The Chinese Are Back

Now that New Year celebrations are over, we have some interesting new facts coming to light. The latest is that 531 million Chinese use the Internet. There are a lot that still do not but Of the Internet surfers, 391.77 million used broadband fixed-line access modes (xDSL, cable modem, fiber-optic and dedicated line) at home and 355.58 million used handsets for mobile access.

The high proportion of mobile access cannot be a good sign for M$ which is barely in that market. We know people are creatures of habit. Try changing the habits of 355 million of them.

Given the option of choosing multiple devices, respondents of the survey reported

Desktop

73.4%

Handset

69.3%

Notebook

46.8%

Unfortunately, multiple users use a device so we cannot calculate proportions of devices but this is a strong indication that some are using smartphones to access the web and not desktops/notebook. That’s not surprising since many love small cheap computers.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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22 Responses to The Chinese Are Back

  1. Clarence Moon says:

    It is hard to equate a tiny decline, which has happened before, as a “collapse”, Mr. Pogson. And, of course, that decline has already occrred and Microsoft’s overall revenues and profits increased significantly. Time will tell, eh?

  2. Flying Toaster says:

    Windows Division operating income decreased as a result of decreased revenue and higher sales and marketing expenses.

    Well, there are Windows Live and the economic downturn to take into account. But Pogson is obviously not someone who is good at maths.

    Now let’s see how he is going to spin about RedHat.

    What will happen to the other divisions when the client division collapses? People won’t need to buy so many CALs so the server division will shrink.

    To borrow your words, this really “shows your ignorance” “in the matter of IT”.

    Windows Server Division covers, and I quote, “Windows Azure, Microsoft SQL Server, SQL Azure, Visual Studio, Silverlight, System Center products, Biz Talk Server, Microsoft Consulting Services, Premier product support services, and other products and services”. Yep, SQL Server and SQL Azure. Let’s just hope the “collapse” of the “client” division is not going to make too large a hole in that RDBMS pocket.

  3. What will happen to the other divisions when the client division collapses? People won’t need to buy so many CALs so the server division will shrink. People won’t need M$’s office suite so the “business” division will also shrink. The client division is the keystone of M$’s monpolistic arch. Having it shrink weakens the whole structure.

  4. Clarence Moon says:

    It is “Windows and Windows Live” division and basically includes Windows 7 revenues. See a synopsis at http://biz.yahoo.com/e/110728/msft10-k.html

    Microsoft sez:

    “Windows Division revenue reflected relative performance in PC market segments. We estimate that sales of PCs to businesses grew approximately 11% this year and sales of PCs to consumers declined approximately 1%. The decline in consumer PC sales included an approximately 32% decline in the sales of netbooks. Taken together, the total PC market increased an estimated 2% to 4%. Revenue was negatively impacted by the effect of higher growth in emerging markets, where average selling prices are lower, relative to developed markets, and by lower recognition of previously deferred Windows XP revenue. Considering the impact of Windows 7 launch in the prior year, including $273 million of revenue recognized related to the Windows 7 Deferral, we estimate that Windows Division revenue was in line with the PC market.

    Windows Division operating income decreased as a result of decreased revenue and higher sales and marketing expenses. Sales and marketing expenses increased $224 million or 8% reflecting increased advertising of Windows and Windows Live.”

    But that is just a segment of the Microsoft business centered about Windows. Mr. Pogson is being fairly selective about where and when he fetches statistics. Overall, Microsoft sales are up some 12% year over year and bottom-line earnings per share are up a whopping 28%.

    To me, the health of the company lies in its overall operations effectiveness and the past shows operations to be continually increasing in spite of a poor worldwide economy. They are in business to make money and they are continuing to do that at an increasing pace.

  5. Flying Toaster wrote, “Maybe I am just ignorant but I never heard of a “client” division in Microsoft. Care to cite a source?”

