Geography of GNU/Linux

NetApplications used to restrict geographic reports of web stats to subscribers. Today they will let anyone have the information:

GNU/Linux share for the past month (counting only GNU/Linux, MacOS and that other OS)

Some of those numbers are pretty strange but there are a lot of populous countries with more than 1% share of hits going to GNU/Linux. It’s interesting that USA embargoes Cuba on lots of things but in the above list they are the highest users of GNU/Linux. Maybe they have more in common than they know.

UPDATE I guess they had a misconfiguration. Now they ask for authentication…

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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50 Responses to Geography of GNU/Linux

  1. oiaohm says:

    oldman remember its also like school uniforms.

    That people can afford to wear more expensive items to school does not make it right.

    Schools if everyone has the same teaching is simpler.

    Schools are a mix of rich and poor. Oldman your method punishes the poor students for being poor.

    Everyone in a school should have equal chance of being taught. This basically means they need equal access to tools.

    Find me an affordable device that is as strong as the OLPC. The case thickness used in OLPC to be shocking is only found in mil class devices.

    There is nothing in a store you can buy on the general market that is in the same class for case strength, screen strength…. Durability metrics on the OLPC are impressive.

    The screen itself in the OLPC is unique. Reason why it so readable under reflective is that it stops being colour and switches to black and white. You don’t find this in any other device.

    Wireless chip supports 802.11s with hardware assistance.

    Thief prevention integrated into the design of the OLPC. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitfrost So there is no point to mug a kid for his OLPC. Reason if you do it will be dead in thirty days anyhow. The device contains firmware based anti thief tech.

    What stops you 6-10 year old kid being mugged for the ipad or windows 7 laptop you decided to give them oldman??? Simple fact nothing. Now you have a kid in hospital unable todo their school work.

    “common denominator crap computing”. I somehow think not. If it was common denominator crap you should be able to go into store and by something equal. OLPC you cannot many areas it is unique hardware. Special built hardware exactly for the requirements.

    Classmate PC issue is that it has a thin case, Weak cpu and screen cannot be read in direct sunlight clearly. OLPC closest commercial competitor yes its mostly crap.

    For grades 1-7 you need a machine that is tough and will not get the kid mugged by older kids or adults.

    Unfortunately oldman your attitude gets kids hurt. We can give them better so you give them items that can be sold on the open market so they get mugged for having them.

    Grades 8-12/13 A kid is getting a bit of size and little more means to defend themselves. Anything that you can sell on ebay is not suitable for anyone in grades 1-7.

    Grades 1-7 have to be custom built hardware to the market. If it not you don’t care about child safety.

    Yes hardware based thief deterrent is mandatory. Custom and unique look also reduces odds that someone will steal one. Yes looks like a kids toy of the OLPC is intentional to reduce risk to kids with them.

    Maybe you are dealing with older group of kids oldman. And have forgot how small grade 1-7 people are and how much of a soft target they are.

    If you give grades 1-7 kids common denominator from the open market you are trying to hurt them. This really shows how little oldman considers problems before commenting.

    Custom design hardware is exactly what grades 1-7 need.

  2. oldman says:

    “oldman completely misses the practicality that the target group for the OLPC cannot afford anything else most likely and that the number one requirement is seats. Nothing else matters. ”

    I believe that I have conceded that Pog. Where we part the ways is in its use to people who can afford better.

  3. oldman wrote, “No amount of hand waving changes the reality that OLPC is least common denominator crap computing that is being foisted on the beggars that cant be choosers by people who then get off the hook for providing proper infrastructure, support and wnat have you.”

    oldman completely misses the practicality that the target group for the OLPC cannot afford anything else most likely and that the number one requirement is seats. Nothing else matters. Further, OLPC is a heavily designed system intended to be appropriate technology in the situation. That other OS on desktops and notebooks is not. Too heavy, too expensive, requiring too much energy and not being rugged enough. Just the ability to use the screen outdoors is sufficient a feature to recommend the OLPC in much of the world. I’ve met immigrants to Canada from third world countries and nothing oldman recommends is suitable. The number one concern of people in those places is survival and many realize education, even basic literacy is a strong rung in the ladder. IT that promotes that is priceless.

  4. oldman says:

    “Sorry oldman you have not been front lines for a while.”

    Frankly, I doubt that you have been either. Thats the bitch of the nym, you can’t prove anything that you have done. for all we know you are just making this up out of whole cloth.

    IMHO No amount of hand waving changes the reality that OLPC is least common denominator crap computing that is being foisted on the beggars that cant be choosers by people who then get off the hook for providing proper infrastructure, support and wnat have you.

    Its quite sad that anyone would think that this is something positive.

  5. oiaohm says:

    “That gets cured real quick by having their parents pay for repairs…”

    In fact it does not. You have to prove the kid did it with the parents. You end up with disgruntle parents on you hands because their angel would not do such a thing. It had to be some other child.

    Really what world are you living in. Real world schools with brats for sure. OLPC you don’t have the fights at all.

    Sorry the patent pays idea now means dealing with even more brats. Because a parent of a brat was normally a brat themselves. There is a easy way and a hard way. OLPC is the easy way.

    Sorry oldman you have not been front lines for a while.

  6. oldman says:

    “Windows 8 and Ipads both don’t fit the target audience. Both don’t address the brat factor. Yes I have seen kids who uses scissors to cut of keyboard and mouse off computers so they could claim the computers were damage so they did not have to had a assignment in on time.”

    That gets cured real quick by having their parents pay for repairs…

    Next!

  7. oldman says:

    “Remember Australia is a developed country. We are not talking penetration into some non developed country here.”

    Uh Huh.

  8. oiaohm says:

    oldman
    “Remember OLPC is designed for the beggars that can not be choosers. Remember that there is a lot of the world in which infrastructure IS available and support IS available. windows is designed for and created for those who can afford it.”
    The large schools world wide are in the beggars camp. Less than 5 percent of schools are in the chooses camp.

