Maxing-out Production Of Smartphones

I have for years touted small cheap computers as the future of IT“China-based vendor Huawei Device has set a goal of shipping 80 million smartphones globally in 2014, growing 53.8% on year

In 2013, Huawei Device shipped 52 million smartphones, up 62.5% on year”
but I never imagined they would so rapidly eclipse the ubiquity and power of legacy PCs. The small size, low price, adequate performance and an abundance of software applications has allowed Android/Linux on ARM smartphones to blow away all my expectations.

The love of mobility and capabilities of the devices have made them nearly ubiquitous. At these rates of production, nearly everyone on the planet who wants one will have it in 2014 or 2015. The installed base already eclipses the legacy PC. 3Q13 Shipments
Further, the installed base could grow to the point where the replacement production could continue to eclipse the legacy PC forever. It’s not that legacy PCs will disappear but they will become a specialty device for folks who need more CPU/storage/throughput than a small fanless device can manage. The legacy PC may become rare within a few years as folks realize they don’t need/want one or can get the grunt stuff done on a server.

Flash back to the early days of the PC. Businesses needed them as word-processors and calculators and databases and communications devices. Ordinary consumers didn’t need them at all until e-mail and the web took off, except for gaming. Now, the consumer can get all he/she needs from these small cheap computers. There are a lot more consumers than business-employees. The small cheap computers can be connected to large/multiple screens, keyboards and pointing devices to do a lot of the work businesses do on servers these days. So, the Wintel empire will shrink to a fraction of its present size. 8 quarters of declining shipments of legacy PCs shows that. M$’s desperate attempts to produce small cheap computers and still claim a tax shows that. M$’s constant advertising shows that.

The world has entered an entirely new phase with an abundance of choices and competition for consumers’ business and for businesses’ business. It will be interesting to see whether the smartphone will do it all or tablets will become giant smartphones or smartphones will dock into whatever. It’s all good.

See Huawei Device aims to ship 80 million smartphones in 2014.

See Record Smartphone Shipments Grow the Market 38.8% in the Third Quarter of 2013, Making Way For A Strong Holiday Quarter, According to IDC

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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4 Responses to Maxing-out Production Of Smartphones

  1. oiaohm says:
    Android hardware vendors have their own app stores as well.

    kurkosdr Yes your second post you hit the nail on the head but as normal you are badly wrong. Google App store access is not free for OEM’s. Accessing the Amazon app store is not free either. Google App store access requires certification. Google does not need large income to cover costs.

    But there is a limit to how much Google change change. Samsung has released phones without any Google applications before. Samsung not using Google default applications lead to some major arguments with google. Samsung major point was over the idea of future charging. If Google decides to lift the price in future it will be breach of contract with Samsung.

    Yes Microsoft is free to lift the price in future. Google is not free to lift the price. Google apply too much pressure Google will lose their biggest OEM Samsung. Samsung has zero issues with walking away from Google they have done it before in past models to prove point.

    Google spends way less than 1 billion on Android. Google is recovering all the cost of development and making a profit from Android. Remember due to open source Samsung and other OEM’s directly work on the Android source code as well.

    Of course google does have to be effective on costs. Android browser disappears replaced by chrome/chromium browser since it was excess spending.

  2. kurkosdr wrote, “they are dumping”

    Nope. M$ is not dumping, selling products below the cost of production, where they have to make the hardware too. Charging $0 to OEMs is just a cost of advertising to M$ as it is to Google. Google is spending ~$1billion per annum making Android/Linux. They get their product in ~500million more devices per annum. That’s $2 per device, a bargain.

  3. kurkosdr says:

    And before someone says “Android will always be free because open-source, while WP is closed-source” let me tell you that Google can charge for GMS apps (aka Google Mobile Services apps, aka the Google apps). Which you need to build a competitive phone, unless you are already a content seller like Amazon. And the Honeycomb experience shows they CAN go completely closed-source if they want to. They can start charging anytime they want, as can Microsoft start charging again for devices under 9inch. They just don’t want to because they are dumping.

  4. kurkosdr says:

    ” M$’s desperate attempts to produce small cheap computers and still claim a tax shows that.”

    Microsoft doesn’t charge a Windows license for computers with screen sizes under 9 inches. What you don’t get is that if Google can do product dumping with Android, aka spend money to develop it but give it for free, MS can do the same. Sure both make money from store sales, but generally they are dumping.

    I hope Windows Phone gains marketshare. Android is nothing but a pit of problems. Malware in the Play Store, poor battery life, newly installed apps are slow even on powerful phones (till the dalvik cache builds up for that app the CPU has to transform bytecode to native and execute at the same time) and caches like thumbnail cache and google maps cache grow infinately eating up space (again search for “dcim thumbdata3 huge”). MS please provide some competition to Google!

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