Shipments of GNU/Linux PCs in India

India_GNU-Linux_Share_SC

If we suppose for a moment that Statcounter’s data, above, represents share of installed base of PCs, you can see a steady growth of share at the same time that India as an emerging economy is ramping up numbers of PCs in a big way.

India’s internet (2012)

2% Number of rural Indians using the internet
25% Growth in Indian internet users in India over the past 12 months.
59% Number of Indians who only access the internet via mobile devices

So, GNU/Linux is growing share in a market that’s growing installed base by 10% per annum currently. In 2012, 11 million PCs were sold in India. In 2006, the number was 5.4 million, a doubling in just 7 years. That’s hundreds of thousands of legacy PCs per annum installed with GNU/Linux and installations are growing 10% per annum or more. Meanwhile tens of millions of small cheap computers running Android/Linux are being bought by an emerging market in India. To the extent that the middle-class continues to grow, India is set for explosive growth of FLOSS for years to come.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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67 Responses to Shipments of GNU/Linux PCs in India

  1. oiaohm says:

    bw even inside Microsoft you are starting to see the behaviour I am defining where key staff fly in but the Majority of the developers live in a lower wage country. This is not Australia unique thing.

    Mining in Australia is done fly in fly out. This method and this is coming part of software development.

    bw I call this scary behaviour. Documented behaviour that companies are doing more and more is not something to just disregard.

    The buy a new one is also another problem.

    Bw we are at end of an age. Where the world goes from here could get really horrible.

    http://epcmworld.com/news/main-news/automated-robotic-mining
    When I say horible I really do mean it. Mining does not require humans as much. In fact it possible the first industry that will end up human-less completely.

    Bw we are heading into a age where you either work cheep or don’t work at all.

  2. bw says:

    So IT staff live overseas and fly in and fly out as required.

    If you believe that, it is no wonder that you are in last place.

  3. bw says:

    sooner or later GNU/Linux will be the norm

    I can’t deny that. Your calculations show that this will happen in India within 500 years or so. It may take longer in more affluent countries, but I guess it is inevitable.

  4. oiaohm says:

    Robert Pogson you call it harsh. Its the reality.

    So IT staff live overseas and fly in and fly out as required. The reality is the world is changing. Changing very quickly in scary ways.

  5. ram wrote, “The Australian education system, particularly the higher education system, has been turning out clowns for the last 15 years or so.”

    Ouch! That’s harsh.

    The world is a dynamic place. No one is owed a living simply for offering a product as M$ did. A switch from Australia to Romania is pretty dramatic. I hope someone in the Australian government noticed. My experience has been that many civil servants, being employed, couldn’t care less about others’ business.

  6. ram says:

    With all this talk about outsourcing and costs with respect to Australia and other places I just have to make a comment.

    Presently my company has moved most of our (all Linux) IT operations to Romania from Australia. Many of our staff have migrated to Romania (a tough move as most had to learn Romanian — which they tell me is close to Portugese and Italian). Why did we move these operations?

    #1 Cost — it cost less to house, feed, pay the utilities for several employees, and supply a 100 MByte/sec Internet connection there than our POWER BILL was in Australia.

    #2 Connectivity — They have 100 MByte/sec (and faster) connections available at a reasonable cost. Australia mostly has dialup or sporadic ADSL 1 (despite Telstra and other propaganda to the contrary).

    #3 Educated Population — The Romanian education system has produced a large pool of numerate and multilingually literate people. The Australian education system, particularly the higher education system, has been turning out clowns for the last 15 years or so.

    #4 Transparency — Romanian government officials and policies, while not perfect by any means, are not openly hostile to business. ICAC investigations in Australia reveal both the Liberal and Labor parties are hopelessly corrupt and extremely hostile to innovation.

    Clearly some place that used to be thought of as “First World” are rapidly declining to Third World status. Other places in the world are moving up. It all has to do with their leadership.

  7. bw wrote, “If someone has a Linux based need, they will order Linux, but that is not the norm or even anything beyond a rare occurrence.”

    A lot of new applications/services are being developed for GNU/Linux. Since the future is infinite and the past finite, sooner or later GNU/Linux will be the norm.

  8. oiaohm says:

    bw developing and testing for windows can in fact be better in a Linux contained system.

    Linux base is far better at creating and running virtual networks.

    –The Indians have to use whatever technology the contractor dictates and the contractor will dictate that the code be compatible with their product. If someone has a Linux based need, they will order Linux, but that is not the norm or even anything beyond a rare occurrence.–

    This is why you are a idiot bw. Some of the reason why USA developers are losing to India ones in production quality is the fact the USA developers don’t use Linux world developed techs. India developers are in fact that are smart enough to split the clients requirements from the tools they can use.

    Linux build servers can run Windows virtual machines. Build windows code using Microsoft compliers. Automatically run regression tests, UI tests….. All these things save issues appearing.

    At the most a request to India developers forces them to Linux/Windows Hybrid. Yes client wants a Windows program. The Hybrid can do more automated testing.

    Cheaper labour combined with more automated tested the US developers don’t stand a chance.

    See the problem now bw. The developers from india are using what the client dictates + extras. Those extras include Linux.

    In fact Linux orders of software is not exactly rare. Bw helpdesks in india and lot of places don’t run Windows. A help desk normally does not require Windows to function.

