Wintel Crumbles

Some things should crumble, like the crust of an apple-pie but tech industries rely on rapid growth and deployments to feed the whole supply chain. If any link in the chain crumbles, the whole thing comes apart.
“Notebook brand vendors are having trouble finishing their 2013 request for quotation (RFQ) processes as early as in previous years due to conservative attitudes about the notebook industry’s future, according to sources from ODMs.”, according to Digitimes. IHS says much the same thing.

They are not writing about a few weeks’ delay either. It’s months… It’s no longer the case that you couldn’t get fired for ordering Wintel. Now folks are waiting to see what others are able to sell first. In notebooks, “8” isn’t it. “7” is doing better but even in USA where XP to “7” is picking up in business, notebook shipments are down. The killer is that no one can justify spending $100 on M$ for a $300 notebook. Consumers may not be able to see the price of the OS but the OEMs certainly can. OEMs are finally responding to the demands of consumers for small cheap computers.

The Wintel supply chain depended on everyone supplying nothing but Wintel so no choices in OS had to be made. With the whole supply chain trying to shave pennies off the price, the big ticket item with little value is harder to skip. That’s M$’s licensing.

The whole world has discovered that for many purposes a tablet running Android/Linux for ~$100 will do what a notebook or desktop PC will do for $300. On top of that are the update and malware issues. Consumers don’t want to be system administrators. They want devices they can just use. The only way OEMs can continue to make money shipping notebooks is to ship GNU/Linux and a much lower price-tag. While most have begun to ship GNU/LInux, they are not pushing it, yet. That will happen next quarter if hesitation continues. I would bet OEMs will not throw away their investments in notebooks rather than push GNU/Linux. They may even quit recommending that other OS.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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61 Responses to Wintel Crumbles

  1. The whole problem is that there is no “GNU/Linux community’s key” because no one is stepping up to provide it. The big OEMs had already told Red Hat that they’re willing to include the community’s keys so I fail to see the “anticompetitive, exclusionary practice”. Microsoft does not mandate that only its key should be included by default on all new motherboards. The OEMs are free to include any other keys.

  2. pogson says:

    News from Taiwan: “Chromebook shipments in the second half are expected to double or even triple those in the first half as Acer, Lenovo, Hewlett-Packard (HP) and Samsung Electronics are all reportedly ready to launch new Chromebooks in the second half, according to sources from the upstream supply chain.”
    see Digitimes

  3. oiaohm says:

    “Chromebooks still remain a small portion of the total U.S. market for laptops and netbooks. The devices had about 4 percent to 5 percent share in the first quarter, though that was up from 1 percent to 2 percent in 2012, according to Mikako Kitagawa, an analyst at Gartner Inc. ”
    This is in from my first link bw.

    You are losing your mind claiming I have not done things yet I have done so in this very blog list of comments.

    Yes I have been bringing reporters here that use IDC and Gartner. So yes I have been bring those numbers here. I have been quote them as well.

    bw what I am after from the carrier numbers is usage patterns with chromebooks. This will tell us how much conversion is going on. bw due to the fact chromebooks require Internet to operate most chromebooks contain 3g and 4g modems built in.

    bw one of the interesting things about the Internet is that we do truly know how big it is even that we don’t know the computer operating systems that make it up and it gets tallyed about every 12 months.
    2,405,518,376 users. How many chromebook devices total about 21,000,000. Or in percentage 0.9 of a percent of the Internet could be chrome-books. That is if none have been converted or hidden user agent or anything else. 0.9 of a percent is not much of a percent to be hiding in wikimedia other figures. Particularly that its at least split between two other sections of the wikimedia stats.

    100000000 that MS has said was sold at a particular point give a max percentage of 4.2 percent. Windows 8 crossed 4.2 percent far too soon with netmarketshare. So there has to be a issue with netmarketshare.

    Bw every method of checking Netmarketshare does is successfully fail.

    This is the problem bw. I can take sales numbers divide by size of internet and create a max Internet percentage. This is max. Numbers of a particular OS found on-line should always be less than the max. Because a percentage of all devices should fail. So anything exceeding max is impossible. So a device should appear on the Internet somewhere between 0 percent and the max percentage based on the number of items sold.

    Any of us who can do proper stats know how to multi path. You want multi answers done by different methods agreeing. So sales figures/market size and carrier numbers and web stats all should line up with each other if they are somewhere near correct. Web stats have always failed validation.

    bw its not hard to work out somewhere near correct numbers. Yes World Internet User numbers are generated by carriers working with each other.

    Do you really thinking spotting something under the size of 0.9 percent with multi user-agents is going to be simple.

  4. dougman says:

    hey bw, do you anything else better to do with your time?
    BTW, Chromebooks do indeed come with 3 and 4G.

    Your lack of information is quite disturbing.

  5. bw says:

    So Yes I have posted Carrier numbers where I can

    That is not true. After substantial goading you provided a link to a Comscore page that showed some guess about smartphone sales. I don’t see where those are carrier numbers at all since they seem kind of vague about their methodology, but in any case they are only talking about phones.

    And you have never shown any other links as far as I can see. You do some handwaving about how “carrier numbers” are more accurate, but you never provide them. You are just making noise and not delivering any data at all. You link to past posts where you make claims but never provide links, making my point.

    In any case, Chromebooks are not phones and do not inherently contain 3G or 4G connections that might ever be measured by a carrier company.

    The network stats companies are measuring how much traffic connects to their reporting sites via what kind of OS and browser. More than a hundred times as many connections are made with Windows 8 than ChromeOS and thousands of times as many connections are made with Windows in any form than with ChromeOS. If ChromeOS is to be a threat to Windows, then it should register on these metrics and it does not.

    4-5 percent PC style sales are chromebooks

    There is absolutely no evidence of that that you have posted from IDC or Gartner or anyone else.

  6. oiaohm says:

    bw carriers do metrics on everything with a embedded sim card. So the arguement that they are not a phone is wrong. Anything with a sim card is a phone of some form. Just might be in a strange shape.

    There are a percentage of Windows 8 and 7 OS devices with embed phone modem. This would give a true cross sampling of Windows user on-line behaviour.

    Really how dumb of a idiot are you. On this very page I have posted carrier numbers that are available on the public record. So Yes I have posted Carrier numbers where I can.

    bw IDC and Gardner numbers say chromebooks are less popular than Windows 8. Less popular than Windows is a given and you don’t need to use bogus numbers to get there. 4-5 percent PC style sales are chromebooks. bw find once where I have said that chromebooks are more popular than Windows items. I have not you have just attempted to put words in my mouth.

    bw do windows 8 users have to cloak there machine to access sites. The answer is no. They might use firefox or chrome instead of ie but that is far as it goes.

    Failure in the market would not have growing IDC and Gardner numbers.

    bw this is the problem IDC and Gardner also don’t agree with webstats. Growth above 1 percent in those there has to be some positive word of mouth. So a percentage has to be successful.

    Its fine to argue that Windows is more popular than Chromebooks. But saying it dieing in the market when IDC and Gardner is not saying that you have big problems.

    Chrome OS might be a failure in the market but the hardware of Chromebooks is being successful as well. bw what percent of the market nukes the hardware they buy and installs there own OS. Could it not be 5 percent. Could it not be a possibility that those are buying chromebooks because UEFI has made it too much of a pain in but for PC. There is a chance that the presume on the number of people who format over there machines is out. Chromebooks is one of the few items that might allow us to answer this if we can get the data.

    bw the point is we need answers what are happening to chromebooks. We don’t need idiots presuming things. Yes chromebooks should be less popular than Windows 8 by simple volumes sold. Would you expect chrome books to be less.
    346.2 Million x %6 to allow for the 2 years of sales. So there is about 21 million units of chrome-books total globally max. And more than 100 million Windows 8 units.

