A recent press-release from IDC:“United States â€“ With shipments totaling 17.1 million PCs in 4Q13, the U.S. market contracted by -1.6% from the same quarter a year ago. Consumers continued to take a wait-and-see approach, leading to delayed purchases. The migration from Windows XP to Windows 7 and 8 continued to drive some momentum in the enterprise sector and once again businesses fared better than consumers.”
That’s an amazing example of wishful thinking. Consumers are not “waiting”. They “see”. Almost everyone they know has an Android/Linux or iOS smartphone and/or tablet and these devices do what consumers want done with a quite different feature-set and lower prices if they want. Consumers in 2013 stampeded to get what they wanted, small cheap computers. They are not waiting for Intel or M$ to tell them what they want. The world can and does produce great IT products for consumers at every price/performance-point.
What is IDC smoking?
IDC got it right when they wrote, “Looking forward, the worldwide smart connected device space will continue to surge, with overall shipments surpassing 2 billion units by the end of 2015 with a market value of $735.1 billion. In terms of device mix, total PC shipments accounted for 28.7% of the smart connected device market in 2012 while tablets accounted for 11.8% and smartphones for 59.5%. By 2017, total PCs are expected to drop to 13%, while tablets and smartphones will contribute 16.5% and 70.5% respectively to the overall market. The shift in demand from the more expensive PC category to more reasonably priced smartphones and tablets will drive the average selling price (ASP) for the collective market from $462 in 2012 to $323 in 2017.” That was just a few months ago…