    This shows the ignorance of FT in matters of IT. The client/server model of computing is well established. Client computers provide local computing and interaction with users. Server computers provide centralized computing, storage, backup etc. A network of any kind connects the clients and the servers. M$ has a client division and a server division as well as gaming and business/productivity software division.

  6. oiaohm says:

    Flying Toaster chkdsk from windows vista and 7 both can make the drive appear blank or folders disappeared if the defects are in the right places.

    With borked sectors on drive rule one is image drive. Because this can be borked controller. Running chkdsk repair you just destroyed the clients data if the controller happened to have a insane write process. Thank you for playing Flying Toaster now spending a few years in jail for client data destruction down here for that mistake.

    There is a correct way to do data recovery. The method you described is not it. ddrescue and equal is first stage so you have a image of the drive. You do this twice in fact. One for a backup of the damage drive. One for the copy you wish to attempt recovery on. So yes 3 drives required or a big enough storage to create 3.

    ntfsfix from ntfs-3g can be worth while before chkdsk. ntfsfix runs the journal to disk. Something ms chkdsk does not(flaw since NT 3.5 in fact that should have been fixed by now). Ntfsfix also flicks on the flag to make chkdsk scanning mandatory before it can mount.

    So yes Linux image drive. Linux ntfsfix. Then do the run chkdsk /r from the windows dvd/cd. This is the path of the least lost directories but is not zero risk. Anyone doing it without the Linux bit will lose more files than they should.

    Also ntfs-3g does have a brilliant usage. shake defrag for Linux works on ntfs-3g as well. This allows defragging of ntfs drives that windows says cannot be defragged.

    MS really need to do some critical repairs to there defrag system and chkdsk.

    Flying Toaster basically the Linux tools have there places in the recovery process. Use them right get better recovery results.

    Flying Toaster you are a argent prick who really does not know NTFS and it issues. The missing checksum stuff is what starts the process down the road to hell.

    Since items ntfsfix and chkdsk cannot tell at times what is damaged data and what is trust-able data due to no checksums. So instead of repairing the drive they destroy it. This is why not working on the master copy is so important.

    There is even something worse that can hit. It with the usage of virtual machines and images.

    Linux supports many filesystems xfs ext4….. We do have a rule we have to obey when we get to virtual machines. Drive storing the virtual machine image must be a different format to what is contained in the virtual machine image.

    Windows Fat and NTFS are you only two options. Only one that performs is NTFS. So now you are in trouble running virtual copies of Windows if you hyper-visor is windows running windows.

    Why is same format inside same format forbin. When you run a deep repair the worst issue that can happen is virtual machine image cross linked with the file system hosting it. This leads to some really screwed up filesystems.

    XFS is currently working on a new disk format to make this impossible. All Linux current filesystems are getting too long in the tooth for current usage requirements of virtual machines.

    NTFS has not even caught up to 10 year old Linux Filesystem features. ReFS I hope MS does bring in some of the new features to prevent some of these hyper bad issues.

    Remember Linux can hack it way around this issue. Like XFS for hypervisor EXT3 for guests. So avoiding the cross over from hell risk. XFS will bring the correct solution.

    What file-systems need todo have advanced that far NTFS is no longer suitable.

    Flying Toaster
    “Maybe I am just ignorant but I never heard of a “client” division in Microsoft. Care to cite a source?”
    Anyone who has read MS reports to the US stock-exchange has. Basically yes you are ignorant about time you go read the what MS submits to US stock-exchange from you favourite stock exchange interface.

  7. Flying Toaster says:

    For several quarters M$’s client division has had decreasing revenue.

    Maybe I am just ignorant but I never heard of a “client” division in Microsoft. Care to cite a source?

  8. Clarence Moon wrote, “Perhaps it will decline, but that really hasn’t happened yet. We have seen Microsoft’s revenues and profits rise year after year. “

    Not so. For several quarters M$’s client division has had decreasing revenue.

