Things That Make Me Go “Hmmm…” – Weather

I was checking the weather. I need rain to fall on my yard or I am going to have to drag out those hoses again…“Likelihood of Precipitation (LOP) as described in the public forecast as a chance of measurable precipitation for a period of time.
Nil: 0%
Low: 40% or below
Medium: 60% or 70%
High: Above 70%”
I was surprised to find that Environment Canada doesn’t think an estimate of a probability could be between 40 and 60%… Hmmm…

My yard has a “medium” chance of getting wet tonight. Clearly, that’s better than 40% or even 50%. I wonder what term they use when the computer spits out 50%. Blank? Unknown? Impossible? Imaginary? Just wondering… As someone who values symmetry and loving the beauty of a normal distribution of natural phenomenae, I think symmetry might help, like making the ranges equal in size, e.g.

Category Range
low p < ⅓
medium ⅓ ≤ p ≤ ⅔
high p > ⅔

That would naturally eliminate a “forbidden zone” of probability, too. Am I just being picky? Should I require more precision for my tax-dollars?

See Winnipeg, MB – 24 Hour Forecast – Environment Canada.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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One Response to Things That Make Me Go “Hmmm…” – Weather

  1. Mats Hagglund says:

    I reserve tons of rainwater during the spring time. Now after 3 weeks of dry hot weather there is use for that water indeed. At least i got excellent quality 150 kilos strawberries (because lots of sunshine) and lots of sallad too.

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