Canalys – 2012 PC Shipments Up – That Other OS Down

Canalys, almost getting the definition of personal computer right, names Apple as the number one shipper in Q2 and points out that M$ is down to 73% of units shipped. If they included smart phones as computers, that share would be below 50%. Tablets account for 22% of PCs shipped according to Canalys. M$ is shipping on 73%/0.78 = 93% of non-tablet PCs by their reckoning. I doubt that or M$ would be shipping way more than 50 million licences for “7” per quarter and would have a much higher share of web stats. No, clearly Canalys is not counting some PCs. Incidentally, Canalys share is about the same as reported by Wikimedia (70% for that other OS). Wikimedia shows 105/121 = 84% that other OS for “non-mobile”.

“Canalys has advised PC vendors (Microsoft’s OEMs) to postpone launches of Windows RT pads until Microsoft rethinks the high license fee. Chris Jones, Canalys VP and Principal Analyst, added, ‘Microsoft has upset some partners by bringing its own hardware to market. Marketing, distributing and servicing such hardware profitably is hard. Once the Surface makes a material dent in Microsoft’s P&L, it will need to repair relationships with PC vendors, who are already preparing lists of demands.’”


“Canalys defines a client PC as a computing device designed to be operated by an individual and positioned to serve a broad range of purposes, achieved by running third-party applications, some of which can work independently of a network connection. When designed to be portable, it must be able to function without mains power and have a built-in display of at least 7 inches in diagonal.”

With less than 3 months remaining before “8” is shipped the whole world is set to ignore M$. On top of everything, M$ is demanding none of the ARMed machines upon which “8” will be released will be able to turn of “secure boot”. Can you see lawsuits over that one? I think it will be easier for the world just not to ship any ARMed PCs with “8” so M$ can sink into oblivion that much faster.

OEMs should not tie themselves to the anchor of a sinking ship. The best possible outcome for Wintel is static shipments. That does not seem sustainable with the huge growth of tablets and smart phones. Those are displacing some x86 PCs and that erosion will continue for the foreseeable future.

see 2012 will bring new world record in PC shipments | Canalys.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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24 Responses to Canalys – 2012 PC Shipments Up – That Other OS Down

  1. oiaohm says:

    Clarence Moon read HP and IBM long term reports to stockmarket. They are not happy at all with Microsoft.

    “Ditto for these companies promoting Android devices. It may be true that they have a few in stock, but they do not seem to be making any sort of splash.”

    What did the Android phones replace for MS major OEM people. Windows Phone 7. They have never sold a lot of phones. But they have always had Windows phones to match up with the Windows OS until recently. Its called the upsell option. You have sold someone a Windows OS machine you would upsell them a Windows phone. Now its upsell them an android phone.

    Basically the OEM MS depends on is voicing that they are upset. Question is will Windows 8 make them happy again with the surface tablet unlikely. They are already making there own Android tablets.

    Clarence Moon MS lose of moblie phone market share is linked to there own OEM turning against them. The question is how far are the OEM’s going to take it.

  2. Clarence Moon says:

    HP IBM Dell… Most of them have voiced hate of Windows 8. Also making it clear by releasing Android devices

    You are just talking out of your butt as usual, Mr. O. Personally, I am totally unaware of any “hate” speech made by Dell, HP, or even IBM in regard to Windows 8. Can you Google some up?

    Ditto for these companies promoting Android devices. It may be true that they have a few in stock, but they do not seem to be making any sort of splash.

    As to your charmingly unsophisticated views on product marketing, I can only smile. Check the results next spring.

  3. oiaohm says:

    Clarence Moon
    http://www.computerweekly.com/blogs/public-sector/2012/07/ec-rubber-stamped-microsoft-mo.html

    1990-1995 is where MS Market share starts. With many deals around the world bias in it favour over the competition.

  4. oiaohm says:

    Clarence Moon
    “Can you really see Microsfoft’s Ballmer saying “Let’s spend a few billion developing a crazy-looking UI and then we’ll spring it on everbody next year!”. Of course not. The OEMs are all in the good old boy club, just as you suspect, and they sit around on Steve’s yacht periodically and decide how they are going to split up the pie for the next go-around.”
    In fact no. HP IBM Dell… Most of them have voiced hate of Windows 8. Also making it clear by releasing Android devices.