    So over 9.5 percent of the market is up for grabs. Really this is why the OLPC is getting so far and so fast here in Australia. Remember Australia is a developed country. We are not talking penetration into some non developed country here.

    Infrastructure costs. Prime job of a school is to teach. So the less they can spend on Infrastructure and the more they can spend on teaching the better the outcomes will be.

    Simple point oldman no matter how much you like it you are out of technical arguments against the OLPC. So now you anti-FOSS bias comes out.

    Another funny thing. Most of the closed source educational applications schools here in Australia turned out to be written in flash not windows.

    Oldman its not the applications. “repair factor” Kids will use any excuse to get out of doing homework or other things. Yes they will trade how to bust devices. Now when this means they will be staying back after class to repair it. They seam to lose the idea that busting the device is a good idea for some strange reason.

    Kid nature. OLPC addresses it. Those Windows 8 devices you are talking about don’t address kid nature. OLPC have a way lower damage rate. Kids will take care of them so they will not have to be repairing them.

    Windows 8 and Ipads both don’t fit the target audience. Both don’t address the brat factor. Yes I have seen kids who uses scissors to cut of keyboard and mouse off computers so they could claim the computers were damage so they did not have to had a assignment in on time.

    Brat nature is normally cured by high school.

  9. oldman wrote, “windows is designed for and created for those who can afford it.”

    Very few in the world can afford it, including malware, re-re-reboots, phoning home and slowing down. In the emerging markets a billion people more or less can now afford small cheap computers but not that other OS.

  10. oldman says:

    “þu stunge álærest þæs bearges forgrindet, ic anades ándaga ond tmendes þæs bearges.”

    You Bad, Bad man …. 😉

  11. oldman says:

    “Windows 8 tablet will be one of those items that becomes a growing stack of junk. Schools that have tried ipads and the like are looking to go OLPC on the repair factor.”

    But then again there is a good chance that they will have a far larger selection of teaching aids including ported FOSS teaching aids than the IMHO half a$$ed crap that is OLPC.

    Remember OLPC is designed for the beggars that can not be choosers. Remember that there is a lot of the world in which infrastructure IS available and support IS available. windows is designed for and created for those who can afford it.

  12. oiaohm says:

    Dr Loser
    “I believe this novel approach is called “WiFi,” oiaohm. It’s fairly recent, although computers featuring Windows have been able to deal with it seamlessly for about the last five years or so.

    Linux? Not so much.”

    No windows Wifi is designed around the idea of access point. Linux has mesh networking built into the network stack. Including to the means to management multi wifi cards in a device for better mesh networking. Simple fact windows network is central server designed. Remember students can transfer files to each other in the field directly with the OLPC or route through other OLPC units.

    “What’s wrong with a mobile phone, anyway?”

    Other than not being customised for the reason of training and not being repairable not much.

    Result of mobile phones is growing stack of non working junk at a faster rate than a OLPC.

    Windows 8 tablet will be one of those items that becomes a growing stack of junk. Schools that have tried ipads and the like are looking to go OLPC on the repair factor.

  13. Dr Loser wrote, “It was nice talking to you, but I’m afraid I have to leave at this point, because I have better things to do. Not very useful things: just better.”

    Oh, thank Goodness!

  14. Dr Loser says:

    @Robert:

    “Of course some people behave like monkeys and imitate what they see but many who can now afford IT have never seen it and certainly cannot afford doing it the old way. They will use IT they can afford and it will run */Linux and OEMs and retailers can still make a profit because M$ is cut out. There are billions more ordinary folks than foolish/rich folks. They may each have only a little money but it still adds up to an interesting sum for OEMs and retailers. That’s just the way things work. Where’s the money being made today in IT? Still mostly in developed markets but within two or three years most of the money in IT will be made in emerging markets. Look at the crazy growth of Lenovo compared to M$ if you care to: Lenovo +35%, M$ -11%. Lenovo is selling a lot of stuff to first-time buyers in China and other parts of the world. That’s the way things work. Monopoly only works for a few people and most are not interested in participating in monopoly.”

    Quoted because it encapsulates your dementia in a single shot.

    Couldn’t have done better myself!

    It was nice talking to you, but I’m afraid I have to leave at this point, because I have better things to do. Not very useful things: just better.

    As a bonus for “a reader of this site, who has provided [OLPC crap. What’s wrong with a mobile phone, anyway? Haven’t you noticed that they’re the big tech thing in Africa? Twit.] the following lead:”

    Here you go, Little Ancient Neddy. Translate the following for me:

    þu stunge álærest þæs bearges forgrindet, ic anades ándaga ond tmendes þæs bearges.

  15. Dr Loser says:

    @oiaohm:

    “By the way on-line and phone activation Microsoft uses is also incompatible with primary schools. It means you cannot go out in the playground be doing something and just repair machine on-site.

    I don’t see MS going to give schools a free unlimited licenses to Windows and other programs any time soon. This is what schools require.

    Microsoft just cannot meet the needs of primary schools.”

    Do you want to rephrase that, before I demolish it?

  16. Dr Loser says:

    @Mats Hagglund:

    Nice numbers. One site. 100,000 clicks.

    I work on Bing. Do you have any idea how many clicks we get every day? I don’t, but it’s several billion.

    Some of those clicks are, in a sense, worthless (not to the clicker, obviously). Some percentage is worthwhile.

    Your guesses are therefore good for a laugh, but thorougly worthless in statistical terms. Hell, you wouldn’t even meet the outliers from six sigmas.

  17. Mats Hagglund says:

    I strongly critisize those numbers. I’ve kept now more than a year a website with over 100 000 clicks and so far Linux has 10-20% more clicks than Mac. It’s social media oriented website, non-geek. However NetApplication is claiming that Mac has 3-4 times bigger marketshare in Finland. I’ve asked several others and they have had similar results: Mac and Linux are very even or Linux little bit bigger marketshare.

