Operating Systems, According To Gartner – 2013-2015

As usual, Gartner is making predictions. Clearly, they predict huge share for Android/Linux in 2014. That’s consistent with everything I know. Android/Linux is everywhere, every market, every price-range, and every format. Where I disagree with Gartner is on the growing shipments of that other OS, you know, M$’s expensive crapware. How do they figure M$ is growing on client OS shipments at all? No one likes 8.x very much. M$ is even paying people to use it… Is that predicted to work? I don’t see how. Paying people to use it is an admission that it doesn’t sell on its merits, not something that will work with consumers. Businesses might buy it but those businesses use XP and 8.x is the most different OS on the planet. According to StatCounter, after more than a year on the market, 8.x has only 12.2% share of desktop OS. That’s less than 1% share growth per month, probably only 150 million PCs in the past year. That’s half what M$ used to sell. “7”? That won’t even run on a lot of hardware that XP uses.

People don’t like to change. If forced by malware and hardware incompatibility many will move XP to virtual machines or go to GNU/Linux. See? That “others” category is huge and growing but Gartner predicts “others” will lose shipments. No way. “Others” includes GNU/Linux which is growing rapidly in government, business and with consumers. StatCounter showed GNU/Linux desktops at 0.95% a year ago and 1.16% today, 12.2% growth, while M$’s SEC filings show they are shipping fewer units. “Three months ended December 31, 2013 compared with three months ended December 31, 2012
D&C Licensing revenue decreased $319 million or 6%, due mainly to lower revenue from licenses of Windows and Consumer Office, offset in part by increased Windows Phone revenue. Retail and other sales of Windows declined $264 million or 69%, due mainly to the release of Windows 8 in the prior year. Windows OEM revenue declined $109 million or 3%, reflecting a 12% increase in OEM Pro revenue, offset by continued softness in the consumer PC market.”
That’s reality, not an estimate.

Gartner Says Worldwide Traditional PC, Tablet, Ultramobile and Mobile Phone Shipments Are On Pace to Grow 6.9 Percent in 2014.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
This entry was posted in technology and tagged , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

32 Responses to Operating Systems, According To Gartner – 2013-2015

  1. oiaohm says:

    Yonah some people get lucky. Lets take an atm. Operational life is 13 years. Average business machine is 8 years.

    Is all your hardware operating properly. I know one of my friend who updated a 4 year old machine to Windows 8 who got very upset when he found out he only had compatibility mode video drivers and had lost 150 frames per second off his favourite game. He is back using Windows 7.

    The their are people who in time after a Windows 8 or 8.1 upgrade will lose data due to missing motherboard drivers Yonah. Particular Sata controller drivers so sata controller fails to check if drive has written all data before powering off.

    There is ouch to installing Windows or Linux on incompatible hardware.

  2. dougman says:

    Post your specs..

    The minimum requirements for Windows 8 states 1GHZ, 2GB ram and 20GB of drive space for a 64-bit machine. I’d like to see someone try and use it.

    You could possibly install it, but performance will not be that optimized and you will face performance drags which are a bit annoying.

    See the minimum system requirements only tell part of the story, though, and there’s a wide gap between a system that can install Windows 8 and a system that can run it.

    I get asked about Windows 8 now and then and here are the *actual* specifications that I give for 64-bit systems that customers want.

    Intel Core 2 Duo, dedicated GPU, 4GB ram and a decent SSD

    Anyways, my Slackware, Debian and my Mint boxes all run extremely well, no Win-DOHs here.

  3. Yonah says:

    Dougman: “Windows forces its users to continuously upgrade its hardware.”

    I beg to differ. My current PC turns 4 years old next month. Though I updated to Windows 8 awhile ago, it required absolutely no hardware upgrades at all. None. Zero.

  4. dougman says:

    This machine I got free, upgraded the PSU and its been running just fine. Windows forces its users to continuously upgrade its hardware.