    This is the big thing. Lot of the push away from desktop to browser base traces to increasing Linux usage. Browser based means you don’t have to worry of a machine in your network is Windows Linux or OS X as long as the server works you are fine.

    The change in reported orders do show a clear trend away from the current day desktop to a Standard compliant desktop.

  9. bw says:

    lots of outsourcing goes on for GNU/Linux desktops

    For whom? Companies outsource for code development that is compatible with their needs. We don’t technically outsource since our India location developers are our direct employees, but the result is more or less the same. The work is done in India rather than the US by Indian software engineers.

    The Indians have to use whatever technology the contractor dictates and the contractor will dictate that the code be compatible with their product. If someone has a Linux based need, they will order Linux, but that is not the norm or even anything beyond a rare occurrence.

  10. bw wrote, “The great bulk of outsourcing is for Windows compatible work and the Indians must use whatever pertains to the contractor’s specifications. They have no choice at all in this.”

    For years it has been stated that one of the 50 things holding back GNU/Linux was the lack of skilled professionals familiar with GNU/Linux. India is cranking them out by the thousands. Outsourcing requests do list “Linux” as a requirement. India does supply them. It is not surprising that the majority are for that other OS because of the mess on the desktop but lots of outsourcing goes on for GNU/Linux desktops.

    Development

    Helpdesk and IT Notice those guys list Linux first…

    So, no, they do support GNU/Linux in several ways.

  11. oiaohm says:

    matchrocket really even doing MS Troll role there is no requirement to state the stupidity he just did.

  12. matchrocket says:

    oiaohm so observantly wrote: “bw problem is you are a idiot.”

    Actually oiaohm, we don’t know if he is really an idiot or not, but the role he plays as a Microsoft troll forces him to be an idiot.

  13. oiaohm says:

    bw problem is you are a idiot.

    The roles that are being done by people from India working on Visa in many companies go as high as CEO of IT operations. These are the ones who write the future direction of IT in Companies.

    This is a major change they are going from being contracted todo some task to being the ones writing how the tasks are done.

    bw you really need to take a closer look at what your company is doing. In most cases you will find the India staff are moving up in the ranks and one day will be the CEO working under visa because they are cheaper.

    This is the problem India people are cheaper and more effective to supervise India operations. End result is no USA or Australian cits in mix.

    H1B visa squeese is not stopping the process. If you look closely all it done is seen other areas of the USA miss out on workers as IT takes over the majority of issued H1B visas.

    Call centre out sourcing is a case of stupidity of CEO not looking at the working examples. Cisco systems did global call centres first and really wrote the book how to do it properly. Place you call centres around the world 8 hours apart. This way no one has to work at night. Massive improvement in call centre quality.

  14. bw says:

    There is a reason a lot of IT has been out-sourced to India. The Indians are good at IT and they don’t need you or M$ telling them what to do with their hardware

    What Indians want to do with their hardware has absolutely nothing to do with outsourcing. The great bulk of outsourcing is for Windows compatible work and the Indians must use whatever pertains to the contractor’s specifications. They have no choice at all in this.

    The main reason that the outsourcing goes to India, though, is indeed that they have capable engineers to do the work. There is more outsourcing pressure today due to the US policies that continually squeeze the availability of H1B visas that allow these engineers to work in the US on site.

    My company has had to establish their own development center in India due to these limits and the corresponding need to have close supervision of activities there since they must be closely coordinated with associated development in the US in order to meet release train milestones.

    As an aside, we tried a similar sort of arrangement with Chinese centers, but it was not successful. India does continue to contribute a lot, though. We have been able to get visa for a number of those engineers, too, and bring over those that we can.

    One thing that I have noticed is that salaries for developers in India are about 1/3 of those for what I would deem equivalent positions to US jobs. An H1B gets substantially more than that, although still less than US citizens. We have a lot of H1Bs from China and Russia as well.

    Years ago many companies used Indian centers for support calls and the language difficulties became legendary after a few years. What happened, I found, was that there were a lot of smart people in India that had very good English spoken language skills who were organized by Indian entrepreneurs for contract support center operations. The activities, though, were conducted on Western time zones which meant that the Indian workers were up during the night which was daytime hours in Western areas. Only a small percentage of humans can apparently function as night owls for extended periods of time and after a few years the original casts were burnt out and changed jobs or, better yet, got visas to go to Western countries. Their replacements were not as skilled in terms of language, at least, and contractors started looking for other climes to build centers. Ireland won a lot of these deals.

  15. matchrocket says:

    Wow, the Microsoft trolls really, really don’t want India to succeed. They have a lot to say about India and none of it is good. India must be doing something right. I think it’s safe to say we can expect some major setbacks for Microsoft in India in the near future. If you want to prove me wrong bw and Maou you can shut up about it right now.

  16. Maou Sadao, wrote wishfully, “Outsourcing to India is already a thing of the past again.”

    CIO.com: How India’s IT Outsourcing Leaders Can Stay on Top: “Indian IT service providers grew at a combined annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32 percent between 2005 and 2008 compared to just 7 percent for Western outsourcers, according to outsourcing consultancy and research firm Information Services Group (ISG).
    In the last three years, growth has slowed. Between 2009 and 2012, Western providers delivered just a 0.4 percent CAGR while Indian outsourcers fell to 16 percent, according to ISG.”

  17. oiaohm says:

    Maou Sadao out source to india is a thing of pass this is correct. Using visas to bring in staff from India that are cheaper to employ than locals is current day.

