About a year ago, Gartner made a presentation outlining the status of software as a service and the status of “Open Source Software”. Generally, there were good and promising findings for FLOSS in a survey of 547 IT professionals. Key findings, for my purposes:
a large proportion already use FLOSS as a desktop OS: 60% use it either as a building block for new rollouts, a replacement for that other OS or as an alternative.
businesses currently use GNU/Linux desktops for “data-entry” seats and Gartner saw GNU/Linux as being used on mainstream business desktops within 2-5 years.
A few months later, Gartner reports:
- Gartner’s latest PC OS forecast shows 94 percent of new PCs will be shipped with Windows 7 in 2011.
- “Gartner’s forecast assumes that Windows 7 is likely to be the last version of Microsoft OS that gets deployed to everybody through big corporatewide migration. In the future, many organizations will also use alternative client computing architectures for standard PCs with Windows OS, and move toward virtualization and cloud computing in the next five years.”
- “Linux OS is expected to remain niche over the next five years with its share below 2 percent because of the remaining high costs of application migration from Windows to Linux. In the consumer market, Linux will be run on less than 1 percent of PCs, as Linux’s success with mini-notebooks was short-lived and few mini-notebooks are preloaded with it today.”
- “Gartner estimates that only in 2012 will the market reach the point of crossover between Windows-specific and OS-agnostic applications for enterprises, as 50 percent of the applications will be OS-agnostic. In the consumer space, Gartner believes that the proportion of OS-agnostic applications is already above the Windows-specific applications. This could help Chrome OS and Android make inroads into the consumer space in the next three to five years.”
Methinks Gartner is conflicted about reality. They cannot both have GNU/Linux growing rapidly and 94% of PCs shipping “7”… They cannot both have GNU/Linux remaining “niche” when there are no barriers to adoption left.
The facts indicated by web logs are that “7” is still very close to XP in adoption
Breakdown per OS version, non mobile
Windows NT 6.1 1,427,480 34.18%
Windows NT 5.1 1,353,162 32.41%
and it’s shipping on only 50million PCs a quarter, not 94%, but 55%. They should look at their own surveys and independent statistics rather than M$’s pronouncements by salespersons.