    So Chromebooks at best should be 1/5 of Windows 8. Start allowing that Chromebooks are a portable device that people many not use all the time.

    –If you are of the belief that Chromebooks are fungible substitutes for Windows laptops and represent an economic threat to Microsoft, then you must accept that measures of usage that represent how Windows computers are faring relative to competition must apply to Chromebooks as well.–
    bw bad news I am not in that belief. If anything it might be a substitute to Linux users who have been buying Windows laptops to convert to Linux. Converting Chrome OS to a normal Linux could be simpler for them than dealing with secure boot. Due to this fact I am expecting a percentage of chromebooks to disappear and never be seen as Chrome OS again.

    We need the carrier numbers to sort out what the heck is going on. Without them bw its all wild guesses unless you restrict yourself to IDC and Gardner numbers. Yes those numbers say Windows is still winning but looks to be losing ground.

    bw big questions why are web stats and IDC not in alignment. We have no information to answer this. There is a long list of possible causes why. No one has the evidence to prove or disprove any of the causes. Because we have no information on the final usage of chromebook devices.

    So bw give up if you wanted to make the your point you could have used IDC sales numbers. Problem is if you use those you have to also accept the fact chromebooks are growing in sales at the moment. Completely in the other direction to what you are suggesting.

    Netmarketshare numbers just bring more questions about collection and final usage. But it brings no answers. It does not have the data required to answer what the heck is going.

  7. bw says:

    We do not have carrier numbers

    Not surprising since they are not phones. I might also point out that you have never posted links to carrier numbers. Your lies are not being ignored by your attempts to change the subject.

  8. bw says:

    I guess you are too thick to help, oiaohm. If you are of the belief that Chromebooks are fungible substitutes for Windows laptops and represent an economic threat to Microsoft, then you must accept that measures of usage that represent how Windows computers are faring relative to competition must apply to Chromebooks as well. Else they are not really replacements for Windows notebooks. In any case the metrics apply equally to Windows and Chromebooks for what we can deem as normal usage and Chromebooks, after more than 2 years of availability, barely register on the scale. So one can only say that Chromebooks are far less popular with buyers than Windows 8 for whatever purpose is being measured by the internet statistics. If that is not what chromebooks are meant to do, then fine, they do not compete with Windows 8 computers. Otherwise you must agree that Chromebooks are far less popular than Windows 8.

    No other conclusion is logical no matter how many hairs you want to split or remote hypothetical conditions you want to impose. They are a failure in the market.

  9. oiaohm says:

    Yes the false identity usage of Linux users to websites fairly much tells you that every web number counting Linux is X percent +. The question always is how big is the +. Also means Windows and Mac numbers are percent – so much.

  10. oiaohm says:

    bw really you just attempted bogus.

    “Because they are valid measures of internet user activities and are not biased in any way, being automatically collected as people visit websites.”
    Sorry this is wrong. That presumes all devices users will visit same sites in equalish pattern and with valid matching identification. Comscore has metrics on this saying this is your first very bad presume. Basic science here take a theory then work out the data you need to attempt to disprove it. Iphones, ipads, Android phones and Android tablets interesting enough all have a different website visiting profile. Since these 4 are all different the correct presume is all OS visit profiles are different.

    “They do not seem to miss Windows 8 or Windows 7 or various versions of Macs and iPhones and iPads, so why do they only miss Linux versions?”

    We do not have carrier numbers of Windows 7 or Windows 8 or Macs. Note your words do not seam to miss. You have no evidence that the Windows 8 or Macs numbers are exactly right or even close to right. That does not mean that is not generated by double counting .

    By carrier numbers over time have shown web numbers miss counting number of iphones and ipad as well in both directions over counting and in past under counting. When Android was a smaller percentage. In fact iphones at one point were under counted for there recorded on line activity by carriers by particular web statistics and android was over counted. So there is horible flux in web stats.

    Note the one link from comscore that shows that idevices use 3g and wifi switching between them more where android devices have the habit of using 1 or the other. idevices have way higher risk of double counting because if this behaviour.

    Again you go off with another presume where is your data on real users of chromebooks usage patterns. You have not ground surveyed them. You have not used a collection method like carriers they cannot avoid.

    There is an explanation where Chrome devices are disappearing on Wikimedia numbers it is in the useragent strings the default should be by google image.
    Mozilla/5.0 (X11; U; CrOS i686 9.10.0; en-US) AppleWebKit/532.5 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/ Safari/532.5

    What does this the ChromeOS user-string equal when processed by Wikimedia. OS Other non mobile. If the string had contained the word Linux it would end up in Linux Other. Simple fact of the issue Chrome OS does not follow OS declare patterns. Gets worst different makes of chrome OS like from acer and others replace CrOS with other names including maker and something include Linux. Welcome to another crap shot problem to count. Sorry I was waiting for the wikimedia arguement. So Chrome OS devices appear in different areas of the stats depend on the maker and that is if the user sticks to defaults.

    So bw your inescapable conclusion that chrome os devices are not being used for general website is also very problematic claim. We know chrome os devices are a dogs breakfast.

    Problem Chrome OS devices might be showing up just wrong OS.

    bw exactly what reason do you have to believe chromebook users will not be using firefox inside a ubuntu or debian chroot so showing up as a different Linux.

    Yes bw chromebooks have multi personality disorder. As many admit that chrome os out box is not enough. So you then have to presume a percentage will extend.

    So a percentage of chromebook users will be counted all over the place. What will be the best way to sort this out. Get stats on operational usage from like Samsung
    XE303C12-H01US. These have built in 3g mobems. Part of the 3g ID is device locked. So even if the OS is changed you will still identify those as XE303C12-H-01US device. Same with every other chromebook with an embedded 3g modem.

    bw all you can say by Chrome OS not showing up in webstats is that users of “Chrome OS devices are either not visiting the sites you are expecting” or “are not using the Chrome OS web browser and being counted as a different Linux” or “are being counted as Windows or OS X users due to altered user-agent string” or as you say the device is not being used at all.

    Linux desktop users have been forced to use useragent switcher in their browsers more often to access sites.

    Yep chromebook users also have this feature. Going back to the 3g/4g device id will detect if chromebook users are using this.

    bw do you have to change useragent under Windows so sites work yes or no?? Of course you will answer no. Do you have to change useragent under chromeos at times so sites work the answer is yes. Is this change global to all sites you are visiting. The answer is yes.

    See problem. Linux devices are down right good at hiding from anything depending on user-agent string. All due to how many sites don’t work with the default strings.

    bw its one of the differences in behavour between windows and Linux. Yet you keep on trying to claim operation behaviour is the same. Windows users don’t go out and clone the browser appearance to website of Linux normally. Yes Linux users will go out and clone the browser appearing of Windows to websites so stuff works.

    Looking at the Linux users behaviours explain why they are so down right hard to count. Linux is very much like the Australian lyrebird on the web. Near one of those you might think you have a huge stack of different birds. But its only 1 bird coping the other birds sound.

    So yes you could see like 90 percent windows 9.99 percent OS X and 0.01 percent Linux and the machines you are counting all turn out to be Linux.

    False identity that Linux devices use make them insanely hard to count. How to avoid false identity problem and work out how bad or good it is you need like 3g/4g network information where you can monitor the users behaviour and find out how fake the Linux users are.

    The problem here you are not looking at the device usage to see if there are any issues counting it. I have. I know the issues.

