Gregg Keizer at Computerworld thinks China has a huge XP-problem:
“in China, where XP remains king, 72.1% of the country’s computers relied on the soon-to-retire operating system last month, or nearly three out of every four systems. In any XP doomsday scenario, that means China is in a position four times more precarious than the U.S.”
China has a lot of PCs but not as many as USA so far, so the numbers don’t compare straight up. A lot of Chinese share PCs, for instance in Internet cafes. Still, a lot of working PCs are going to have problems when updates cease. Since many are illegal copies that may already have happened. That’s not the real problem. The real problem is that hundreds of millions of working PCs are not going to be scrapped simply because the OS no longer works on them. China is not going to send $10billion to M$ to get “7” or “8” going next year. “8” won’t even boot on most PCs. “7” will be a pain for lots of older hardware.
No. The problem is M$’s. Hundreds of millions of Chinese PCs are going to be installed with GNU/Linux next year. China has the software ready. China has the manpower. In Mao’s time, they could have issued an edict and made it happen in a few days. These days, it might take a month, but it will happen. What won’t happen is junking that many PCs in a single year. Even if they were junked, some thousands of entrepreneurs would jump on them and resell them with GNU/Linux. You know that will happen. These are not worn out PCs. It’s the OS that’s worn out.
The catastrophe of 2014 will not be to China’s IT but M$’s market-share. In a few months, China will have more GNU/Linux-running legacy PCs than the whole rest of the world and M$ will lose hundreds of millions of current users forever.