Countdown to Freedom

With the demise of XP imminent (M$ needs it to die) what are all the hundreds of millions of users going to do? Some will try to run without support but in my experience that means they will be eaten alive by malware within months. That’s OK for polite malware but there’s only so many resources available. That leaves a few choices:

  • “7”, at great expense for new licences/hardware,
  • “8”, at great expense for new licences/hardware, or
  • GNU/Linux, for $0 on same hardware or just a bit for better noOS or pre-installed hardware or switching to thin clients.

“With less than 400 days to go, 15 per cent of those running Windows XP are still unaware that that’s the date Microsoft finally turns off all support for its legacy PC operating system, according to a recent survey.”via 1 in 7 WinXP-using biz bods DON'T KNOW Microsoft is pulling the plug

So, what will happen? I figure a lot of users will want to use their present systems instead of replacing them and they will want a GUI that is similar to XP. That means GNU/Linux with XFCE or some such desktop environment.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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50 Responses to Countdown to Freedom

  1. bw wrote, “I thought the issue here was the future viability of Linux in its classic, for example Debian, guise which I do not believe will ever become commonplace.”

    Debian GNU/Linux is already commonplace. It is run on a ton of web-servers, and in schools and government offices. Ubuntu GNU/Linux is based on it and ships on 5% of legacy PCs today. If uniformly distributed it would be on every block of every city/town. Every major OEMs and a lot of minor ones ship GNU/Linux. Distrowatch.com gets tens of thousands of hits per day. Fedora counts tens of millions of installations and Ubuntu GNU/Linux is much bigger than that.

  2. oiaohm says:

    bw history of Linux http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1b/Linux_Distribution_Timeline.svg

    What is Debian? You are referring to. The distribution or its tree.

    You can fairly much bet on something in the debian tree becoming common.

    Debian distribution who knows. Not like its completely out there thinking Nokia did release a phone running Maemo that was basically a debian branch.
    http://linux.slashdot.org/story/09/08/21/1155217/nokia-leaks-phone-with-full-gnulinux-distribution

    So it happened before no reason why it cannot happen again.

    Of course in time X11 will be gone. Then for phones it will be KDE vs Gnome vs mir(Unity(ubuntu)) vs tizen vs swordfish vs firefox os vs android vs chrome os. Welcome to the cat fight.

    bw
    –What I want does not matter with Android.–
    True to a point. Until you wake up Samsung HTC…. Android products are all slightly different and not stock Android. You do get to vote with your feet on future Android features.

    Microsoft does not allow OEM to alter the interface as much as Google does with Android.

    bw the most extreme alteration is like what you can do to htc devices. Unlock the boot loader and insert you own firmware.

  3. bw says:

    Android is what it is based on what Google, perhaps in collusion with a number of big OEMs, says it is. What you want does not matter with Android. What I want does not matter with Android. Just like we do not matter with Windows.

    It may be possible to alter Android in some way oneself in order to facilitate some gimmick or another, but that is an infinitesimal number of incidents and has no effect on the business overall.

    I thought the issue here was the future viability of Linux in its classic, for example Debian, guise which I do not believe will ever become commonplace.

  4. oiaohm says:

    bw You know how Gnome 3 caused massive revolt on Linux.

    That is right it was targeted at tablets did not make a nice desktop.

    KDE also did a tablet move. Issue is how. They have kept compatible with existing libraries.

    Linux has been preping for the change to tablets and phones. Android is significant that provides more 100 percent Linux compatible hardware.

    It comes down to what You call Linux.

    bw process of becoming mainstream will be interesting to say the least.

    Android patch distribution system suxs.

  5. bw says:

    Sure you can buy one on-line, that is not in dispute. You do have to scour through a lot of Windows offers, though. That still does not make Linux computers a very significant part of the mainstream.

  6. bw wrote, “while you can point to a variety of Linux models allegedly being sold in downtown Timbuktu and similar cities, it is not very commonplace elsewhere.”

    Is there any country where it is impossible to find a GNU/Linux retailer? I doubt it. There are plenty on the web and we see retail establishments in every corner. They are just not well distributed. e.g. in Canada there are a bunch but none nearby.

