Forrester: Tablets and 2017

Forrester:

  • “In North America (US/Canada), 60% of online consumers will own a tablet by 2017, making it a majority device. In Europe, 42% of online consumers will own one. While penetration rates won’t reach even 25% in aggregate in the developing world by that date, tablets will reach majority status in leading Asian markets like Singapore and South Korea.”
  • “Total worldwide sales will reach 381 million units. A majority of these will be purchased by consumers, but enterprise purchases will make up 18% — having risen every year as a percentage of sales since the inception of the market.”
  • “The global installed base of tablets will reach 905 million. Tablets will be used by over one in eight people on earth, including 29% of online consumers globally.”

see Global Business And Consumer Tablet Forecast Update, 2013 To 2017.

There it is. The world can and does accept tablets as legitimate PCs capable of doing almost everything and being portable besides. That’s a natural result of Moore’s Law making tiny portable devices a possibility, and folks being absolutely uninterested in M$’s goal of one hard drive and one licence fee on every PC on the planet. For decades, M$ had coerced most OEMs and retailers to sell nothing but legacy PCs. That’s over according to Forrester, IDC, Gartner and anyone else who looks at the numbers. If the old locked-in OEMs would not ship enough small cheap computers new ones could emerge and get into the business quickly thanks to ARM and */Linux operating systems. ARM isn’t charging an arm and a leg for each CPU using their ideas like Intel and Google and Linux aren’t charging an arm and a leg for each operating system using their ideas like M$. So small cheap computers can be really small and really cheap. Everyone can afford them and within the decade far more people will own a small cheap computer than a large expensive one and they will do most of their information processing using one.

M$ deliberately seduced ISVs into producing software only for M$’s OS on legacy PCs. Already small cheap computers have more ISVs and applications than you can count. M$ used to punish OEMs who strayed. Governments and courts put a stop to that, thank Goodness. Lies M$ told about Linux being a cancer and illegal were proven to be lies by widespread usage of GNU/Linux and court actions like SCOG v World. The last straw for Wintel was the proliferation of smartphones with Android/Linux OS. No one in the supply chain from OEM to consumer now believes that Wintel is the only game in town. No one now believes one must pay above market-price for good IT. So good IT is everywhere and it does not depend on Wintel to a huge extent. Forrester is just confirming all this by the numbers and how exponential growth works. Once it starts, it can’t be stopped until something maxes out. That won’t happen for a few years yet during which more small cheap computers are being shipped than those expensive legacy PCs. Business is about the only loyal segment for Wintel and they are buying tablets and smartphones already for the mobility. Web applications are undermining the necessity of Wintel PCs even for business.

So, it’s a good year for Free and optimal IT. Free/Libre Open Source software is overrunning the planet down to the last outpost of non-Free software. Intel and M$ are having to work for a living because the world no longer depends on them exclusively and alternatives cost less and are faster coming to market because the licensing is simpler and cheaper. Even better, */Linux is being shipped on a significant share of legacy PCs, a Hell of a lot of servers and ARM is even getting into servery. I expect there will be more good news for consumers and businesses for the next few years in a free market for IT. How refreshing compared to the previous decades. The monopoly that took a decade and a half to evolve into the cancer that it became lasted just a decade more and was cured in just a few short years, perhaps just five years, from ~2007 when Android began and ASUS began to ship eeePC with GNU/Linux to ~2013 when multiple quarters of declining unit sales of Wintel showed the dam holding back the world of Freedom had burst.

The last vestige of Wintel for me seems to be that Walmart still gives some shelf-space to Wintel legacy PCs even though the product is not selling. I expect 2013 will be the end of that retail shelf-monopoly where I live. It’s already happened in Brazil, China, India, Malaysia and partially in many other regions. In those regions a significant number of legacy PCs ship with GNU/Linux and a few with Android/Linux. From 95% share of legacy PCs going Wintel we now have only about 20% of all PCs shipping with Wintel. Surely goodness and mercy shall reign in IT forever. Surely we will not make the mistake to allow monopoly over such important and universal technology ever again.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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14 Responses to Forrester: Tablets and 2017

  1. oiaohm says:

    bw “Walmart Supercenters” also do take note when Walmart first started all Walmart stores were Supercenters most stores have been renamed to only Walmart. Walmart Supercenters if that is the stores title is either a historic left over not converted yet or is a hybrid Warehouse/store. So in future it will be simple to find the Walmart Warehouse/Store combinations since they will have a unique naming.

    Sorry I don’t live in the USA and I have a vastly better idea of Walmart naming than you do. Walmart is a very highly studied company on how to reduce costs.

