2013 was a remarkable year. Clearly Wintel is dying or at least being cut down to size.
IC Insights reports “Total worldwide production value of electronic systems is projected to increase 4% in 2013 to $1.41 trillion and climb to about $1.74 trillion in 2017, which represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.0% from $1.36 billion in 2012, according to IC Insightsâ€™ new 2014 edition of IC Market Driversâ€”A Study of Emerging and Major End-Use Applications Fueling Demand for Integrated Circuits. The 475-page report shows cellphones overtaking standard personal computers (desktop and notebook PCs) as both the largest electronic systems market and the largest end-use application for ICs in 2013 for the first time ever.”
Check out some of the graphics there comparing size of market in $billions v CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate). On both counts, Wintel is sick.
They have more good news in Microprocessor Sales Growth Will Strengthen Slightly in 2014
Intel is also getting into a fight with microservers where ARM shines. Microservers shipments more than doubled last year and ARM is just getting going there. M$ is not going to be able to sell one licence per chip. When the hoster is counting every watt and penny, Wintel loses. With x86, servers became a commodity especially for huge web-farms but with ARM the supply of the commodity will spike and price will be key just as when x86 started taking share from Sparc.
All in all, the Wintel monopoly on IT is receding rapidly out the rear window and being obscured in the dust. That’s long overdue. The world has paid a premium for IT for decades because of Wintel and that money could have been better spent on improving software more rapidly or solving other real problems. The world never had a real problem making software except that the Wintel monopoly forced many to go down the drain with anything innovative. I think that’s done now.