    My guess is that Linux got some 6-8% marketshare and Mac quite the same in Finland.

  18. Dr Loser says:

    @oiaohm:

    “The style of tech in OLPC is different to the windows model. So more mobile and more suitable for schools if teacher wants to go out side and remain network with the computers no problem.”

    I believe this novel approach is called “WiFi,” oiaohm. It’s fairly recent, although computers featuring Windows have been able to deal with it seamlessly for about the last five years or so.

    Linux? Not so much.

  19. oiaohm says:

    oldman Corner case that has an active use in class avoid the need for central servers. So removing a central fail point.

    The style of tech in OLPC is different to the windows model. So more mobile and more suitable for schools if teacher wants to go out side and remain network with the computers no problem.

  20. oldman says:

    “So I would not call them worthless. They might be a item that just might save your life.”

    Beggaring compute power to cover a corner case – Stupid.

  21. oiaohm says:

    Robert Pogson Australia’s Outback and Canada’s North. Is about the same. Other than the fact a lot of the areas are mining cities. Expensive cars tones of food not a computer store anywhere. Reason all computers people need for work are provided and maintained by the mining companies for there own staff to use for work only.

    Basically schools are on there own. OLPC set for a class room is quite affordable to ship. Due to a 50 set being able to be packaged into 1 box. So cutting down on freight costs.

    OLPC are cheaper to deploy than thinclients in new locations. No server or networking cable requirement those are quite expensive even worse if you are retro fitting. Power to charge 50 of them is one Australian 10A 240V power point all work from the exact same charging system. If you want to get creative you can of course opt for something like http://wiki.laptop.org/go/Cow_Power. This is using a very old power method normally revered for milling.

    At 100 dollar a unit the OLPC will basically rock. Power sources many.

    If a person start talking about needing infrastructure they don’t know the OLPC. OLPC are mesh networking. So they build there own wireless network that is highly resilient and fault tolerant. So yes a room with 50 OLPC computers in it is a networked room. Take the OLPC out the room might have no infrastructure other than a wall point for charging. This is shock at first that OLPC basically work as a floating wireless LAN.

    Built for need device. Windows is very much fitting round peg into square hole.

    There is another project the Serval project. This one might save your live one day.

    Designs the FOSS world is working on are if you dropped two of the devices on the moon would they still work. Now if you dropped 1 million plus would it still work. Yes true no infrastructure designs. This comes critical after major earth quakes and other disasters. Yes lot of Serval tech is finding its way embedded in the OLPCs.

    Infrastructure that is not carried by a human is not dependable after a disaster. Windows PC idea is worthless in a disaster too many mesh features are missing.

    Yes Infrastructure cost of running windows is one reason why schools should go OLPC and not have windows. Yes the OLPC in a emergency can be part of a emergency telecommunication grid. So I would not call them worthless. They might be a item that just might save your life.

  22. Dr Loser, asking for proof that M$ leads “journalist” around by the nose, wrote, “Since I am sure you have no evidence whatsoever that Microsoft does this (unless you count the rather pitiful goodie-bags that are occasionally scattered around the office, which contain pens and trinkets and the occasional fleece), perhaps you would care to provide me with a hot-line for such naughtiness?”

    M$ reluctantly published their playbook during certain legal matters:
    “There are three categories of industry influencers:
    Providers of evangelical infrastructure: The authors of technical books, courseware designers and instructors, authors of technical articles, conference organizers, software consultants and contract development houses – Evangelism needs to involve all of these folks at various stages of an evangelism campaign, to make sure that ISVs and individual developers have the information they need to (a) decide to support the technology, and to (b) implement the technology in their application.
    The Press: Almost every evangelism campaign involves working with the press, either directly or through a PR agency. Our evangelism plan should identify the specific members of the press that you will target for technical evangelism (as distinct from the usual, non-technical PR treatment).
    Analysts: Analysts are people who are paid to take a stand, while always trying to appear to be disinterested observers (since the appearance of independence maximizes the price they can charge for selling out). Treat them as you would treat nuclear weapons – as an important part of your arsenal, which you want to keep out of the hands of the enemy. Bribe Hire them to produce “studies” that “prove” that your technology is superior to the enemy’s, and that it is gaining momentum faster.

    see GROKLAW

  23. Clarence Moon, in a fit of envy, wrote, “When they do, they are going to spend like the people they are trying to emulate and will buy the same Mac Airbooks, ultrabooks, and such that the successful people have. That is just the way things work.”

    Of course some people behave like monkeys and imitate what they see but many who can now afford IT have never seen it and certainly cannot afford doing it the old way. They will use IT they can afford and it will run */Linux and OEMs and retailers can still make a profit because M$ is cut out. There are billions more ordinary folks than foolish/rich folks. They may each have only a little money but it still adds up to an interesting sum for OEMs and retailers. That’s just the way things work. Where’s the money being made today in IT? Still mostly in developed markets but within two or three years most of the money in IT will be made in emerging markets. Look at the crazy growth of Lenovo compared to M$ if you care to: Lenovo +35%, M$ -11%. Lenovo is selling a lot of stuff to first-time buyers in China and other parts of the world. That’s the way things work. Monopoly only works for a few people and most are not interested in participating in monopoly.

  24. Dr Loser, being out of touch with reality wrote, “Windows is saleable in the Outback. Word is saleable. Excel is saleable. Hell, anything on Windows is saleable.”.

    I have not been in Australia’s Outback but I have been in Canada’s North. I can tell you that other OS is not salable. There are few stores in the North and they do not carry that kind of equipment. They carry food, clothing and hardware mostly. Computers are almost always shipped in as freight or luggage at huge expense. I have been at places where freight is $5 per pound. Suitable IT does not come with that other OS. Suitable IT is a server or two, network components and thin clients. After you have paid for the freight on the hardware, there is no sense wasting money on licences paid to M$. It just adds to the cost and gives worse performance.