    Here’s a page from an on-line shop in Philippines. Notice “Linux” is a choice of OS. Notice that they show notebooks form Lenovo, Acer, HP, and ASUS with GNU/Linux.

    Here’s another with actual bricks-and-mortar locations. They list multiple hits when searched for “linux notebooks”.

    Here’s another.

    So, “allegedly being sold” is alleged but not true.

  7. bw says:

    “I go by the numbers”

    In a rather selective sense of the term, I think, but most of what you are saying is just wishful thinking. As you yourself point out, Windows is still the only choice at your local emporium and, while you can point to a variety of Linux models allegedly being sold in downtown Timbuktu and similar cities, it is not very commonplace elsewhere.

    As you note here, Microsoft seems to be able to maintain and even improve their financial position as well. You attribute that to some nefarious actions, but you have no real proof of that and, even if it were true, you have always described any of their success to such behavior, so what has changed? Whatever worked in times gone by seems to be continuing to function.

  8. bw wrote, “Microsoft isn’t “stalled” at all in my opinion.”

    You are entitled to your opinion but it is wrong. MSFT had a yearly low share price soon after “8” was released. Sales of Wintel PCs are way down. I go by the numbers. M$ can maintain income for a while by raising prices and bullying OEMs but that’s not sustainable any longer because competing operating systems are widely seen as viable. The PC is no longer a Wintel PC.

  9. bw says:

    Microsoft isn’t “stalled” at all in my opinion.

    It is rather pathetic for you to yearn for bad news for Microsoft in order to cheer up your day. Don’t you have anything better to wish for?

  10. oiaohm says:

    bw Microsoft stall in fact lines up with increase smart device sales.

  11. oiaohm says:

    bw samsung and others also have grown in the recession and they are linked to retail.

  12. bw says:

    “FOSS is not effected”

    It is rather cavalier to class IBM and Oracle, epitomes of proprietary products, as “FOSS” companies, I think, but go ahead if your ego needs some support. Also, I think that growth for Microsoft is in-between that of IBM and Oracle over the recessionary years, but you can pick your own start and stop dates.

    It is significant, also, to note that Microsoft is much more tied to retail sales since the bulk of their wares is distributed along with hardware devices in general whereas Oracle and IBM products are sold to business concerns directly.

    The retail businesses have been the ones affected by the recession and big business, the buyers of Oracle and IBM stuff, has been recovering almost continually over this period and stock prices are now at all time highs.

    This has nothing at all to do with FOSS or non-FOSS nature of products.

  13. oiaohm says:

    bw –Tell that to the many companies that have not grown at all in the past 4 years and who have gone bankrupt in the world wide recession that we are still in.–
    Yet Redhat, IBM, Oracle ….. Were not effected by the recession at all.

    There is a problem here. FOSS is not effected. Strange right world wide recession does not effect all companies.

  14. bw says:

    “Reality Microsoft sales have not grown that much in the last 4 years”

    Tell that to the many companies that have not grown at all in the past 4 years and who have gone bankrupt in the world wide recession that we are still in. You are playing for matchsticks in a $5 minimum bet world and dismissing the Windows OS business as on the decline just makes you look like a fanatic.

    Also, Samsung’s revenues related to Android are significant, but they are minor compared to their revenues relative to non-Android things like TVs, semiconductors, and other components and devices. Microsoft makes their money mostly from Windows OS and related software products, ignoring for the moment the few billion they make from non-Windows stuff like Xbox.

    There is nothing wrong with using Android (for free) and making some bucks in the phone and tablet business. Samsung is pretty much the only success story in that battle, but they are doing very well. Phones and tablets are hardware, though, and that is a far cry from OS software for PCs.

    Bill Gates himself probably buys Samsung products, like maybe a 500 inch LED/LCD HDTV if they make one that big. He probably appreciates a winner unlike yourself.

  15. oiaohm says:

    bw in dollars spent last year. More was spend on smart phones than PC and there was more profit to be made.

    Robust business little hard thinking its down 15 percent+. Reality Microsoft sales have not grown that much in the last 4 years.