    Q4 2011 was down 6% from Q4 2010.
    Q3 2011 was up 2% from Q3 2010 but PCs shipped in that time were up 3.6% indicating loss of share.
    All of 2011 was down 2% from all of 2010.

    The first step in recovery from your addiction is admitting you have the problem.

  9. Clarence Moon says:

    “For some people that is true, but not for all”

    From a more practical point of view, all you can say is that there are some people who do not need or want a desktop computer. That has been the case for more than 30 years now and every year a few more percent of the people who do not have PCs decide that they now want or need or will tolerate having a PC. It is likely that there will be hundreds of millions of people on earth who will never buy a computer or even a cell phone, too.

    None of that really matters in the business of PCs. As long as someone buys a PC and there are huge numbers of those someones, the business will continue. Perhaps it will decline, but that really hasn’t happened yet. We have seen Microsoft’s revenues and profits rise year after year. They sell desktop OS, they sell server OS, they sell office automation applications, they sell game software and hardware, and they are in a raft of associated businesses. They do quite well and are not showing any sign of retiring soon.

  10. Flying Toaster says:

    For some people that is true, but not for all. Some people still do serious number-crunching or graphics that want a more powerful machine but I have seen a LAN-full of PCs with their CPUs all idling.

    Same thing happens to the servers that you’ll need to run thin clients. This is not to mention that you’ll need redundant servers instead of clients in order to prevent single-point failures and that all your servers will now need to satisfy the computational power formerly provided by the clients during peak usage. What you are proposing here is not a cost-saving strategy, but merely a cost-shifting one, and the numbers simply will never add up to what you claim.

  11. Yonah attributed to me, “a person doing their “computing” on a little smart phone is not going to want a desktop or laptop computer”.

    For some people that is true, but not for all. Some people still do serious number-crunching or graphics that want a more powerful machine but I have seen a LAN-full of PCs with their CPUs all idling. You don’t need a powerful machine for idling. You don’t even need all of one machine. That’s why thin clients and VDI and X11 are all being exploited to increase price/performance of the whole system.

    IDC (Japan):“In 2010, the client terminal virtualization rate was 13.5%. IDC estimates that it will reach 15.7% in 2011 and 37.0% in 2015. Meanwhile, in the Japan client virtualization software market, shipping licenses in 2010 grew by 31.0% year over year to 740,000 licenses. IDC estimates that the earthquake will limit year-over-year license growth in 2011 to 14.3% (840,000 licenses). A recovery is forecast in 2012, producing 75.8% year-over-year growth; for 2015, growth will be 17.8% year over year reaching 2.71 million licenses. The 2010–2015 CAGR is forecast to be 29.7%. The CAGR will be particularly high for desktop virtualization during this period, with an estimated compound annual growth rate of 63.5%. This market segment of the market is forecast to reach 1.13 million licenses in 2015, giving it a 41.8% share of client virtualization.”

    IDC: “Soon, more users will access the Web using mobile devices than using PCs, and it’s going to make the Internet a very different place.”

  12. Yonah says:

    “I see M$’s ecosystem as neck-deep water. You cannot do so much because of the EULA and the prices of everything and the malware and the lock-in.”

    Yet at your age you haven’t quite figured out that other people look at things differently. At dinner a friend of mine ordered fish soup complete with an entire fish floating, eyes and all, in the bowl. She thought it was the most delicious thing ever. I wanted to puke.

    Your presumption is that a person doing their “computing” on a little smart phone is not going to want a desktop or laptop computer. Bzzzzzzzzt! Wrong answer.

  13. Flying Toaster says:

    What do you do when you turn on your Windows (NTFS) loaded computer and it’s borked because, through no fault of your own, there’s a bunch of bad sectors on the hard drive? How do you recover from that?