    The number one requirement for IT in the remote regions of the Earth is to get any IT at all in there. By spending less on licences you can get more IT anywhere. Further, by using thin clients you can get more IT for the same money. That other OS need not apply. That’s why M$ is so careful to donate software for governments and education to make sure the monopoly is supported. Unfortunately some governments and school systems still insist on paying M$ and provide inadequate IT for schools. Where I last worked, we could get 20 old PCs for the cost of freight and they included that other OS. It was still worth our while to install GNU/Linux because side by side tests showed the old PCs worked better with GNU/Linux by a large factor.

  25. Dr Loser wrote a lot of crap:
    “(1) It’s totally useless to poor kids in remote areas, and I don’t even care whether you are “Normal” or merely some sad-sack loser like an Aborigine.
    (2) It is useless precisely because the support is utterly lacking.
    (3) Even assuming that there’s a bright kid out there, and he or she doesn’t even have to be “Normal,” there is no possible way that this would help him or her to proceed to the next level of learning and/or a job.
    (4) Providing these kids with a Windows machine would be insignificantly more expensive and exponentially more useful.”

    Where I last worked, half the machines were not working because that other OS was messed up. The staff and students loved that GNU/Linux was faster and kept on working. The possible ways that using GNU/Linux in schools could help kids include:

    1. They can save a bundle on software over their lifetimes.
    2. They can actually learn to install an OS without breaking any law, take it home and install it there.
    3. They can be safer using the Internet and their PCs.
    4. They can get a headstart on professional training to administer GNU/Linux systems, which skill is in high demand.
    5. They can learn to solve problems by breaking them down and matching the parts to Free Software projects/packages.
    6. They can get better performance from any hardware that comes their way.

    This is what one teacher wrote about switching to GNU/Linux:
    “This is our first year with our new computer lab, and I am very pleased with how it is progressing. One of the most pleasing experiences I am having as a system administrator of a Linux-based lab is the actual ease of administration. Once I set something up in Linux, I rarely need to worry about it again. This was not the case with Windows. Last year we were constantly suffering from system crashes, frozen servers, strange bugs and the infamous “blue screen of death”. Needless to say, it was a frustrating situation for many students. While Linux is not bug-free, it has been a far more stable operating system for both our workstations and servers. Linux also has shown itself to be a much more versatile operating system to administer in a network environment. My job is more pleasurable thanks to our switch to Linux.”

    I can tell you it is frustrating that PCs don’t run. That’s the reason I tried GNU/Linux a decade ago. If that other OS had kept running, I probably would not have switched. Students need software that works for them. They need GNU/Linux.

  26. oiaohm says:

    By the way on-line and phone activation Microsoft uses is also incompatible with primary schools. It means you cannot go out in the playground be doing something and just repair machine on-site.

    I don’t see MS going to give schools a free unlimited licenses to Windows and other programs any time soon. This is what schools require.

    Microsoft just cannot meet the needs of primary schools.

  27. oiaohm says:

    Dr Loser
    “(1) It’s totally useless to poor kids in remote areas, and I don’t even care whether you are “Normal” or merely some sad-sack loser like an Aborigine.”
    No if you go around the map you find a private schools using them. Interesting the people you called losers just then. What the fact that rich people could be using this catches you out.
    “(2) It is useless precisely because the support is utterly lacking.”
    Again false. Support system is in place. This is what the http://www.laptop.org.au is. Provides online training to teachers in use of the item. Provides resources. Makes sure spare are supply able. Alters the software and books on the machines to match Australian primary school requirements.

    All the support structure are in place and do work. Everything is audited ready for use by the central project in each country. So the teachers can just use it. Workbooks written to the level of english each grade should have and all is provided. Everything a primary school needs is provided.

    Windows most of these resources don’t exist or are too expensive. Yes Windows is the one in this case that is completely lacking support.

    “(3) Even assuming that there’s a bright kid out there, and he or she doesn’t even have to be “Normal,” there is no possible way that this would help him or her to proceed to the next level of learning and/or a job.”
    This is where you are so badly wrong. Is there is a possibility that the bright kid would have never developed due to lack of Experiences to drive the development. People geniuses for two reasons. Birth and Experience. Broader the number of items they are exposed to the better they develop. Being able to have more items for the person to use with same budget equals better the closer the person IQ at the end will be to there DNA limit.

    “(4) Providing these kids with a Windows machine would be insignificantly more expensive and exponentially more useful.”
    This is complete incorrect. You define of insignificantly is off.

    The exposure to Linux then a different exposure to windows latter is the best outcome. Again its Experience the broader the person Experiences are the better they develop.

    Just exposed to Windows reduces the number of ways they have been shown to think about the problem. Yes the duel desktop of OLPC is an advantage. Sugar and gnome with a means to swap between them. Person learns there is more way to solve the problem so think broader.

    Windows was not designed for primary school education. Windows fails to provide what primary school education needs. Fast to repair machine that is dependable that is broad that does not lock a person into one way of doing things.

    Primary Schools should forget windows its not a suitable environment for that market. Yes losing 10 percent of the market because Windows is not suitable is not going to go down to well at Microsoft.

  28. Dr Loser says:

    @oiaohm:

    That’s the problem with Wall’O’Text: you are not supposed to say this.

    “Aboriginal settlement and Normal population areas.”

    Normal?

    Time for you to go back to the re-education classes, I think.

    Let me summarize, or, if you prefer, reprise.

