Even M$’s Fans Are Grim About Prospects for That Other OS

““Just 0.18 percent of all the computers that went online during June ran one of the previews of Windows 8, statistics Net Applications showed last week. Of those PCs running Windows, 0.2 percent — or 20 out of 10,000 — were powered by Windows 8.
“As in April, when Computerworld last used Net Applications’ data to analyze Windows 8 uptake, the new OS’ June numbers were dramatically lower than Windows 7′s at the same point in its development.
“In June 2009, four months before its launch, Windows 7 accounted for 0.75 percent of all computers and 0.80 percent of all Windows machines. In other words, Windows 7′s share was four times that of Windows 8.””

Users and OEMs are grim about “8”‘s prospects. What are retailers going to do, open bargain-basements for “8”?

see Is the End Of the Windows Era At Hand? « FOSS Force.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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30 Responses to Even M$’s Fans Are Grim About Prospects for That Other OS

  1. Ted says:

    “Not close at all.”

    What world of minute differences do you live in that ~1% (the accepted average, like it or not) and 6.2% (the highest figure you quote) are not close together? The figures you yourself quote, (5% and 6.26%) are even closer together!

    And the numbers you quote still fall short of the wishful thinking 10% of Caitlyn Martin, and your own Cloud-Cuckoo-Land figure of 19%?

    Face it, the OS stats out there are closer to the truth than you will admit to.

    “Comments on my site: 60% GNU/Linux.”

    BFD. Is that what you’re reduced to? Quoting your own posting figures? Where you and Oiaohm are easily the most frequent posters?

  2. Ted wrote, “Amazing how close together all the results are, too.”

    Not close at all. W3Schools.com, a M$-centric site with .asp, .net etc. has 5% GNU/Linux. Wikimedia, which is mostly en.wikipedia.org show 6.26% */Linux (4.73% Android/Linux and by subtraction, 1.53% GNU/Linux). Comments on my site: 60% GNU/Linux.

  3. Ted says:

    NetApplications are biased?

    Good job I quoted MORE THAN ONE source for operating system marketshare then, isn’t it? Amazing how close together all the results are, too.

    If all the trackers out there show Linux as about 1% marketshare world-wide or for particular continents or countries, are they all wrong? Or are they only right when the figures for Linux are higher, like Googleville in Sunnyvale?

  4. Ted wrote, out of ignorance at least, “Ever heard the phrase “statistical blip”?

    Sunnyvale is an exception, not the rule.”

    Ever heard of an average or weighted mean?

    10K people at Google should have about 10K/20million effect on the average for California, a state of 37million people, that’s 0.5X10-3 or 0.05%, not a huge factor. They are being over-counted and have been for years. The reason is that NetApplications ignores lots of PCs and counts only ones used in business from business domains during office hours. They ignore all the millions in California who use GNU/Linux in homes, schools, and offices but are not as well-connected as Google. This is not a blip, random fluctuation or anything normal at all. It is systemic bias by NetApplications.

    So, if NetApplications and has that bias in favour of GNU/Linux in one small city, how much does that bias get reflected in all the businesses using that other OS around the world? If GNU/Linux is over-counted by a factor of ten when used by business, is that other OS over-counted by a factor of ~two in their global stats? That’s what’s happening if they count business use and ignore the rest of us.

    Then you could look at China where apparently XP is rampant. NetApplications weights their numbers by population… so those XP machines in China even though far fewer than machines in USA count more. How do you like that?

  5. Ted says:

    “Of course that’s not supported by the facts. Even NetApplications and which is a source of the ~1% number which is a “partner” of M$ states California, a state of 37million people, has 9.64% usage of GNU/Linux. Amazingly, most of them are concentrated in Sunnyvale, a city of only 140K people.”

    Ever heard the phrase “statistical blip”?

    Sunnyvale is an exception, not the rule.

    Taking the US as a whole, Linux has dropped below “Other”. Should I now start referring to it as “that statistically ‘Other’ OS”?

    Worldwide, most stats counters say that statistically ‘Other’ OS is hovering at around the 1% mark. A notable exception to the ~1% being W3Schools. A predictable result, given W3Schools’s technically oriented audience.