    Chrome OS devices run multi OS. Chrome OS devices do fake identity. And somehow you still like a idiot think they will be easy to count. If you had studied the GNU/Linux desktop you would have know these problems existed. They are not new problems for Chrome OS.

    Ubuntu phone if it takes off will also be interesting to see how stealth it is.

  11. bw says:

    why can you not accept that Netmarketshare numbers are untrustable?

    Because they are valid measures of internet user activities and are not biased in any way, being automatically collected as people visit websites. They do not seem to miss Windows 8 or Windows 7 or various versions of Macs and iPhones and iPads, so why do they only miss Linux versions? The answer is that they do not. Linux users, including ChromeOS, are simply rare birds in this world.

    You are like the GOP in the last election. They were upset that the polls showed Romney losing the election, so they spent all their time trying to prove that the pollsters were inaccurately measuring things. Turned out, Romney lost by a lot and the polls were pretty accurate in predicting the outcome.

    If you want to ever get to a useful strategy for Linux, you have to get back to reality and away from such constant denial. Chromebooks are used for the same thing that Windows 8 laptops are used for. When results are measured, Windows 8 is showing increasing adoption by these users and Chromebooks are failing to register on the same metrics and not just on one or the other, but all of them. They don’t show up on Pogson’s wikidata tables either. The inescapable conclusion is that people are not using them for general access to internet sites.

    Maybe they are being used in very specialized circumstances that are not being measured, but that only means that people who do traditional internet access are not using them. I saw one article that suggested that Chromebooks (and Surface RT) were sitting on someone’s shelf after purchase because they could do most of what was needed, but they could not do it ALL. So, after a short time, the user just kept using his old notebook computer which could do it all even though the Chromebook could do 90% or more.

    I know that I myself have a perfectly good Acer Aspire netbook that sits in a bag in the closet because it is useful in a pinch, but I am almost never pinched. I use this Dell instead or else use my desktop. There is no reason to stop what I am doing and switch to another computer simply because the other one can do something too and cost less.

    The article suggested that people bought the RT or the Chromebook because they were relatively inexpensive and very portable, but they found that they were not universally useful enough to do everything.

  12. oiaohm says:

    bw end of day there is no valid data on chromebooks other than sales numbers free of charge.

    Since you brought bott artical here bw its your responsibility to defend how truthful Netmarketshare numbers are. Particularly paid for hidden numbers of Netmarketshare. Not for me to provide you with new numbers because bott is quoting numbers not on the open public record.

    You have display nothing that says Netmarketshare numbers should be trusted to metric Chromebooks. I have presented the example where Netmarketshare is known to be out on Android and idevices. Even some of the how its out. You have not said how if the Android and idevices numbers by Netmarketshare are provable bogus how can any other number by Netmarketshare be trusted. Bott will try to argue it based on user usage pattern without providing exactly what they are doing different. Comscore shows many issues as the cause of this problem. Filtering on Android devices, Differences in Network connection patterns, Differences in visited sites. All put web collected numbers out.

    You have not proven that Chromebook addblock plus usage is low this is another
    item that can put Chromebooks count out. Android could also be addblock plus in fact we are fairly sure of it. Android count numbers have increased direct in line with when google banned addblock plus from google play. Addblock plus on Chromebooks is not banned. Due to chromebooks being web driven installing Adblock plus would be a performance boosting tool. Are you saying to me that Chromebook users would not install items to improve their chromebook performance?? You complain about them suxing enough so why would it not be that almost 100 percent of them have filtering. Any evidence that almost 100 percent of the don’t have filtering. In fact there is no evidence either way. Only parties who could give us this evidence is carriers who are not talking on public record about chromebook usage heck they don’t talk in the public record about PC usage. If we had the carriers giving us that information we would not be interested in netmarketshare numbers either. The carriers can tell us all the correct answers. We just have to make the buggers talk somehow.

    Since you cannot why can you not accept that Netmarketshare numbers are untrustable? There is more than enough data to say Netmarketshare is nothing more than an extremely wild guess.

    bw I am quite willing to accept the fact we have very limited dependable sources about chromebooks.

    IDC and Gardner are about it for reasonable quality chromebook numbers on the public record. We have to base all our presumes about what chromebooks are doing off those numbers. Why because we cannot get carrier stats for free. Quoting non free stats here you will not believe them. But for some reason you believe bott when he quotes a non free from netmarketshare without any other validation.

    If you go back I have also repeated said we are lacking good and solid stats to know anything. Why would my option change now.

    Lack of good stats is one of the worst problems for Linux. Why we don’t know what distributions are leading and what ones are losing. If this was truly known the Linux users by nature would crowd into less distributions.

    In a lot of ways I see lack of good stats as bug number 1 against the development of Linux due to how it allows fragmentation to form worse.

    Come on bw attempt to defend Netmarketshare or admit the reality we don’t have numbers. The numbers that are solid we have prove Netmarketshare is trash.

  13. bw says:

    I can find another 40 more times if you like bw

    Are you that stupid? Neither of those links show any link to these numbers. So lets find just 2 that offer links. All you are doing is making a claim. Pogson apparently cannot find any such links that show OS usage for PCs either. So put up or shut up.

    At the end of the day, you do not have any info on Chromebook usage to counter the NetShare data that Bott referenced, All you have are crazy arguments that try and fail to show why Chromebooks are not showing up in usage statistics. You allude to sales figures that you do not link to as well.

    Can you really convince even yourself that Linux and Chromebook use is so horribly stealthy that it doesn’t register on the usual metrics in spite of the “huge” number of sales that you claim? Windows 8 shows up, Windows 7 shows up, Apple shows up, even Android shows up. But ChromeOS does not show up. Why is that?

    Because there are not very many in use, is why. No getting around that no matter how hard you try.

  14. oiaohm says:

    bw there is another super killer for counting chromebook users with netmarketshare. The fact that Chrome OS support Adblock Plus. That just happen to block all netmarketshare collection links. So depending on how dominate this is installed the fact is Chromebooks could be the equal of silent running never showing to netmarketshare.

    There are reasons why we need carrier numbers. Data has to pass in and threw carrier any filtering tech used by device does not hide it from carrier counting.

  15. oiaohm says:

    Go read this is one of my many comments. I can dig out one directed at you if you like using comscore. I have bw.

    bw you have a memory problem when you have pulled out netmarketshare numbers in the past I have hit you with it before. I have been very non bias about this.
    I have messaged you many times over this and I am sick of it bw.
    I can find another 40 more times if you like bw.

    The fact is the statistical evidence bott uses is not solid. I use IDC numbers and carrier numbers where able. Steam for a sampling. IDC might not be perfect machines built from parts don’t see. But at least you can trust the method not to be biased in unpredictable ways.

    Gartner and IDC provides Chromebook sales numbers. 5 to 4 percent of market. I did provide that in sub in fact. In fact IDC and Gartner does have fairly good numbers on chromebook sales. Note they are measuring revenue. So its possible that its 10 percent of current sales not 4 to 5 percent. Now since we know the sales numbers the question is why are they not appearing in web stats.

    Carrier numbers from comsore show that iphones are over represented compared to Android in Netmarketshare. So a valid presume since chrome-books use the same default sites and Android that they will also be under represented.