    Clarence Moon
    “As to the Surface product, my marketing instincts shout at me to say that this is a classic example of a market leader setting a stake in the ground that they expect their followers to rally around. ”

    You have a short memory Clarence Moon.
    http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/19/technology/microsoft-surface-table-pixelsense/index.htm
    Surface starts in 2007-2008 and it was a flop.

    The surface tablet is attempt to recover some profit from the surface table department. Calling the tablet surface is an attempt to recycle the marketing spent on the surface table.

    “Surface a trump card” yep same was said about the Surface Table. So exactly what is new now.

    You forget items like playforsure on mp3 and others. Microsoft putting a flag in the ground and say rally almost never works. Like 95 release the OEMS paid for marketing. They rallyed back then. By XP Microsoft was having to foot the bill. The last successful OEM rally MS did was 1995.

    idevices have had a far more successful rally calls to OEMs to make third party products.

    It is going to be a real out side chance that OEM do rally over surface tablet. There is a risk of the exact other way.

    Reason you will not see a rally is the market is fairly well saturated with products. MS has tried the high end card with Windows Phone 7/8 and you know how well they sold. Market is tell us that the high end plus MS normally does not work. I am not saying it will not this time but the market feeling is against it.

    Clarence Moon
    “Nook and Kindle and now Nexus are slugging it out on 7″ devices, running the prices into the ground and profits out the window as a response to Apple.”
    Who are you kidding. Not one of those android devices is selling for less than they cost to make.

    Price of making these devices is dropping. Why because more and more are being made without ever seeing a human in the factory. So there is 20 to 40 percent profit on the Android devices.

    Those high result-ion screens Apple is using is not cheap they also require larger battery for the same life. 7inch lets the android device avoid being compared on screen result-ion. Also allows the device to be lighter due to smaller battery.

    Basically the android and the apple both have the same basic level of mark up on them. 40 percent to hardware price.

  5. Clarence Moon says:

    Like when M$ releases their “Surface” product???

    Use some common sense, Mr. Pogson. I think your emotions are running away from your reason. For all the Machiavellian attributes you assign to Microsoft, would you npt suppose that they are in close and continuous contact with the handful of OEMs who process the major part of Microsoft’s business?

    Can you really see Microsfoft’s Ballmer saying “Let’s spend a few billion developing a crazy-looking UI and then we’ll spring it on everbody next year!”. Of course not. The OEMs are all in the good old boy club, just as you suspect, and they sit around on Steve’s yacht periodically and decide how they are going to split up the pie for the next go-around.

    Movers and shakers at Microsoft, LG, Sony, Dell, HP, and many others, likely Apple and Google, too, are in constant mesh, engaged in the sort of “com-oper-tition” that has kept everyone fat, dumb, and happy for the past 30 years. Put Intel and the others in that boat, too.

    As to the Surface product, my marketing instincts shout at me to say that this is a classic example of a market leader setting a stake in the ground that they expect their followers to rally around. None of the OEMs are making any profitable headway against the iPad in the iPad space, namely the upscale 10″ $600+ tablet. Nook and Kindle and now Nexus are slugging it out on 7″ devices, running the prices into the ground and profits out the window as a response to Apple.

    Microsoft is merely showing the way. They are going to position an upscale device with a high visible brand above the iPad space and they are going to make owning a Surface a trump card to owning an iPad. That gives Microsoft’s traditional OEMs some room to sell similar devices under the iPad price levels without actually robbing them of top-end sales, which they never had in the first place.

  6. oiaohm says:

    Clarence Moon
    “Well, the same can be said for Windows, Mr. O. Microsoft has to supply a product that the OEMs agree to be effective for their purposes and so they dictate what happens with Windows. Microsoft’s ability to meet OEM requirements has kept Microsoft at the top for several decades now. The top is where they will remain until the PC market disappears.”

    Not really. percentage of that time fueled by Anti-trust actions. Including increase price of supply on those who shipped there own OS’s.

    OEM’s have slapped MS in the face many times. Like the surface touch tables.

    MS spread that GPL was bad. Android a lot of carriers and so on are now looking at gecko on the go and meego related.