    IT staff take the majority of the work Visa’s these days issues in countries for Foreign workers. Yes this includes Australia and the USA.

    Maou Sadao yes you are not up with the times. Even Microsoft is using more and more workers from India in the USA. The excuse is they cannot get suitable trained USA personal. Please note its excuse. Law firms in the USA have run courses on how to advertising in the USA and find no one so you can justify employing from India and other cheap places on a visa. Yes in one video of one of those events show high up Microsoft staff attending.

    Maou Sadao its nothing more than pure greed that put India in the place it is to change the future paths.

  18. Maou Sadao says:

    Mr. Pogson, you’re behind the times, as always. Outsourcing to India is already a thing of the past again. Companies have outsourced all they could. And that was cheap IT labor. But even with such cheap IT labor many companies found that the quality was not up to the standards the companies themselves or their customers expected.

  19. bw wrote, “Do you seriously believe that US or European or any other area IT managers are waiting to see what happens in India so that they can adopt those practices in their own organizations?”

    In education for example, a minor number of school districts have deployed 1:1 student:PC ratios. Many found it was too expensive but they see Aakash making headway. Emerging economies skip the mistakes of the established economies and the established economies could learn a thing or two about getting by with less.

    In my own work I found the value of two feeble PCs was much greater than the value of one powerful PC because more students could be making good use of the network. Places like India and China are in the driver’s seat when it comes to getting the best value for the money. That’s something the rest of the world certainly should watch.

    There is a reason a lot of IT has been out-sourced to India. The Indians are good at IT and they don’t need you or M$ telling them what to do with their hardware.

  20. Maou Sadao says:

    Chromebooks? The NSA says “Thanks!”

  21. oiaohm says:

    bw successful migrations and conversions do effect IT managers.

    This is why so much effort was put into trying to stop Munich. Including offering Munich deals no one else was offered.

    Unfortunately there is another problem. The dominate overseas important IT workforce world wide comes from India.

    Yes the next IT manager employed by a company could be from India. This would not even be strange bw.

    Welcome to problem. What is happening in India effects the source of about 25 percent of the global IT managers directly. Because that is their home country.

  22. bw says:

    What’s with insulting India

    Recognizing fact is not being insulting at all. Do you seriously believe that US or European or any other area IT managers are waiting to see what happens in India so that they can adopt those practices in their own organizations? I know you are smarter than that. The state of “conventional wisdom” in IT is being established and changed in the more affluent parts of the world that have the luxury of being able to afford whatever becomes a better answer to evolving problems.

  23. bw wrote, “All of their market areas are pretty firmly established, even India as discussed here.”

    Markets loaded with illegal copies are not really established because there are few sales. These are emerging markets for everyone and these days M$ will have to compete on price/performance like everyone else because */Linux is out there by the millions of units establishing mind-share.

    bw also wrote, “do they understand that success in India or China or Brazil or Russia does not provide any pull-through to other markets since these areas are not trendsetters?”

    What’s with insulting India, an ancient society known widely from Europe to Asia? It may be that USAians know nothing except their jobs have been outsourced to India but the rest of us know a billion people working hard to survive can do great things if they work together. In my lifetime India has changed from a conglomeration of small states fighting over scarce resources to being a model for solving problems democratically. The common people in India now have voices and use them regularly. That is something many nations wish to have. In science and technology India is moving ahead rapidly avoiding many errors and they do set trends. India’s economic growth is the envy of the world. It should enable the government to fix many of the obvious problems in healthcare and education. The Aakash tablets have shipped by the millions. They currently ship about 900K per quarter, ahead of Apple in India. That’s far ahead of M$…

    bw also wrote, of the PC, “it still has its roots in the personal and private activities that made it a winner early on.”

    Uh,… no. For nearly a decade, the number one use of PCs has been networking with people and data. The entertainment/productivity stuff is still there but even that can be done on the web. There is still a good natural role for legacy PCs in business which tend to have plenty of roles in productivity of some kind but that’s not the case in homes. Many people do not have printers at home, for instance. We have one but it is only rarely used. Who needs paper these days at home? I can’t remember the last time I mailed a letter.

    bw also wrote, “The chromebook suffers from being useless when it is not connected and that still occurs frequently.”

    Google has provisions for off-line work and my network rarely goes down. I see a few brief outages annually, perhaps a few hours at most. I do work only 16×7 so that’s not really a problem because I can choose my hours to work. I also have other things to do besides work with computers just like most other people.

    In emerging markets wireless is largely leaping past wired so multiple access points takes care of many/most outages.

  24. bw wrote, “Well, they have had two years now and it has not succeeded. How long do you wait?”

    Uh… salesmen actually do something. How many salesmen did they have two years ago compared to the current project? Probably 10:20000. If they do their jobs, units will sell. The concept works. It just needs exposure. Schools are loving it.

    “The Chromebooks, as I see them, really are a strong tool for that online publishing that we want students to do in the classroom. The teachers who have the iPads have been actually kind of jealous of the teachers that have Chromebooks.”

    see Testimonials from Chromebook Education Users

  25. bw says:

    If it succeeds every retailer and every OEM and every consumer on the planet will know

    Well, they have had two years now and it has not succeeded. How long do you wait? Not you personally, since you are still waiting for Linux to triumph after 20 years of trying, and applaud 1.4% in India as encouraging. As the article says, RT has had a far better uptake.