    This is the problem if you can find 1 whole in a stat collection the complete collection has to be classed as suspect. So I don’t need carrier numbers on chromebooks to render Netmarketshare numbers not usable.

    bw you cannot say that netmarketshare is correctly displaying Android numbers. So how in hell can it correctly display Chromebook numbers. The answer is it cannot.

    bw only one set of stats can be correct for number of Android devices on line. Carriers with comscores or netmarketshare. Answer is Comscores because Carriers really know who is connected.

    bw we really do need Comscore to talk to carriers and have them collect client usage information. Thinking lot of carriers collect this stuff for the NSA anyhow might as well release it to public. This would give close to exact numbers of how many of every OS are on-line really.

    bw places like PC Mag with editor control you don’t see them quoting netmarketshare. They will not. Instead they pay for comscore.


    The advantage of comscore carrier integration. They work out some of the behaviour differences that make Android under count on web stats. The fact Android devices are less likely to be using wifi than idevices . Could chromebooks not be the same?? bw this is the problem. We are lacking behaviour details on the Chromebook user. We have the behaviour details on the Android and iOS device users due to comscore. Heck normal desktop Windows user, Normal desktop Linux user and normal Desktop OS X user we don’t have their behaviour details either.

    NSA has that detail from carriers for general OS users. So the information exists its just not published for us to use bw.

  16. bw says:

    stick their fingers in their ears and sing “la-la-la” all they want

    Sounds like fun!


    That was fun! Almost as much fun as watching the price of MSFT creep higher and higher and dividend checks roll in every 3 months. Did you see where their last quarter was the highest on record? Sweet!

    I like Windows 8 metro, renamed Windows Store Apps, for some things. The frameless, full-screen mode can be beneficial in some cases although I do confess that the traditional framed window is what I feel most comfortable with even now. I bought the StartIsBack app for a couple of bucks and use it most of the time although the few games I play I play in metro mode.

    I don’t think that is a terrible thing for most people, though. It is like the holdouts for command line interfaces when the GUI became the standard. People will eventually get used to it and use it more and more.

  17. bw says:

    Ok who is correct bott or Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols

    I would say “Nice try!”, but that would be far too generous. You posted here:

    “Bott is on the record stating that he writes just to get site traffic in his own words.”

    which I felt would be an incredible admission for a blogger such as Bott and I suspected that you were making that up. When challenged, you first ignored it and then came up with an attempt to change the subject enough for you to weasel away. That will not work.

    You now try to say that SJVN and Bott are mere bloggers, which, at least, is true, but aren’t we all? What you do not say is that the statistics cited by Bott, or SJVN for that matter, cite some other story or statistic and state their opinion of the impact of that event or statistic.

    You launch into an ad hominem attack on Bott, but you never can dismiss the facts of the statistical evidence. All you do is try to create some sort of verbal smokescreen.

    Not having learned any lesson at all, you go on to say “Ed Bott has a long history of using bogus numbers.” I bet you cannot find any such incident and only have your own handwaving argument that the stats are not accurate.

    As to your having linked to “comscore” stats on “numerous” occasions, that, too, is malarkey. I do not remember any such posting, but I would give you the benefit of a doubt if you could ever point to where you had done so in the past. You have not done this, but you could try.

    What you did point to here is not anything that shows usage share for ChromeOS or any other OS. All it shows is the sales percentages of smartphones.

  18. Michael Rudas says:

    I have been watching Microsoft—closely—for over 35 years, starting with the dumpster-dived Microsoft BASIC on a cassette tape on an 8080-based system, followed by the Commodore PET and others. I used QDOS on a Zenith PC long before PC-DOS ever came out—and it was clearly a CP/M knockoff. I watched as MS released three versions of DOS 6 to remove stolen code. I have seen the evidence of how MS has manipulated the market, to the detriment of all but themselves (Comes vs. Microsoft, the “Halloween” documents, etc.). I really think that this is a watershed moment for Microsoft… the chickens are coming home to roost and the trend line is sinking. The trolls can stick their fingers in their ears and sing “la-la-la” all they want, but the market is actively pushing back against Windows 8 and its kin. Except for those that are paid for it or who have drank the Kool-Aid, I have not met ONE person that actually likes Win8. It would appear that v8.1 is even worse, in some ways. Classic Shell, a free program that restores some of the Win7 functionality, has been downloaded over six million times. THAT speaks volumes.

  19. ram says:

    Linux based machines have several other major advantages besides price and better hardware:

    * Far more developers doing original things as they are not centrally controlled.

    * Far more independent media content available in open standard ogg and other formats.

    The world has over 7 billion people, the vast majority of them don’t want content from a few guys (mostly of a single ethnic group) in Hollywood.

  20. oiaohm says:

    bw I mentioned comscore and android this should have been enough detail to find them. So moron do your homework and spot the opps in netmarketshare numbers. That renders them useless.

  21. oiaohm says:

    Ed Bott is also all over the place bw. Next month he may talking completely the other way. But it does not change the fact the numbers Ed Bott just used are preliminary numbers not trusted by the collector.

    Ed Bott has a long history of using bogus numbers.

  22. oiaohm says:

    Ok who is correct bott or Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols.
    Basically they write both sides of the arguement to get the most traffic to zdnet. Both Ed Bolt and Steven J, Vaughan-Nichols over do there cases. This is not reporting. As I said a month latter saying the reverse. This is how zdnet goes. Flip and flop all over the place. No editor control on quality to tell a true balanced story.

    bw quoting zdnet basically is a mark of a idiot from either side. Either a MS troll or a Linux Troll.

    bw I have linked to carrier stats many times

    Its the carriers who provide this information to comscore. I have linked to comscore many times before across the blog. The simple reality is they are carriers stats. Sorry bw you are a moron. The idevices and android numbers showing up in webstats is wrong. Once one set of the numbers is wrong the complete set of numbers become suspect.

  23. bw says:

    oiaohm, you have descended back into lunacy and even the comparison to doughman and matchrocket and some others cannot offset that clear fact. You have never linked to any “carrier stats”. You have only made reference to such things in your deluded ravings. You haven’t even backed up your criticism of Ed Bott. No more soup for you.

  24. bw says:

    Ed Bott states that Windows Monopoly is Crumbling

    That’s not all that’s crumbling, it seems. You sneered at a 3 month old article as out of date and at the author, too, and now you are citing that author’s 2 year old article. Your credibility is crumbling a lot faster than Microsoft’s business, which is still increasing.

    And I guess you have also given up on the myth that chromebooks are making any headway?

  25. oiaohm says:

    Entry level computer devices have had a very high return rate in general.

    Windows netbooks they in fact showed equal return rates to most OEM has Linux netbooks. In fact removing Linux netbooks caused Entry Windows netbooks return rates to go up.

    There need to be that entry bit of crap that if a person is felling a little disappoint with what they have look at it and go thank god I did not buy that. This reduces return rates on the next level up so they are more likely to tolerate some defects.

    Yes the stupid reality of market place. You will have increased Windows 8 entry level laptops sales if you have chromebook sitting next to it. So its worth best buy keeping a token chromebook on shelf. Best buy learnt this as well from when the killed stocking Linux netbooks because they were not selling. The Linux netbook goes away then the Windows entry level netbook stops sellling they remove that then the new Windows entry level device stops selling. Most people want better than the worst even if its just 1 level better.

    bw really chromebooks or a linux netbook that is cheep and low cost to produce that can rot away as display stock is worth every cent. Thing is 4-5% of current sales is quite impressive for a item that is mostly there to upsell from. The fact the entry is selling at 4-5% of current sales shows that MS has a big problem with their interface.

    bw retail is a strange beast. The first bread maker did not sell at all. The company making the first bread maker went away and made a horible large and over priced version. This gave users something to compare to result was they sold out of the first small nice looking models. But then they run into problems some posh people wanting to by the horible and they had only made empty cases of it for the display models. Yes this is a real case.