    Notice the uptime, 75 days and root partition size, 9G, you will not get that with Windows.

    dsmith@dsmith-OptiPlex-GX620 ~ $ inxi -F
    System: Host: dsmith-OptiPlex-GX620 Kernel: 3.8.0-36-generic i686 (32 bit) Desktop: Gnome Distro: Linux Mint 13 Maya
    Machine: System: Dell product: OptiPlex GX620
    Mobo: Dell model: 0F8098 Bios: Dell version: A05 date: 10/13/2005
    CPU: Dual core Intel Pentium D CPU (-MCP-) cache: 1024 KB flags: (lm nx sse sse2 sse3)
    Clock Speeds: 1: 2800.00 MHz 2: 2800.00 MHz
    Graphics: Card: NVIDIA GF108 [GeForce GT 430] X.Org: 1.11.3 driver: nvidia Resolution: 1680×1050@59.9hz
    GLX Renderer: GeForce GT 430/PCIe/SSE2 GLX Version: 4.4.0 NVIDIA 331.20
    Audio: Card-1: NVIDIA GF108 High Definition Audio Controller driver: snd_hda_intel Sound: ALSA ver: k3.8.0-36-generic
    Card-2: Intel 82801G (ICH7 Family) AC’97 Audio Controller driver: snd_intel8x0
    Card-3: Logitech driver: USB Audio
    Network: Card-1: Broadcom NetXtreme BCM5751 Gigabit Ethernet PCI Express driver: tg3
    IF: eth0 state: down mac: 00:14:22:48:f1:75
    Card-2: Qualcomm Atheros AR9485 Wireless Network Adapter driver: ath9k
    IF: wlan1 state: down mac: 64:66:b3:e3:96:f6
    Card-3: Realtek RTL8169 PCI Gigabit Ethernet Controller driver: r8169
    IF: eth1 state: up speed: 1000 Mbps duplex: full mac: 00:1b:2f:28:76:cc
    Drives: HDD Total Size: 500.1GB (34.3% used) 1: /dev/sda WDC_WD5003ABYX 500.1GB
    Partition: ID: / size: 14G used: 9.0G (71%) fs: ext4 ID: /home size: 445G used: 151G (36%) fs: ext4
    Info: Processes: 186 Uptime: 75 days Memory: 1963.0/3535.8MB Client: Shell inxi: 1.7.33

  5. oiaohm says:

    Most large enterprises don’t run stock Ubuntu images instead run there own custom internal versions. Also Linux Desktop is hardware extended life so its not like there is a huge profit to be made.

    wolfgang 10 percent of computers could come form recycling X windows machines. You are asking why no money showing up it makes sense. Remember Munich talking about extended hardware life, French police talk about the same thing.

    Like a geforce 8 card under Linux is going to have 13 years of driver updates. Linux updates for video cards stop when they start failing from physical faults.

  6. oiaohm says:

    wolfgang there is a big problem of course majority of XP site license is upgrade only. So if the primary license of the OEM is not installable the site license is also invalid. Welcome to ouch of multi stacked licenses.

    wolfgang 11 dollar video card from ebay have you ever aquire one. A brand new video card is 30 dollars with a min 12 months protection from defect. 11 dollar video card you barely have 30 days. By the analogue out of a video card in fact wears out. Older video cards don’t have modern day long life capacitors either. Yes video cards that support XP are coming up to their physical end of life.

    wolfgang just because you can buy something does not mean it will work for very long.

  7. wolfgang says:

    …red hat money…

    red hat is doing good, I agree, although stock dropped ton yesterday. investors not as pleased as Pogson maybe. ubuntu canonical not visible to public, so you just guessing about finances and strategy. not audited at all, so press release maybe rosy view, too.
    places that talk about money in business talk about linux servers windows servers, ibm servers, and unix servers. they talk about mac and windows pc, and even chromebook, but never talk about ubuntu computer. why is that? maybe not enough money to care. if 10% computers are ubuntu, money people should notice and make comment.

  8. wolfgang says:

    …oiaohm blah blah blah…

    you not have internet connection in tree you living in? go to http://www.ebay.com and type in video card. you say you are great typist so should not be so hard. see beaucoup video cards for sale. fix old xp for about $11.

    companies ones hanging on to xp and companies ones having site license too. activation just red herring. sorry joe.