    (1) It’s totally useless to poor kids in remote areas, and I don’t even care whether you are “Normal” or merely some sad-sack loser like an Aborigine.
    (2) It is useless precisely because the support is utterly lacking.
    (3) Even assuming that there’s a bright kid out there, and he or she doesn’t even have to be “Normal,” there is no possible way that this would help him or her to proceed to the next level of learning and/or a job.
    (4) Providing these kids with a Windows machine would be insignificantly more expensive and exponentially more useful.

    Look, mate, you live in this country. I merely spent a year there in 1988.

    Seems to me that I have a rather more clear view of the way the rural areas work than you do.

  29. oiaohm says:

    Clarence Moon and Dr Loser go look at the map.

    http://www.laptop.org.au/vision/progress

    The progress is almost all over Australia. This includes everyone. Aboriginal settlement and Normal population areas. Biggest problem is not demand but supply.

    No they are not “impoverished folk” alone. It all comes down to budget.

    Basically Linux winning could not possibly happen in Dr Losers and Clarence Moon. Note I said Primary school. Not High School. 7 years in Primary School does not prevent Kids learning windows the 5 years in high school.

    Do Primary Schools for what they have to teach require MS Windows and Microsoft products. Most likely not. This is world wide. Even so at end of primary school the OLPC could go into Highschool as like a textbook reader.

    Basically Dr Loser and Clarence Moon. Sit down and assess what a Primary school needs in a computers.

    Remember MS normally tweaks the interface every 5 years so the students have to go through a interface change anyhow.

    The desktop market is not just 1 market.

    Schools make a large block of IT hardware.

    Dr Loser
    “The infrastructure just isn’t there. Linux is never going to teach them anything — they’re in the wrong place for it.”
    This shows how bad MS people are. By there logic we might as well go burn down the schools because they have no hope. Some of our most famous people have came out of those rural areas. The 1 in a billion geniuses can appear anywhere. You don’t find them if you don’t give them a chance.

    Windows requires infrastructure in the form of IT. These OLPC have been designed particularly to operate with the min amount of infrastructure.

    Update usb stick contains a automated hardware diagnostic and OS reinstall. Right down to be able to have photo by photo guide instructions to take apart the machines to make one out of two. This was also design to be rugged that taking them apart and putting the back into one piece requires no fine motor skills. Because you cannot depend on having people with fine motor skills and those tech cost money.

    I like Dr Loser the Linux Machine are not going to teach. Sorry the reports are in. Areas with them are getting higher results in maths and english. So the schools with them are more likely to have the skilled to be able to read the manuals to use Windows who would not have been able to before.

    Yes the Microsoft only world is full of morons. Who cannot assess the requirements of the markets.

    Yes get primary schools world wide is 7-8 years of a person life. Person lifespan average globally is 67.2. 10 percent market share just control primary school. Forget the rest of the market. Yep 10 percent of most people computing live is primary school.

    Yes the case for Window in Primary schools don’t add up.

  30. Dr Loser says:

    @Clarence:

    “A whole lot of impoverished folk can fool around to their heart’s desire with OLPC or cheap tablets from China or old refurbished junk PCs or whatever you think gets them into the game, but, at the end of the day, they are still a bunch of impoverished folk who do not affect the world’s commerce.”

    I think that’s a rather unfortunate way of putting it, and let’s face it, it’s mean. There are more important things to consider here, like communities in the Outback. So, let’s consider them, in Robert’s time honoured wave a pseudo-mathematical hand in the wind way:

    (1) Not a single one of these kids is ever going to get a well-paid IT job in the local town through OLPC. You know why? Because they’re Aborigine kids in an Aboriginal settlement. The infrastructure just isn’t there. Linux is never going to teach them anything — they’re in the wrong place for it. Stick the kids with aptitude in a tech college in somewhere like … well, you’d have to go a long, long distance, and now we’re perilously close to the child abduction scandals of the 1950s, but say Dubbo (hard to believe, but there might be one) or Wagga Wagga (just as hard to believe) or Broken Hill (more likely, but fairly inaccessible from back of Bourke).

    Anyway, give them an opportunity to board at some such Tech institute, and they’d be able to learn.

    (2) Alternatively, if you’re just thinking basic IT skills (not programming and not sysadmin and so on), then you supply them with a Windows computer.

    Windows is saleable in the Outback. Word is saleable. Excel is saleable. Hell, anything on Windows is saleable. Tell an Aussie rancher that you want a job and you have mad l33t Linux skillz, and he’s going to laugh in your face even before he realises that you are an Aboriginal.

    It’s not really a practicable way to change the world, is it?

  31. Clarence Moon says:

    The problem with Mr. Pogson’s argument is that it seems to rely on Microsoft or Apple or whomever to get horribly bummed out and abandon the business if their monumental monopoly share declines to a a mere huge monopoly share. The world’s economy does not turn on a bunch of poor people saving money. It turns on a really big bunch of reasonably well off people spending like there was no tomorrow.

    Putting a lot of new people on the train in cramped cars or gondolas does nothing to diminish the fares collected from the first class passengers and may serve to entice some of the last class riders to work diligently to improve their lot in life. When they do, they are going to spend like the people they are trying to emulate and will buy the same Mac Airbooks, ultrabooks, and such that the successful people have. That is just the way things work.

  32. Dr Loser says:

    I believe it is now time for the second derivative of paranoia to kick in.

  33. Dr Loser says:

    @Robert:

    “I explain it by the plentiful gifts M$ bestows on so-called journalists.”

    Another fascinating glimpse into the secret world behind the IT green door, Robert.

    Since I am sure you have no evidence whatsoever that Microsoft does this (unless you count the rather pitiful goodie-bags that are occasionally scattered around the office, which contain pens and trinkets and the occasional fleece), perhaps you would care to provide me with a hot-line for such naughtiness?

    I have several journalist friends I can pass it on to. Win-win! They get the swag, and then print an expose on illegal Microsoft practices.

    And if they don’t, I get them drunk, they admit it, and I pass the information on to you. Then you get the exclusive for your blog!

    Win-win-win!

