M$ Sees the Writing on the Wall and Applies Rose-coloured Glasses

“Everything used to be desktops, now 60 per cent of PCs sold are laptops. Next year, tablets will outsell desktops," forecast Microsoft’s Antoine Leblond, head of its web services operation.”

Of course, they see “8” running those tablets, but that is wishful thinking. The ideas that PCs last only a few years, that PCs slow down with use and that every PC must have a licence from M$ are extinct species of thought in IT. Today, people want small cheap computers and Wintel cannot give them that. Wintel is all about charging excessively for technology which they got away with when they were a monopoly but that is ending. M$ can no longer dictate the paths of IT. There are many valid choices that people have been exercising in increasing millions over the last few years. People love Android/Linux, GNU/Linux, tablets, smart phones and thinclients and above all, ARM. In 2013, the important difference will not be “8” on ARM but */Linux on x86/amd64. The reality will be that the technology that people love on tablets will begin to replace the technology they hate on desktops and notebooks.

see Microsoft says tablets will trump PCs in 2013 • Reg Hardware.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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7 Responses to M$ Sees the Writing on the Wall and Applies Rose-coloured Glasses

  1. oiaohm says:

    Chris Weig
    “2.) If the iteration is so fast then the best idea will be to keep hardware and software tightly coupled. As with Android you’ll be probably able to install new software versions on your old device, but you’ll most likely be on your own, with the manufacturer saying: “Good luck!” If you want no problems, you simply buy a new device with the new software.”

    This is where the pressure to have mainframe solution comes from. So in your home network you don’t need to upgrade the devices software to use new software.

    You have to remember the home PC started with throw away devices per cycle.

    History is repeating Chris Weig. This time a new form of market with portable will happen.

    People forget the time 1970-1980 of the z80 machines. Where they were terminals for the mainframe. Small crappy non upgradeable connected to Mainframes. The mainframes being the only thing that really need to be upgradeable.

    History repeats each time producing a different outcome. Fall of the PC rise of the Android. Then were from there.

  2. Chris Weig says:

    The ideas that PCs last only a few years, that PCs slow down with use and that every PC must have a licence from M$ are extinct species of thought in IT. Today, people want small cheap computers and Wintel cannot give them that.

    This is too funny. Outrageously funny, in fact. Mr. Pogson, have you ever been outside? In the — you know — real world? Do you know why hardware manufacturers love “small cheap computers”? I’ll explain it to you.

    A traditional PC is a general purpose computer. And it’s precisely sold as such. Smartphones and tablets are not marketed this way. Oh, they are computers, all right. But manufacturers have discovered that these things are so much more. They are trendy objects, they are accessories, they are gadgets, they are toys. They are the perfect items to market in such a way that people buy new ones after a certain time. Add to that the fact that manufacturers are limiting these devices by not offering updates to older models, and you’ve got a perfect cash machine.

    Contrary to your claim, “small cheap computers” are poised to be sold at a much higher frequency than traditional PCs. And it’s already happening. We’re now at year five after the iPhone, and Apple has released five iPhones to this day. As most mobile contracts run 24 months, people who already bought the first iPhone will be now on their third. Nobody buys three computers within five years. A regular PC is kept at least for three years. But with these “small cheap computers” in the form of smartphones and tablets, people can be persuaded to justify upgrading more often, as these devices are much more than regular computers — and, at the same time, much less.

    It will be no different with “small cheap computers” which are intended to replace a traditional personal computer. So, something like a Raspberry Pi. There are two things to consider:

    1.) If computers of this sort are so cheap, then you can easily justify throwing away such a device after one year and buy a new one.

    2.) If the iteration is so fast then the best idea will be to keep hardware and software tightly coupled. As with Android you’ll be probably able to install new software versions on your old device, but you’ll most likely be on your own, with the manufacturer saying: “Good luck!” If you want no problems, you simply buy a new device with the new software.

    What we have here then is not a consumer victory, but a consumer loss. “Small cheap computers” will usher in the new age of the throw-away computer.

    Capitalism at its best.

  3. Clarence Moon says:

    Any good criminal plans ahead.

    I am sure that the cast of “criminal” stems from your prejudices and not from any ignorance of the law, as we have been over that a number of times. But, even so, just what do you think has actually changed? Do you really believe that people will eschew compatibility with their previous systems to make their PC work like their phone? I don’t believe that at all.

    If a phone app satisfies their needs, they would just use their phone, not purchase a work-alike ultra-book for such a tidy sum. If they buy a new portable, they will want it to work like their current PC, only maybe faster and/or with less weight. It will be a Windows PC either way.

  4. oiaohm says:

    Clarence Moon lot of what MS has now is left over of past illegal actions. Stealing the core to IE taking SMB protocol without legal permission todo so. Extending many other protocols in incompatible ways and not documenting.

    Samba 4 will undo one illegal action. Firefox, Chrome and other web browsers have managed to battle MS successfully. Even with illegal advantage to Microsoft Firefox was still able to put up a good fight.

    OpenOffice has been a disappointment. But with libreoffice that is looking up. MS gained Office market by underhanded. Got goverments around the world to agree to a common document format of RTF extend it without documentation or late documentation so competitors would not open documents well so become dominate Office suite. This is also cracking up in places.

    kernel.org complete disregard of desktop features for basically 18 years was also major pain.

    There are a set of tide shifts going on.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIuePTzyWL4
    Yes a Linux distrobutions wanting to be in your TV.

    The battle is no longer just for tablets. Tablets I see have a future as a house remote.

    Linux wants your house.

  5. Clarence Moon wrote, “I would not attribute everything that Microsoft has obtained in the past 30 years to luck.”

    Of course not. Any good criminal plans ahead.

  6. Clarence Moon says:

    that is wishful thinking

    Perhaps, Mr. Pogson, but they have been very successful with their thinking over the past few decades. I would not attribute everything that Microsoft has obtained in the past 30 years to luck.

  7. Mats Hagglund says:

    Although subsequently much would be made of failure of some Android tablets (when Android got 35% of tablets is called “failure”), this M$ talk about W8 surface tablets is simply hype and a species of boasting, akin to a man claiming he was in good shape because his head was still on his shoulders while his arms and legs had been cut off.

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