Ever the optimists, Gartner predicts some growth in units sold for M$’s client division in 2014. I have my doubts.
“In 2014, the worldwide tablet market is forecast to grow 47 percent with lower average selling prices attracting new users. Consumers continue to buy tablets as an additional device that they carry everywhere. According to a recent consumer study that Gartner conducted in the third quarter of 2013 across Brazil, China, France, Germany, Italy, the U.K., the U.S. and Japan, over two-thirds of tablets were used outside the home for activities such as vacation or concert. This is a similar pattern to that of smartphones as smaller form factors are driving more portability outside the home.
Worldwide shipments of traditional PCs are forecast to total 278 million units in 2014, a seven percent decline from 2013. Driven by an uptake in Windows ultramobiles, the PC market is estimated to remain flat in 2014 (0.2 percent), after a decline of 9.9 percent in 2013. The Gartner consumer survey showed that less than eight per cent of users would replace their laptop with a tablet”
I would bet another 8% would drop their traditional/legacy PC for their smartphone. Think of all those young people with a smartphone wired to their hips or stuck in a pocket… Are they really going to go out and buy a new legacy PC when it dies so they can walk extra distance even in their homes to “check their e-mail” or FaceBook? Nope. The folks who never use a spreadsheet or a keyboard just don’t need Wintel nor a legacy PC. That’s a lot, at least 15%. I know people who are on their third smartphone but have not replaced a legacy PC in many years.