    “Then there are the facts that Walmart sells more GNU/Linux boxes than that other OS in Brazil, Dell and Lenovo are fighting with each other to sell GNU/Linux boxes in China and India,”

    Few of them seem to make it onto the Internet, then;

    Brazil – 0.93% on StatCounter, 1.4% on NetMarketShare.
    India – 1.17% on StatCounter, 2.41% on NetMarketShare. Nosebleeds!
    China – presumably lumped in with “Other” at 1.37% on StatCounter. 0.36% on NetMarketShare. In China, it looks like that statistically ‘Other’ OS barely raises a ripple.

    All stats (this month or current quoted) from;

    http://gs.statcounter.com/#os-ww-monthly-200807-201207

    http://marketshare.hitslink.com/operating-system-market-share.aspx?qprid=8&qpcustomd=0

    http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_os.asp

    http://www.statowl.com/operating_system_market_share.php

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_systems

    http://royal.pingdom.com/2012/02/28/linux-is-the-worlds-fastest-growing-desktop-os-up-64-percent-in-9-months/
    (Still less than 2%, in an article trumpeting a massive increase. Raised from statistical noise to insignificant…)

    “There’s a problem with wilful ignorance. It doesn’t work.”

    Couldn’t agree more.

  6. Clarence Moon repeating the ~1% lie, wrote, “less than one in a hundred”.

    Of course that’s not supported by the facts. Even NetApplications and which is a source of the ~1% number which is a “partner” of M$ states California, a state of 37million people, has 9.64% usage of GNU/Linux. Amazingly, most of them are concentrated in Sunnyvale, a city of only 140K people. Obviously he or NetApplications or both cannot do maths very well.

    Then there are the facts that Walmart sells more GNU/Linux boxes than that other OS in Brazil, Dell and Lenovo are fighting with each other to sell GNU/Linux boxes in China and India, and numerous high profile migrations of organizations large and small to GNU/Linux have been successful, performed well and saved tons of money which Clarence Moon chooses to ignore.

    There’s a problem with wilful ignorance. It doesn’t work.

    He also wrote, “From a sales and marketing point of view, that is an abject failure “.

    Chuckle. People don’t try to sell FLOSS. They share it. That worked very well when individuals had to install GNU/Linux themselves on PCs. Now is a different era when OEMs are shipping millions of boxes with GNU/Linux annually. There are lots of forces at work besides salesmanship: cost, margins, malware, cloud, small cheap computers, mobile, etc. Each year more and more people get FLOSS into their hands and know it works. They tell their friends and geometric growth occurs. Individual installers were a more linear affair as only a few had the inclination to install. OEMs are a different matter. They design the system to work with GNU/Linux or customize GNU/Linux and ship many thousands per day so the ordinary consumer has no problems using them. Even the retailers are seeing the slump in sales of “PCs”. They are anxious to find a product that people will buy. So. GNU/Linux is successful even if Clarence does not enjoy how it’s happening.

  7. Clarence Moon says:

    Many millions have turned to GNU/Linux as a result

    You are grasping at straws, Mr. Pogson. In the days since Microsoft introduced Windows as the expected PC operating environment, more than a billion people around the world have become daily Windows users whereas only a handful, less than one in a hundred, have made Linux their desktop choice. From a sales and marketing point of view, that is an abject failure on the part of the Linux promoters although you can continue to say that it is simply “nothing ventured, so nothing gained” as an excuse.

  8. zj wrote, “X needs to be taken out and shot before there is any talk of using Linux on the desktop. “

    Granted X does not serve a need on individual PCs usually but anyone using virtual machines to run stuff can make good use of it and it is a godsend in organizations with two or more PCs and terminal servers. It allows the most wonderful setups, like Largo, Florida where huge terminal servers have up to 400 users connecting. They do logins on one server and run different apps on different servers and it is all transparent to the user. The servers, being specialized and having all the application’s files cached are super fast and no one but the system administrator is aware of the shared utilization. Largo invests huge sums in their servers and gets huge performance as a result. The clients need no guts at all except perhaps to run a browser. X is the greatest thing since sliced bread among networks of computers with GUIs around.

    If you want better graphical performance for some reason you can get it on GNU/Linux by using other tools but for running many ordinary apps, X is fast enough for everything except full-screen video. 100 megabits/s is fast enough for many purposes and there’s still gigabit/s for particular needs.

    If you need faster graphics locally, you can use other drivers: http://directfb.org/index.php?path=Main%2FVideos&page=0&video=ilixi_compositor

    I don’t play games so I don’t need such things. YouTube is fine for me on X. Beast was up to 25% CPU utilization playing that video on X…

  9. ze_jerkface says:

    Linux if you hate the windows manager you can change it.