    Turns out you are better to make a crappy looking low priced item with bugger all features and making the one you want to sell 10 dollars more expensive. This way no one wants to buy crappy fake display item. And everyone thinks they are getting a bargain because what you bought was so feature rich.

    bw retail is part slide of hand. There are a lot more examples like this. So as stupid as it sound a item that never sells may be key to retail success. Remove that item and you have no sales. How to make profit in retail gets strange. So your friend complaining about high return rates of chromebooks. Ask him how many of those customers came back and walked out with Windows laptops who might not have if they had not got a chromebook.

    Yes entry level crap has a place. To be crap to allow you to up-sell to something else to a customer who most likely would never have bought the up-sell anyhow.

    High return rates of particular items is good business.

  26. oiaohm says:

    Why I am saying bolts numbers not numbers. Is that the numbers of chrome os netmarketshare does not publicly publish on their website yet. Reason the are preliminary they are the first collection so could be buggy. Bw you got up Linux guys for using early steam numbers as well.

    So Ed Bott is exactly as bad as the early people using steam numbers not giving them time to be validated.

  27. oiaohm says:

    Of course in a longer race than like 5km and starting 100 metres back with a running start with dogs you lose. Why because dogs only have so much high speed endurance.

    Just like a dog sledge race and starting before the start line that advantage does not last. Windows starts with a huge advantage on market numbers. Even trying to compare OS X to Chromebooks on webstats is not possible because a percentage of that will be upgrades again of existing for OS X. Standing start vs moving start bw. This is the problem botts numbers say nothing that you can draw anything from yet.

  28. oiaohm says:

    bw I have pointed to carrier stats in the pass comscore openly publishes some. In fact I have point you to them in the past but you don’t want to take that data on board. So why do I need to bother re-quoting them again.

    bw I have mentioned my source of them in the past but you don’t pay attention.

    Also you did not read. Windows 8 how much has been the 40 dollar upgrades.

    Chromebooks only 2 years of hardware out there total. How many years of hardware is out there than can run Windows 8. Lots more right bw.

    0.7% of Windows 8 size is nothing not to be unexpected expected. In fact due to limited hardware for it to run on Compared to Windows 8 that still can be good enough sales.

    Bw you are forgetting Windows legacy and how that can expand the number massive for Windows 8.

    When I have more time I will dig it out Bott did a interview. He is good for zdnet controversy lies and other crap brings them traffic and this bring them advertising revenue.

    Chromebooks have to wait for turn over to new machines and build brand id. Where Windows 8 has been able to do upgrades of existing deployed hardware.

    Windows 8 supporting hardware goes back to early vista. Enterprise volume license upgrades. Something you are not taking into account.

    This kind of upgrading change also shows up in steam numbers. How because the percent of new versions of Windows don’t line up with the hardware lists of steam showing new hardware. So a fair percentage of Windows 8 installs by gamers are upgrades. If it was not the hardware lists of steam would be showing more new hardware.

    bw there are many different stats monitoring what is going on. Without assembling them into a complete story its very simple to get the wrong picture.

    Remember 4-5 percent of this years sales less than 1 percent of last years sales. bw how many people do you think migrated from older versions of Windows to Windows 8. In fact more than the total number of units of chromebooks sold so far by a large number.

    Should chromebooks be a insanely small number in carrier numbers yes it should be. Should it be stupidly small web stats yes it should be.

    The existing base takes a long time to change.

    bw chrome as started from a standing start. Its like the classic dog sledge example. Lets say I let you start 100 metres from the end line and I start back at 200 metres I start with a running start across the 200 metres line and you start from stationary at 100 metres. Who wins. I do.

    This is the problem it will take years for Chrome OS devices to turn up in volumes in web stats. Could be as many as 8 to 10. You need the legacy to make way.

  29. dougman says:

    Even Ed Bott states that Windows Monopoly is Crumbling, meanwhile BW disagrees

    Yes, the article is two years old, but still VERY relevant.

    Chromebooks aside, anyone with half-a-brain can plainly see that M$ future is not looking very well, even with a shake-down internally. Ballmer is in no way capable of turning this turd around.

  30. bw says:

    bw Bott is on the record stating that he writes just to get site traffic in his own words

    Can you prove that or are you just making that up, too?

  31. bw says:

    bw you want to take botts point of view on the numbers because just like bott it plays into his story. Problem is 7/10 of a percent is a very good result.

    Bott’s numbers didn’t come from Bott. They are the ONLY numbers that there are and they are not good. They show usage of ChromeOS as 0.7% the size of the Windows 8 numbers. Win8 has had less than a year. Chromebooks have had more than 2 years to catch on.

    Also, you yak about “carrier statistics”, but you never reference any such thing. Can you actually point to any or is this just another one of your fantasies?

  32. oiaohm says:

    bw Bott is on the record stating that he writes just to get site traffic in his own words. So he is not a journalist worth his salt. Please note Bott only write blog entries for zdnet not proper items. This allows zdnet to disregard quality controls.

    bw Android and iphone we know is under counted due to carrier reports compared to the crap stat bott used. This explains it a large percentage of it. ChromeOS is also default to using the same sites as Android so should be expect to be less displayed than what is really out there just like Android. So under counting will happen and should be expected.

    Next 4-5 percent of sales is not huge number yet. But this is a growing percentage from 1 percent to 4-5 of sales. 4-5 percent . You have to take into account the complete that android is 70+ of new sales of mobile devices. The mobile device market is as large as the PC market. So at very best Chrome should appear at 1/14 of Android numbers.

    Is there anything else to make it worse yes there is.

    Windows 8, OS X, Android/Linux and GNU/Linux was migration of some existing hardware out there also had a large pools of existing hardware to migrate. Chromebooks does not have the volume of existing hardware. 7/10 of 1 percent of usage metric for number of Chrome-books sold ever is a very high registration on the web stats. Worrying high if I was Microsoft.

    Gets worse a percentage of chromebooks will not be showing up as chromebooks any more due to people being frustrated and converting them to GNU/Linux to get more functionality.

    This is the problem bott took one stat and classed it as bible. Did not compare to to other stats to validate it. When you validate it 7/10 of a percent is a very high reading from a webstat for a new platforms with very little legacy that is as young as Chromebooks and with the limited volume Chromebooks has sold.

    4-5 percent in sales is enough units to be profitable. Also that 4-5 percent will be driving other sales. So its unlikely for chrome-books to disappear. The question is what percentage will Chrome-books level off at.

    Carrier metric of Chromebooks are also low bw. This is the problem Carrier and Sales metrics don’t 100 percent. Carrier metrics are way more dependable than what bolt used. Carrier metrics measure the current in use including past sales. IDC and Gardner attempt to measure sold assembled units. Chromebooks is something they can count.

    bw asking at best buy is not the right place you want to know how sales are really going over all its IDC or Gardner. You want to know active market share you have to sell applications and other add ons to a OS to you want carrier numbers.

    bw you want to take botts point of view on the numbers because just like bott it plays into his story. Problem is 7/10 of a percent is a very good result. This is also a growing result from 12 months ago. It will take years for the 4-5 percent sold today to appear as the active percentage.

  33. bw says:

    article that is months old?? LOL….

    Its “lol”, dweebster! lol

    Do you have a newer cite? Why not?

    Now, Acer, Asus, HP, Lenovo, and Samsung are all now selling Chromebooks

    But not very many of them, apparently. Else why do they show up so poorly in usage statistics compared to other new issues such as Windows 8? Diss the stats as much as you want, but Windows 8, Android, Ubuntu, Macs, and the rest of Windows show up, even old Linux. So why not ChromeOS? Answer: Nobody’s using it for the same purpose. No other answer possible.