  26. bw says:

    it’s in the face of M$ in their “established” markets

    All of their market areas are pretty firmly established, even India as discussed here. Google has no choice but to try to sell into the existing retail channels since their on-line initiatives have been so unproductive. Even so, why do you suppose that Google would try so hard to crack the US market rather than going after these emerging nations? Does Google not realized that “India represents 1/7th of the worlds population”? Are they just as foolish as we trolls?

    lol

    Or do they understand that success in India or China or Brazil or Russia does not provide any pull-through to other markets since these areas are not trendsetters? Matchrocket believes quite the opposite. Maybe he is an undiscovered genius and not the drooling oaf that he appears to be on first look.

    My own opinion, which is equally useless since there is no way for me to directly capitalize on it, is that the idea of a “internet thin client laptop” which the chromebook concept seems to be, is either very ahead of its time or very obsolete, depending on your frame of reference. A PC was something that a person could use privately and personally to do things like write a document or computer program, read a book, manage personal information, and the like. As it obtained better and better connectivity, it grew into a social apparatus as well, but it still has its roots in the personal and private activities that made it a winner early on.

    The chromebook suffers from being useless when it is not connected and that still occurs frequently. If we always had wifi handy, cell phones would disappear, at least service companies would be in a lot of trouble. So the need for connectivity puts the chromebook too far ahead of its time to be much of a success.

    (as an aside, I do see that beginning to happen around here. Brighthouse has hotspots almost continuously up and down the main roads in my town and, if I park my car in the bank parking lot or similar spot, I can connect and send you my thoughts far from home, at no additional cost, whenever I please. Cell service may become the analog of the walls and walls of pay phones at airports and around cities that have disappeared with today’s cell phone proliferation.)

  27. matchrocket wrote, “It’s not intended to be a world wide roll out. Just the USA and a few stores in the UK. “

    Still, it’s in the face of M$ in their “established” markets. I doubt any corporation has the capacity for a global roll-out of any product with such intensity. This is probably Phase II of a five-phase plan for world-domination. If it succeeds every retailer and every OEM and every consumer on the planet will know that there is an alternative “desktop” PC available giving better price/performance than Wintel can manage. There are already early signs of success in government/business/education preferring to accept less flexibility for improved reliability/fewer problems.

  28. matchrocket says:

    bw the bigot doesn’t think 6,600 stores carrying Google’s Chromebooks isn’t too impressive. It’s not intended to be a world wide roll out. Just the USA and a few stores in the UK. But it doesn’t matter anyway. You’re a troll bw. In fact, you’re a bigot troll. What you think doesn’t matter. What you say doesn’t matter. You don’t make any difference at all. You want to know something about a bigot? They stop thinking when their bigotry kicks in. Your brain is worthless bw.

  29. bw says:

    From your cite:

    more than 6,600 stores around the world.

    Is that a lot? I don’t know for sure, but maybe you do. If you go with the world population at 7 billion people, 6600 stores would imply one for slightly more than a million people That seems sort of sparse to me, but I’m not in PC or electronics retail.

  30. Chrome browser is used by 750 million users according to Google… Those folks might like a browser with which they can do everything. That’s about what Chrome OS is. Retailers are giving a lot of shelf-space to Chromebooks. I doubt they would do that if sales were so grim: “In addition to Best Buy and Amazon.com, we’re excited to welcome several new retailers to the family. Starting today, Walmart will be making the newest Acer Chromebook, which has a 16GB Solid State Drive (SSD), available in approximately 2,800 stores across the U.S., for just $199. Look for Chromebooks coming to the laptop sections of a Walmart near you this summer.” In my experience it pays to advertise and offer the product to the public. That’s happening. They’ve also had a lot of success pushing the concept in governments and schools where reduced functionality and bother are appreciated.

  31. bw says:

    What about them? Do you have a point? Sales seem disappointing for Google Chromebook. See, for example, http://www.geek.com/news/chromebook-sales-are-terrible-even-compared-to-windows-rt-1552333/

    Besides, all you can get is Chrome OS with that. Doesn’t say it comes with Linux anywhere.

  32. bw wrote a lot, “Have you ever been to India? Know any Indians who have been here for a year or more who want to go back?”

    I have not been any closer than Saudi Arabia. I met many Indians there who commuted to/from Saudi Arabia. I have met Indians in Canada who often visit the “home country”. Some earn capital in Canada which they invest in India.

    “Also, Munich was not a very good example of what to do and is more along the lines of “Don’t let this happen to you!” in my estimation. But regardless, it is kind of old news. It started in 2003 and that was 10 years ago. Haven’t there been any things to crow about since then? Munich is an infinitesimal percentage of the business.”

    French government, their national police, Peugeot, developments in India, Russia, China, Brazil… all long after 2003. Munich was probably an early adopter so they got a lot of attention from M$ and M$’s fan-club. The important development in Munich was not that Munich was huge but that so much of Munich’s business could be run using FLOSS readily, about 90%. It’s just a matter of time before all their business can be run on FLOSS.

    “M$’s OS sells for 50% of the price of the PC

    I think that it sells to OEMs for a lot less than that. $50 is the usual estimate and that is with a $500 laptop, making it 10% again.”

    Oops, what about the $200 notebooks that bear M$’s office suite??? There aren’t any? Space lost on retail shelves for Wintel then… Acer Iron Gray 11.6″ C710-2487 Chromebook PC with Intel 847 Celeron Processor and Google Chrome Operating System

    Google’s ChromebookOops, they sold out…

  33. bw says:

    You think the world doesn’t envy that?