    Sumsung is making more money selling Android stuff than there PC business.

    http://techcrunch.com/2013/01/24/samsungs-big-q4-2012-52-4-billion-in-revenue-is-nice-but-operating-profit-surged-89-year-over-year-to-8-27-billion

    bw Microsoft seams big. Hardware companies like samsung are big.

    Samsung makes money if a PC sells or if something embedded sells as long as it contains there hardware.

    This is the problem the big hardware companies are finding they can move product without Microsoft.

    Result they are investing more money in the Linux kernel and less money making drivers for Microsoft OS.

    bw the bad new is samsung has cancelled production of all future Windows RT devices. Same with most of the other hardware makers.

    So Windows is fairly much restricted to expensive x86 chips.

    bw http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-14/samsung-will-release-tizen-based-smartphone-this-year.html

    tizen is another Linux based OS. An OS that samsung and intel have funded the development of.

    So you are saying who is going to push the re-education. You are looking at the very companies Microsoft depends on for there existence.

    The question is how fast will the re-education go not where the money is coming from.

  16. bw says:

    “That’s clearly a faulty assumption considering that more smart thingies were bought last year than Wintel PCs”

    But what are those things worth overall compared to the value of the PC business? More significantly, what is the value of the OS involved with your “thingies” vs the value collected from PC OEMs? When it comes to business, the emergence of the smart phone and tablet devices has certainly put a constraint on growth of PCs, particularly low end PCs like netbooks. Even so, the OS used for PCs remains as a robust business with well established customer expectations which can only be met efficiently by supplying Windows itself.

    Given enough time and money directed at re-educating the buying public, I agree with your notion that Linux is a viable replacement for Windows, but I do not see anyone taking that time or spending that much money to do so. The only people who have enough time and money to do it are currently making billions in profits from selling Windows and it is not likely that they would ever be motivated to change that condition.

  17. bw wrote, “What you are always ignoring is the mechanism by which Windows continues to be the expected OS on what we call PCs”

    That’s clearly a faulty assumption considering that more smart thingies were bought last year than Wintel PCs. I was using my smartphone today for some tasks. It sucks for creating stuff by typing but I can click on things and read content like the wind. These things are personal computers for consumers of text, images, video and they do everything any PC will do except write text well. With all the illiterates on the planet, that isn’t much of a barrier to entry. Then there are many other factors like size and price.

    BTW, I created a “view” of a MySQL database today using a smartphone. It can be done but it is a pain dancing around forms when you have to zoom to see stuff and make clicks. Once created I can use the view very readily on the same smartphone or my old PC. I know people who don’t even have regular Internet access at home or a legacy PC. They don’t need them for what they do and that’s a lot. The world is not limiting “PC” to Wintel.

  18. oiaohm says:

    bw
    –The most common thought held here is that the new breed of devices, smart phones and tablets, are a success for Linux if/when they overcome the lead of the Apple pace-setting devices here.–

    Almost all markets Android is outselling Apple made devices. The new green field markets are fairly much Android excuslive. So this is no longer a If. It is a when. To exceed already sold items of Apple devices is somewhere between 2014 and 2018 if sales rates stay about the same.

    bw the reality here Apple is no longer setting the sales pace. We are seeing dos vs apple all over again. Multi vendors under cutting a solo vendor. Resulting in the solo vendors failure.

    –What you are always ignoring is the mechanism by which Windows continues to be the expected OS on what we call PCs and any analysis of how that mechanism might be defeated by a contender such as Linux or if it is a hopeless task.–

    Most of us are not ignoring it.

    Most of it comes down to one word. Compatibility.

    Chromebooks are doing quite well because people know what they are compatible with.

    There are three clear paths to take out the PC.

    1) Phones are getting massively powerful we will be seeing 8 core 64 bit phones this year with upto 16G ram. General word processing and Internet surfing this is overkill. Path one is docking phones. With security issues in places in Asia some areas of africa where you cannot leave laptops in rooms and expect to come back and find it malware free.

    A phone where your computer can remain in your pocket will be popular in places with major security issues.

    2) Networks changing to open standards. So a Linux machine can be in a network without being the trouble maker. This allows roles like POS and other items to be issued to Linux.