    But you still have to use X which turns anything on top of it to shit.

    Windows 8 sucks but somehow Linux still sucks even more.

    X needs to be taken out and shot before there is any talk of using Linux on the desktop. That will be when wayland is done which will be around 2070 when civilization collapses.

    Windows 7 is the next XP until Microsoft releases Windows 8 SP1 / Windows 9 / Non-Sinofsky Windows.

  10. JR says:

    @ Chris Weig
    You state that the “corrective instance” that will make Microsoft drop windows 8 will be bad sales.
    Now as money is not a factor in Linux surely the move to Mate and Cinnamon could be construed as a “corrective instance” where Linux is concerned or is it that money is the only deciding factor in the case of a “corrective instance”.

  11. Chris Weig wrote, “you don’t have this kind of leverage in FLOSS. You can publicly express your distaste about Unity or Gnome Shell, but most likely nothing will come from it.”

    Nonsense. A debate ensues. People learn from their mistakes. GNU/Linux allows choice. That’s why there exists several desktop environments. That’s why one can run any desktop application on any GNU/Linux system and use it over the network from any other GNU/Linux system. If people use PCs for the apps, people can access any app any way they like and it does not matter which window or display manager they use.

    Chris Weig wrote, “As for XFCE and LXDE: the resources devoted to those two desktop environments are considerably less”.

    That’s a feature, not a bug. I don’t want people futzing around with my desktop environment. It works. I point and click. What more do I want a desktop environment to do? Some people like “new”. Most people like something that works. GNU/Linux works for everyone.

  12. oiaohm says:

    Chris Weig also another point. All versions of Windows bar Windows 8 include the means to load your own windows manager environment.

    The code to use something other than Metro has been completely stripped from Windows 8.

    Linux if you hate the windows manager you can change it. OS X hate the windows manager you can change that too.

    Windows 7 backwards hate the windows manager use a third party.

    Windows 8 hate the windows manager only option don’t use Windows 8.

  13. Chris Weig says:

    @JR:

    Again, you should read more cautiously. I have stated that I don’t like Metro. Perhaps I should’ve stated explicitly that which was implied, that I don’t like Windows 8. Yes, I think as a desktop operating system it’s a failure when compared to Windows 7.

    And please tell me is Windows 8 not a new appraoch to a desktop environment and also possibly a bad idea.

    It is a bad idea. But Microsoft depends on the users’ money. Therefore there is a far greater chance that this ultimate corrective instance — to put it in concrete terms: bad sales — will be able to force Microsoft to rethink their approach. And my point was that you don’t have this kind of leverage in FLOSS. You can publicly express your distaste about Unity or Gnome Shell, but most likely nothing will come from it.

    As for XFCE and LXDE: the resources devoted to those two desktop environments are considerably less, if compared with Gnome, KDE, or even Unity. It’s, for example, a quite common opinion among Ubuntu users who switched to Xubuntu because they disliked Unity that XFCE lags behind Gnome 2. Yes, you can switch to other desktop environments. But they lack.

  14. JR says:

    @ Chris Weig
    Many thanks for your reply and for clarifying things for me.
    So if I take your definition of:
    “Super failures” then we can apply this criteria of needless reinventing of the wheel to Windows 8.
    “No Corrective instances” And please tell me is Windows 8 not a new appraoch to a desktop environment and also possibly a bad idea.
    And of course Microsoft always listen to their users.
    As far as XFCE is concerned from their website
    “Xfce is a lightweight desktop environment for UNIX-like operating systems.
    It aims to be fast and low on system resources, while still being visually appealing and user friendly.”
    so what exactly is your point ?
    As far as LXDE is concerned from their website
    “The “Lightweight X11 Desktop Environment” is an extremely fast-performing and energy-saving desktop environment”
    again what is your point.?

  15. oiaohm says:

    Chris Weig Windows 9 maybe what is Windows 8 is already set in stone. There is no true classic mode in Windows 8 and there will not be.

    “So if one of these mainstream applications bites the dust for whatever reason, it’s not unlikely that you are left with choices that are inferior and have to play catch-up.”

    There are two other close to mainstream options Evolution and Kontact.

    Both have been held back by poor ports to windows. Really both Evolution and Kontact are more feature complete than thunderbird when you compare to the competition outlook.