  34. dougman says:

    BW, spouts off intrinsic knowledge as he knows what is up with IT these days.

    BW, you are a dinosaur as with M$. Remember the ad M$ ran showing them as Office dinosaurs? No?? I think it has now become relevant.

    BW, your citing Ed Bott and an article that is months old?? LOL….

    Ed Bott is the same clown that stated that Windows RT will be a glorious success LOL…….

    Ed Bott, gazing into his crystal ball stated:

    “It’s easy to take potshots at Windows RT, but it takes only a bit of vision to look two or three years into the future and see its path to success.”

    “But in a few years Windows RT will be the future. As ARM technology continues to evolve and developers (including Microsoft) ship more robust apps for the platform, it’s easy to see a future where the RT side of Windows is more important”

    Time magazine, in its TECH section calls Windows RT ill-conceived and I won’t argue the fact the a handful of OEMs cancelled orders for the device, so eh. So put your put all your faith in Ed Bott you like, he will lead you down a glorious path to nowhere fast and then laugh at you later

    Now, regarding Chromebooks, here are key reasons that it will trump Windows.

    1. Zero Configuration, none. Type your Google username, bam done. I have purposely wrecked it multiple times to test this out and recovery is quick. Try that with Windows.
    2. No Storage… equals no liability, lost or stolen buy another one put in user name and password and back come settings.
    3. No installed software to upgrade.
    4. Backend Tech support from Google completely outsourced IT department to boot
    5.Cloud Storage.
    6. Long Battery life, I have seen 6-10 hours with mine on the lowest settings. I can play music from Google and crank the screen all the way down all day it plays.
    7. The display is VERY bright and the sound is VERY good.
    8. Packaged apps, will the next big thing. Read the link and watch the video for more information.
    9. Roll apps, are awesome. I can run LibreOffice from my Chromebook and sync with my Dropbox.
    10. No Malware or Viruses, it runs Linux.
    11. It boots in under 10 seconds, try that with Windows.
    12. At $250-$200, they are worth looking into for mobile use.

    Now, Acer, Asus, HP, Lenovo, and Samsung are all now selling Chromebooks. In addition, Chromebooks that are now sold in 6,600 retails stores including Best Buy and Wal-Marts. Chromebook is now in the business retail channel now from Staples, Fry’s Electronics, Office Depot, OfficeMax, and TigerDirect.

    To make Chromebooks more attractive to enterprises, Google has recently inked deals with Citrix and VMware to bring business applications to Chromebooks.

    – Written from my Samsung Chromebook

  35. bw says:

    Recognized tech journalists like Bott are dismissed as “crap” and industry standard statistics sources such as NetMarketShare are also dismissed with a lot of handwaving about why Linux never shows up. You can protest all you want, but you never provide any counter information from any legitimate source and year after year Microsoft manages to make a handsome profit and does not seem to be in decline.

    You throw the chicken bones and read disaster into what investors and analysts see as positive notes and sagely predict the demise of Microsoft, but you and your toadies are never validated by future events. You should find something else to crow about that doesn’t constantly show you up as a fool.

  36. oiaohm says:

    bw and it does not change the fact the survey method bolt depends on is not dependable or balance or really tell you anything about sales.

    Ed Bolt is crap end of story. His survey numbers are crap with no validation. Just found numbers to attempt to make a story nothing more. In 4 weeks time he will find another set of crap numbers saying the exact other way.

  37. oiaohm says:

    bw as normal you cannot read complete articals before making idiot comments.
    “Chromebooks still remain a small portion of the total U.S. market for laptops and netbooks. The devices had about 4 percent to 5 percent share in the first quarter, though that was up from 1 percent to 2 percent in 2012, according to Mikako Kitagawa, an analyst at Gartner Inc. ”

    That is down the page past the 300 dollar figure that you did not read.

    bw the largest sales of chromebooks are direct to schools not by retail channel.

    Entry level laptops have always had high return rates due to people not finding them up to the job.

    I quoted a good balanced write up if you would have read it all.

  38. bw says:

    You can make as many ad hominem attacks on Ed Bott as you wish, but it doesn’t change the numbers in the surveys. Your citing some single source about a percentage of “under $300 notebooks” is pretty weak when it doesn’t tell how big that tiny segment actually is. It is a sort of “world’s tallest midget” claim that thinking people are going to see through immediately.

    The sad (for Linux fans) story is that chromebooks are lagging in sales and retailers are not very enthusiastic. My Best Buy friend says they have a very high return rate when buyers find that they are not useable in many academic settings. They were sold as a cheap way to get some functionality, but found lacking in practice.

  39. oiaohm says:

    bw In fact I am an investor I have owned MSFT shares in the past.

    By the way mind not quoting some of the incompetence from zdnet in future.

    Ed Bott is the most incompetent research zdnet has. Quoting anything of his is asking for your head to be handed to you bw. He is the master of say crap to get traffic to site in fact Ed Bott is very commonly does both sides of the arguement to cause fights to cause numbers. So anything by him is not worth a cracker.

    Only section of the PC market to grow in sales by IDC numbers has been chromebooks.

    Chromebooks of overall sales is current at 5 percent up from 1 percent 12 months ago.

    bw IDC tells you the number of Chromebook buyers is growing. Result so is the number of Chromebook users.

  40. bw says:

    The pall of flop-sweat hangs over the whole screed.

    Smack of Rudyard Kipling! Please post more!

    It reminds me of that old saying: “The definition of ‘crazy’ is doing the same thing over and over—and expecting a different result each time.”

    No doubt that is true, however trite and not up to your previous effort, but you have to realize that the same result for Microsoft would be a huge success. They are running at an $80B revenue rate and making enough money to run more than half of the state’s budgets in the USA. I am sure that they would love to have that go on and on!

  41. bw says:

    what worries investors …

    You are not an investor, so it is not very likely that you would actually know what they worry about. In reality, they worry about everything under the sun. At least that is what the reports say at the end of the day on the evening news.

    “Investors were worried about Greece leaving the EU…Investors were worried about the Fed moving away from QE…Investors were worried about continued unemployment…Investors were worried that lower unemployment would increase wages and lower profits…” And the beat goes on.

    Microsoft stock has been making a run upwards as of late, seemingly spurred on by the favorable financials and public confidence in their new products.

  42. bw says:

    BW, is confused in regards to Chromebooks…I use mine all the damn time

    If you are telling the truth about your own use, you are one of the very few. If you google for “chrome book sales” you see a number of articles like:

    It isn’t like they just came out. It has been over two years.

    “To put things in perspective, as of April 2013 all Chromebooks combined have managed to achieve 7/10 of 1 percent of the usage of Windows 8 PCs worldwide. If you want to extol Chromebooks, you better quit knocking Windows 8! 🙂

    SJVN is a bigger Linux optimist than even Pogson it appears.

  43. oiaohm says:

    bw what worries investors is what the future incomes will look like. This is something you have a big problem getting your head around.

    We are seeing a lot of things putting the future income stability at risk.

  44. bw says:

    This may mean their SEC filings will no longer list “Windows” as a line-item…

    I think they will still break out major sections of their business separately although they never had to do that. Look at the way Apple does it, no breakdown at all. The only thing that really matters to investors is the bottom line anyway. Whatever they say in their narratives never overcomes financial performance.

  45. ram says:

    It used to be when a notebook’s price was discounted far enough people would buy it and install (one flavor or another) of Linux or BSD on it (and gasp! sometimes even OS/2). Now with UEFI those devices are worthless. Even recovering parts out of them is uneconomical, so they are inevitably heading for landfill. What a waste of resources.

