Linux Won

The game as defined by M$ was to have a copy of M$’s OS on every hard drive. They came close but their lock-in was just too expensive in money and too costly in freedom.

Of course you can’t beat $free and/or FREE (free download conveys licence to run, examine, modify and distribute). We knew that a long time ago. The idea that Wintel had some unspeakable advantage in quality or something vague that prevented the possibility of */Linux succeeding was ludicrous. Exclusive dealing may have kept GNU/Linux from a lot of retail shelves for a lot of years but we went around that. More Android/Linux on ARM units shipped last year than Wintel by a large margin. Things keep improving for Linux this year.
“Linux now owns personal computing in a very real sense. That means it’s ours to lose if we don’t stay ahead of the curve.”

see Linux Won the Desktop Wars a Long Time Ago « FOSS Force.

Canonical is winning huge share with GNU/Linux on x86/amd64 this year and governments, schools and some businesses are lapping it up. GNU/Linux is the right way to do IT. I recommend Debian GNU/Linux, however, because it has fewer agendas about changing how I do IT. I like faster and more reliable and Ubuntu GNU/Linux does not do that for me.
Dell_Ubuntu_India

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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16 Responses to Linux Won

  1. oiaohm says:

    bw “At the worst, it would indicate that they are setting lower prices for their products which is a reasonable outcome due to the extreme age of the product line itself. After all, they have been at that business for more than 30 years now.”

    Ok were is Windows CE income. That has almost completely vaporised. Windows phone 8 has not been that much of a it.

    From 2009 to 2012 many Microsoft prior income making departments have died.

    http://techrights.org/wiki/index.php/Microsoft_-_Dead_Divisions_or_Products

    bw Number of products MS makes is dropping faster than MS is creating new ones.

    94000 employees have to be supported by less incoming making products. Less full-time staff more casual as well.

    Microsoft is not looking that great bw.

    http://galesburgplanet.com/posts/18841 It also could look a lot worse very quickly.

    bw the big problem here there is an old saying don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Microsoft is very much turning into a 1 trick pony. At risk of becoming one very dead pony because it does not know enough tricks.

    bw there is still time of course. Big problem with be libreoffice html5 when that hits.

    Please remember ergon looked perfect good on paper before its debts exploded and bad internal records were exposed. Microsoft does have increasing debt without profit gain to show for it.

    2009 to 2012 MS took on a lot of debt. No profit gain.

    bw extreme age might be an excuse if we did not have a long long list of dead products.

    Even MS new surface items are looking like a new set of failure lines.

  2. bw says:

    “That’s a huge change and reflects that they are losing share.”

    We have reviewed these numbers before and you are using one number, $2671, and their report uses another, $3,296. As before, I have no idea as to how to reconcile these two numbers, contained in the same report and purporting to measure the same quantities. At least the larger operating income number comes from the same section of the report as the numbers you report for 2009.

    In any case, I don’t see how you draw the conclusions that you report. Whether their operating income is running at $11 billion or at $15 billion per year, that is not a sign of any horrible decay in their business outlook. Further, how does it have any relevance to market share? At the worst, it would indicate that they are setting lower prices for their products which is a reasonable outcome due to the extreme age of the product line itself. After all, they have been at that business for more than 30 years now.

  3. oiaohm says:

    bw Microsoft profit is so huge because the margins are so huge.

    Even for OEM the cost per unit is not zero for Microsoft. You are forgetting on going maintenance cost.

    Yes disc cost would be about 15 dollars if that. Retail does have to consider carefully how much shelf space it gives to windows because they are not allowed a very big mark up.

    “I think that they must get a lot more for that copy than for an OEM copy, too, so the margin is likely to be even higher in terms of real money. I paid $40 each for two copies of Windows 8 Professional and I had to download the installation files myself, which is just about no cost to Microsoft.”

    This is incorrect there is a few dollars cost in you downloading. Microsoft pays an outside caching service to protect there sites running Linux. They also provide developers to the Linux kernel. Thank you for funding Linux a little bit bw. There is a cost to all this download idea. Remember the Linux company I am referring to also caches all of Windows Update. So larger windows updates are the more money they make. Linux world is basically vamping a few dollars per Windows user per year over 10 years that is most of the 40 dollars you just paid up front. 40 dollars is basically cost. Maybe some short term profit on books now but when you add in cost .

    Interesting enough companies like IBM and others don’t have to pay for external company to themselves to cache.

    Yes OEMs using master disk don’t pay as much as OEM’s using Disc copies. This is why more and more machines come without installation discs and you have to burn yourself

    In fact the disappearing of media is one of the things MS has done to hide the fact of disappearing income. The other is kill product lines and complete departments at Microsoft.

    There are been no new department at Microsoft in the past 5 years. Staff numbers at Microsoft have basically stopped growing.

    http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Microsoft_%28MSFT%29/Data/Total_Number_of_employees

    http://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/MSFT–Number_of_Employees Yes increase of 1000 from 2009 to 2012. Then you have to remember MS has opened more support services.

  4. bw wrote, “Perhaps you could illustrate what you mean by that. Margins, to me, mean the difference in production costs and selling price.”

    M$ does not sell software but licences. Those licences cost very little to produce. It’s the overall performance of the client division to which I refer, the difference between revenue and operating income.

    Q4 2012 Revenue was $5253 million. Operating income was $2671 million. Their margin is ~50% of revenue.

    Q4 2009 Revenue was $5073 million and operating income was $3516 million. Their margin was 31% of revenue.

    That’s a huge change and reflects that they are losing share. They have doubled their advertising on my TV and it does them no good. Consumers aren’t buying it and they are having to expend more funds to keep businesses buying the product. OEMs stock up on the product when there is a new release but OEMs have not bought “8” hook line and sinker as they did “7”.