  9. oiaohm says:

    wolfgang Microsoft proposed the idea of using a virtual machines to run old OS’s. The thing from the OEM hardware makers actions say they have taken this a little more serous-ally than Microsoft was hoping for.

  10. wolfgang wrote, “best statistic for business is money. if money going up, market getting bigger.”

    For a GNU/Linux only company, RedHat is doing rather well. They do desktops as well as servers. Canonical is doing well. Shuttleworth considers current deficits as investments and he’s staying the course. Canonical is not losing money because GNU/Linux is not selling but because Canonical is spending more than they take in, growing the business.

    Many companies do GNU/Linux as part of their business. Without a breakdown one can’t correlate how the bottom line goes with GNU/Linux. The fact that a lot of businesses are increasing their investment in GNU/Linux is a big hint. It is rare that a company drops GNU/Linux. Dell, for instance, is still cautious about GNU/Linux in North America but is selling tons of units in Asia. They’ve gone “private”…

    Quoting Canonical in 2013: “By 2014, it is estimated that 10% of PCs worldwide will ship with Ubuntu preinstalled. Moreover, Canonical is actively engaged with Tier 1 and Tier 2 handset OEMs at a technical level. These OEMs are currently evaluating the Ubuntu OS on their latest hardware.”

  11. oiaohm says:

    wolfgang I should have been more exact. On-line or phone activation. OEM XP copies in fact still require activation for all the whitebox OEM and most of the large OEM as well. XP volume license of some form is the only forms that don’t require activation.

    Yes OEM XP run for 90 days not activated then it self sabotages it self ruining its performance and other things. Lot of people run into this trouble when they reinstall.

    wolfgang video cards are a item that due how they work buying them second hand is not a good option. You will pay more for a second hard video card than a new one.

    The best answer will be install Xen or Ubuntu and run XP contained if hardware is modern enough to have virtualisation instructions. Issue here is Windows 7 generation hardware is also not supported by Windows 8 . So people with even a Windows 7 machine are going to find themselves trapped fairly soon as well.

    wolfgang video cards and harddrives are the first two items to die in old hardware. This is why you cannot get them in the second hand market well at all. Basically you are joke saying a XP owner would be able to acquire a suitable card from scrapheap or in the second hand market.

  12. wolfgang says:

    …xp activation…

    did not notice have to activate on-line. think not always since OEM versions run without any on-line connection needed. know that for fact.

    rest of worry is trash. if xp already running, just keep using until hardware break and then put in dust bin. if video card break, get used one on ebay or out of junk heap. you make lot of what-if problems that never happen.

  13. wolfgang says:

    …explain stats…

    dunno. hard to ever tell what is being counted with on-line stats. seem to be counting usage but not counting big uses like googles or tweets or facebooks. those companies holding on to own secrets to use for themselves.

    whatever being counted, only sure that many more people using windows than linux. since don’t know what is counted, cannot care about result.

    best statistic for business is money. if money going up, market getting bigger. and vice-versa.

    when market get too small for big company, big company exit. wait for microsoft to exit to see if business that bad.

  14. dougman says:

    ‘Microsoft Money’ is a discontinued product. http://money.mvps.org/faq/article/632.aspx

    M$ has resorted to giving people money, $100 last I read, for people to buy Windows 8. Seems it’s not selling so well.

  15. oiaohm wrote, “wolfgang XP was the first Microsoft Windows to require product activation on-Line as well. So after it end of life it will be interesting to see if that keeps on working.”

    Interesting. If the world stubbornly resists “upgrading” M$ will either have to be DDOSed forever with zombie machines phoning home or issue one last update… They may also be stuck because a few will pay money per annum to keep the security updates coming. M$ may not be working for slave-wages doing that but they definitely will feel less love maintaining a dead OS. At some point they may have to pay the world to drop XP… There will be strained relationships all over. Many may come to realize the love they feel for XP is the same as that a hostage has for the abductor.

  16. oiaohm says:

    wolfgang XP was the first Microsoft Windows to require product activation on-Line as well. So after it end of life it will be interesting to see if that keeps on working.

