Dust In The Wind Of IT

2013 was a remarkable year. Clearly Wintel is dying or at least being cut down to size.

IC Insights reports “Total worldwide production value of electronic systems is projected to increase 4% in 2013 to $1.41 trillion and climb to about $1.74 trillion in 2017, which represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.0% from $1.36 billion in 2012, according to IC Insights’ new 2014 edition of IC Market Drivers—A Study of Emerging and Major End-Use Applications Fueling Demand for Integrated Circuits. The 475-page report shows cellphones overtaking standard personal computers (desktop and notebook PCs) as both the largest electronic systems market and the largest end-use application for ICs in 2013 for the first time ever.”

See Cellphones Pass PCs as Biggest Systems Market and IC User.

Check out some of the graphics there comparing size of market in $billions v CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate). On both counts, Wintel is sick.

They have more good news in Microprocessor Sales Growth Will Strengthen Slightly in 2014

Intel is also getting into a fight with microservers where ARM shines. Microservers shipments more than doubled last year and ARM is just getting going there. M$ is not going to be able to sell one licence per chip. When the hoster is counting every watt and penny, Wintel loses. With x86, servers became a commodity especially for huge web-farms but with ARM the supply of the commodity will spike and price will be key just as when x86 started taking share from Sparc.

All in all, the Wintel monopoly on IT is receding rapidly out the rear window and being obscured in the dust. That’s long overdue. The world has paid a premium for IT for decades because of Wintel and that money could have been better spent on improving software more rapidly or solving other real problems. The world never had a real problem making software except that the Wintel monopoly forced many to go down the drain with anything innovative. I think that’s done now.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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3 Responses to Dust In The Wind Of IT

  1. dougman says:

    The last CPU I have bought recently for a server is an i3, it not even runs >5% when checking parity. Looked into the XEON’s, but how often would I need its top-end processing power?

    For CPU-intensive tasks, such as torrents, video encoding or virtual machines perhaps a Xeon would be needed, but I am happy with processor that consumes less power.

    I think Intel has seen the light with their Avoton series. Its pretty awesome when one can stuff 368 cores and 1472GB worth of ram in a 2U server chassis.

  2. ram wrote, “I don’t know why you keep referring to “Wintel”.”

    I am mostly concerned that ordinary consumers are denied the choice of GNU/Linux by the old Wintel monopoly which at one time had ~95% of legacy PCs sold at retail. Most of the others were Macs, almost as bad… The folks who put GNU/Linux on servers know they have a choice and can take that choice or not. It’s a different business, forced slavery versus voluntary servitude… I would rather set the slaves free than argue with folks who locked themselves in and won’t accept the key.

    I often bought AMD CPUs just because they were a bit lower in cost but Beast’s CPU may well be the last x86-amd64 CPU I will ever buy because ARM can do everything I want now. It’s just a matter of waiting for the current chips to die. AMD lost my loyalty when they absolutely refused to make chips for small cheap computers. They had not much for thin clients and nothing for mobile for a long time. They were much abused by Intel but if AMD didn’t want my help ( I even wrote the management a letter or two…) I feel no sympathy. They produced good products and survived the anti-competitive actions of Intel only to throw away lots of good will. They could have dominated the ARMed SoC market if they had dived in a decade ago. Now they are just a spec drifting around in Intel and others’ wakes. AMD also pledged to open source all the drivers for ATI stuff. What happened to that? They practically forced me to use Nvidia’s chips on many motherboards. The largest GNU/Linux migration of my career had to fight through that mess. (*&@%&(#!!!

  3. ram says:

    I don’t know why you keep referring to “Wintel”. The vast majority of Intel computing chips are running Linux, not Microsoft. If any chip manufacturer is “in bed” with Microsoft it is AMD. Not a single motherboard with recent AMD chips runs Linux. AMD has trashed their sales to HPC users (which accounted for an enormous number of chips) due to their weak Linux support. They practically gave the business to Intel and NVidia yet a few years ago AMD was the dominant player.

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