    Kontact does have another commercial behind it. http://wiki.kolab.org/Client_windows_kontact
    Kontact for windows is still a work in progress.

    The last build of Evolution for Windows is major-ally out of date and worse depend on X11 being installed on Windows. Maybe thunderbird pulling back might see this get some due care.

    I see the decline of thunderbird as maybe this will trigger libreoffice to take up the two competing storage systems akonadi and Evolution Data Server for email contacts and other PIM data. Both systems can realtime sync with each other.

    This is the thing can Thunderbird really compete against Kontact. Only advantage Thunderbird had is it runs on Windows and Kontact does not.

    Kontact by akonadi already integrates into one office suite that office suit also has had the problem of no port to Windows. Welcome to the world of interesting.

  16. Chris Weig says:

    I know you’re probably trolling Linux users here, but every review of Metro I’ve seen ranks it below Aero.

    There’s just one problem: I don’t like Metro.

    that would mean the windows users don’t even get a ‘mediocre’ offering unless the go to a 3rd party.

    That’s true in a sense. But Microsoft will change Windows 8 to the users’ liking, because they understand the language of money quite well.

    huh! that reminds me of another eco-system. one where if you don’t like some aspect of one, you can just go elsewhere.

    Yes, you can do that …

    I have ubuntu 12.04 on my netbook. I don’t like Unity because it’s too heavy, so I put XFCE on there.

    … but your example precisely proves the futility of this thinking, as XFCE still sucks balls in comparison with the old Gnome 2.

    Even in FLOSS there’s something like a mainstream “discourse”, and some applications just have considerably more resources allocated to them than other applications of the same category. So if one of these mainstream applications bites the dust for whatever reason, it’s not unlikely that you are left with choices that are inferior and have to play catch-up.

  17. Chris Weig says:

    Please define “super failures” and “no corrective instances” as it relates to Linux.

    “Super failures” was defined. This relates to the needless reinventing of the wheel in the case of Unity, Gnome, and KDE, so that your last remaining choices are desktop environments like XFCE or LXDE which are neither as functional nor as comparatively well-behaved as, for example, Gnome 2 was. Neither MATE nor Cinnamon can be considered a real solution.

    “No corrective instances” refers to the simple fact that the developers of said desktop environments are not required to answer to its users. It’s like Mark Shuttleworth once famously — or rather infamously — said: it’s a meritocracy. If you can’t code you shouldn’t expect to have a right to influence FLOSS development somehow. At least in the cases of Unity and Gnome 3 users aplenty have spoken about how these new approaches to desktop environments are very bad ideas. That didn’t hinder the developers to move forward with them. There are no corrective instances. That’s very much connected to Torvalds’ statement about egotism being a main source of motivation for FLOSS developers, meaning that FLOSS developers are perfectly free to not correct design failures or revise ideas or implement new ideas, if they don’t want, even if that’s for the worse of a project. And there are no corrective instances which could interfere in such a situation.

  18. Clarence Moon wrote, “your only effective answer to the market is to hope and pray that Microsoft will mess up badly enough that people will turn to Linux as an alternative?”

    M$ messed up the software badly enough to do that 20 years ago when they slapped a GUI on DOS. Many millions have turned to GNU/Linux as a result. Others are moving to GNU/Linux for many other reasons, too: cost, simplicity, local control, local employment, open standards, ease of maintenance, fewer re-re-reboots, less malware… Any or all of these is more than sufficient reason to run away from M$.

  19. oiaohm says:

    Clarence Moon
    “Also, aren’t you all kind of embarassed that your only effective answer to the market is to hope and pray that Microsoft will mess up badly enough that people will turn to Linux as an alternative? It does not ever work out that way, I can tell you, but you are not likely to listen.”

    Really I am expect them to turn to Android and OS X first. The gaff of Vista saw increased OS X sales There is history here. Question is how much percentage will MS lose.

    There are usage figures for XP Vista and Windows 7 in the CTP stage. Clarence Moon so the compare to history starts now.

    RTM date for Windows 8 is forecast for August. With final Release to end users October. There are formal Microsoft forecasts.

    A proxy a 2-3 month delay from RTM to user release is normal. Yes Clarence we are under 2 months to the RTM Max.

    Lead up compare starts now.

  20. Clarence Moon says:

    I don’t think that you have the correct time frame for Windows 7 in this regard. Windows 7 was RTM some 4 months before the retail introduction and corporate customers had access to it. I know that I installed it way before the stores had it on the shelves. Win 8 is just at CTP release still.