    When a computer leaves a government department or equal location it is meant to be formatted and reinstalled. So population of XP might drop quickly if Microsoft turns off means to product activate.

  17. oiaohm says:

    wolfgang XP is not getting new driver support. So a dead video card XP will not be able to take a new video card as a replacement. Right? The answer is kinda wrong. The only way a person will be able to replace a video card under XP with a modern one will be to run XP inside a virtual machine solution like Xen or Kvm and use wrapper drivers.

    Windows 8.1 and Windows 7 are not getting proper driver support either. Of course wolfgang to a person like you who does not build PC for a living you don’t have the list of compatible hardware to build machines from. 4 years ago you could fairly much order anything new and be sure it properly compatible with Windows. Today not the case. There are new laptops with Windows 8.1 installed that when you look a little deeper in fact don’t have a full set of drivers and are not certified to run Windows 8 or 7 but are certified by the hardware maker to run Ubuntu with full driver support.

    Basically wolfgang if you did not have head in sand you would see a progressive proccess by hardware makers to no longer to invest in MS Windows support. Windows is going to have to face the same battle Linux has.

    MSN user is a minority. There is a fairly large percentage of sales around the world that are chrome os with very min returns.

  18. wolfgang wrote, “Pogson says statistics all wrong except where show growth in Linux”.

    Well, how do you explain that the stats all show huge growth in GNU/Linux over long periods of time but it doesn’t get above ~few percent globally? That’s mathematically impossible but that’s what they say. StatCounter, for instance, finally noticed that iOS was not a desktop OS and made it drop to zero without even a dent in the other curves. Magic?

  19. wolfgang says:

    …still mystery to me….
    Pogson says statistics all wrong except where show growth in Linux, dougman cite some unnamed blogger as proof, oiaohm think XP quit running like y2K did.
    maybe someone buying chromebook, maybe not. Forbes man wonder, too, see opinion at
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/ewanspence/2013/12/30/chromebook-sales-who-is-using-chrome-os-browser-share/
    worlfgang only know one person who buy chromebook. he return it when he could not get email from msn.com. ended up with dell laptop with windows 8. work ok. of course not sophisticated user like you guys.

    you should wait to see microsoft money drop like crazy and then crow about it. more likely to happen if you see it in forbes

  20. dougman, I’m in complete agreement with everything in that post, except the title, “Why Microsoft Windows Could be Obsolete by 2020 “

    M$ and all its software have been obsolete since ~2000 when I first tried GNU/Linux. M$ has offered the world nothing but pain, complexity, costs, fragility and lock-in ever since. The earlier people migrated away from M$ the happier they have been and the more money they had free to spend on hardware or other things that really helped them do what they needed done. The organizations that went from UNIX OS to GNU/Linux are laughing all the way to the bank. The organizations that went from UNIX OS to that other OS will eventually have to go to GNU/Linux or become obsolete themselves but that route costs five times as much for software. In the begining of M$’s GUI, the cost per machine was ~few % but now it’s ~100% per annum. M$ is like a drug dealer giving free samples of heroin in the parking lot of schools. Once addicted, it’s painful to escape and painful to feed the addiction. M$ doesn’t care how much pain it causes as long as the cash flows. The cash flow has peaked and declined for consumers but businesses are largely still addicted. I expect most organizations will escape in the next few years. Some will change drug dealers and go to Apple. Some will go to */Linux. Can you imagine the price the remaining few addicts will have to pay to support M$ in the manner to which it has become accustomed?

  21. wolfgang wrote, “how many years Linux been showing about 1% on charts?”

    How many years have the StatCounters of the world been changing the way they collect and display data?

    For all those years, GNU/Linux has been growing rapidly yet that’s not reflected in the web stats. When NetApplications was allowing examination of the region of Germany in which Munich was located, there was zero uptick in stats for GNU/Linux even when ~10K machines switched over. At the same time when ~10K machines at Google switched over, the stats for the whole USA swung. At the same time StatCounter showed not a blip. How is that possible? Is a PC in USA counted more than a PC elsewhere? Does Google have one IP-address per desktop? Do 10K PCs behind a firewall get counted as one? NetApplications no longer offers regional stats for $0…

    So, don’t assume GNU/Linux gets ~1% share of desktops. Don’t ask us why the stats-people give ~1%. Ask the stats-people. Canonical reports that they, alone, ship on 5% of legacy PCs. I can tell you that in every school where I installed GNU/Linux on PCs, the machines in a building all had the same IP address to the outside world. Were they counted as 1 machine? If 47 PCs checked the news or the weather, were they counted as 1 machine-page-view? Ask the stats-people.