    3) Finally vendors trying to find something different to sell. If you have not noticed vendors are already discounting Windows 8 machines trying to move the stock pile. Vendors at some point have to see they are been left with old stock of Windows items over and over again. Linux stock is a little bit simpler to handle.

    A Linux PC tower goes out as server and desktop from the one install image. So you don’t need two stocks of that product line.

    Dell for instance this year has release into more markets Linux machines that are not special orders.

    bw dell is not the only vendor showing more interest in Linux product lines for desktop.

  19. bw says:

    “That that other OS is widely used is not a figure of merit but monopoly.”

    It is the reality regardless of what label you want to put on it. You call it “monopoly”, others call it “success”. No one calls it false, though.

    What you are always ignoring is the mechanism by which Windows continues to be the expected OS on what we call PCs and any analysis of how that mechanism might be defeated by a contender such as Linux or if it is a hopeless task. The most common thought held here is that the new breed of devices, smart phones and tablets, are a success for Linux if/when they overcome the lead of the Apple pace-setting devices here.

  20. oiaohm says:

    By the way here in Australia for our local Consumer protection laws plan english is also go to the office of fair trading site. Just the Australian Office of fair trading not the UK.

  21. oiaohm says:

    A lemon car can get a full refund even if it out of warranty because you can prove it was never fit for purpose.

    The 4 week reject is a different matter.

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1979/54

    Search this for “Fit for purpose”. 14 (3)or 14(2) comes to mind depend on the year.

    Dr Loser basically you are providing a website by some no body group is writing a crappy point of view that is absolutely nothing but drivel.

    The act never defines Fit for purpose exactly.

    “14 Implied terms about quality or fitness”
    Define how to work out if something fails the fit for purpose test.

    The perfered and only site to goto for plan english is. http://www.oft.gov.uk/business-advice/treating-customers-fairly/sogahome/sogaexplained/ That is currently off line for maintenance.

    You were titling you link exactly what it was Dr Loser. Nonsense and Drivel.

  22. oiaohm says:

    Dr Loser so you titled you link exactly what it is. Nice of you .

  23. Dr Loser says:

    @oiaohm:

    Drivel.

  24. oiaohm says:

    Dr Loser you just point to Nonsense.

    Key words “Develops a fault” so it was not a fault you bought it with. Yes MS gets around some of these things by call particular faults Features. You bought it with X feature its your problem.

    Be as described MS Windows is. Very lacking on detail.

    Section 26 of the MS Windows 7 EULA restricts damages.

    You cannot make not fit for purpose claim if you cannot prove that the item was built for that purpose. Its like buying a bit of steel and using it like a crowbar and when it deforms trying to get a replacement.

    Microsoft does not state that Windows is a high reliability OS. So a fact that it crashes from time to time is the product you got.

    It a different matter when you buy a lemon car there are a list of things a car should do perfectly to perform its purpose. Prove that the car cannot do one of those and the item sold was not fit for purpose.

    Undefined purpose is Undefined purpose and any item with Undefined purpose is down right hard to return for being defective because it not performing to purpose. This is true in all countries.

    MS Windows define of purpose is insanely vague.

  25. Dr Loser says:

    @oiaohm:

    Nonsense.

  26. oiaohm says:

    Ted go read it your self “Fit for purpose” I can sell anything as long as I don’t place claims what it fit for or define its purpose under UK’s Sale Of Goods Act 1979.

    So for Microsoft the fit for purpose claim means nothing. Microsoft does not place any purpose claims on Windows or a lot of other products. They just list features.

    True trickery. Software companies have been very good about not stating the purpose of there products.

  27. Ted says:

    “Fit for purpose” is by no means meaningless in the “real world”. It has a distinct legal meaning in most countries.

    Try looking up the UK’s Sale Of Goods Act 1979, or any laws governing building construction, or most US laws involving any form of sale.

  28. kozmcrae says:

    bw wrote:

    “They are paying for the perceived convenience and expected robustness and fitness for purpose of Windows as demonstrated over 20 years of extensive use.”

