As usual, Gartner is making predictions. Clearly, they predict huge share for Android/Linux in 2014. That’s consistent with everything I know. Android/Linux is everywhere, every market, every price-range, and every format. Where I disagree with Gartner is on the growing shipments of that other OS, you know, M$’s expensive crapware. How do they figure M$ is growing on client OS shipments at all? No one likes 8.x very much. M$ is even paying people to use it… Is that predicted to work? I don’t see how. Paying people to use it is an admission that it doesn’t sell on its merits, not something that will work with consumers. Businesses might buy it but those businesses use XP and 8.x is the most different OS on the planet. According to StatCounter, after more than a year on the market, 8.x has only 12.2% share of desktop OS. That’s less than 1% share growth per month, probably only 150 million PCs in the past year. That’s half what M$ used to sell. “7”? That won’t even run on a lot of hardware that XP uses.
People don’t like to change. If forced by malware and hardware incompatibility many will move XP to virtual machines or go to GNU/Linux. See? That “others” category is huge and growing but Gartner predicts “others” will lose shipments. No way. “Others” includes GNU/Linux which is growing rapidly in government, business and with consumers. StatCounter showed GNU/Linux desktops at 0.95% a year ago and 1.16% today, 12.2% growth, while M$’s SEC filings show they are shipping fewer units. “Three months ended December 31, 2013 compared with three months ended December 31, 2012
D&C Licensing revenue decreased $319 million or 6%, due mainly to lower revenue from licenses of Windows and Consumer Office, offset in part by increased Windows Phone revenue. Retail and other sales of Windows declined $264 million or 69%, due mainly to the release of Windows 8 in the prior year. Windows OEM revenue declined $109 million or 3%, reflecting a 12% increase in OEM Pro revenue, offset by continued softness in the consumer PC market.” That’s reality, not an estimate.