    Nothing says MS will remain on top until the end.

    Clarence Moon android is different to windows in one very particular way. Maker can do there own custom versions. HTC android is not just android its been highly altered.

    MS has not really let OEM makers do there own customised.

    Clarence Moon really I have understood the complete time its large companies vs large companies. Problem is you had the wrong large company in charge of Android future.

    What happens in Linux kernel is fueling gecko on the go and the meego forks back into the market.

    So android is not the end of the market changes. Its just the start. OEM makers will always want to stand out from other OEM makers.

    Clarence Moon
    “Those who contribute their time without compensation and actually do contribute to the common weal are the bigger fools in my thinking.”

    It is over 80 percent of people in the FOSS world paid to work on it. Its like you are running a server you have a problem you know how to fix it you paid to fix it you submit patch up stream. So your workmanship is reviewed. You were paid.

    Android developing an application it a bug in android fix it submit patch up stream. Again you were paid.

    Corporations thrive true but FOSS Platform also makes sure the little guy gets a fair go as well since everyone can see the same amount of the platform.

    Clarence Moon Microsoft does not do what ever the hardware maker asks. If hardware maker decides that for some reason today they want to release an android 1.5 device they are free to under Android.

    Android allows OEM’s to ship what ever version the OEM maker thinks suits their product.

    “fawn over a few K of bits that execute state switching and arbitrate task priority.”

    Really the parts I call important items like meego and gecko on the go require as well.

    The FOSS world does not end at one simple point OEM’s will keep on bring new stuff into the market.

  7. Clarence wrote, “Microsoft has to supply a product that the OEMs agree to be effective for their purposes and so they dictate what happens with Windows.”

    Like when M$ releases their “Surface” product??? The OEMs don’t agree to anything. M$ tells them what to do and they have to do it if they want to stay in the PC business. That’s changing and will likely end within a year or so but it has been SOP for decades.

  8. Clarence Moon says:

    The reality is a bunch of OEMs is in control of Android.

    Well, the same can be said for Windows, Mr. O. Microsoft has to supply a product that the OEMs agree to be effective for their purposes and so they dictate what happens with Windows. Microsoft’s ability to meet OEM requirements has kept Microsoft at the top for several decades now. The top is where they will remain until the PC market disappears.

    At the end of the day, it is just a competition amongst a dozen or so large corporations for the buyer’s software buck and it seems to me to be rather silly for you Linux fans to fawn over a few K of bits that execute state switching and arbitrate task priority.

    Those who contribute their time without compensation and actually do contribute to the common weal are the bigger fools in my thinking. Added to them are the wannabes who actually contribute nothing but fool themselves into thinking that they are part of some “community” working to thwart the evil institutions like Microsoft, Apple, Adobe, Oracle, Intuit, etc., who glean the tens of billions in profits annually from supplying software to the world’s computer users.

    At the end of the day, the corporations thrive, even in this time of adverse economic conditions, and nothing much changes except that every few months there is some new development for everyone to talk about until the next iPhone arrives.

    Meanwhile, PC Linux enjoys its 1% usage share and 0% market share.

  9. Ted says:

    “Clarence Moon wrote, “Android as a product is much more akin to Windows than it is to Linux. But perhaps you really are too numb to see that.”

    What he meant to write was “I have no basis for my opinion of Android/Linux so I will bash oiaohm for punctuation.””

    http://mrpogson.com/2012/07/31/databases-expensive-oracle-offers-route-from-sql-server-to-mysql/#comment-92903

    “Don’t write for me. I can think for myself.”

  10. oiaohm says:

    Clarence Moon that is the thing. One part is the platform define one part is the kernel.

    Android/Linux GNU/Linux….

    Clarence Moon “You can’t mess with Android” You can mess with a lot of Linux routers either or a tivo… They are Linux still.

    If you can or cannot modify it does not change if it Linux or not. Changes if it a open FOSS platform yes.

    Clarence Moon
    “The only code that goes into Android is code that is put there by Google, just like Windows code is placed there by Microsoft.”
    Not 100 percent true. Windows yes you are correct Android not completely true.

    Kernel level with android that is not true for the 4.0+ versions.