    I’ve got some bad news for you bw. “Fit for purpose” or “fitness for purpose” as you put it is a BS marketing term and means nothing in the real world. Better luck next time.

  29. oiaohm says:

    bw I have had cases of having to pull old records and use old software to get at them. I had to access some old ms works 5.0 docs a while back for an accountant. Old crap turns up. Some of this old crap works with more modern some does not.

    Windows 2000 and before this is not really a problem. Find the installation discs and it works. All Linux distributions it works.

    –They are paying for the perceived convenience and expected robustness and fitness for purpose of Windows as demonstrated over 20 years of extensive use.–
    And for most 20 years of extensive usage Windows has not had on-line activation. Windows 2000 and before don’t have on-line activation. ie type in product key and go.

    Problem if the activation issue is badly handled in XP is fairly much a minor warning. Getting hands on volume license keys is not impossible with XP. Volume license keys disable activation checking with XP. So XP we can still work around.

    The true trouble starts with 2003 server (14/07/2015 or 2016) followed by Vista(April 11, 2017 or 2018). Ok if its plus I year until they turn off activation servers or not.

    That gives me 1 years from the end of XP life that tells me how strict the 2003 brick wall is. KMS servers have to activate. MAK keys have to activate and OEM keys have to activate with 2003 on. No install keys that disable activation.

    Basically XP end of life gives me a interesting answer and some minor annoyances. 2003 end of life threaten to be a true pain in but.

    XP is interesting 2003 is worrying.

    –Linux isn’t a cornerstone of commerce, so it would be next to impossible to even hypothesize how a problem would be created here.–
    Go to a few saw mills and check out the tracking software of sales and wood they are using. You will find its Linux for most of them bw.

    Most stock-exchanges are Linux. Most ERP systems sit on Linux bw. Yes they track everything inside large businesses.

    Sorry bw Linux is the cornerstone to a lot of the worlds commerce. Most of the worlds commerce data sits on servers not desktop machines.

  30. bw wrote, “Linux isn’t a cornerstone of commerce, so it would be next to impossible to even hypothesize how a problem would be created here. The answer of “work around it” is rather dismissive as well. People don’t use Windows because they are interested in doing anything themselves. They are paying for the perceived convenience and expected robustness and fitness for purpose of Windows as demonstrated over 20 years of extensive use.”

    Tell another tall story. GNU/Linux has been a cornerstone of commerce since the middle 1990s. All doubt about that was laid to rest when IBM got aboard. Lately governments are discovering GNU/Linux and they are the biggest businesses of all. Education began to catch GNU/Linux about the time of LTSP. It just makes a lot of sense.

    That that other OS is widely used is not a figure of merit but monopoly. The world is casting off monopoly very rapidly today. Wintel’s captive market is escaping. They will have to work for a living from now on. More than half of the world’s RAM production is now not going for Wintel PCs. It’s going for small cheap mobile computers often running */Linux. Thanks to Moore’s Law, these small cheap computers can do the job and Wintel need not apply.

  31. bw says:

    “Linux we know it not a major problem. If end of life comes you can work around it as much as required with Linux.”

    Linux isn’t a cornerstone of commerce, so it would be next to impossible to even hypothesize how a problem would be created here. The answer of “work around it” is rather dismissive as well. People don’t use Windows because they are interested in doing anything themselves. They are paying for the perceived convenience and expected robustness and fitness for purpose of Windows as demonstrated over 20 years of extensive use.

    Snicker to yourselves about how we are all sheep and babes in the woods and only you intelligentsia are on solid ground, but you are just deluding yourselves. Windows problems, if they really exist, will get Windows solutions from Windows suppliers. All others need not apply.

    Instead of these horribly hypothetical cases, such as “Could be tax audit and 7 year old records for some reason don’t open in new version of program and old version of program don’t run on the newer windows”, that you invent out of thin air, find a real case.

  32. oiaohm says:

    Der Balrog
    –But if you don’t take steps to remedy this situation then you are to blame.–
    Remedy the solution takes time. Sometimes you don’t have. Remedy don’t appear by magic.

    Thing is knowing how MS will handle XP end of life tells us how much trouble we are in when we hit one of these problems.

