“Samsung Electronics has set a goal of shipping seven million notebooks globally in 2014, a reduction of 41.67% from the 12 million units shipped in 2013, and will no longer launch conventional notebook models except Chromebooks in 2015” Samsung can afford whatever loss in revenue they take from dropping that other OS on notebooks. They will probably make up for it with increased margins on Chromebooks. According to IDC, Samsung and Lenovo had “double-digit” growth in USA thanks mostly to Chromebooks while other OEMs lost share or were flat. Expect other OEMs to make this move in 2014. 2013 opened a lot of eyes/minds. 2014 will involve a stampede to the exits.
M$’s 10Q: “D&C revenue increased $1.4 billion or 13%, reflecting the release of Xbox One, Surface 2, and Surface Pro 2, as well as continued adoption of other Windows-enabled devices. Consumer Office revenue was impacted by the transition of customers to Office 365 Home Premium. D&C gross margin decreased $959 million or 14%”I can see the surge in migrations from XP falling in 2014 and other operating systems like Android/Linux, GNU/Linux and Chrome OS/Linux being centres for growth for most OEMs of legacy PCs within a few years. This means the monopoly on retail shelves that propelled usage of that other OS will be dead in 2014. There are parts of the world where the monopoly is already dead but it will be a global phenomenon soon. There may not be a date set for the funeral but mid-2014 should be close. As we saw with M$’s move to ARM, M$ can compete on price/performance but monopoly is not any part of that. Expect to see M$’s margins plunge just to slow down the loss in market-share.