  22. dougman says:

    http://blog.migrationking.com/2013/02/why-google-chromebooks-will-beat.html

    Damn fine read on what is currently occurring and where we end up.

  23. dougman says:

    Wolfie is an idiot….run away before you get banned with your worthless drivel. For nobody knowing what Linux is, you sure do. Are you saying you’re a nobody? I would agree with that assessment.

    Due note, that Chromebooks are Linux based personal computers and between Jan. and Nov. 2013 Chromebooks accounted for 9.6 percent share of U.S. sales of all tablets, notebooks, and desktop personal computers combined.

    Now you see M$ created the pawnbrokers ad. LOL…..

  24. oiaohm says:

    Heck there are a huge number of motherboards in systems shipping with Windows 8.1 that in fact only have compatibility drivers so features of 8.1 are disabled and there will be no driver updates. So broken from new.

  25. oiaohm says:

    wolfgang chrome books and chrome box’s are Windows free hardware.

    wolfgang does not change the fact that the stat collection methods you are referring to are buggy.

    wolfgang fun thing old OS’s find themselves unable to access websites and do other on-line transactions.

    People wanting to keep old computers running end up forced into trap. Either run LInux or Never connect it to the Internet.

    The hard reality for people wolfgang is how much hardware exists due to saturation now that cannot run Windows 8.1 or Windows 7 but can run current day Ubuntu or Debian.

  26. wolfgang says:

    …mystery….
    is oiaohm living in same tree as dougman or have tree of his own?
    don’t know what chrome book has to do with topic here, so he must be running low on ideas.
    people wanting to use old computer longer just use old computer longer. no need to change anything they think. maybe get new cell phone or fancy tablet instead of new pc if broke and can only get one or the other, but that is free market. always been the case.
    how many years Linux been showing about 1% on charts? Pogson bragging that is now 1.16% up from 0.95%, and same time laughing that windows 8 only at 12.2% up from zero. very interesting maths he do.

  27. oiaohm says:

    wolfgang you are running on empty. Chrome box http://www.techradar.com/news/computing/pc/asus-chromebox-mini-cloud-desktop-arrives-in-march-for-179-1221535

    The reality is starting to kick you http://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=MTY0NTg

    Yes sad but true Linux has longer driver support than Windows with updates. So those wishing to extend life of hardware is being pushed to Linux.

  28. wolfgang says:

    …what is pc?…

    dougman live in tree. never see im a pc, im a mac commercials. probably not have cable tv. all people know what is pc and what is mac. nobody know what is linux.

  29. dougman says:

    LOL…M$ Windows is NOT synonymous with the term “personal computers”. One can have a Linux PC, or even a OSX PC.

    So yes, lots and lots of PC’s accessing the Net these days.

  30. wolfgang says:

    …apples and oranges and more….

    units and revenues are not maybe same thing since other where is notice that windows price lower for cheap computers. anyway statistics are just score for last period.
    too much complaining about score keepers, too.
    no matter what say, when 100 pcs are used to access internet, 1 is Linux computer and 99 are something else, maybe windows maybe mac. Linux computer probably even bought with windows originally.

  31. ram says:

    Really these outfits like StatCounter and Gartner that claim to count usage are just advertising outlets for Microsoft and Apple. Webmasters who run a few servers know what people are using. They have their own statistics based on thousands (or more) views a day. Likewise the search engine operators, they see what is being used. There are reasons the “big boys” of the internet use Linux.

  32. dougman says:

    Windows 8, so great M$ pays you to obtain it. LOL…

    “Microsoft offers users $100 toward Windows 8 devices”

    NO, thanks I have my Slackware, Debian and Mint OS’s running just lovely.

Leave a Reply