    The kernel.org project has final say on all new patches to android kernel. Reason quality control at kernel.org is higher than Google internal was. Yes there were a lot of kernel based security bugs in older androids when Google was in charge of the kernel in there own right that traced to google created code. Error per line of code was higher google internal than at kernel.org.

    http://elinux.org/Android_Mainlining_Project This team is part Google Part Vendors and Part Linux general developers.

    Google maintains a iron fist over the userspace ABI even so the Google userspace ABI has changed the kernel features it requires in places to be more mainline Linux compadible. As of 3.4 Linux kernel the stock Android Google Userspace will run. Ok security items not working but it runs.

    Clarence Moon the path we are on at some point there will not be an Android Linux Kernel. It will be just the kernel.org kernel mainline.

    Clarence Moon this is the problem management of the kernel for Android devices is kernel.org not Google. This is why Android without question is a Linux. There are a few patches still that are from old google development that are not resolved.

    This is also why items like seccomp filters other name seccomp v2 has going mainline first.

    Clarence Moon kernel.org only accepts quality code.

    Even with the Google userspace if I have a idea for a feature I want and can code it I can still submit it to google to go threw approval to be include.

    Clarence Moon tell me can I submit code to windows without being windows staff.

    http://source.android.com/source/submit-patches.html << Here is the tinkers invite.
    So yes you are allowed to submit alterations to Android. Does not mean you will be approved if you are approved you get your name in the credits.

    Google does final approval yes. The Nexuis class devices are made so tinkers can do there own proto alterations to android and test them before submitting upstream.

    Clarence Moon yes you are welcome to tinker with Android if you wish. Just buy your devices the right way.

    Linus on the Linux kernel has final say what the Userspace syscalls will be. Does not prevent you from making your own altered kernel.

    http://www.cyanogenmod.com/ is a case of people making there own Android relation.

    Clarence Moon your claim is very much like saying you cannot mess with ubuntu. If you wish to mess with Android you can. Locked down bootloaders on some devices might get in way both otherwise no problem.

    Clarence Moon windows and android are massively different. Legally I can make a fork of Android as long as I don't call it Android and ship it on as many devices as a like.

    Windows I cannot legally make a fork of it and ship on as many devices as I like.

    Of course Android does not prevent you from being an ass and bootloader locking the device. UEFI microsoft is doing the same thing to x86 and ARM hardware.

    Clarence Moon google is less in control of android than Microsoft is in charge of windows. Many companies sit on the development board of Android at google. Mostly hardware vendors. Those vendors can out vote google and have something include in Android google does not particularly want.

    So really Google is not in-control of Android at all Clarence Moon. They are one of the parties that have some control over Android.

    Hardware vendors do not have a seat at Microsoft to control the development of Windows.

    Who has true final say on what is in or out of the userspace of android. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_Handset_Alliance That group.

    So if you were complain about Open Handset Alliance having too much power over android you would be correct. Google is only a small fish in the Android pond. Or on other words the marketing department.

    Android is run on a completely different model. Open Handset Alliance passed a vote ordering Google to move kernel development of android to kernel.org due to too many bugs.

    Clarence Moon you have a complete failure to understand who is really in control of Android. You have looked for Microsoft like company. Google got its foothold by being willing todo what ever hardware makers asked it todo.

    The reality is a bunch of OEMs is in control of Android.

  11. Clarence Moon says:

    What he meant to write was …

    No, what I wrote was exactly what I meant to write. Certainly you do not see things the same way that I do but that is not because I am looking at them incorrectly. Android is a software environment akin to Windows that is tightly controlled by a commercial entity and does not allow tinkerers such as the Linux fans to mess about with it. The only code that goes into Android is code that is put there by Google, just like Windows code is placed there by Microsoft.

    Android is used by a bunch of OEMs as a device platform competing mostly with Apple on technology terms in the phone and tablet markets just as Windows is used by many of the same OEMs to compete in the PC arena with Apple.

    You can’t mess with Android, Mr. Pogson, they don’t want your meddling and it matters not one whit where a handful of bits and bytes that control state switching and priority scheduling derive from. Rather, the APIs define the platform for Android, just as they do for Windows.