  2. oiaohm says:

    Ok you again guessing badly again bw. Walmart there are particular stores that do have everything.

    Why because they are the warehouses and store fronts in one. They feed out stock the other stores and do the shipping of on-line orders yes go do a walmart on-line order and notice that shipping charge does not exist from a particular store if you choose to pick it up from there. Hello store/warehouse combination.

    “Surely no real store will have close to 300 distinct models of PCs, Linux and Win8 combined.”
    This is in fact another bogus statement from you bw. There are real stores with all 300 distinct models in stock in the store. Of course they might not be unpackaged for display.

    Come on bw please get at last 1 thing right. You are hitting a complete zero average.

    Of course its a minority of stores that have everything. Yes the major one in Brazil is the warehouse/store combination.

    Walmart is a master of cost savings. Have a store and warehouse in one results in less staff required. Yes no double up of management.

  3. bw says:

    Walmart Supercenters Our Supercenters carry a full range of products, including food,

    They do that in the USA, too, but even the supercenters do not carry every item in the on-line inventory. On their web site you can check which stores might actually have the item in stock. Surely no real store will have close to 300 distinct models of PCs, Linux and Win8 combined. They will stock 6 or 8 most likely. Best Buy only does a couple of times that many.

  4. dougman says:

    Re: It is not very clear

    Broken Windows, you either need glasses, or you’ve been out in the sun too long. Perhaps you should take an extended vacation to the beach of Janeiro. While you are there you can start a Windows crusade, as obviously Brazil has no conception of real IT these days. Good Luck..

    http://www.itworld.com/open-source/367035/poor-countries-saving-money-using-linux

    Over the next 5-10 years I can see a huge shift away for many countries from M$ to Linux. If you look hard enough, you will find plenty of stories now, but the trolls that hang around here would rather people think otherwise.

    For example:
    – Malaysia in 2010 switched 703 of its 724 government agencies to Linux.
    – The Turkish Government has created its own Linux distribution called “Pardus,” as has Cuba, whose distribution is named “Nova.”
    – Iceland announced in 2012 that it will switch to open source software in public institutions. All schools in Iceland have already switched to Ubuntu from Windows.
    – Brazil has 35 million students in over 50,000 schools using over half a million PC’s all running on Linux.
    – Russia announced in 2007 that all its school computers would run on Linux. The list goes on, and on.

    This is why I say, that M$ will eventually come out with their own Linux distribution, analogous to what Google did with Chrome OS and Gentoo.

  5. oiaohm says:

    “I don’t think you are thinking these things all the way through. I have no information concerning your numbers about Microsoft advertising expenses then and now, but if they are true, they are certainly working a lot less today than then.”
    At this point you should have shut your mouth you moron bw. But no you had to go on and guess.
    http://www.neowin.net/news/trivia-tuesday-windows-95s-golden-days
    There are all windows 95 numbers. Quick google or bing search turns these numbers up in a nice simple to read format. Heck its also in the wikipedia. There is no reason for guessing over these numbers.

    “Their revenues are about 16 times higher today than they were in 1995 and if their Windows advertising is two or three times as great, then their results are 5 to 10 times more effective today, using costs vs revenues as the appropriate ratio.”
    You are way out. On a per unit base Windows 8 advertising is higher than 95 time frame.

    40 million copies of 95 brought in 4.4 billion. If you work windows 8 and 95 back to per unit profit Microsoft is making less profit per unit now. So the only reasons Microsoft revenue is larger is the market is larger right wrong this is not the only reason.

    Also you have to remember Microsoft today produces 20+ times more products than they did in 1995. So 16 times large revenue is in fact not growth. Increase product count should be increased income. Income per unit sold by Microsoft has been dropping over the years.

    So Microsoft revune growth is mostly market expansion. If the market was the same size as 1995 Microsoft income would have gone backwards.

    Google has increasing profits per user from advertising. Redhat has a decreasing advertising budget mostly because they have enough work they don’t need to advertise for more. Word of mouth brings it to Redhats door.

    costs vs revenue percentage Microsoft best was and is Windows 95. Every product release since has not matched it.

    Mind you its hard to match a product where users went insane. In one study over 50 percent of people who bought Windows 95 in the first 3 weeks did not own a computer. So there is a lot of installation media for Windows 95 that never got used. Finding that study would have been the best result to say that the Windows 95 was temporary insanity. So able to move the ball park to Windows 98se. That has a cost vs revune numbers more sane. Windows 8 is only a minor drop compared to 98se.

    Basically stop being a moron and do some homework before answering some questions bw.