    Complicated. You’ll need to get yourself a working computer, go to the Internet, shop around for some random “live” Linux distro, try and mount the broken drive with NTFS-3G, realize that the NTFS-3G module doesn’t come with the distro, grab another distro, watch as it plays up with your motherboard’s “fake” RAID controller, try some workaround, mount the broken drive with NTFS-3G, notice fsck.ntfs is not available for the distro, try another distro again, bork the file system in the process, curse the distro as you look for another one to fix the mess…

    Or, alternatively, you can try this.

  14. Kozmcrae says:

    “NTFS does far more than a file-system should.”

    What do you do when you turn on your Windows (NTFS) loaded computer and it’s borked because, through no fault of your own, there’s a bunch of bad sectors on the hard drive? How do you recover from that?

  15. Flying Toaster says:

    NTFS does far more than a file-system should. Many of these features are things that are better done elsewhere in the OS.

    I have already said that to oiaohm, and I am going to tell you the same thing – namely, show your working. I don’t care what your perception is about file systems in general. I only care about evidence that can be empirically validated. A list of features in NTFS from Wikipedia tells neither me nor the rest of your readers which particular features (that you theorize) are at fault or how or why. If you insist on weaseling your way out of this, then, to be brutally frank, I can simply no longer take that as honesty in your part.

  16. NTFS does far more than a file-system should. Many of these features are things that are better done elsewhere in the OS. It’s no problem for M$, they mostly use a single file-system but for the rest of the world it’s just bloat, lock-in and more bloat and M$ don’t care as much about security as some of us. Having unnecessary features in software is a huge target for malware. M$ mostly has them so they can persuade people to buy another licence because the product is “improved”.

  17. Flying Toaster says:

    And, by the way, Pog – have you come up with an answer as to what the “kitchen sink”, the “car” and the “boat” exactly are in NTFS?

  18. Flying Toaster says:

    There can be both many who love small cheap computers and many who love big expensive computers. (Italics mine)

    So how many is your “many”? One? Two? A sample of 500 million people out of a population of over 1 billion?

    I ain’t absolutely certain about this, but I do believe there is a way to describe such vague use of a word:

    http://www.skepdic.com/weaselwords.html

  19. I don’t claim to be a prophet, whatever they are. I have experienced IT in a lot of contexts from number crunching to control systems to educational systems. I can see lots of value in FLOSS the way it’s going and I see that other OS and M$’s “partners” as a dead weight. Of course it’s possible to move through neck-deep water but it’s much more efficient to move on dry and flat lands. I see M$’s ecosystem as neck-deep water. You cannot do so much because of the EULA and the prices of everything and the malware and the lock-in. You can do anything with FLOSS except be a partner of the monopoly.

    I have helped individuals and organizations get off the Wintel treadmill. GNU/Linux works for them. It works for me.

    If one of the most powerful businesses on the planet cannot sell Phoney “7” with all its advertising money and partners, M$’s software doesn’t even work for M$. When people have choice, they don’t choose to be locked in.

  20. Hanson says:

    “There are lots of Chinese.”

    That’s about the only right thing you’ve said since you started your blog.

    “We know people are creatures of habit.”

    No shit. And yet you regularly tell us that the Desktop will soon be in Linsucks’ hands. I’d say the habit of smartphone users is a lot easier to change. And Windows Phone share is expected to rise to about 15% till 2015. Windows Phone 8 will also get the NT kernel. I see good things in Microsoft’s future.

    Yours does look bleak, though. You simply don’t cut it as a prophet.

  21. There are lots of Chinese. There can be both many who love small cheap computers and many who love big expensive computers.

  22. Flying Toaster says:

    That’s not surprising since many love small cheap computers.

    This is to ignore the fact that iPhone 4s are extremely popular in China and their per unit price simply exceeds that of a low-end desktop computer, which, as I have pointed out, can be obtained for $500 with Windows installed.

    But I guess there is hardly anything wrong with trying to promote self-righteous moral values with weasel words, dishonest comparisons and bogus statements.

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