Tablets Mature

After a year or two of 100% per annum growth we are about where tablets are mature technology. We see Android/Linux has taken a big share from Apple and M$ is nowhere to be seen. Without leverage of monopoly, M$ cannot compete against the world. This demonstration of M$’s impotence should be enough to get OEMs and retailers moving GNU/Linux on x86/amd64 PCs. Canonical expects to have a great year because of that willingness to try something in the face of the sluggish legacy PC market.
“Worldwide tablet shipments outpaced predictions reaching a record total of 52.5 million units worldwide in the fourth quarter of 2012 (4Q12), according to preliminary data from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker. The tablet market grew 75.3% year over year in 4Q12 (up from 29.9 million units in 4Q11) and increased 74.3% from the previous quarter’s total of 30.1 million units.”
see Tablet Shipments Soar to Record Levels During Strong Holiday Quarter, According to IDC.

Chart: Top Five Worldwide Tablet Vendors, 2012Q4 Five Quarter Market Share Change (Units)Description: Worldwide Quarterly Tablet TrackerIDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Tracker provides total market size and vendor share for both the Tablet and eReader markets in 46 countries. Detailed segmentation is provided by CPU, operating system, connectivity type, screen size and resolution, storage, distribution channel, and customer segment. Measurement for this tracker is in units, value, and end-user price. For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact Kathy Nagamine at 1-650-350-6423 or Further detail about this tracker can be found at: Samsung, Apple, Amazon, Asus, Barnes Noble Tablet, IDC, tracker, Q4 2012, 4Q 2012, market share, galaxy, iPad, Kindle, Transformer, Nook, 2012Q4Author: IDCcharts powered by iCharts

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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14 Responses to Tablets Mature

  1. Adam King says:

    Ignoring DRBoring’s pointless screed, I still think he is employing a sockpuppet. I recommend they both get the ban hammer right up the butt.

  2. oiaohm says:

    bw I used the early apples. I can tell you now that Apple has always had better built quality compared to the XT and 286 of the time. Yes the school I went to had a working pair of IBM XT units.

    –This is not the same thing at all. Back in the PC era, Apple was indeed king, but the IBM PC was an even higher quality–

    Sorry this is a straight lie. Apple had the build quality compared to the IBM units. Higher res screens operational networking all came to Apple first.

    The difference in the end there was only so many tech advances apple could do.

    bw your quality idea is backwards. The cheap XT clone makers defeated IBM was well in the PC market.

    Basically Apple and IBM were in time consumed by the clone makers.

    –There may be a lot of the cheap stuff around, but all the money is going to be made at the top of the line, just as it is in the smartphone business.–

    dw you need to go look closers. Top of so called line have a lot higher markups. This is important. In smart phones apple has less than 10 percent market share but takes about 50 percent of the cash. 90 percent of the smart phone market is small mark-ups. bw basically step back the majority are buying the cheep knock offs. Just like the PC age.

    Der Balrog Apple has almost gone out of business twice. Microsoft has never been tested for its means to handle complete product failure. Now that Apple has a new CEO there might be some risk. I don’t think apple will die.

    Worst case for apple is being forced to release itunes on Android and GNU/Linux setups. Der Balrog exactly what does Microsoft have to fall back on if Android and GNU/Linux become dominate.

    Apple did not want to release itunes on windows either. It was that they had to eat humble pie and bow to the dominate.

  3. Der Balrog says:

    That’s only true in your padded cell, Adam.

  4. DrLoser says:

    “Vengeance on a dumb brute!” cried Starbuck, “that simply smote thee from blindest instinct! Madness! To be enraged with a dumb thing, Captain Ahab, seems blasphemous.”

    “Hark ye yet again, the little lower layer. All visible objects, man, are but as pasteboard masks. But in each event, in the living act, the undoubted deed, there, some unknown but still reasoning thing puts forth the mouldings of its features from behind the unreasoning mask. If man will strike, strike through the mask! How can the prisoner reach outside except by thrusting through the wall?”

    “To me, the white whale is that wall, shoved near to me. Sometimes I think there’s naught beyond. But ’tis enough. He tasks me; he heaps me; I see in him outrageous strength, with an inscrutable malice sinewing it. That inscrutable thing is chiefly what I hate; and be the white whale agent, or be the white whale principal, I will wreak that hate upon him.”

    “Talk not to me of blasphemy, man; I’d strike the sun if it insulted me. For could the sun do that, then could I do the other; since there is ever a sort of fair play herein, jealousy presiding over all creations. But not my master, man, is even that fair play. Who’s over me? Truth hath no confines.”

    “Take off thine eye! more intolerable than fiends’ glarings is a doltish stare! So, so; thou reddenest and palest; my heat has melted thee to anger-glow. But look ye, Starbuck, what is said in heat, that thing unsays itself. There are men from whom warm words are small indignity. I meant not to incense thee. Let it go.”

