, and most desktop apps are using concurrency just to make the UI more responsive, little else. Few areas benefit from concurrency: video processing and media in particular.

    All general software is simply happy with 10-year old hardware. There is little incentive for people to upgrade anymore. That is why XP still works, and why 7 still works. Even Vista still works.

    Today people change PCs mostly when the PC actually dies. 20 years ago people were changing PCs when their software was slow, and a new CPU was coming along.

  2. Deaf Spy wrote, “Nice guess. How come?”

    “Although shipments did not decline as much as feared, these preliminary results still show that 3Q14 was one of the weaker calendar third quarters on record in terms of sequential growth. The third quarter has historically been driven by back-to-school sales and renewed business purchasing, which were weaker than normal this year. The current growth of lower-priced systems, while encouraging in the short run, brings concern for the long term viability of vendors to adequately remain in the PC space.”

    See Global PC Shipments Exceed Forecast with Mild Improvement in Consumer Demand, While Apple Moves to #5 Spot

    In short, two years of declining shipments… Does anyone believe PCs are dying at a reduced rate? Do the maths. The “Improvement” these folks mention is not growth of shipments but reduced decline of shipments. 1.4 million fewer units shipped this Q3 than last year. Meanwhile, ChromeBooks and thin clients and GNU/Linux shipments are growing.

    Shipments to USA did increase 700K units but more ChromeBooks than that shipped so those weren’t Wintel units…

  3. Deaf Spy says:

    The share of desktop units is unknowable but we could guess that shipping units are not replacing the units that are dying.
    Nice guess. How come? 🙂

  4. Deaf Spy wrote, “Fact is, that Windows still has 90% of the desktop.”

    That’s not a fact at all. That’s a delusion, “a misleading of the mind”.
    Statcounter, DESKTOP October 2014
    MacOS/X 9.13%
    GNU/Linux 1.41%
    ChromeOS 0.27%
    Then there is Unknown and Other which may or may not be M$’s.

    Now, I know that MacOS is not 9% of desktops but StatCounter measures page-views/usage… so M$ is less than 90% by their accounting.

    The share of desktop units is unknowable but we could guess that shipping units are not replacing the units that are dying. There are about 1.5billion legacy PCs on Earth and M$ is shipping on at most 280million per annum so the PCs are aging rapidly. That’s five years of full production to replace them all. I think many will not be replaced, raising GNU/Linux share dramatically as it gets a few percent of production and some replacement of OS as well. I worked in schools where the average age of a PC was over 6 years old and the minimum age was about six years before any new PCs were bought. All but one or two ran GNU/Linux when I retired. The PCs at another school where I worked are 8 years old and going strong.

  5. Deaf Spy says:

    Pogson wrote: StatCounter shows “7” peaked at 56.84% in 2013. It’s declining now. That’s their desktop-only stat, too.

    Omg, Pogson, 7 is a desktop-only OS. It is not even designed for tablets or mobiles, never intended for such. Sure, it supports gestures and touch, but that is for the touch-enabled screens, not for tablets and mobiles.

    Yes, the income from the client division is down. So what. Who cares, when the net result is still positive, and when the other divisions go way up and up?

    Fact is, that Windows still has 90% of the desktop. Fact is that 8.1 is growing, despite all the crap on it. Fact is that XP is dying, and fact is that Linux can’t make any gains from that. Again.

  6. Deaf Spy wrote, “At the same time, Linux keeps lingering at about 1.5 – 1.6%”

    And what was it 5 years ago? 0.72%

    StatCounter shows “7” peaked at 56.84% in 2013. It’s declining now. That’s their desktop-only stat, too.

    Deaf Spy also wrote, “All is good for MS on desktop, it seems. Financial results prove it, too.”

    Do you mean this:“Three Months Ended September 30, 2014 Revenue Devices and Consumer Licensing” down $391 million…? That is good, if you ask me, but M$’s sycophants must surely hate that, the end of monopoly.

  7. Deaf Spy says:

    Sorry, it seems I can’t count to five reliably. Time to get some coffee.

  8. Deaf Spy says:

    The numbers at NetMarketshare paint a slightly different picture. There we can see three trends:
    1. Windows 7 goes slowly up from 50.06% in May to 53.05% in October 2014.
    2. Windows 8.1 goes up from 6.35% in May to 10.92% in October 2014.
    3. Surprisingly, Windows 8 stays basically flat at less than 6%.
    4. Windows XP quickly gets obsolete, going down to 17.18% in October.
    5. At the same time, Linux keeps lingering at about 1.5 – 1.6%.

    All is good for MS on desktop, it seems. Financial results prove it, too.

  9. ram says:

    The Microsoft UEFI thing really really hurt the so called OEMs. Then Intel, who is a real OEM, selling boxen and motherboards directly without UEFI or with UEFI that was easily disabled, handed the “repackage and brand” OEMs their heads.

  10. DrLoser says:

    I give M$ 5-years at best…

    A valuable tip, that, Dougie. Could you look into the future of annuities for me? I am, as you know, partial to gaz-de-serpent.

    I’m thinking of investing in moonshine. No, not the spirit — actual moonshine. It’s like real estate, I believe: they’re not making any more of it …

  11. DrLoser says:

    Oh, darn!

    That twenty year old Microsoft/Intel Conspiracy failed yet again!

    Really, you have to wonder what the Masters of the Universe are doing these days.

    Probably off playing bridge with their billionaire buddies, and funding the extirpation of malaria.

    I mean, what’s wrong with investing a very small part of that ill-gotten wealth in campaigning against, say, systemd?

    Or, just to take an example from your back-catalogue, Robert, campaigning against slavery in Saudi. Gates is obviously not up to it. Can I impress on you the urgent need to enlist, say, Bob Young or Marc Ewing as contributors?

    For the greater good of Man, the pre-requisite is that individual men step forward. Richard Stallman said that, I believe.

    Oops, just checked. Richard Stallman doesn’t give a shit.

  12. dougman says:

    Microsoft … Intel … subsidies … Windows 8 … Nadella … shifted the focus … selling software licenses to selling cloud subscriptions … Nadella … admitted … Microsoft’s … business model …disrupted by companies

    Condensing two articles into pertinent information, the future of Win-Dohs is rather bleak. I give M$ 5-years at best, as pushing the same ol’ dog$hit is not working anymore. The only market they own is the Desktop, but everywhere else you look M$ is a loser.

Leave a Reply