    Meanwhile have you seen what is happening happening to the prices of (often used) non UEFI hardware? Here we even have retail stores opening up and specializing in such hardware, and they are doing good business too!

  46. Michael Rudas says:

    I couldn’t get your link to work, Mr. Pogson, so here’s mine:

    Once you strip away the half-heated exhortations and hoary, mealy-mouthed business platitudes, there’s not a whole lot left. The pall of flop-sweat hangs over the whole screed. It reminds me of that old saying: “The definition of ‘crazy’ is doing the same thing over and over—and expecting a different result each time.”

  47. dougman says:

    BW, is confused in regards to Chromebooks, or just ignorant again of solid facts.

    BW, mentions that Chromebooks are only able to capture 10% of the market, meanwhile in the real world… worldwide PC sales have dropped more than 10-percent in the last quarter alone.

    Its a riot how all the trolls say the Chromebook is crap, really? I use mine all the damn time.

    In an interview, Stephen Baker, NPD’s Vice President of Industry Analysis for Consumer Technology, said, that “In the last eight months Chromebooks have snagged 20 percent to 25 percent of the U.S. market for laptops that cost less than $300.” Indeed, by NPD’s numbers they are the fastest-growing part of the PC market. Baker added that “Chromebooks have come out of nowhere to claim about 5 percent of the total PC market.”

    The Chromebook, in particular, Barker continued, is “growing for lots of reason. First and foremost, even cheap Chromebooks come with better hardware in this iteration.” In addition, Chrome OS now “allows much more off-line activity, the Chromebook is no longer an always online device.” Finally, “Google has spent significant money to promote the Chromebook and explain how it works to consumers.”

    Chromebooks are finding customers not just because of Google’s efforts. “Outside of what Google is doing, the computer industry is flying from the old PC center. Everyone is looking for new processes and partners. It’s not the same old business. Microsoft’s partners are looking for new relationships, forcing Microsoft to compete with its old partners. Google came into the market with a product that meets a need and it’s a good alternative to the same old stuff.”

    Now, Acer, Asus, HP, Lenovo, and Samsung are all now selling Chromebooks. In addition, Chromebooks that are now sold in 6,600 retails stores including Best Buy and Wal-Marts. Chromebook is now in the business retail channel now from Staples, Fry’s Electronics, Office Depot, OfficeMax, and TigerDirect.

    “To make Chromebooks more attractive to enterprises, Google has recently inked deals with Citrix and VMware to bring business applications to Chromebooks, along with packaged apps”

  48. lpbear wrote, “Microsoft has always been a messed up company but they are really heading the wrong direction now.”

    A recent announcement shows they are reorganizing. This may mean their SEC filings will no longer list “Windows” as a line-item… They hide their price to consumers. They seem intent on hiding the bad news for the client division from investors. We should know in a week whether that is true.

  49. matchrocket says:

    bw wrote: “Yet when one tells Pogson or oiaohm that Microsoft seems healthy…”

    bw is in auto-troll mode. You are a Microsoft troll bw. You just repeat the same old line that Microsoft is its same old money-making self. And that’s supposed to wash away all its troubles.

    Sorry, it doesn’t work that way. Microsoft is in deep trouble. Deep, deep trouble. And so far everything they’ve tried to dig themselves out hasn’t worked. All your troll remarks, all your troll “wisdom”, all your troll intercourse isn’t worth shit bw. You’re not helping Microsoft here, if anything you’re making things worse for them.

    Anyway, glad you showed up. I was beginning to think Microsoft trimmed you out of their budget.

  50. dougman says:

    M$ is NOT healthy, there have been discussions and payoffs to departing M$ personnel, to keep their mouth shut over deceptive accounting practices, can you say ‘ENRON’?

    Their “record sales” is a farce, wanna know why? I explained the exact reasoning some time ago, seems bw has a failing memory or would rather you just forget.

    Here take a peek:

    “Microsoft’s ‘licences sold’ numbers include copies of Windows sold to PC makers, so they tell us what the channel has been willing to buy or what volume customers have swallowed rather than what’s actually being deployed on new machines.”

    I’d argue 90%+ of ‘licenses sold’ are sales from MSFT to PC makers with 10% accounting for direct sales to consumers.

    The 90%+ doesn’t give any indication as to:

    (a) how many of those PCs are actually sold to an end user,
    (b) how many that are ‘sold’ to an end user are returned,
    (c) how MSFT prices its Win7 licenses to PC makers vs. Win8 licenses.
    I’d expect:
    (a) not many – given the slowdown in PC growth and the poor profit results of the big PC makers,
    (b) a lot of Win8 machines being returned,
    (c) Win7 license cost >>>>> Win 8 license cost so that PC makers are compelled to buy Win8 or face no profit margin on a Win7 machine.

    It’s all academic, really, because this whole Win8 episode has been a failure for MSFT of epic proportions. All that shareholders’ money wasted on software (ie. Metro) that no-one really wants.

    Win8 = EPIC FAIL.

    Even Forbes hates Windows 8:

    I believe that Microsoft as we know it may not be around in another decade. There’s hardly a single tech industry trend line pointing in Redmond’s favor right now, and some of those curves are about to get a lot steeper, real fast.

    One of my favorite Billy quotes:

    “Microsoft looks at new ideas, they don’t evaluate whether the idea will move the industry forward, they ask, ‘how will it help us sell more copies of Windows?’”
    –Bill Gates, The Seattle Weekly, (April 30, 1998)

  51. dougman says:

    Windows 8 worse is then Vista!!….People actually prefer Vista says survey.

    Time magazine calls it a strategic blunder!

    The whole idea with M$ Windows these days is to get the public buying, buying, buying, and subscribing, subscribing, subscribing. If this isn’t modern day slavery nothing is. Don’t be a M$ slave.

    M$ has been long in thinking of a subscription based model for its fugly OS, how might this work?

    1. Buyers and OEMs pay an initial fee upfront for a license, say $50.00

    2. The first month of usage for that key is free, thereafter Windows will only boot in “Safe Mode”. Note: sounds familiar doesn’t it

    3. Next month, on the first day user’s PC checks with MS servers to see if the “lease” to operate in “Normal Mode” has been extended upto the end of that month.

    4. User makes a payment before end of lease, or through Safe Mode, to extend usage to the next month.

    Don’t be a contentious old troll like bw, be ahead of the curve. As Simon Sinek mentions, “People don’t buy what you do; they buy why you do it. And if you talk about what you believe, you will attract those who believe what you believe. But why is it important to attract those who believe what you believe? Something called the law of diffusion of innovation, and if you don’t know the law, you definitely know the terminology. The first two and a half percent of our population are our innovators. The next 13 and a half percent of our population are our early adopters. The next 34 percent are your early majority, your late majority and your laggards.”

  52. bw says:

    Yet when one tells Pogson or oiaohm that Microsoft seems healthy in spite of it all and had a record quarter last time, they say that is only because of the one-time boost that they got from Windows 8 sales of upgrades. It is hard to reconcile your belief that it is deficient with the results in the market place.

    It might be more efficient for you fellows to just post a URL to whatever dweeb site you are using to get your ideas. Then you wouldn’t have to type so much and misspell words.

  53. dougman says:

    Today I read this:

    Then came across a really good comment that further drives how M$ is at the end of its rope:

    ” the whole Windows 8/Windows RT/Metro UI ecosystem is already dead for all practical purposes, and every day brings a new data point that reinforces that notion.