    Note that, if you do not trust me, you can always try the same thing with anybody else at all who knows a journalist.

    Good huntin’, my friend!

  34. Clarence Moon says:

    Mr. Oiaohm, tell someone who gives a hoot. I think you are making most of all that up, but even if it is true, it does not matter one whit. A whole lot of impoverished folk can fool around to their heart’s desire with OLPC or cheap tablets from China or old refurbished junk PCs or whatever you think gets them into the game, but, at the end of the day, they are still a bunch of impoverished folk who do not affect the world’s commerce.

    Do you really think that anyone cares about the OLPC project in Australia other than the losers who have nothing else to occupy their working days? The whole thing is just another shuck to keep people distracted from whomever currently has their hand in their pocket.

    If by some miracle, Linux struggles to a 10% level of use, it will still not matter and Linux will still be in last place. You are beating on a dead horse, Mr. Oiaohm, and, no matter how easy it is to do that, it is not worth your while.

  35. Dr Loser says:

    Oh, and if it is necessary to lie: well, total moral debasement in pursuit of a higher good is nothing new.

    So it doesn’t really matter whether Robert’s figures and conclusions make any sense whatsoever, as long as he is promoting GNU/Debian. (On a smart phone? ed.)

    The ends justify the means.

  36. Dr Loser says:

    @Clarence:

    “I think that they could affort to continue at that rate forever.”

    Ah, but you ignore the magic of the Pog-o-Matic Math-Droid at your peril!

    You are merely looking at a linear rate of increase in things like revenue, bottom line, profits, etc.

    The Pog-o-Matic (copyrighted, but not patented for obvious reasons) extrapolates through the well-known and universally-accepted compound rate (known to lesser mathematical brains like me as “exponential”).

    Based on your figures, and given that World GDP is only growing at 5% right now, Microsoft will be generating … well, let’s see …

    125% of World GDP by 2035 or so.

    I admit, it’s a long time to wait for That Other Armageddon. But exponentials is exponentials.

    We need to start now!

    Smack this virus in the chops before it makes all human economic effort on the planet impossible!

  37. oiaohm says:

    Clarence Moon the over 1 million OLPC shipped world wide in 12 months was not counted in the 160 million PC.

    This is the problem raw counts of OLPC sales put Linux at 1 percent of the market in shipping items.

    OLPC is a straight up displacement of PC class machines. Removes primary schools need to buy them. If you watch the 2010 part the most damaged part was keyboard. Still is. Change to tablet format was basically decide before tablets got cool to make keyboard simpler to replace since that was the one place a kid would damage.

    Yet you have the nerve to claim that Linux has not got somewhere. We are serous-ally looking at a possibility 10 percent of the market may end up owned by OLPC on hardware that is not Windows Certified and does not run windows. They have 1 percent now of shipments.

    OLPC is just in a lot of areas where its not counted.

    So 1 project will fully take Linux over 1 percent market share in desktop space. Yet we know china has there own internal equivalent that also produces Linux only machines. That is also not counted in the PC numbers produced world wide. That also displaces PC machines.

    So 3 to 5 percent of currently shipping machines for doing roles PC market numbers count being Linux is no stretch. With this being the raw unit numbers. We know the web counts are out.

    Also the numbers of units shipping is increasing.

    OLPC project was optimistic on how big the first orders would be. But there long term projections look like they are right. There short term was wrong.

    Note I am not counting android machines. The means to open up a Office suite of some form is a requirement. The Australian OLPC has some really interesting software as well. Sharepoint like collaboration done in a peer to peer way without central server.

    Guardian is not looking at the fact sections of the PC market is being displaced for good. OLPC is one of the reasons why the growth of PC market slowed up so fast. Yes the release of the OLPC from production lines up with the PC market stopping growing as fast.

    What is OLPC addressing thinking its core is basically standard Fedora. That a Linux needs to be configured or tweaked after install. On hardware designed for Linux. Linux just like Windows does not need to be tweaked at all. In fact the drivers for the OLPC is upstream even for the non released version. Yet most MS certified hardware you still have to install drivers.

    Linux + Linux designed hardware equal easy to install maintain computers. OLPC has proven this. Next is what section of the pc market should the Linux world design a project to go after next. Primary school education market seams to be worked out.

  38. Clarence Moon says:

    “I explain it by the plentiful gifts M$ bestows on so-called journalists…”

    You take the position that 160 million PCs per year, as you suggest the volume to be, are going unnoticed into the world due to Microsoft bribing journalists with gifts? Right after you say that I am “grasping at straws”? The irony coefficient in that is so high that you must recognize the fact!

    And yet, what of it all? I say that whether the PC OS market for Windows is $20B or $30B, Microsoft will continue to supply that market. It is fantastically profitable and nothing has changed that fact. You suggest that there is a huge resevoir of unsold opportunity for Microsoft, namelyh the 40 million units per quarter that you say are non-Microsoft, but how can you draw the conclusion that such a thing spells doom for MSFT?

    A more traditional marketing assessment would be that it is a good thing that Microsoft actually has room to grow into an unsold market. That is a better proposition, I think, than a market that was so completely saturated with Windows that Microsoft could not hope to capture any new business since they already have it all.

    I do not know where the actual truth lies, Mr. Pogson, but I am sure that there is no huge sea of Linux machines floating around unnoticed and unheralded by anyone but yourself. I did find a sort of analysis along the lines of your reasoning here:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/blog/2011/jul/12/microsoft-pc-sales-data-aalysis

    It is from last year, but it comes up with a figure of 75 million Windows PCs per quarter based on these Microsoft announcements. They suggest, as do you, that there is trouble in River City for Microsoft, but the Guardian at least terms it as trouble and not disaster.

  39. oiaohm says:

    Yes the 80 dollar per year was in the video Clarence Moon if you had watched the full thing your brain might have spotted the universal problem. Money there is not enough in education in lots of places to support Microsoft.