    Have you ever been to India? Know any Indians who have been here for a year or more who want to go back?

    Also, Munich was not a very good example of what to do and is more along the lines of “Don’t let this happen to you!” in my estimation. But regardless, it is kind of old news. It started in 2003 and that was 10 years ago. Haven’t there been any things to crow about since then? Munich is an infinitesimal percentage of the business.

    M$’s OS sells for 50% of the price of the PC

    I think that it sells to OEMs for a lot less than that. $50 is the usual estimate and that is with a $500 laptop, making it 10% again.

  34. bw wrote, “As I put it in a previous post, their business in not saving money, it is making money and any business that ends up in such an internal focus as to rely on software savings to show progress is in the last stages of commercial failure. It is like their kidneys have shut down.”

    Real businesses have to compete in the real world where efficiency matters. Spending money for something of no value while the competition has lower costs is a serious concern. Even the OEMs of PCs realize that selling GNU/Linux in a tough market is better for their margins than not, so they all sell GNU/Linux now.

    Further, Munich did not migrate to save money. NT was being killed and they needed the best OS and office suite for their business. They chose GNU/Linux and OpenOffice.org. Same for Peugeot and the French police. They got better software as well as huge savings.

    When all M$ sold was a client OS for 15% of the price of a PC bw’s argument made more sense. Now that M$’s OS sells for 50% of the price of the PC, it doesn’t. Bundling with the price of the PC may have hidden the cost to retail, but OEMs see it and they cannot ignore alternatives any longer. M$ snowed them with the idea of selling M$’s product but now that’s not selling and OEMs are paddling furiously to climb onto other boats.

    bw also wrote, “Just as the world does not seek to emulate India in terms of fashion and other trends, it does not look to Linux for any lead.”

    So, bw denies that the world values gold and jewels and Bollywood… Wishful thinking. The Indians set the lead long ago.

    India has a huge GDP growing at ~6.5% per annum. You think the world doesn’t envy that?

  35. bw says:

    I would bet it’s shrinking and not above 50% of PCs.

    Never bet on things you haven’t researched. Windows Division had revenues of $5.7B last quarter, including the $1.1B from Windows 8 upgrades that doesn’t happen all that often. They had revenues of $5.0B for servers and tools, and a whopping $6.1B in revenues for their business division, which is where the MS Office is scored.

    It is likely that we are talking about two different worlds here. I am mostly concerned with the commerce aspect of software sales and you seem to be fixated on counts of things like how many times some freebie is downloaded or what percentage of accesses to some website or another is done with a phone or with a Linux computer or with something else.

    Microsoft sells into a very broad, world-wide market and has a huge amount of product flow that generates a lot of cash. There is a lot of inertia in that system, whether you call it “lock-in” or anything else, and it is never going to change very rapidly.

    Most of their sales these days is into segments that have been long established and have become a familiar element in the weave of the fabric of most corporations. Sure there are exceptions and there are mavericks here and there who, like yourself, want to make a splash as a super prudent IT manager (or cheapskate as others put it), but mostly they buy and re-buy the Microsoft products as they have for a couple of decades now.

    As I put it in a previous post, their business in not saving money, it is making money and any business that ends up in such an internal focus as to rely on software savings to show progress is in the last stages of commercial failure. It is like their kidneys have shut down.

    A wholly different phenomenon is at work with business adaptation of tablets and phones. These devices extend the functions available to business and they have been adopted by many, but they augment the PCs in the organization, the do not replace them as they might in a home user scenario.

    To me, the use of Linux in some emerging market, such as India or China, only represents some unsold element of opportunity for Microsoft. It gives their salesmen a new place to go and a new audience for their sales pitches. If Microsoft cannot make their business case with these new buyers, then shame on them, but that has not been their history.

    Just as the world does not seek to emulate India in terms of fashion and other trends, it does not look to Linux for any lead. That role goes to Microsoft and, regardless of whether they accept or reject the offered trend, that is whom they look to for the next big thing in PCs. They now look to Apple for what comes next in phones, tablets, and music players as well. FLOSS does not lead, it mimics those leaders.

  36. oiaohm understated the tsunami, writing, “Dominate interface device is ceasing to be Microsoft dependant.”

    That suggests the change is M$’s monopoly being replaced with Google’s monopoly but the change is much more than that. Apple, Google, and now FireFox/Mozilla/Foxconn all will have a major slice of the pie. M$ will have to compete on price/performance if they want to remain a player just a few years from now. The change is not that one software is replaced by another but that choice and competition are returning to the markets for IT. M$ no longer gets a free ride anywhere. That was a dark cloud blocking the sun from all IT. Now an unwalled garden will get 18 hours a day of sunshine and air and water. There’s no telling how productive IT will become, but it surely will be an exciting development.

  37. oiaohm says:

    bw the problem is the forces are shifting.

    Leading position in Servers really. That is the problem everything is coming apart. Dominate interface device is ceasing to be Microsoft dependant.

  38. bw wrote, “They are the leader in servers because they are the leading client and they are the leading office product because of the server and client lead. “

    That’s begging the question. Who publishes unit sales numbers for servers? I’ve been in a lot of schools with a GNU/Linux server and nothing from M$. Schools love servers that just work without a lot of fuss. Businesses and other organizations do as well. Also there are no numbers for instances of M$’s office suite versus others. I’ve been in several schools where OpenOffice.org was there ahead of me. I would bet most consumers don’t use M$’s office suite except at work. Since there are more consumers than seats at work, that’s problematic for bw’s assumptions.