    Linux we know it not a major problem. If end of life comes you can work around it as much as required with Linux.

    Der Balrog not all cases you will find out exactly nicely either. Could be tax audit and 7 year old records for some reason don’t open in new version of program and old version of program don’t run on the newer windows.

    Some can be software no longer used in current day production and you need to access the records for legal or tax reasons.

    Basically there are head aches that happen that cause you to install and use old software to get results in a timely fashion.

  33. Der Balrog says:

    You got this wrong. I don’t think its a good excuse. You just don’t want to accept the reality that at times a company is stuck.

    Being stuck with some software that (hypothetically) only runs in this or that environment? I don’t deny that it can happen. But if you don’t take steps to remedy this situation then you are to blame. Or rather, you will be blamed by others.

    To return to the freight companies I mentioned: their main software is some old clunker written in AcuCobol, initially ported from DOS. For being an old clunker it runs flawlessly on Windows NT, 2000, XP, Vista, 7, 8, and even Wine. In this case there’s no excuse for not migrating to a supported OS.

    It may well be that there is indeed software which doesn’t run on newer versions of Windows. But those cases are in my experience exceptionally rare, especially when the software we’re talking about is sector-specific legacy software.

  34. oiaohm says:

    Der Balrog there is some point to blame the end user when they get infected because of running old software.

    Insecure software should be run in a isolated way.

    –Apparently you think that doing nothing for many, many years is a good excuse.–
    You got this wrong. I don’t think its a good excuse. You just don’t want to accept the reality that at times a company is stuck.
    Lets 2 weeks after end of life of XP activation you did not transfer some old but key records out of a bit of software that does not work under vista, 7 or 8.

    There are reasons to access a very old POS. To check that a person who comes in who claims to acquired X did. The catch with the dos POS in active usage is it contains a feature none of the modern ones do. The ability to look at order and work out if the mix will make explosive or highly toxic chemicals.

    –if there’s a trial then the court will investigate if and to what extent external circumstances/influences were responsible for the acts done by the person(s) accused. But that notwithstanding the person(s) accused is/are in the end the one(s) standing trial.–
    Ok Der Balrog in a court of law you remove that POS and someone orders a mix that is explosive or produce other toxic chemicals and you send it and they die and it comes out you had the software to prevent it. Do you want to be the one sitting in court over this Der Balrog.

    Now how far is your arguement Der Balrog that is end of life no longer supported going to go. Protecting human life defeats software end of life. I know that is bad Der Balrog but that is the way it is. This is why your no one should be running after 2015 is wrong. No one should be willing running it without a very special reason after 2015.

  35. Der Balrog says:

    You left out the part that they were connected to a Linux server facing the Internet Trollrog. We are wise to your lies and tricks. One of them is to use Linux against itself. If we were to look into this that is what we would find.

    Your pitiful rant makes absolutely no sense. You want to claim it had no malware because the internet “runs” on Linux?

    And no, there was in all cases no hardware “firewall” protecting the computers, unless a DSL router counts as such — and the last time I checked malware infections aren’t prevented by such devices (even if they run Linux, chuckle).

  36. Der Balrog says:

    @oiaohm:

    See doing what you accuse Linux people doing with bugs. Blame the end user.

    Well, at some point you have to blame the end user. Despite your wanting to prove otherwise by pulling specifically engineered exceptional situations out of thin air.

    Let me provide an analogy: if there’s a trial then the court will investigate if and to what extent external circumstances/influences were responsible for the acts done by the person(s) accused. But that notwithstanding the person(s) accused is/are in the end the one(s) standing trial.

    Apparently you think that doing nothing for many, many years is a good excuse.

  37. Der Balrog wrote, “Activation servers will remain online until 2015. And even after that XP will still run unless you decide to tinker enough with your hardware to “deactivate” XP.”

    HAHAHA! I had forgotten about M$’s Genuine disAdvantage! Change your mouse, kill XP. Great. I had that happen in one school’s lab. The thing would freeze, then kids thought “The mouse froze”, swap the mouse and XP would not boot… Chuckle. Designed to fail.

  38. kozmcrae wrote, “You left out the part that they were connected to a Linux server facing the Internet Trollrog.”