    As I pointed out the other day, I don’t think that the source of these few bits and bytes has any real meaning in the market or in the impact of Android or Windows on technology futures. Nokia’s loss is a loss mostly to Finland and a gain for the USA in Cupertino particularly. There is plenty of opportunity for hobbyists to amuse themselves and a growing opportunity for software developers to gain a foothold with users through the Apple store, Google store, Amazon store, and even Microsoft store. There is a lot of noise being made, though, and it is very hard to get oneself heard.

  12. kozmcrae says:

    “akin”

    Clarence is clawing at the language. Good one Clarence. Desperation is the Mother of expiration. Clarence is running out of excuses for his beloved Microsoft.

  13. oiaohm says:

    Clarence Moon the problem http://thejournal.com/articles/2012/06/05/linux-based-systems-lead-server-growth.aspx

    Window is growing slower than Linux in revenue. This is unlikely to change going forwards.

    In fact in units its worse than that. IDC and Gartner don’t do unit figures.

    Clarence Moon
    “So you all say, but I cannot believe that you really believe that it is the same thing. Android as a product is much more akin to Windows than it is to Linux. But perhaps you really are too numb to see that.”

    When it comes to the Kernel Android and GNU/Linux are becoming one and the same. So when it comes to hardware support they are becoming one and the same.

    To the GNU/Linux world Android is just another Java like platform that they have to work out how to contain and run.

    Improvements to kernel code to boost Androids power usage effectiveness, Performance ….. All are effecting GNU/Linux.

    This is the thing Clarence Moon they are blood brothers so one helps the other.

    By trademark Clarance Moon. Linux is not a OS its a Kernel. Anything containing the Linux kernel is Linux by trademark. By valid use to trademark Android is Linux. Desktop Linux or GNU/Linux is a sub breed of the Linux blood relations.

    GNU/Linux title exists because not all Linux’s out there have a open source userspace.

    This is the problem lot of places miss count by trademark by splitting android from Linux numbers.

    Besided people call Ubuntu/Linux, Ubuntu. Its common to drop the /Linux bit. Since the /Linux bit is stating the kernel.

    OS X/Darwin iOS/Darwin. So iOS and OS X are both Darwin they are both vastly different OS’s.

    Xbox 360/NT Windows 7/NT first Xbox/NT. They are all Windows NT Kernel class OS’s.

    Yes when you start using kernel titles the breeds that are the same are vastly different. If I asked people to list all Windows NT Kernel based most people miss including Xbox and Xbox 360.

    Clarence Moon basically I call a spade a spade an shovel a shovel. I don’t call a spade a shovel.

    Better example a spade with a long handle and a spade with a short handle is still a spade because the tip of it is spade shaped. Yet each are not suitable for all the same jobs.

    Clarence Moon you would be a person who would attempt to guess if someone is a spade or a shovel by the length handle sticking up and fail to look at properly to see what it is.

    Android is Linux. It is not GNU/Linux or conventional desktop Linux. Even that conventional desktop linux applications run on it http://linuxonandroid.blogspot.com.au/ Linux on android is a interesting one. The provided img files lack a Linux kernel. So answer the riddle how do they run if they don’t have a Linux kernel in the img. Yes they only run because Android has a Linux kernel and they are using that.

    Yes Android and GNU/Linux are close enough to use the same kernel. Linux on android is using normal GNU/Linux arm binaries. No special building.

    Clarence Moon android is a lot closer to mainline Linux than it first appears. In fact its getting closer. Wayland work to support running in android as a app will bring it even closer. Current solution uses Linux standard vnc server. Nothing in the images is special built for android.

    Android has a different security design.

    Windows running Linux inside colinux style needs an extra Linux kernel. They are not blood.

    Basically at some point you will be able to open a GNU based desktops up as just a normal android application to access the applications of the what people call Linux Desktops on android. Same with the reverse.

  14. Clarence Moon wrote, “Android as a product is much more akin to Windows than it is to Linux. But perhaps you really are too numb to see that.”

    What he meant to write was “I have no basis for my opinion of Android/Linux so I will bash oiaohm for punctuation.”