  40. oiaohm says:

    Clarence Moon
    “Take one of these Tinker Toys to downtown Australia and see how many laughs you get. That might put it into perspective for you.”
    Funny enough is they are not tinker toys. You don’t get laughter at all. You get people who want to take them home. Particularly when they see how simple they are to restore from OS disaster and how much they really can do. No tech require.

    http://www.laptop.org.au/vision/progress Nice deployment map.

    “Where do you get the idea that these sloppy dressed, unshaven blokes are going to lead the world anwhere?”
    He is doing quite well really progress map shows it. Maybe sloppy dressed and unshaven blokes is the perfect look for the market.

    There is a magic figure. 80 dollar per year per student. Yes that is the total figure you have to spend on computer + software + any extra hardware. Clarence Moon

    100 dollar unit 2 years for budget to cover it with left overs for extras.

    The progress so far has been done with 380 dollar level device. Or 5 years payback. So the device has to last 5 years. Full windows computer for 380 new? I think not. 7000 units deployed at 380 dollar price range. Include lots of schools at one laptop per child. Will that windows computer be designed to take abuse kids put up to a computer. Most likely not.

    Robert Pogson most of those laptops have no direct internet connection at all. The teach download the update image places on a USB key and inserts into devices to update. So one internet connection per school. No NAT or anything hiding. A pure hidden because they are not on the web.

    Even better for teachers the devices are showing a boost in grades. Yes 50 dollars is basically over half the yearly budget they have to spend on IT for the student.

    Yes 80 dollar pure year is a down right hard budget. Also remember those rural schools don’t have simple to get spare parts either. We look at a 100 dollar hard-drive and think fine. These rural schools that a years budget for a student blown without shipping costs.

    Yes you can see the lot of pre orders on the map as well. Shocking right 100 dollar device + extras at the end of schooling the student could be allowed keep. Reason the IT funding will allow the next lot of students in to get there own new hardware.

    Governments have budget limits. Ours is 80 dollars per student per year. Anything more and the students have to share resources or miss out. Primary school that this covers is 7 years. $560 min if 1 year extra prep for school $640.

    Yes $640 is all you have for 8 years in IT budget. Clarence Moon remember a lot of these areas is that poor the people in there cannot chip in.

    Open Laptop Per Child. You will be able to afford to update the student device in there time in school quite a few times if they are destructive to devices.

    You will have the money for robot motors and other devices.

    Is this not shocking for a developed country. That its PC’s the students normally cannot keep even at times cannot take home also this is with limited extras vs One laptop per child stuff and the child can get basic robotic parts and many other electronic items. For the same money. This gives the child far better eduction with broader experiences than what a PC would have given them.

    Clarence Moon you are right is all about the money. Microsoft is just way to expensive.

    Gets worse of course. 80 dollars per year you have to find the money to pay tech support on the device. So it better not need any if its a PC.

    Yes there is OLPC certification for teachers. This is that teachers have enough skill to diagnose the device on site and repair and possible repair any hardware fault they have on site. Sending device from some of those remote locations to a tech is not possible in a satisfactory time.

  41. Clarence Moon, in a fit of irrationality, wrote, “Revenues depend on price realization much more than volume”.

    Uh, no. Revenue is exactly price X volume with each factor having equal weight. Of course, one can reduce price to raise volume to an extent and there may be an optimal price but I expect M$ knows that but has been unable to prevent the revenue from falling nevertheless.

    Clarence Moon, clutching at straws, wrote, “Explain, if you can, why the trade press does not comment on the vast number of non-Windows PCs that you see as being produced today.”

    I explain it by the plentiful gifts M$ bestows on so-called journalists. Also there is the effect of the frog in a pot of water heating. The changes have been so gradual that they did not notice. Also, M$ is not reporting units shipped (licences) in detail to allow the myth of invincibility to continue. Publishing the numbers would accelerate their demise. Fortunately they occasionally boast about licences sold so we get some information apart from financial reports. As I have written, those numbers are about 50 million per quarter. They are not selling XP any longer, nor Vista, so it’s all on “7”. Clearly, nearly half their users find insufficient cost/benefit advantage going to “7” or they would have migrated long ago. “7” may indeed be the last widely used OS from M$.

    XP peaked at around 95%. Vista barely made it to 25%. “7” is doing a little better, but, considering its “perfection” 35% is a rather poor showing. With installed base around 75% and falling, subsequent releases will be lucky to do any better.

  42. JohnMc says:

    “Explain, if you can, why the trade press does not comment on the vast number of non-Windows PCs that you see as being produced today.” — Moon

    For the simple fact that the trade press depends on the ad revenue of the companies that they cover. Do you see many adverts for Red Hat? No. Since RH does not need to advertise heavily for its services, the press is not beholden to cover the company.

    My question to you would be. That Microsoft with its near monopoly of the desktop space still feels the need to advertise its products in that space. Why is that? That runs counter to the profit motive of companies in a monopoly position.

  43. Clarence Moon says:

    “If they were shipping on nearly every PC, their revenue would have been +few%”

    Revenues depend on price realization much more than volume, Mr. Pogson. Your model seems to ignore this rather significant element in commerce. Explain, if you can, why the trade press does not comment on the vast number of non-Windows PCs that you see as being produced today.

  44. oiaohm, thanks for the link to the video. I have posted it.

    oiaohm wrote, “most of that 1.3 percent would not show up in a web study due to limited internet usage.”

    I would add that NATing may also hide bunches of PCs on a LAN. These gadgets probably show up as a few IP addresses with identical User-Agent strings.

  45. Clarence Moon wrote, “Well, what effect has it had on Microsoft’s revenues, Mr. Pogson?”

    For the client division, -6% in revenue and -11% in income.

