IDC Records The Decline Of Wintel

“IDC’s quarterly PC forecast from May projected worldwide PC shipment declines of -11.7% in the second quarter of 2013 (2Q13), -4.7% in the third quarter, and -1.6% in the fourth quarter, resulting in total annual growth of -7.8% for 2013. This follows a decline of -13.3% in the first quarter of 2013 and -4.0% for all of 2012. The results for May are behind pace for achieving the projected 2Q13 growth rates, although stronger June results could still make up most if not all of the difference.”

see May PC Shipments Reflect Slow Second Quarter, According to IDC – prUS24202913.

The trend is clear, decline of shipments of legacy PCs and the rate of decline is increasing with the passage of time and the ascendance of small cheap computers, including thin clients.

Since M$ has the lion’s share of the legacy PC shipments, it also has the lion’s share of the decline in OS shipments for legacy PCs. M$ also has only a tiny share of small cheap computers. Thus, this decline is a decline of the vision of Bill Gates, one licence per hard drive. There is no place to hide the obscene profits of M$ in the tiny prices of small cheap computers, so they run */Linux and FLOSS if makers want sales.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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8 Responses to IDC Records The Decline Of Wintel

  1. bw says:

    I think your computer slipped a cog or two here. The quarterly revenues for Windows Division was $5.7B which included the $1.1B of Windows 8 deferred revenue. All you can say is that the previous quarters would have looked better than they did had Microsoft somehow taken that revenue earlier. It is still Windows revenue for the year and overall, they are still growing.

  2. bw, denying reality, wrote, “Microsoft revenues are increasing still and that only means that the overall market is increasing as well”

    1. IDC and Gartner both say unit shipments are down a lot…
    2. M$’s posted revenue for the client division was unchanged from 2012 to 2013 for Q1 ($4.614billion) but they had to include $1.1billion of “deferred” revenue to get that in 2013. “Windows Division revenue increased, due mainly to the recognition of $1.1 billion of revenue related to the Windows Upgrade Offer.”
    3. “Sales and marketing expenses increased $659 million or 30%, reflecting advertising costs associated with Windows 8 and Surface. Cost of revenue increased $598 million or 41%, reflecting product costs associated with Surface and Windows 8.” Oh Oh! M$ is having to work for a living because the cash cow is drying up.
  3. matchrocket says:

    bw pissing in the wind wrote: “They don’t directly bear on one another.”

    bw, you forgot, you’re a Microsoft troll. Your opinion isn’t worth shit.

  4. bw says:

    That big share is declining

    Hard to say for sure, since PCs, tablets, phones, and other computerish devices are like comparing apples, oranges, grapes, and rutabagas. They don’t directly bear on one another.

    I look at the market in terms of what is actually being sold. In the case of Microsoft, they are mostly selling software although there is Xbox and Surface and keyboards and mice as well.

    The bulk of their income is from software for what are familiar to most as “PCs”. Microsoft sells only a small bit of software in the tablet and phone arenas, although they do sell some, plus they get royalty payments for their patents from many of the hardware makers of those devices.

    Interestingly enough, there are very few companies that sell any sort of thing in competition with them. Apple makes their own OS software and in not likely to ever buy from any outsider and most of the rest of the phone and tablet makers use the Android OS and do not pay anyone other than their internal staff to use it. You are left with the notion that, tiny as it might be, Microsoft dominates the tablet and phone OS software market itself.

    Overall, though, Microsoft revenues are increasing still and that only means that the overall market is increasing as well. Whether Microsoft is actually losing share or not can be argued, but it comes down to the fact that they are making more money today than yesterday and so either the market itself is expanding to supply the increase or they are increasing their share.

  5. ram says:

    IDC’s definition of PC is also weighted toward Microsoft. Since many ‘PC Motherboard’ manufacturers now only make UEFI-Microsoft8 compatible motherboards the Linux community is largely moving to ‘cheap servers’ which are being used as (powerful) desktop workstations.

  6. bw wrote, “it really does not matter how many other device makers get a piece of the pie as long as Microsoft continues to get a giant share of the revenues from the personal computer software market.”

    That big share is declining, too. MacOS and GNU/Linux are eating away at that and now so is Android/Linux.

  7. bw says:

    this decline is a decline of the vision of Bill Gates, one licence per hard drive

    Au contraire! Bill’s vision was “a computer in every home”, of course, and he set about doing just that, succeeding so well that he was directly responsible for most of those computers, at least in the early going, and he became world famous in the process. Rich, too.

    I think that Bill is absolutely delighted at the prospect of there being a computer in every pocket as it almost seems these days. Maybe even moreso. I myself have 3 “conventional PCs”, 3 Android devices, two cell phones, two TVs that have built-in internet wi-fi connections, and other devices, such as a wi-fi printer, that might qualify as a computer in pinch.

    I personally think that it really does not matter how many other device makers get a piece of the pie as long as Microsoft continues to get a giant share of the revenues from the personal computer software market. Don’t you think so too?

  8. dougman says:

    The future is not M$. In light of this, I can see M$ adopting Android as well and creating their own tablet.

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