    M$’s revenues for the office suite are tiny compared to one copy per PC licensed. I doubt they have more than 25% of PCs covered. OpenOffice.org and LibreOffice are not that far behind if at all. Nine months ago, TDF was quoting 1 million downloads per month for that other OS. That’s ~3% of PCs and OpenOffice.org has a larger share due to longevity. So, M$ may have some kind of lead but I would bet it’s shrinking and not above 50% of PCs.

  39. bw says:

    Not in the client division, though

    It is an overall ecosystem, I believe. They are the leader in servers because they are the leading client and they are the leading office product because of the server and client lead. They can sell games and consoles because they had a well-recognized brand and were able to make a successful entry against Sony and Nintendo. It is all one big ball of wax and it is over $80 billion and is still growing.

  40. bw wrote, “Nothing ever seems to happen other than Microsoft posting generally better results each year.”

    Not in the client division, though, just the hand-holding and non-standard office-suite and servery stuff for that crippled OS.

  41. bw says:

    Time will tell the tale, I think. Meanwhile, you can base your hopes on percentages where a little goes a long way with Linux. Using these statistics for micro analysis and rejecting them for any macro conclusions is not something that you should be confident about, though.

    I have also heard this “beginning of the end” sort of predictions for Microsoft and the expected “year of Linux” for quite a while now. Nothing ever seems to happen other than Microsoft posting generally better results each year.

  42. bw wrote, “Users in the US, Europe, and everywhere around the world have not done that to any significant degree and have not yet, based on your detailed chart, come to any acceptance of Linux in India either.”

    US: Statcounter shows GNU/Linux up 150% in the last two months. US consumers are getting choice at last.

    EU: Governments are getting GNU/Linux in a big way. UK was recommending FLOSS by default but they’ve pulled back to a level playing field, whatever that is.

    “4. Government Policy
    Key points of the Policy are:-
    (1) The Government will actively and fairly consider open source solutions alongside proprietary ones in making procurement decisions.
    (2) Procurement decisions will be made on the basis on the best value for money solution to the business requirement, taking account of total lifetime cost of ownership of the solution, including exit and transition costs, after ensuring that solutions fulfil minimum and essential capability, security, scalability,transferability, support and manageability requirements.
    The Government will expect those putting forward IT solutions to develop where necessary a suitable mix of open source and proprietary products to ensure that the best possible overall solution can be considered.
    (4) Where there is no significant overall cost difference between open and non-open source products, open source will be selected on the basis of its additional inherent flexibility”

    The UK Government‘s interpretation of European procurement legislation would
    deem the mandating of open source as a breach of antitrust law. This rests on the current interpretation of whether open source is a product or a feature. European countries, such as Italy, interpret open source as a feature rather than a product.
    This means that preference for open source is simply preference for a legal feature of a product and, in stating this preference, no commercial vendor has been inappropriately favoured or disfavoured.

    All 24 government departments now use FLOSS web interfaces.
    The UK’s position is sitting on the fence, however, ignoring the obscene profits of companies like M$ and Oracle…“Furthermore, mandating open source would preclude the option of proprietary software from the procurement process. It is yet to be categorically proven that open source software provides better value for money when considering the total cost of ownership. Therefore, Cabinet Office takes the position that it will level the playing field for open source software, allowing departments to select the best value-for-money option.” I guess they haven’t talked with Munich or their own IT department… Germany has Munich setting a fine example. France has MIMO, “A working group at France’s main ministries is introducing certified office applications based on free and open source software. This working group, called MIMO (Mutualisation Interministérielle pour une Bureautique Ouverte, or Inter-ministry Mutualisation for an Open Productivity Suite) shows that large and complex public administration organisations can use and adapt open source for their business critical desktop applications.”, Peugeot and the French police leading the charge.

    China, Malaysia, Brazil and India are doing all kinds of things to promote FLOSS.

    So, no, the world has not rejected FLOSS. The world is accepting it to a greater degree every year. M$ did manage to hold back retail acceptance for a long time but that’s ending this year just about everywhere. It’s the end of the beginning.

  43. matchrocket says:

    bw, you’re a bigot. Your opinion doesn’t count for anything.

  44. bw says:

    The pomposity of these comments boggles my mind. There are billions of people on Earth who are not intent on migrating to USA

    And there are billions who would do so in an instant if offered the opportunity. That is beside the point, however, which is that the developed world does not follow the lead of India.

    Further, I think that you are horribly naïve in thinking that they would be happy with having to adopt Linux as an economy measure. Users in the US, Europe, and everywhere around the world have not done that to any significant degree and have not yet, based on your detailed chart, come to any acceptance of Linux in India either. 500 years from now, at the current rate, half of them will be choosing Linux, but not any more than that.

  45. bw wrote, ““Came from India” is a key part of the puzzle, too. The USA is the trendsetter and the brilliant Indian or Chinese or Russian or other engineer or scientist from these places tries diligently to gain entry to the US and its freedoms and conveniences.”

    Uh… The pomposity of these comments boggles my mind. There are billions of people on Earth who are not intent on migrating to USA. Many of them are brilliant contributors to their own economies. I personally knew many who fled the insanity of the USA for the relative freedom of Canada: teachers, engineers, doctors, students, … My little woman could have chosen to migrate to USA but she chose Canada instead.