    Also, aren’t you all kind of embarassed that your only effective answer to the market is to hope and pray that Microsoft will mess up badly enough that people will turn to Linux as an alternative? It does not ever work out that way, I can tell you, but you are not likely to listen.

  21. JR wrote, “Please define “super failures” and “no corrective instances” as it relates to Linux.”

    Hehehe, I can define those:

    1. begging the question, and
    2. strawmen.

    They are techniques of the trolls to derail the conversation and to burden participants so they tune out. The trolls want to control the agenda to soothe their egos and to slavishly worship M$. In their warped reality conforming to the will of Big Brother M$ is the only way to survive. Their minds are not free to accept innovative solutions to real problems.

  22. kolter.online wrote, “why are you apologizing for 8?”

    Exactly… Chuckle.

  23. kolter.online says:

    Chris,
    “You say choice, and what you mean is: something mediocre, something a little less mediocre, and something even more mediocre.”

    I know you’re probably trolling Linux users here, but every review of Metro I’ve seen ranks it below Aero. that would mean the windows users don’t even get a ‘mediocre’ offering unless the go to a 3rd party.
    huh! that reminds me of another eco-system. one where if you don’t like some aspect of one, you can just go elsewhere.
    I have ubuntu 12.04 on my netbook. I don’t like Unity because it’s too heavy, so I put XFCE on there. I can’t call it mediocre if it’s fast and does everything I want (like have two windows open at once that I can switch between *glares at metro*).

    Ivan,
    your comment about 8 having bad share because it’s not released yet is pointless if the comparison to 7 was at the same phase of release. so why are you apologizing for 8?

  24. JR says:

    @ Chris Weig
    Please define “super failures” and “no corrective instances”
    as it relates to Linux.

  25. oiaohm says:

    Robert Pogson the thing is the number migrating is a question to predict the future. I don’t have enough data on what they are doing. I have enough data to see problem but not enough to know how they are responding to problem.

  26. oiaohm wrote, “have those users decided they are staying with Windows 7 or are they migrating else where.”

    It’s not an either/or answer. Some users will say “To Heck with this” and go elsewhere. Others will stick with what works well enough as long as they can. Either strategy probably reduces cost over jogging on the Wintel treadmill. Lots of users are sticking with XP until the bitter end because it’s the devil they know. I think those users would be much more comfortable with Debian GNU/Linux and XFCE4 than Vista, “7”, “8” … There’s very little reason to switch as long as the printers work if they can restrict the Internet to a whitelist at the firewall. A lot of printers have generic drivers for XP so, they can use a PostScript driver for an ancient printer with some newer printers indefinitely. I doubt HP is about to cast them adrift.

  27. oiaohm says:

    Ivan metrics on a upcoming OS from Microsoft due to the Beta period start 12 months before its release.

    Windows 8 has had the least number of beta users compared to when MS started open beta program. Microsoft started it with Windows XP.

    So the metrics are not looking good. The scary part is that number peaked 3 months ago and has been dropping since. Even the lead up to Vista number of test users was increase. So something here is wrong. Why is the number of windows 8 test users decrease have those users decided they are staying with Windows 7 or are they migrating else where.

  28. kozmcrae says:

    Ivan wrote:

    “It is simply amazing how low Windows 8 market share is when it hasn’t been released yet.”

    Yes, when compared to Windows 7’s market share before it was released.

  29. Ivan says:

    It is simply amazing how low Windows 8 market share is when it hasn’t been released yet.

  30. Chris Weig says:

    Fans are grim about Windows 8, not about Windows. Windows 9 will swiftly follow, if Windows 8 is not successful (enough). That’s, by the way, the difference between FLOSS and CSS. In the case of Windows 8 failing, Microsoft HAS to react because they want to sell stuff. And it’s no problem because in this case Windows 7 will still be supported after Windows 8 is gone.

    In the case of super-failures like, for example, Unity, Gnome Shell, KDE4, and to some extent even XFCE, nobody in the FLOSS world has to do a thing. There are no corrective instances, instead these bozos will continue down their path of sh*tting the “customer” in the face. You have no leverage about them. That’s apparently where choice comes in. But it does you no good, as you can only choose between pest and cholera. It’s the same with distributions. You say choice, and what you mean is: something mediocre, something a little less mediocre, and something even more mediocre.

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