    Tens of thousands of advance analysts and testers told Microsoft many months ago that Metro UI was a horrible interface, particularly on PCs, WHICH DO NOT NEED touchscreen interfaces in the first place. This latter fact was proved two years ago when vendors tried to convince consumers that the next “improved” laptop that they must buy had a touchscreen, and that whole push flew about as well as a lead balloon. And yet Microsoft obviously learned nothing from that fiasco.

    And then you have a few hundred million enterprise and government users performing tasks like CAD/CAM design, accounting spreadsheets and auto title registration on their PCs. Did Microsoft REALLY believe these millions were going to lean over their desks thousands of times a day to inaccurately poke smudges on their vertical “touch-screen” monitors instead of just click, click, clicking their mouses 100 times faster and with 1/1000 the effort as screen-poking? What on earth was Microsoft thinking?

    And to top this off, Microsoft really screwed the pooch by releasing Windows RT, Windows 8, Surface RT and Surface Pro all at about the same time, and then 100% confusing almost all non-technical consumers about what was what and what was the same and what was different among the bunch. As a consequence, weaknesses perceived in one of the bunch are indubitably linked to all of them in the minds of consumers since they were confused about what was what to start with. Thus if a consumer hates Windows 8 they’re not going to want to try a Windows RT device and vice versa.

    So, we have Windows 8 which is already (rightfully) the most hated operating system of all time, and Windows RT, which many are finding out is essentially useless, and you’ve got a half-baked version of Windows RT embodied by Metro UI in Windows 8. And then Microsoft spends 1.5 billion on a horribly confusing advertising campaign about all of this. You’ve pretty much got a situation as if Ford and Coke had introduced the Edsel and New Coke together in a 1.5 billion dollar joint ad campaign. How do you suppose that would have worked out?

    And even worse for Microsoft, the world is moving at a MUCH faster pace than when Microsoft had it’s last major disaster, namely Vista, in which they had three years to “finally get it right” when they released Windows 7, which was basically just Vista that worked.

    Today, Microsoft doesn’t have three years to get it right, they have six months. But they don’t really even have six months because they botched things so badly to start with. Microsoft has already poisoned the well with their massive product-release and marketing incompetence, trying to stuff the hated Windows 8 down the throats of the masses and the enterprise when tens of thousands of advanced testers and analysts told them it would be a disaster, and producing over-priced, half-baked, me-too products like the Surface RT. Not to mention the execrable Metro UI which was ripped off from the 1996 AOL interface, only WITHOUT being the least intuitive!

    In six months, the debate will be over. The evidence will be overwhelming by then that the Windows 8 ecosystem is the biggest disaster in the history of Microsoft, and furthermore, their “partners” will also have lost billions as well by uncritically gulping gigantic cups of the Windows 8 ecosystem Kool-Aid.”

  54. lpbbear says:

    “The OEMs, with little to go on, seemed to have been praying for a general rise in the overall tide that would be brought about by Windows 8”

    Windows 8 is a piece of crap. No one really likes it. The best I have heard, even from rabid MS supporters, is that “it grows on you” or “its not bad once you get used to it. Its crap.

    “and some sort of renaissance of enthusiasm for conventional PCs that could mimic a phone or tablet in operation. You are probably correct in going with the conventional wisdom that such a thing was a bad idea from the start, but that is no reason for an OEM to abandon Windows in favor of Linux.”

    Between them the majority of OEM’s don’t have enough common sense to make such a common sense move as abandoning Microsoft. They will blindly follow Microsoft right down the crapper. Windows “8.1” is getting bad reviews and Ballmer is “reorganizing” as I type. The company has hit its peak. Its all downhill for Microsoft from here. If they keep trying to shove crap like Windows 8 down consumers throats Microsoft is done. My guess is that Microsoft, in its panic to stay viable, will buy up one or two hardware companies, Dell probably, maybe someone else in an attempt to control PC hardware. Just throwing their diminishing supply of money down the crapper. Microsoft has always been a messed up company but they are really heading the wrong direction now.

  55. matchrocket says:

    As a Microsoft troll bw, your opinions are worthless and any “facts” you recite are suspect. But please, continue. What you choose to write in defense of your beloved Microsoft is telling. You are telling us where it hurts.

  56. bw says:

    If I was any of the OEMs after reading this article…I would be concerned about the future of Windows 8

    But you are not, just an unlettered soul bottom-feeding off the really slow folk of the world. That is why you seem to have missed the essence of the articles that you cite.

    The OEMs, with little to go on, seemed to have been praying for a general rise in the overall tide that would be brought about by Windows 8 and some sort of renaissance of enthusiasm for conventional PCs that could mimic a phone or tablet in operation. You are probably correct in going with the conventional wisdom that such a thing was a bad idea from the start, but that is no reason for an OEM to abandon Windows in favor of Linux.

    Indeed, the recent 2-year history of the market has shown that a Linux notebook, even if under the aegis of Google itself as with the chromebook, can only garner about 10% of the sales volume of new editions compared to Windows RT models. That is not going to look like a ray of hope to the OEMs.

    More likely, the OEMs are going to have to rely on their own initiatives with interesting form factors to create some chic of their own to mimic Apple albeit certainly at a more appealing price point. Bring on the titanium!

    BTW, with your website pushing Naval Aviation images, why don’t you chime in and give oiaohm a clue about the dynamics of flight. If you know anything, of course.

  57. dougman says:

    If I was any of the OEMs after reading this article:

    I would be concerned about the future of Windows 8.

    “Hmmmm, Windows 8 not selling well. lets roll-out Linux or Android stat!”

    This is why you also see packaged apps for Chrome coming down the pike and OEMs looking, or soon to be looking at Android on the laptop. Samsung put out one recently as I recall.

    Also, when you see the M$ top eight priorities:

    You can start to see the cracks already. 🙂

  58. dougman says:

    Well, when you see people on CNET saying M$ is crapp and then read this:

    You know something is amiss. Until Ballmer goes, nothing will get better.

    The next iteration of Windows will be called, Windows Nein. 🙂

  59. bw says:

    They may even quit recommending that other OS.

    Dream on. The sizzle in personal electronics has moved on to the iPads and iPhones and their clones, but the basic business for conventional PCs, both laptops and desktops, is still a very substantial business for both Microsoft and the Wintel OEMs. And don’t forget Apple. As long as they are making tens of billions of dollars annually from that business, they are going to keep it going and will all stay with it.

    Not so certain about the phone and tablet business, though. Apple is doing great, profit and revenue wise, although they are seeing some pull-backs in this business as well as PCs. Samsung is making some good progress in phones but not so much in tablets. The rest are madly scrambling for scraps and beating each other up on price, no one making much of a profit. I see a massive shakeout in the phone and tablet arena long before Microsoft ever suffers any sort of loss in PC OS software.

    It’s rumored to split soon too.

    lol. If they do it couple more time, maybe you can afford to buy a share! They are not looking like fair custodians of the people’s trust, though, trying to warp the process to keep themselves in charge:

  60. dougman says:

    Chromebooks and packaged apps will be the wave of the future, along with integration with Android apps.

  61. matchrocket says:

    The bigger they are the harder they fall couldn’t be more true, especially in Microsoft’s case. They are in the process of imploding. The weight of their monopolies are beginning to suffocate them.

    Those are just generalizations. The specifics will become apparent as the months grind on. I’m enjoying this more and more. The only thing that baffles me is the price of Microsoft’s stock. It seems to go up with every release of bad news. Overall Google’s stock keeps rising and is constantly recommended to buy. It’s rumored to split soon too.

    “The Rise and Fall of Microsoft”, where is it? It should be showing up at Barnes and Nobel any day now.

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