    “Look! see yonder Turkish cheeks of spotted tawn, living, breathing pictures painted by the sun. The Pagan leopards, the unrecking and unworshipping things, that live; and seek, and give no reasons for the torrid life they feel! The crew, man, the crew! Are they not one and all with Ahab, in this matter of the whale? See Stubb! he laughs! See yonder Chilian! he snorts to think of it. Stand up amid the general hurricane, thy one tost sapling cannot, Starbuck! And what is it? Reckon it. ‘Tis but to help strike a fin; no wondrous feat for Starbuck. What is it more? From this one poor hunt, then, the best lance out of all Nantucket, surely he will not hang back, when every foremast-hand has clutched a whetstone?”

    “Ah! constrainings seize thee; I see! the billow lifts thee! Speak, but speak!, Aye, aye! thy silence, then, THAT voices thee. (ASIDE) Something shot from my dilated nostrils, he has inhaled it in his lungs. Starbuck now is mine; cannot oppose me now, without rebellion.”

    From Chapter 36, “The Quarterdeck.”

    Sums everything up rather nicely, I believe.

  5. Adam King says:

    DRBoring stop talking to your sockpuppets. I know you and Der Balrog are the same.

  6. DrLoser says:

    That would be a whaler, not an ark (although of course the one is a metaphor for the other in this case).

    It’s difficult not to love a blog that attracts comments based on Herman Melville.

  7. Der Balrog says:

    Wow, first Microsoft will go out of business, then Apple. Have you already built an ark, Robert? The storm will be furious. But it could very well end like this:

    “Oh! Pogson,” cried Starbuck, “not too late is it, even now, the third day, to desist. See! Apple seeks thee not. It is thou, thou, that madly seekest him!”

  8. Mats Hagglund says:

    Looks like Apple iPad has now less than 50% market share. So is Android Linux leading OS of tablets too?

  9. bw says:

    “Spike and drop off also matches what happened to apple at start of PC”

    This is not the same thing at all. Back in the PC era, Apple was indeed king, but the IBM PC was an even higher quality nameplate and the IBM PC and the clones from Compaq and others were equals. There is no way that the public sees the $89 junkers as the same thing as an iPad. Just go to Office Depot or Target and hold them in your hands. It is easy to see the difference and that becomes even more pronounced when you actually use one.

    People go for the quality and that is Apple today. There may be a lot of the cheap stuff around, but all the money is going to be made at the top of the line, just as it is in the smartphone business.

  10. oiaohm says:

    DrLoser OEM and Profit margin is where you are a twit.

    If I am a OEM who is not an Apple supplier I cannot make any profit from the Apple devices right.

    Lot of the others turn out to be OEM/Factories in one.

    10 percent profit to hardware maker is suitable. With shipping and profit. A 30 dollar production price is a 99 dollar unit when it hits USA or Australia. OEM are happy at those prices.

    It is possible to produce some tablets now for the 30 dollar production price. 100 dollar entry price will get more powerful and production lines get more automated.

    General is 30 percent with most OEM. Apple is closer to 15 percent of the items price is production.

    Apple also did the same thing at the start of the PC age. Nothing new. Spike and drop off also matches what happened to apple at start of PC.

  11. DrLoser says:

    I think that opinion flies in the face of the mathematical facts, Robert.

    There’s a variable and a limit here. The limit is probably the simpler thing to analyse, because Apple had the game to themselves for two years or so … which means that the limit is an as-yet unplumbed depth for Apple tablet sales, based on a combination of brand, tech “thrill,” and cost.

    Apple have the margins to control the cost (and indeed hammer down the hw supply chain), and therefore the lower limit here looks to be something like 25% to me. Of course, a black swan might come along, but there’s no value in predicting those.

    The variable is the slope of the decline. Let’s face it, Robert, it isn’t a hyperbolic curve, is it? It’s not even parabolic. To me, it looks like a gentle decline. Again, probably towards 25% or so.

    In short, it isn’t clear to me that the graph you present gives any support to the rather optimistic conclusions you draw from it.

    And that’s even to forget the profit margin, which I imagine is quite an important number in the minds of OEMs.

  12. bw wrote, “Apple leads the pack by a huge margin and no one is ever going to catch up with them.”

    Nope. Apple leads the pack but is in a downturn from which they will not recover unless they cut prices to realistic levels. The fans all have their fill of Apple’s gadgets. Everyone else is buying Android/Linux.

  13. bw says:

    I wonder, too, if those numbers for Amazon only count the Kindle Fire (color Kindle) and Nook Color. I see a lot of black and white classic Kindles being used around town. I have a Kindle that is a couple of years old and my wife has a Nook that actually gets more use than her new iPad Mini. She reads a lot more books than she checks email and Facebook.

  14. bw says:

    What does Microsoft have to do with any of this? From the chart, Apple leads the pack by a huge margin and no one is ever going to catch up with them. What these unit numbers don’t show is that Apple iPads are anywhere from almost two to even ten times the price of the cheapo tablets and, if you figure the money involved, that gives Apple about 80% or more of the money spent on these things. You are comparing Apples to horse apples here.

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