    In Q4 2009, unearned revenue by client division was $1.4billion compared to $2.7billion in Q4 2012. They choked the channel with licences and will have a series of very poor quarters as OEMs and businesses refuse to swallow any more. What will OEMs produce in the meantime? M$ will lose more shelf-space this year.

  5. bw says:

    “Check the margins”

    Perhaps you could illustrate what you mean by that. Margins, to me, mean the difference in production costs and selling price. For Windows, particularly OEM sales, that margin is close to 100% since Microsoft spends no money at all in supplying Windows to an OEM who has been given a master disk back in the beginning and who just continues to load a copy onto a newly produced computer, mailing Microsoft some license fee for each computer so produced.

    Microsoft spent a lot of money to develop each new release of Windows, but once that money is spent, the margin for a copy is still all the money. For packages in stores, they have to supply a box and a disk, but that is pretty low cost compared to the money they get for it. I think that they must get a lot more for that copy than for an OEM copy, too, so the margin is likely to be even higher in terms of real money. I paid $40 each for two copies of Windows 8 Professional and I had to download the installation files myself, which is just about no cost to Microsoft. If I wanted a disk, I would have to pay $14 more, so maybe that is an indicator of how much it costs them to provide a boxed set.

  6. bw wrote, “I would prefer the $60B to $70B that they get from Windows and related software”

    Check the margins. Even M$ is losing margin on the client OS. They will have to give it away for $0 to maintain share soon. The dominance of other operating systems in IT is clear. The need for that “related software” is becoming less even as M$ raises prices. The slide should happen this year and it will be regenerative. As far as I can tell the only segment where M$ is thriving is business and that is shaky because people are bringing their devices to work and businesses are doing stuff in the cloud and via thin clients to a greater extent. The M$-way is giving way to what works. For schools where i have worked, M$’s software did not work. It could not be kept working by ordinary users. GNU/Linux could.

  7. bw says:

    “Linux world does a different metric”

    Apparently so. If I were Microsoft, though, I would prefer the $60B to $70B that they get from Windows and related software each year. Somehow, in spite of the nay-saying and crepe hanging year after year, they just make more and more money. The economy has stumbled badly in the past 5 years or so, but Microsoft has almost doubled their annual revenues and profits. I don’t think that will go on forever, but it sure hasn’t abated so far.

    From all reports, Linux is a wonderful thing to have for free, but in today’s world, no one really cares. If you have a phone or an iPad, you really don’t care what’s under the hood and you are only interested in the apps, specially the freebies, that you can get for it. If you have a computer, you only want it to work with your old programs and data. You care what is under the hood only if it won’t copy over your old stuff. Then you would take it back to the store if it isn’t compatible.

    All this talk about new stuff changing Microsoft’s business looks like so much hot air to me. Just go to a store, Target, Best Buy, Office Depot, or online to Amazon and look at computers. If they aren’t Macs, they are Windows. No Linux anywhere.

  8. oiaohm says:

    bw Linux world does a different metric. Redhat sells support. There doing 1 Billion+ a year.

    Yes you have been wrong. There are many trophies and building to store it.

    Support trophy redhat is doing well.
    Hardware trophy Samsung is doing fairly well.

    Bw basic point what is a operating system if it hardware does not exist to run it? No point right. So the most important trophy is the hardware makers.

    Quality support is always required.

    Microsoft trophy was always one of temporary relevance and replaceable or destroyable. The OS trophy really is a case of Hardware makers not investing in OS development. Before Microsoft got dominance hardware makers made there own OS’s.

    We now as just seeing hardware makers return to making there own OS kinda. Except this time its a common core of Linux/GPLv2 not BSD. GPL restrictions alter the game.

    It was always a matter of time before MS would have to face of with the very OEM’s MS depends on for existence.

  9. DrLoser says:

    Well, if you can’t make a ton of money, there’s always Linux to fall back on.

  10. bw says:

    I always thought the game was to make a ton of money by selling operating system and other software to hundreds of millions of people. But I guess I was wrong. Now that Linux has won, where are they going to keep the trophy?

  11. oiaohm says:

    eug Carmack and valve are in disagreement.

    Note Carmack talks about wine. Wine Direct x 3d part is not properly multi threaded. Now that opengl under it is becoming multithreaded due to Valve involvement wine has started work to make Direct X 3d parts multi threaded.

    Even Carmack talk has caused some focus. Also Carmack has been very careful to allow him to change mind in future.

  12. George Hostler says:

    eug: “I don’t think that a good business case can be made for officially supporting Linux for mainstream games today”

    That was one opinion by one, ID Software founder, John Carmack.

    The article further states, However, the industry veteran believes that there is a way that, sometime in the future, Linux could become a viable option for big publishers. “Ideally, following a set of best practice guidelines could allow developers to get Linux versions with little more effort than supporting, say, Windows XP,” he said. “Properly evangelized, with Steam as a monetized distribution platform, this is a plausible path forward.”

    Mr. Carmack didn’t see a dead end road for Linux. Steam has already gone forward. ID is now a part of ZeniMax Media. If you look at what is available for PC’s including Microsoft Windows, most of the gaming has been dominated by video gaming machines. Viability has more than just Windows to deal with.

    With Linux of greater use in the business world, I see it moving more toward corporately managed systems communicating with internal corporate clouds (servers).

  13. eug says:

    “I don’t think that a good business case can be made for officially supporting Linux for mainstream games today”

    http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/186099/Carmack_Supporting_Linux_isnt_worth_the_hassle_at_the_moment.php

  14. George Hostler says:

    I’d say congratulations, Robert. Linux has finally triumphed. The FUD force may exclaim the contrary, but it is evident. The truth has finally prevailed. Linux is here to stay.

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