Cloud Momentum

While total uptake of cloud services is still a small percentage of the pie, it seems to be taking off with sustained growth forecast for years to come. Some predictions from Roundup of Cloud Computing Forecasts and Market Estimates, 2012:

  • By 2014, more than 50% of workloads will be processed in the cloud,
  • cloud computing market growth of 36%,
  • 1.25% of “on-site” enterprise computing will be replaced by cloud computing in 2012, and
  • by 2020, cloud computing could be a $240billion market with more than $10billion from the US government alone.

Let’s see. M$ is losing share on the desktop, going nowhere in mobile, so the cloud is its last hope for future relevance. IT is growing everywhere except in M$’s market. M$’s share of the pie is getting smaller no matter how it is counted. The only question is how small will it become? I think there will be a lot of client and server licences for them to sell for a long time but from now on they cannot dictate to this market. After this year the monopoly will certainly be dead.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
This entry was posted in technology. Bookmark the permalink.

6 Responses to Cloud Momentum

  1. aardvark wrote, “Dinosaurs were cold-blooded.”

    There were small dinosaurs that were cold-blooded no doubt but the big guys were alway above ambient temperature.“Through the first half of the 20th century, before birds were recognized to be dinosaurs, most of the scientific community believed dinosaurs were sluggish and cold-blooded. Most research conducted since the 1970s, however, has indicated that ancient dinosaurs, particularly the carnivorous groups, were active animals with elevated metabolisms and numerous adaptations for social interaction.” (Wikipedia)

  2. aardvark says:

    Mr Pogson:

    Would you care to consider alternatives to your clumsy metaphors?

    Dinosaurs were cold-blooded. I doubt that they’d be warm even three minutes after death.

    And if Ballmer et al could barely imagine the balloons — I assume the Web — would they even care about the pricking in the early 1990s?

    Of course, twenty years later, they might just have spent a little time catching up.

    I don’t see the pricking here, myself.

  3. Vista, 2011 with the huge uptake of Android/Linux and 2012 with huge uptake of cloud applications were all catastrophes for M$. The dinosaur cannot move rapidly to adapt to the changes. They are mired on the desktop client applications for the cloud stuff and that will not fly in the 21st century. “8” is obviously cripple-ware on ARM. Many hundreds of millions use non-M$ stuff on ARM and don’t see cripple-ware. Why should the OEMs, retailers and consumers accept limiting their freedom any longer? Even business is looking at small cheap computers connecting to servers. The balloon that Ballmer and buddies could only imagine in the early 1990s is about to be pricked. Unfortunately, the body heat will keep the dinosaur warm for a couple of years more.

  4. kozmcrae says:

    There is always the possibility of a catastrophic event. Some unforeseen element from far left field. It doesn’t have to be anything major. It could even be something seemingly insignificant at first but that would go viral. The Internet is unpredictable that way.

    Suddenly the wool is pulled off of Microsoft and the world sees the wolf plain as day. Like an iceberg the world flips and Microsoft is treated like the plague. I seriously doubt that will come to pass but it is a possibility no matter how remote.

  5. There will always be some segment of the market that believes they get a “special deal” from M$ or get better software because they pay more but it’s a lot less than 90%. If we put many of the Apple-fans in the “pay more” category, the share is 10-20%, I expect. In physics, there is a concept of “chaos”, that is things divide up evenly by the number of ways they can happen. If you can have an Apple, GNU/Linux, FreeBSD, or that other OS, then the share of each will be something like 1/N where N is the number of choices. That assumes M$ has no good salesmen and consumers are unfocussed. Given that those are untrue, M$’s share could be 30-50% eventually. The huge inertia of the installed-base and people will determine the rate of change but PC replacement lifetimes and XP’s end-of-life say the “eventually” is 3-5 years.

    M$ having salesmen is a huge advantage in the equilibrium position but as GNU/Linux and Android/Linux etc. take more share, the human inertia will be overcome and there may well be salesmen pushing GNU/Linux in sufficient numbers, sooner or later. M$ has only 90K employees and a lot more “partners” but the world is bigger. We are very close to the point where GNU/Linux will have share on retail shelves everywhere and salesmen will push units. That could happen by 2013 or sooner if “8” flops as loudly as Vista did.

  6. Kozmcrae says:

    Robert Pogson said:

    “The only question is how small will it become?”

    Maybe the question should be, how small will Microsoft’s market become until Microsoft changes its business approach from “you will pay us this for the privilege of paying yet more” to “?”.

    Sorry, I can’t divine how Microsoft will get businesses to pay for software that can’t hold its own in the modern world of cybersecurity once they understand they can get better software for free.

Leave a Reply