Gartner Believes the World Owes Wintel A Living

Gartner has predicted that 2012 will be another slow year for Wintel but 2013 will be better. They seem to feel ARM and */Linux will have no traction. The same forces that Gartner believes will give Wintel traction will also give */Linux on ARM greater traction. In fact there is nothing preventing */Linux from running on Intel/x86 systems…

So Gartner is predicting hope rather than reality will be a bright future for Wintel. “8” on ARM is the only hope M$ has left and there are already many players on the ARMed playing field delivering great products. M$ will be just another player.

Certainly there is no need for “8” on x86 or ARM and the world does not owe Wintel a living by buying stuff the world does not need: hair-drying, noisey, and expensive dust-collectors.

see PC market plods as smartphones, tablets take control

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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9 Responses to Gartner Believes the World Owes Wintel A Living

  1. Clarence Moon says:

    So, Wintel has not delivered the goods but has held the world back and committed highway robbery in the process.

    You are such a literal sort, Mr. Pogson. I will have to be more careful with my metaphors in the future.

    By “deliver the goods” I only meant the vernacular for “meeting customer expectations for product characteristics”. You can wax about how those expectations are too low, but they are what they are and Microsoft delivers what is expected. It is the ISO9000 conundrum/corollary, namely you may ship junk if you can demonstrate that it actually is junk and it was intended to ship junk. Then you are compliant.

    Now I do not really believe for a second that Windows is junk, but you should get the point anyway. Ask yourself what the consumer has seen through relatively non-technical eyes and you will surely see that they perceive Wintel as a long line of ever decreasing prices with ever increasing performance and satisfaction. In a world that perfect, no one is going to look very hard for an alternative. There are always many more pressing things to fix.

  2. Clarence Moon wrote, “the Wintel teams have delivered the goods over the years”.

    Nope:

    1. Malware“The United States is fighting a cyberwar today and we are losing.”
    2. Malware – CyberInsecurity – The Cost of Monopoly
    3. Ten things holding back tech – and half of them are Wintel
    4. Bill Gates messing with competition: “I have decided we should not publish these extensions. We should wait until we have a way to do a high level of integration that will be harder for the likes of Notes, WordPerfect to achieve, and which will give Office a real advantage.” He delayed releasing Lose ’95 just to mess with competition.
    5. Price – the licence for that other OS costs more than the hardware of some PCs and gives no advantage over FLOSS.

    So, Wintel has not delivered the goods but has held the world back and committed highway robbery in the process.

  3. Clarence Moon says:

    In the consumers I have known…

    Misfortune and disaster seem to dog your every step, Mr. Pogson! I am truly sorry that you seem to lead such a starcrossed existence in regard to Windows.

    But you ignore the gist of the matter. Wintel computers are a well entrenched concept in the minds of the consumers and those products, however the mix of profit taking by the various component and system suppliers involved, have a history of increasing function, richer user experience, and decreasing prices. Consumers do not delve into such details, they are only interested in the final product’s fitness for their purpose and the Wintel teams have delivered the goods over the years.

    You can’t argue with success.

  4. Clarence Moon wrote, while it makes Microsoft grey and long in the tooth before their time, it pretty much defines computing in most consumer’s minds.

    Chuckle… In the consumers I have known, malware, anti-malware, re-re-reboots, slowing down, endless upgrades, etc. define their experience with M$. I worked at one place that actually pulled the plug on the Internet so they could keep creating files and printing during one outbreak of malware. I worked at another place where the lady across the hall came into her room every morning, turned on her PC and went for coffee while it booted. The response time of her XP machine was about 5 minutes per click… She expected very little from M$’s OS.

  5. Clarence Moon wrote, PCs are morphing quite a bit already and are becoming much more compact, energy efficient, and inexpensive themselves.

    That is correct as far as hardware goes. Moore’s Law works. However M$ has taken an increasing share of the pie for the last decades. In the early 1990s they took $30 per PC for their OS. Machines cost $1500 in those days, so they were getting 2% of the cost to the consumer. Now machines cost $400 and they take $100+, 25% or more. Then there is their office suite…

    M$’s stuff may have been a bargain early on when systems were simple and not on the web but these days systems are very complex and the added complexity of that other OS and re-re-reboots, malware, anti-malware, management of applications, backup etc. all add to the burden of M$. The user of a modern GNU/Linux distro sees very few of those problems.

    Here’s a happy tale. Gummersbach, a small city, migrated 350 thick clients with XP to GNU/Linux and thin clients and are very happy. They have almost zero maintenance required on the clients. Compare that with the nightmare that many organizations have with that other OS messing up constantly. I was in a place with 80 XP machines and I could not keep up with the maintenance. After switching to Debian GNU/Linux on a mixture of thin and thick clients, my effort disappeared. We just got on with better service with less effort. The cost of the licences is trivial for people keeping that other OS going but it sticks out like a sore thumb for the people enjoying GNU/Linux.

  6. Clarence Moon says:

    I’m getting dodgy, myself. I clicked post before finishing the rant.

    The ending is that the future of Windows is pretty much the future of the PC itself. If that is being “owed a living”, then Microsoft is indeed going to be the recipient of that largess. PCs are morphing quite a bit already and are becoming much more compact, energy efficient, and inexpensive themselves.

  7. Clarence Moon says:

    Certainly there is no need for “8″ on x86 or ARM and the world does not owe Wintel a living by buying stuff the world does not need: hair-drying, noisey, and expensive dust-collectors.

    Do you see Windows 8 as a product distinct from Windows 7, Mr. Pogson? My mind set is along the lines that Windows 3x moved to Windows 95 as a major sort of change and then Windows 95/98/Me itself was killed in favor of Windows NT5 which was renamed Windows 2000. Since then we have had new releases for Windows XP, Vista, and 7. 8 is just a new version of 7 with the Metro gimmick to make it work more like a phone for phones and tablet use and for home users of “apps” versus “applications” (if you, too, see a subtle difference in those definitions).

    But the evolution of Windows is a single continuum that has carried their brand forward more or less, as one opines, for nearly 20 years. That’s a lot of history in the computer business and, while it makes Microsoft grey and long in the tooth before their time, it pretty much defines computing in most consumer’s minds.

  8. PythonProgrammer wrote, why does windows programs need \r\n instead of just \n. Its just the insane reality of windows software.

    Chuckle… Some are too young to remember typewriters. Some electrics were used as computer consoles back in the 1960s and 1970s. TypeTypeType…carriage return DING! The line feed was automated for a long time but I remember typewriters where you could disable the automatic advance of “the paper” over the rubber roller. IBM copied all that into EBCDIC I guess. It was in ASCII so it kept being used even if it was a useless waste of bits. I remember dumb terminals that could do a carriage return without going to a new line.

    That’s a really old fork in the trail.

  9. PythonProgrammer says:

    Correct. Microsofts future is dim in part because the younger generation grew up with windows failures and they purposefully avoid anything microsoft if they can. Also the windows on arm arguement is really a gimmick. Arm has no room for bloated software. With arm every cpu cycle counts, so windows with its extra cpu cycle for frivolous extra x86 instructions just because of their silly architecture will destroy the benefit of the arm paradigm. Also why does windows programs need \r\n instead of just \n. Its just the insane reality of windows software.

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