    Good point. M$’s software is its own malware. Where I last worked, I found a machine off the LAN, so it had never been updated. It was running XP SP1 on FAT. Idling, it had half the number of processes running that our stock XP SP3 installations carried. Eventually we converted it to GNU/Linux on which it thrived with a modern OS.

  39. kozmcrae says:

    The Trollrog wrote:

    “But it is deeply ironic to find Windows PCs in the wild that are connected to the internet, are running an long unsupported OS, are unprotected in about every respect, and yet there’s no malware to be found on them.”

    You left out the part that they were connected to a Linux server facing the Internet Trollrog. We are wise to your lies and tricks. One of them is to use Linux against itself. If we were to look into this that is what we would find.

  40. oiaohm says:

    Der Balrog
    –Potential activation problems or not — that’s actually besides the point. If you have failed to migrate to something else by 2015 then it’s completely your fault, especially if you’re a company.–
    See doing what you accuse Linux people doing with bugs. Blame the end user. If it some key application they don’t have the source code to or control over the update cycle. They might not be able to migrate fully. Installing in virtual machine could have been a valid solution until better software can be found.

    Der Balrog
    –If its EOL nears you will have to do something, too.–
    True have todo something. But the do something if I am stuck with an application or two that will not work. At redhat end of life you don’t need the the password to the update server any more. The product still will install in a virtual machine and work if I need it. Or install in other virtualisation solutions.

    Linux operational usage can extend past EOL as needed. Does not mean you want to but you are not stuffed at EOL comes up and you have some application that will not work on new version.

    Sorry bringing Linux into the this proves you are not thinking about the problem. I know of a few business still on dos because there pos runs on dos. To be correct MS dos 6.22. Application does not work on Freedos or anything newer in Windows. Of course the real hardware left a long time ago.

    EOL of hardware and EOL of software are two split thing. Then there is End of Operational Life. XP end of operational life might be something insane like the year 3000 when everyone truly stops using it. End of life by OS maker is only one figure.

    Der Balrog please be aware for a commercial company not to be risk stuffed by an OS going EOL and not being re-installable. They cannot use closed source software end of story. Closed source vendors disappear all the time or end product with no forwards conversion.

    So I don’t hear you calling for companies to use FOSS Der Balrog. You are stuffed attempting to blame the user. Stalman can blame the user for choosing closed source applications that they could not update.

    This is why this is so funny Der Balrog you are fighting another arguement you are going to lose.

    There is way you can explain to me how an company is going to migrate if some of the applications they have are closed source and don’t work on newer versions of windows and the company that made them has decided not to make newer versions and there is no current market replacement.

    So fairly much screwed until they can get new software created. 12 months is not enough time. In fact they could be in this location because the vendor has been promising new version, new version and now when XP end of life they decide to say ok we are shutting up shop.

  41. Der Balrog says:

    Potential activation problems or not — that’s actually besides the point. If you have failed to migrate to something else by 2015 then it’s completely your fault, especially if you’re a company.

    It’s actually totally irrelevant if we’re talking about Windows or not. Suppose you’re using a longterm-supported version of a Linux distribution. If its EOL nears you will have to do something, too.

    Also, computer hardware is reasonably (at least in Germany) written off within three years. Let’s be conservative and say: five years. So you replace computers after five years, and then a “migration” will be forced on you either way.

  42. oiaohm says:

    Der Balrog Please note tinker with hardware is not the only way to deactivate windows. Repair install can at times cause deactivation.

    Der Balrog even today you can clean install windows 2000 from its coa if you can find compatible hardware(virtual machine).

    Also you are not considering the case of legacy software that is not Vista or 7 or 8 compatible.

    As you just said 2015 is when the activation servers get turned off. This is when horible problems will start raising head. Of course Windows XP volume license keys are not too bad. They disable the activation server functions.

    How Microsoft handles XP will kinda tell us what we are in for with Windows vista, 7 and 8 at end of life.

    Der Balrog so this is not a normal run of a mill end of life where you can reinstall the software if you have to and take the security risk in all cases.