  6. bw says:

    Compare the good old days when they spent a couple of hundred $million advertising Lose ’95 but today they have spent $1billion+ on “8″ to little effect

    I don’t think you are thinking these things all the way through. I have no information concerning your numbers about Microsoft advertising expenses then and now, but if they are true, they are certainly working a lot less today than then. Their revenues are about 16 times higher today than they were in 1995 and if their Windows advertising is two or three times as great, then their results are 5 to 10 times more effective today, using costs vs revenues as the appropriate ratio.

    As to the poor mouthing that goes on in a 10K, I think you will find, if you look, that Microsoft has been doing that sort of thing for its entire existence. You will find similar frets in the Google, Apple, IBM, and I daresay Red Hat filings, although I have not looked at any of them. Read them all and try to make me look foolish.

  7. bw says:

    Wal-mart in Brazil

    It is not very clear whether that is really a store in Brazil. It is a website in Portuguese for sure, but the USA website lets you pick a store near you and check if the item is in their inventory. My Portuguese is not good enough to tell if this site does the same. Maybe you could find the address of a real store that actually has any of these beasties in stock. I do see where they have about the same number of Win7 and Win8 units, mostly Win8, available as well. No information on what’s selling and what’s not.

  8. dougman says:

    Broken Windows is acting like there is NO Linux in Walmart, someone not being honest and knows it.

    http://www.walmart.com/browse/electronics/google-chromebook/3944_3951_1103213?trend=best-sellers

    Oh look, its got a keyboard and using a version of Linux (Gentoo).

    Point worth mentioning: All those Windows 8 machines will STILL be setting there same time next year collecting dust. LOL….

  9. bw wrote, “Does your Wal-Mart have any Linux PCs on offer?”

    No, mine does not, but others do. See for example, Wal-mart in Brazil. Many models with GNU/Linux show as best-sellers.

  10. bw wrote of my comment that M$ has to work for a living, “What change in behavior do you sense that shows this to be true in the case of Microsoft?”

    Recently, M$ has dropped prices on new products it has released while raising prices on old products already entrenched. That shows they are fighting to keep cash flowing while trying vainly to maintain market share. It looks like they will have to write off way more than $100 per unit of RT. They are also contributing to the Linux kernel so that their products will run in KVM. They are also advertising far more than usual with resulting drop in margins. If these trends continue their margins will be more “normal” within a couple of years. By normal I mean indicating a non-monopolist operating a business. Their share of smartphones I think is only increasing because they have slashed prices there. Compare the good old days when they spent a couple of hundred $million advertising Lose ’95 but today they have spent $1billion+ on “8” to little effect. With all that expenditure “8” is barely ahead of Vista and far behind XP after a year. Meanwhile, XP is nowhere near 90% as XP was.

    Look what M$ put in its latest 10-K:
    “We derive substantial revenue from licenses of Windows operating systems on personal computers. We face substantial competitive challenges from competing platforms developed for new devices and form factors such as smartphones and tablet computers. These devices compete on multiple bases including price and the perceived utility of the device and its platform. Users are increasingly turning to these devices to perform functions that would have been performed by personal computers in the past. Even if many users view these devices as complementary to a personal computer, the prevalence of these devices may make it more difficult to attract applications developers to our platforms. In addition, Surface competes with products made by our OEM partners, which may affect their commitment to our platform.”

    Even M$ realizes it is in deep doodoo. Why doesnt’ bw?

  11. oiaohm says:

    bw .net in the business world is a very poor one to bring up. Its dominance is fading. Java has really taken back its central stage in business apps. Ok this is partly to blame with writing you app in java makes it simpler to port to android and iphone without lag and strange bug issues.

    PC shelf space in the stores has made way for Android tablets. In fact most of the IT stores over here have Apple PC’s on the shelves. Ok it not Linux PC yet but its disruption. Historically Apple store was a Apple store and a PC store was a PC store.

    That has ended here. So bw is Wal-Mart now selling Apple PC’s. Tides shift.

  12. bw says:

    M$ are having to work for a living

    You say this more and more often. What change in behavior do you sense that shows this to be true in the case of Microsoft? My sense of it is that they are doing business as usual, with a variety of initiatives ongoing all the time. Many seem to fail and a few take root, like the Xbox and Kinect in the game world or .NET in the business world. I don’t see any of that changing. What are you seeing?

  13. bw says:

    Walmart still gives some shelf-space to Wintel legacy PCs even though the product is not selling. I expect 2013 will be the end of that retail shelf-monopoly

    Does your Wal-Mart have any Linux PCs on offer? Not Android tablets, but genuine PCs with keyboards and DVD drives and such, using any version of Linux? Mine does not. they have 4 or 5 HP desktop models and a raft of notebooks with Windows 8 on them from various manufacturers. No Linux at all.

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