    USA used to be a trendsetter in IT but they have declined in importance seriously. In personal computer shipments/sales, IDC reports, “U.S. is now in its tenth consecutive quarter of year-on-year contraction “. What trend is that? If USA won’t buy the product why should the rest of the world? China bought more desktop/notebook PCs than USA. India does buy fewer PCs than USA by a large margin but their market is growing while USA is shrinking. They could easily overtake USA in a couple of years. The USA used to buy half the world’s PCs but now are at about 19%. They used to make most of them as well. Who’s the trendsetter now? China.

  46. dougman says:

    Maou, 10% of people will find a way to hate you – don’t take it personally and don’t worry, I do not take it personally in anyway. 🙂

    Using the Air Force Blog Assessment tool that the US Air Force uses to determine how they will respond to negative blog posts, I ignore junk criticism, such as yours, as that is what it is, JUNK.

    http://www.globalnerdy.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/air_force_web_posting_response_assessment-v2-1_5_09.pdf

    What is ever funnier, is the trolls that do come here, do so anonymously and hide behind the keyboard.

  47. bw says:

    many competent engineers and software developers, employed by M$ come from India

    Certainly they do. And not just Microsoft. I work with a bunch of them daily. One of those lives down the street from me. They are generally very good at what they do and about half have degrees from US universities. How about you?

    “Came from India” is a key part of the puzzle, too. The USA is the trendsetter and the brilliant Indian or Chinese or Russian or other engineer or scientist from these places tries diligently to gain entry to the US and its freedoms and conveniences. I’ve never met one that wants to go back. Even Torvalds, for all his opportunity, seems to prefer the US. Maybe you could move to Puna or some other tech center over there and give up your space to another of them.

  48. Maou Sadao, attacking the messengers, wrote, “Dougman champions himself as a friend of India when in reality he doesn’t give a crap. Like Pogson he pretends to because he wants to see India pave the way for Linux.”

    I am a human being. I don’t have any personal contact with India although I have met a few Indians while I worked in Saudi Arabia and lived in Canada. I do know that Indian students contributed to the OpenMosix project years ago. I doubt those and many others have stood still waiting for M$ to give their lives meaning. India will leave M$ behind with or without wishes by me. India is not alone in that. Brazil, Russia, China, Germany, Malaysia and others are leading the way.

  49. Maou Sadao says:

    LOLWUT?! Dougman champions himself as a friend of India when in reality he doesn’t give a crap. Like Pogson he pretends to because he wants to see India pave the way for Linux. In 20 years Microsoft will hardly be a shadow, they’ll most likely have another record revenue to report. But funny characters like Pogson will be gone. And dougman’s Jet Computing will be nothing more than a faded away shard in the collective memory of the Internet.

  50. dougman says:

    What BW fails to realize is America is falling behind the rest of the world.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/100821311

    In 20 years, M$ will be but a shadow. It’s funny one such as BW, talks down India but fails to realize that many competent engineers and software developers, employed by M$ come from India.

  51. matchrocket says:

    “quit trying to just demonize me’

    You’re a troll bw, that’s a type of demon. And you come here to defend Microsoft. Basically you are saying Microsoft will gladly take India’s money but thinks of them as backward and not smart enough to create anything on par with the Western World. The KKK would like to hear from you bw. I’m sure they could always use a new member.

    Do you also believe only men should have the right to vote…? Not only do you insult an entire nation, you seem to be proud of it. So I guess you wouldn’t mind if India gave Microsoft the Heave Ho.

    I’m not trying to demonize you bw, you’re doing a fine job of that all by yourself.

  52. bw says:

    That’s what the Microsoft people think of you, poor pitiless people

    Pitiful, matchrocket, not pitiless. Take a little pride in your work and try to do a better job!

    While you are at it, quit trying to just demonize me as being snotty and put some thought into trying to refute the claim that India is not a trendsetter and will simply end up following the rest of the world when they are able to afford it.

    Pogson at least makes an effort to create a case, saying, for example, that Indians could pioneer the adaptation of a “$50 phone” to personal computing due to an inability to easily afford a “$500 PC”. Pogson, though, seems to ignore the cost of a $100 per month data plan to use that phone and the 2 year or so contract to get the phone for $50 instead of $600 or so if you just buy one without a contract.

  53. bw says:

    That assumes the curve is indeed linear

    It was your curve, not mine. I am not suggesting anything in either direction, simply noting that what you supplied has an implication that I am sure you do not like.

  54. matchrocket says:

    bw the Microsoft spokesman wrote: “What they do because they cannot afford to do more popular things is not copied in the developed world, rather they are pitied.”

    Do you hear that India? That’s what the Microsoft people think of you, poor pitiless people. Hardly worth the trouble. Followers, not leaders. Take a good look. It’s not pretty, but that’s what you are to them. Microsoft will take your money and then shit on you. You shouldn’t take it personally though, they do that to everyone.

  55. bw wrote, “My math was off, too. I don’t know what got into me. It will take 500 years at that pace to get to 50% for Linux, not 100 as I originally said.”

    That assumes the curve is indeed linear. It’s not. After the first few million users, positive feedback will accelerate it. Further, a lot of old PCs with XP will die or be replaced sooner or later. That’s a huge void into which GNU/Linux can move.

