Gartner Sees It. M$’s Installed Base Is Finally Shrinking

“The third quarter is often referred to as the ‘back-to-school’ quarter for PC sales, and sales this quarter dropped to their lowest volume since 2008. Consumers’ shift from PCs to tablets for daily content consumption continued to decrease the installed base of PCs both in mature as well as in emerging markets. A greater availability of inexpensive Android tablets attracted first-time consumers in emerging markets, and as supplementary devices in mature markets.”

see Gartner Says Worldwide PC Shipments in the Third Quarter of 2013 Declined 8.6 Percent.

Of course, they still consider a “PC”, personal computer, to be a small cheap computer running that other OS, but that too will soon pass. The reality is that a PC is just a small cheap computer and the market for them is becoming more diverse and more competitive with less influence from M$. For the greater certainty, the reader should not be confused that PCs running that other OS are being replaced on retail shelves with tablet PCs running that other OS, but Android/Linux, Free Software. “To date, Android has been far more successful than the Windows 8 platform”

see Tablet Shipments Slow in the Second Quarter As Vendors Look To Capitalize on a Strong Second Half of 2013, According to IDC.

IDC reports that the tablet market is 62% Android/Linux and 4% that other OS… The world of IT is becoming a better place. With M$ being at war with its OEMs, the folks who actually make PCs and bundle M$’s OS…, M$’s share is not going to increase any time soon.
“HP’s traditional highly profitable markets face significant disruption. Wintel devices are being challenged by ARM-based devices. … We are seeing profound changes in the competitive landscape. … Current partners like Intel and Microsoft are turning from partners to outright competitors.”

see Meg Whitman: Microsoft Is Our Competitor.

You can bet that when an OEM as powerful as HP confronts that reality creative solutions like shipping many more PCs with */Linux and selling them to retailers is right around the corner. OEMs like Positivo which is big in South America and Tongfang in China are doing that and growing like Topsy.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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8 Responses to Gartner Sees It. M$’s Installed Base Is Finally Shrinking

  1. oiaohm says:

    bw there is a problem here In Australia we don’t buy retail copies of Windows. OEM copies are on sale to everyone. So yes in Australia it is possible to use good parts and build machines cheaper than a dell or hp machine running Windows. If you are in a country where this is not possible you have a problem.

    Sorry Ubuntu was not used in Netbooks and other items back in Linux history. Android, Ubuntu and about 12 other distributions make up user friendly items.

    “day late and a dollar short” same logic applied to cars we would not have the auto-mobile today.

    bw the no one wanted it claim is not back by the List of Linux migrations. So there has been want of Linux on desktop since the year 2000. Volume of demand growth has been slow.

    Linux has always changed it form. Android will be evolved into something else.

    The battle is nowhere near over. The fact MS now see they have to support thin terminal to Android also means Microsoft supports thin terminal to sailfish OS, Tizen and Ubuntu in future. Why the Android runtime is coming part of those products.

    This is why everything is so interesting. The biggest road block to Linux is lack of paths to release closed source programs for it.

    Linux has now grown many paths. Steam, Android and a few others.

  2. bw says:

    same as no one needed a horse drawn carriage at the turn of the century

    Which century? If you are talking about 1900, you are pretty wrong since almost everyone was using a horse or walking then. If you are talking about 2000, the analogy is absurd. You should have paid a little more for an education. You may have saved some money, but it makes you a careless thinker.

  3. bw says:

    That’s why they had OEMs bundle their stuff, to make it hidden

    I think you have that backwards. The OEMs were the ones who wanted to pre-install Windows so that their customers didn’t have to wrestle with such details. If you only sell to dweebs, that is not a problem, but if you want to sell to artists and history majors, you have to do a lot of that work yourself and that means making the computer work out of the box. Until Ubuntu came along, Linux couldn’t do that and by the time that it could, no one wanted it.

    The business term for that is “a day late and a dollar short”. Look it up on Wikipedia.

    That put a bad crimp in the home-made market, too. If you add the cost of a retail copy of Windows to the hardware parts, you cannot come near the price of a new Dell or HP with the same specs. That was good business for the OEMs and they were the ones to want it.

  4. dougman wrote, “same as no one needed a horse drawn carriage at the turn of the century”.

    Hey! Some folks still use those just because they look good and the common folk can’t afford them… M$ may still be able to sell licences for their stuff to those to whom time and money are meaningless. That’s why they had OEMs bundle their stuff, to make it hidden. Heaven for me will be when OEMs generally refuse to bundle M$’s stuff. That would make M$’s stuff “after market” and strictly for adherents. I doubt we will ever reach that level of perfection in my lifetime but it definitely is possible. M$ can become its own OEM because it has a huge bank account but they will never get back all the shelf-space they have lost and will soon lose. I expect their share will continue to drift down towards ~25%. By then Gates and Ballmer will be long gone and M$ will be a normal business. The damage M$ has done will never be undone but the world of IT will heal and thrive without M$ in many ways. From now on, M$ will have to compete on price/performance. They still have customers who will accept higher prices but their numbers are dropping. Soon their bottom line will drop even faster. Their business-plan is unsustainable in a world where Free Software is accepted.

  5. oiaohm wrote, “The scary fact is the battle has not got savage yet.”

    That’s true in part. The unit-shipping-share thing is pretty savage. These guys all have salesmen working hard on OEMs and big buyers. They advertise to consumers as well. The thing is there are a lot of niches to fill. HP is in with business. Dell is in with consumers. Both want to be in with business… That will be savage sooner or later. Dell going private might give them some advantage but I don’t see it. The beauty of the current situation is that there are dozens of smaller players who can find or create new niches and we all benefit. It’s not savage to have folks shipping millions of units of new kinds into new places before the big guys wake up. It’s expanding into a vacuum. Without M$ dictating to the world, the world can change very quickly in diverse ways. No big guy will ever control it all again. There will be consolidation in a few years when everyone on the planet has all the IT they want because units shipped may plunge but I expect creative talent will find new ways to create the next consumer-product. Without Wintel being a bottleneck, the world of IT will become a productive garden instead of a violent jungle. The mice can multiply faster than the predators.

  6. oiaohm says:

    No this is a change in point of view. People forget what HP was.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PA-RISC Most people forget until 2008 HP was producing there own CPU designs.

    –Current partners like Intel and Microsoft are turning from partners to outright competitors.–

    The full quote is telling a very different story where will HP go from here. HP still do have teams that can do silicon design from scratch. Will they serous-ally return to making competing products against Intel. If we see HP taking out a Arm production license it will be a sign of really interesting life ahead.

    The scary fact is the battle has not got savage yet.

  7. dougman says:

    The world has come to realize that no one needs Windows, same as no one needed a horse drawn carriage at the turn of the century.

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