    We know people use “Android” instead of “Android/Linux” and “Linux” instead of “GNU/Linux” so Clarence’s statement is vague at least and quite wrong most likely. Android/Linux is an OS as is that other OS but it definitely is not “kin”. It’s FLOSS, for instance, and the Linux part of it is a cooperative product of the world, making it’s own software independently of a bully, M$.

    As a product, many sellers describe the Linux kernel as being part of Android/Linux. So, Clarence is wrong. There is a lot of advertising that just says “Android” but that’s to do with brand recognition and brevity just as they don’t list all the specs on advertising intended for consumers, just the highlights or newest features. Go to kernel.org and you see similar things, just the highlights unless you download the complete changelogs. Consumers may not even choose “Android”. They may like the heft of a device, the qualities of the display or the price as long as the thing gets the job done.

  15. Clarence Moon says:

    Android uses the Linux kernel so is Linux

    So you all say, but I cannot believe that you really believe that it is the same thing. Android as a product is much more akin to Windows than it is to Linux. But perhaps you really are too numb to see that.

    For number of physical servers on the ground Linux clearly beats Windows

    In terms of revenues, Windows servers account for roughly half of all server sales, some 3 times the value of Linux servers. In terms of unit sales, Windows servers account for over 70% of units shipped, based on the IDC and Gartner figures reviewed here some months back.

    I thought I had already told you to get back and bone up on your history. You are losing your grip. Oh, and pay some particular attention to the chapters on Russian moon landings and sample returns. Maybe a little on lunar satellite popularity as well.

  16. Clarence Moon wrote, “The same statistics you rely on above to “prove” that Windows is on its way out show Linux as barely above the 1% mark”.

    I have shown those stats are heavily biased in favour of that other OS so a decline in the share of that other OS is real. The ~1% share of GNU/Linux is pure fantasy and results from an apparent bias to business use of software. e.g. In California there are huge school divisions with many thousands of GNU/Linux users that never rated a blip on NetApplications’ data. Google, however shows up with just 10K users and swings an entire state of 37million to a large percentage of GNU/Linux use. Hint: there are way more than 10K users of GNU/Linux in California who don’t work at Google and NetApplications does not count them.

    OTOH we can see GNU/Linux getting plenty of retail shelf-space and placing on best-sellers lists in Brazil. That does not happen for 1-percenters.

  17. oiaohm wrote of the GNU/Linux desktop, “It just needs to be refined a little more.”

    In Brazil, Russia, India, Malaysia and China where GNU/Linux desktops get retail shelf-space galore, GNU/Linux desktops sell well. You mention client lock-in but a bigger problem on the consumer side of things is vendor lock-in. e.g. Walmart in USA sells only one GNU/Linux PC, the eeeBox. Walmart in Brazil sells tons of GNU/Linux PCs. Brazil even exports GNU/Linux PCs to the rest of South America. No problem selling them there.

    So, refinement of the GNU/Linux desktop is not the critical bottleneck. M$ and its “partners” are the biggest problem.

  18. oiaohm says:

    Clarence Moon
    http://klang.eudyptula.org/
    Really this is last in a long line of desktop focused changes that developers are starting todo with the kernel.

    fblog basically linux at long last getting a blue/red/black screen of death equal. Yes MS has made it confusing changing the colour of that for instructions.

    Lot of latancey work has gone in. Linux for a long time was designed for volume processing not low latancey. Yes volume processing where the desktop can stop for 5 seconds while the system is doing something else does not make a good user experience.

    Clarence Moon
    “All of your enthusiasm for Linux today seems to me to flow from use of Android on tablets and smart phones, which is, again in my opinion, a far cry from the PC market where Microsoft makes their money.”
    You are aware that the Android Kernel and the Mainline Linux kernel are in a process of merge. With cgroups GNU/Linux on Android or Android on GNU/Linux will not be a major problem. So both platforms will use exactly the same kernel. Yes work on making cgroups functional tracks to fixing up desktop issues.

    Clarence Moon
    “This track record of commercial failure for Linux”

    Please title what you are saying. Android uses the Linux kernel so is Linux. It has been commercially successful. Redhat in areas it targets has been very commercially successful. I can go on and on. Only area where Linux has not been commercial successful has been the desktop. Lot of that traces to vendor lock in problems. These still include the means to open all .doc files. The virtualisation that exists today makes a lot of these problems less of a problem. 10 years ago virtualisation running windows instances forget it.