  43. Der Balrog says:

    Activation servers will remain online until 2015. And even after that XP will still run unless you decide to tinker enough with your hardware to “deactivate” XP. But who’s going go tinker with outdated PCs?

  44. oiaohm says:

    Der Balrog XP is different to 2000. You are forgetting XP is the first Microsoft OS to go end of life with product activation.

    Now those without volume licenses if MS takes down the Xp activation servers hello key failure for reinstall.

  45. Der Balrog says:

    With the demise of XP imminent (M$ needs it to die) what are all the hundreds of millions of users going to do?

    When will you stop implying that it is Microsoft’s fault? They have clearly communicated when support for XP is going to end. You’re still running it? You’re rightly on your own.

    Some will try to run without support but in my experience that means they will be eaten alive by malware within months. That’s OK for polite malware but there’s only so many resources available.

    From my very personal experience I can tell you this: recently I visited some freight companies, strictly SMB, 50 to 100 employees. Do you know what I found? A majority of them was still running Windows 2000 on age-old PCs — unsupported OS, outdated browser, often no or only severely outdated anti-virus solutions, hobbyists administrating the systems, lack of even the most simple security measures. Veritable breeding grounds for malware of all sorts. For fun I booted some computers from rescue CDs I had with me to search for malware — there was none (at least on the computers I checked).

    No, I don’t want to suggest that Windows 2000 is secure. But it is deeply ironic to find Windows PCs in the wild that are connected to the internet, are running an long unsupported OS, are unprotected in about every respect, and yet there’s no malware to be found on them.

    So, what will happen? I figure a lot of users will want to use their present systems instead of replacing them and they will want a GUI that is similar to XP. That means GNU/Linux with XFCE or some such desktop environment.

    That’s a fantasy. At least for the SMB sector. The majority of companies, especially those without dedicated IT staff, simply won’t bother to replace XP unless it’s time to buy new computers. And then they will in all likelyhood get computers with Windows on them.

  46. Mats Hagglund says:

    My older son is using dual boot pc with XP and Ubuntu 10.04. I recommended him not to use XP at all network. He has followed that caution for years. On the other hand i was planning to replace Ubuntu with Linux Mint.

  47. My concern is for all the equipment out there with Windows XP embedded in them—SCADA systems, ATMs, electronic signs, even medical-monitoring devices—that are so deeply entrenched in their environments that the operators don’t even know (or care) that they are running XP. If I were a bad guy, I would hold off releasing new malware into the wild until April 9th next year… knowing that no new patches are coming after that time. We need to help folks formulate an “XP exit strategy” so that at least some people can be safe a year from now.

  48. Der Balrog says:

    “Countdown to Freedom”? No, it’s just the countdown to another failed prediction by renowned “expert” Mr. Pogson.

  49. bw says:

    “So, what will happen?”

    Building such a castle in the air wherein Linus rides to the rescue of the abandoned X users seems futile to me. These holdouts are so severely attached to their existing Windows that even Windows cannot get them to budge. What chance would a gross change in technology such as a shift to Linux have? It is like hoping that Obama can be ousted in the near future due to some irregularity of his birth certificate.

    That is simply not going to happen. As I previously posted, it would seem to me that after 12 years of use, these customers have pretty well wrung out the worst of the issues and are not likely to be bothered by anything suddenly arising from some unanticipated quarter. The easiest path forward, in the unlikely event of some new problem, would be to simply solve it and charge for the solution.

    Microsoft is known to be swayed when the opportunity to acquire large sums of money arise (remember the netbook?) and will be there if and when they are needed to do so again.

  50. eug says:

    “With the demise of XP imminent (M$ needs it to die) what are all the hundreds of millions of users going to do? Some will try to run without support but in my experience that means they will be eaten alive by malware within months.”

    Bobagem.
    Cansei de ver máquina com todos os updates instalados e mesmo assim infectada.
    A existência ou não de suporte e updates da M$ é irrelevante para a proteção da máquina.
    Agora um bom antimalware sim, é importante.
    Updates só servem para tornar a maq. mais lenta.
    Você formata a maquina e ela fica super ágil, então você faz todos os updates e ela fica super lenta.
    Isso é fato.

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