  56. bw wrote of India, “What Dilberts like dougman do not understand is that India is not a trendsetter. What they do because they cannot afford to do more popular things is not copied in the developed world, rather they are pitied.”

    India is its own market. It is not that big now but it has huge room to grow. All the OEMs and software developers will be glad to follow whatever works in India. That will set a trend. At the moment servers are hot in India, PCs are doing better than many other places and small cheap computers are flying.

  57. bw says:

    What the foolish trolls here do not understand is that India represents 1/7th of the worlds population.

    What Dilberts like dougman do not understand is that India is not a trendsetter. What they do because they cannot afford to do more popular things is not copied in the developed world, rather they are pitied.

  58. bw says:

    M$’s share is in decling

    Possibly yes, and you have shown that to be about 0.1% per year with your wonderful graph. My math was off, too. I don’t know what got into me. It will take 500 years at that pace to get to 50% for Linux, not 100 as I originally said.

    The government of India may send M$ to Hell by banning them outright next year.

    Or they may partner up and throw out the Communists that are pushing Linux. Who can say? Are the Indian ministers susceptible to the lure of riches and fine things? I think you can count on Microsoft continuing to be fairly adept at making a buck off the PC OS business and that amateurs who do not have the experience are going to continually lose out.

    There is a big question as to the value of the phone OS market. If Google is actually going to gain from their expenditures for Android, it is going to be from taking commissions on apps from their app store. That is a frail reed.

    Microsoft makes a ton of money from PC OS because people actually buy it and all that Microsoft receives is the price for it. There is no 3 rail bank shot needed to sell apps. You have said that they are in it to sell clicks, but it seems to me that Google is going to get their click money regardless of who sold the OS for the phone or tablet or PC.

    Gillette thought they could give away the razors and sell blades and Google is sort of doing that. Microsoft is just selling the razors and letting other companies sell blades. So far it has worked.

  59. Maou Sadao says:

    “Too many Indians live in poverty and probably do not own IT … .”

    That’d be such a nice statement. If only your intentions were pure. But giving small cheap computers to Indians is in your mind first and foremost a means to destroy Microsoft. You don’t exactly care if some Indians die of poverty today or tomorrow. If anything, they’re martyrs for the cause!

  60. Too many Indians live in poverty and probably do not own IT but they are a huge potential market for the small cheap computers. Certainly more of them can afford a $50 smartphone rather than a $500 legacy PC. I think Google’s idea to use balloons to spread wireless connectivity at lowest cost could be a blessing to India if it becomes global. The cost of small cheap computers is less than the cost of connectivity now. If the connectivity was very cheap, many millions of Indians would jump the Digital Divide.

  61. dougman says:

    What the foolish trolls here do not understand is that India represents 1/7th of the worlds population.

    AND, most importantly, M$ IS in decline:

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/haydnshaughnessy/2013/04/15/so-if-the-pc-is-dying-whats-next/

  62. bw wrote, “it remains that some other product offering, which may continue to be unnamed, will have an even larger huge number for the next 100 years.”

    Nope. M$’s share is in decline. In a huge and growing market that’s a recipe for large rapid decrease sooner or later, say, when the installed base of PCs is retired. Who knows? The government of India may send M$ to Hell by banning them outright next year. M$ is not a good corporate citizen anywhere. Such a move would boost India’s economy and save a ton of money.

  63. bw says:

    For greater clarity, a linear relation for growth of share of GNU/Linux PCs on top of an exponential growth of PCs is an exponential growth of GNU/Linux PCs. n = a + bN = a + bN0k

    But it is still a linear growth in the percentage and, however huge of a number that might be, it remains that some other product offering, which may continue to be unnamed, will have an even larger huge number for the next 100 years. If the trend continues, of course. I can only see that as very good news for Microsoft.

  64. bw, being mathematically challenged, wrote, “Linux has gained 0.5% share in only 5 years. “

    You can imagine that moving from 0.9% to 1.4% share in five years is a gain of 0.5% but in terms of units that is huge. The number of PCs in India is exploding. Sales have doubled in the last 7 years. They import a lot. They build a lot, millions per annum. So, 0.9% of a smaller number of extant PCs to 1.4% of a much larger number of PCs is a huge number of PCs shipped/delivered. Don’t forget Myhrvold’s “networking” effect, positive feedback resulting from the increased presence increases the rate of growth.

    For greater clarity, a linear relation for growth of share of GNU/Linux PCs on top of an exponential growth of PCs is an exponential growth of GNU/Linux PCs. n = a + bN = a + bN0kt
    As such, the share of GNU/Linux PCs in the installed base will be huge much sooner than 100 years. XP is huge in India. Chuckle. There may be quite a bump in GNU/Linux share just this year as they migrate to something more familiar than “7” or “8”… GNU/Linux can run those machines better.

  65. Maou Sadao wrote, “The only thing I take away from this LOL article: Mr. Pogson knows what a linear function is and tries to impress his audience with his amazing math skills.”

    There’s nothing amazing about Grade 9 Maths. What is amazing is that M$ replies to factual information by attacking the messenger.

  66. Maou Sadao says:

    The only thing I take away from this LOL article: Mr. Pogson knows what a linear function is and tries to impress his audience with his amazing math skills.

  67. bw says:

    Looks promising! Linux has gained 0.5% share in only 5 years. If they can keep it up, they will have over half the market in just 100 years from now. I can see Ballmer getting red in the face and kicking his cat.

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