    The market has moved. The field has changes in Linux favour. Linux itself still has a lot of things it should have done to get ready for the field change and did not have it ready. The masive sales of the netbooks woke the Linux world up to the fact the desktop market was possible. Yes Linux was not ready back then.

    Clarence Moon
    “For that matter, there are no reasons to think that Linux will ever catch up with Windows in the server market either.”
    For number of physical servers on the ground Linux clearly beats Windows. Problem is items like Linux Based NAS boxes people miss counting. Most business have a Linux server somewhere doing something. Linux can be there phone system any other number of roles.

    Reality the the big thing that slowed Linux down on server market take was the year 2000 and ADS and the fact Microsoft did not release the information about ADS. So to control windows clients properly you require a Windows Server or use to. There are already solutions using Samba 4 even that is not final release yet.

    Clarence Moon last 3 quarters in server sales Linux is the only one that grew income percentage. Interesting that 3 quarters ago the first products containing samba 4 hit the market. So with Linux income growth there is every reason to suspect Linux will catch and pass Windows Server at some point in income numbers. Most likely at the cost of Windows Server Sales.

    Yes Oldman is going to be tempted to step in here and say Samba 4 is not production ready. Yes that is the offically the statue but even that is not production ready status is already having market effect has to be a worry to how much of the Windows Server slice it is going to take.

    Question is Clarence Moon how big of a house of cards is the Windows Server market. Openchange that is already used in business to reduce vpn load of exchange because to outlook is insanely noisy. When combined with Samba 4 Openchange allows using any of the other open source groupware with outlook and many the open source crm’s that include email servers support with outlook that do not integrate currently.

    You basic out the box software of Windows is covered.

    Remember using openchange and samba 4 you can have as many subdomains as you like and as large of ADS forest as you like and as many users or devices as you like. There are no Client Access License to keep paperwork on or do paperwork on. No extra costs because you want to stick X department/Office on there own server isolated from everyone else.

    Each of those departments can have there own customised CRM’s.

    Clarence Moon Linux in the server room does allow you do what ever you need todo as long as Linux can do it. Issue has been that Linux has not done ADS or Virtual NTFS on network shares. Samba 4 brings both. Virtual NTFS means programs that in the past would fail on Samba due to NTFS permissions not being there will now work. So other than the Administrator and costs the Linux box is just a Windows machine to the rest of the windows users.

    Clarence Moon Microsoft is not going to cloud based providing of exchange and so on without good reason. The simple reason for the local physical server there will most like not be any need at all to have windows.

    Clarence Moon track record of commerical failure take Edison and the light bulb. Edison did not invent the light bulb he perfected it so it worked. Before Edison the light bulb was a commercial failure except in rare places. Yet everyone could see the advantages of it. One of those rare places was mines with explosive items that did not like flame. Even that the early light bulb were not putting out much light they did not make you dead.

    Linux currently is very much like the first light bulbs before Edison on the desktop. It just needs to be refined a little more. Even edison light bulbs today’s ones are crap.

    The server side Linux does not need much more refined meant todo what is required. ADS, MailServer, Document Storage…. All in a Windows client compatible way. Most of this you can link up solutions that do it.

    MS also stops Small business server with the next versions of MS Windows Server. http://www.zentyal.org and others will be able to take advantages of this.

    Desktop I can see your point Clarence Moon that the change might not be soon. But the Desktop market is also in decline. The growing market is the portable device. The portable devices in fact encourages using thin-terminals and Web style solutions to control data. Both of these rendering what is running on the desktop as non important.

    So the rise of Android and portable devices mirrors the decline in businesses wanting desktop machines. You have to provide thin-client services for the person using portable todo everything. So you drop a 100 dollar thin terminal box on their desk as well and save yourself some maintenance.

    The rise in portable devices also means less business operations being Linux Desktop incompatible. The field for the Linux desktop is progressively getting Greener. Yet the field for the Microsoft desktop is slowly dieing. Supporting devices is removing the issues to running Linux client side as well.

    I see windows desktop myself in business being something reduced back to running virtualised on the server in most cases. Everything else Linux Desktop or Android or ipad. This example is what is happen now in most business doing migrations to Linux and android devices.