    Clarence Moon wrote, “If, as is said, the “average” cost of a Windows license to an OEM is $50 and Microsoft makes 80% or more of their Windows revenue from OEMs, what does that say about the unit volume needed to aggregate some $20B per year in revenues? Just about every one of those 360 million PCs, I think.”

    If they were shipping on nearly every PC, their revenue would have been +few%.

    If they were shipping on nearly every PC, their installed base would not be dropping as indicated by web stats.

    They have been propping up client division revenue with unearned XP revenue. That’s now drying up.

  46. Clarence Moon says:

    “Watch this video then say Linux does not stand a chance”

    OK, I watched some of it, enough to tell me that Linux does not stand a chance. Where do you get the idea that these sloppy dressed, unshaven blokes are going to lead the world anwhere? The 300K units that OLPC hopes to distribute seem to be non-existent at the moment as well. Note the tag line:

    “What’s more, we plan to achieve this by 2014.”

    Take one of these Tinker Toys to downtown Australia and see how many laughs you get. That might put it into perspective for you.

  47. Clarence Moon says:

    “How long do you think M$ can afford to keep winning like that?”

    Well, what effect has it had on Microsoft’s revenues, Mr. Pogson? In 2009 MSFT had total sales of $58B and bottom line profits of $14B. In 2011 MSFT had total sales of $70B and profits of $21B. I am a poor engineering graduate and do not have an MBA degree, but I think that they could affort to continue at that rate forever.

    Of course I continue to question your figures and it is fairly obvious that your accounting of Microsoft licenses is in error. You derive them from Microsoft press releases regarding the sales of Windows licenses, but you ignore the many other ways that Windows ends up on one’s PC. If, as is said, the “average” cost of a Windows license to an OEM is $50 and Microsoft makes 80% or more of their Windows revenue from OEMs, what does that say about the unit volume needed to aggregate some $20B per year in revenues? Just about every one of those 360 million PCs, I think.

    An accounting for the money is a public disclosure required by law and looked at with “many eyes” in the financial world. I suggest that it is more reliable than taking some assumptions from a press release and comparing it to some number from an entirely different source. All sources seem to agree on the idea that Windows is on virtually every PC shipped that does not have an Apple logo. No source talks of the oceans of non-Windows PCs shipping that you believe exist.

  48. oiaohm says:

    Clarence Moon
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWji2O3p-9s&feature=plcp&context=C3862287UDOEgsToPDskKUqtvPz8qPHBKPTAXrlKdh
    Watch this video then say Linux does not stand a chance.

    You are talking 300 000 units under one project just here in Australia. This is the population of Australia 22,328,800 . Yep. 1.3+ percent of the population of Australia has access to Linux devices and is using them. Please note we are only talking 1 project. We not counting company usage here. This is a direct physical count. The project is only a few years old in Australia.

    Gets better most of that 1.3 percent would not show up in a web study due to limited internet usage.

    At the core of that is fedora. The solution is being everything that is asked of it. Including basic robotics. When the devices get cheaper and more power effective they will deploy more.

    I would not be surprised if this project alone makes makes it to 10 percent market contact in Australia in a few years.

    To work in the school market the OS has to behave itself perfectly.

    Yes this is the next generation of devices built for Linux running Linux. Raspberry PI joins in with this kind of stuff.

    I do like the 10 to 1 with hand crank of the new arm version. 1 min winding 10 mins using. Hook that up to a old pedal radio generator and you would be able to run quite a few from one generator powered by 1 human even be charging them. So the humans could take turns being the power source.

    Microsoft in the areas where this 300 000 is. Is what Microsoft. It is too expensive.

    For Australia Market share of Linux is 100 percent sure above 1 percent. Could be 3 to 5. No problems.

    Yet web numbers don’t show that.

  49. Wikimedia stats:
    That other OS –
    2009 – 04 89.5% (Yahoo for the fanbois)
    2011 – 12 74.2% (BooHoo for the fanbois)

    That would only be success if Ballmer planned that…
    Linux –
    2009 – 04 1.49%
    2011 – 12 4.44% (Yay! for the fanbois)

    So that other OS lost 17% of its share while GNU/Linux had 200% gain… How long do you think M$ can afford to keep winning like that? Better, the rate of loss will increase because “7” is only selling 50 million licences per quarter while 90 million x86 PCs are shipped and 100 million smart thingies are shipped.

  50. Clarence Moon says:

    Windows has been an enduring success and Linux has been a consistent failure in terms of winning a share of the PC desktop for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that Microsoft essentially started in first place (after things like the Apple II and TRS-80 and other early, early offerings were put to bed). Being the leader conveys some distinct advantages in terms of defending one’s position from the rest of the pack.

    Microsoft is such a far away and gone leader that sometimes the Linux folk forget that they are even in a race, having never been within shouting distance of the second last place runner much less the leader. So the difference between 0.5% share and 1% share is heralded as a 100% gain and a certain sign that the end is near for Redmond.

    Trying to eke out some evidence that Microsoft is crashing and burning by sifting through the artifacts of people’s internet usage is not very compelling, Mr. Pogson. Rather you need to focus on what Microsoft does in terms of it being a business, which is how everyone else views it who has any use for the information.

    Is the business profitable now and for the foreseeable future? Heaven’s yes! Would it still be a highly desirable business if it were to lose some of its market share? Heaven’s yes! It generates billions of dollars in profits annually.

    How many people can devote themselves to the operation of a company that can do that? People have purchased half as many tablets, you say, and twice as many smart phones as they have purchased PCs in the past year, and yet the profits from Microsoft’s operations hold steady and have actually increased in most periods.

    Android has been successful as a technology accepted by the paying public in the phone business and has a chance at success in the tablet business, so why not keep cheering them on and basking in the glow of its success regardless of your level of participation? Continually carping about Microsoft and complaining that they do not deserve their success makes you look like a crank and is not going to move the numbers in your direction.

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