    Clarence Moon android devices are part of the market space in business.

  19. Clarence Moon says:

    •a lot of OEMs…national governments…local governments…many schools…many businesses

    Only a pipe dream for you, Mr. Pogson. The same statistics you rely on above to “prove” that Windows is on its way out show Linux as barely above the 1% mark and your favorite Debian to be barely nonzero.

    As I posted a while back, it would seem that, if there are any actual Linux preinstall sales in the Asia or other third world regions, they are being paved over with Windows, likely an unauthorized copy, before they appear on the internet and register their presence.

    No worries there in any case for Microsoft. Whatever money is to be had, they receive.

  20. Clarence Moon wrote, “Linux has been a reasonably capable OS for the desktop for well over a decade and that no such thing has happened.”

    A lot has happened with the GNU/Linux desktop in the last decade:

    • a lot of OEMs began to ship it,
    • national governments began to use it and to promote it,
    • local governments began to use it and to promote it,
    • many schools began to use it, and
    • many businesses of all sizes began to use it internally, not just as a product.

    There was very little of that a decade ago. Catalysts were things like IBM investing in GNU/Linux, promoting it and using it internally, Munich going public with their migration, Dell, ASUS and other OEMs making big sales to consumers, governments and educational institutions. The only thing remaining to hold GNU/Linux back as far as I can see it the reluctance of certain “partners” of M$ to allow it retail shelf-space. In countries like Brazil or Malaysia that is not a problem and GNU/Linux sells well. GNU/Linux is selling so well in Brazil that even Walmart stocks it for consumers and Positivo of Brazil exports millions of units annually to the rest of South America.

  21. Clarence Moon says:

    sooner or later

    No one really knows the future, Mr. Pogson, so you may be right. Or not. What we do know is that Linux has been a reasonably capable OS for the desktop for well over a decade and that no such thing has happened.

    All of your enthusiasm for Linux today seems to me to flow from use of Android on tablets and smart phones, which is, again in my opinion, a far cry from the PC market where Microsoft makes their money.

    This track record of commercial failure for Linux does make it a likely outcome that it will never supplant Windows in the PC desktop market. For that matter, there are no reasons to think that Linux will ever catch up with Windows in the server market either.

    I would agree, though, that Windows Phone chances in the phone market and even Windows RT in the tablet arena are much less certain. Time will tell here also and fairly soon, I think.

  22. Clarence Moon wrote, of M$, “they are not appearing to be getting out of the business anytime soon.”

    Of the personal computer OS, they may settle at some share below 50% sooner or later. They could even be out of the business as OEMs realize they can just ship a FLOSS OS and cut M$ out of the pie immediately. If M$ seriously entered the PC hardware business they would experience tiny margins compared to what they have now but they might be able to cling to a significant share of PCs. Of course, then, everyone would know whose “partner” they really are.

    Date Wikimedia Share
    ~June 2019 0%
    June 2012 70.45%
    June 2011 80.08%
    June 2010 86.32
  23. Clarence Moon says:

    Linux is now leading OS.

    By your (and Mr. Pogson’s) reckoning that may very well be the case. What sort of prize to you expect to get in the mail in recognition of this achievement?

    Profits from cell phones seem to have left Finland and moved to Cupertino and Japan and perhaps Korea and Taiwan as well. I doubt that many Finns are celebrating that.

    OTOH, Microsoft continues to make a lot of money from Windows and allied endeavors. Perhaps they could make more if they actually ruled the world, but that is a lot more work than just ruling the PC OS market. I think they have become lazy and have given up world domination and are just taking the easy way out now, collecting their billions from existing product revenues and occasionally taking a flyer on something new such as Surface.

    In any case, they are not appearing to be getting out of the business anytime soon.

  24. Mats Hagglund says:

    How many Wintet-smartphones in Q2 2012. Hardly even 10 million? Surely there haven’t been much more than 90 million new Windows-devices during second quarter of this year. That’s 90/265 x 100 ~ 34%

    We are actually rather polite if we were saying that Windows is now below 50%. Actually Windows in now near 1/3 and there are much more Linux based new devices coming than those based on Windows.

    Linux is now leading OS.

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