High Noon – Android/Linux v “8” on ARM in 2012

Digitimes reports that with less than a year to go before the release of “8”, ASUS is still thinking about whether or not it will deploy “8” on any ARMed tablets. They’ve already decided x86 is too expensive and are concerned about the high price of licences for that other OS. Chuckle. M$ still does not have its ducks in a row and cannot sell vapour-ware any longer. How the mighty art fallen.

see Asustek going Android, Acer eyeing Windows 8 for tablet PC market

Is a monopoly any longer a monopoly when OEMs have a choice? Nope. Free Software trumps non-free when it comes to small cheap computers. ARM is not going away and in 2012 every consumer on the planet will have a chance to own an ARMed PC. By 2013 the competition to sell ARMed PCs will swamp the x86 shipments and Wintel will be out in the cold looking in at the warmth of the fire.

Production of ARMed personal computers in 2011 exceeded x86 and in 2012 will come to dominate most segments with ARM even making inroads in servers. Supplying the demand will be a major problem in 2012. Manufacturers can ramp up production rates faster than x86 ever could because small cheap computers are small and cheap. It takes less material and space to make them. By the end of 2012 every building in China with floorspace will be used to produce ARMed personal computers and ARMed small desktop boxes and netbooks will become commonplace. China is wide awake and more or less vertically integrated in IT. They are producing their own CPUs based on ARM and MIPS and can design and build anything. They love FLOSS because it gives them instant access/reduced development time for everything. That other OS and x86 just holds them back and they are tired of that.

At some point M$ will release “8” and be ignored. People know what they want and know they have a choice. The genie cannot be put back in the bottle.

My money is on FLOSS on ARM to win the shootout in 2012.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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18 Responses to High Noon – Android/Linux v “8” on ARM in 2012

  1. oldman says:

    “What you say doesn’t matter @ldman.”

    Of course it doesnt Mr. K.

    Now run along back to mommy’s basement, the adults are talking.

  2. Kozmcrae says:

    “And those who are buying desktops and portables with windows on them to run windows applications?”

    What you say doesn’t matter @ldman. Just keep on with that desktop. Hang on tight, yeah that’s right. You got it.

  3. oldman says:

    “Says the people who aren’t buying WP7.”

    And those who are buying desktops and portables with windows on them to run windows applications?

  4. Kozmcrae says:

    “The world is tired of that other OS and all the machinations of M$ that go along with it.”

    “Says who Pog?”

    Says the people who aren’t buying WP7.

  5. Clarence Moon says:

    Well, if it were 10:1 and the population of Linux is less than 10 : 1, then the incidences would reflect a higher percentage of problems with Linux as with Windows. You have to be more precise.

    Even then, it is plausible that the rare people who use desktop Linux are doing so with a lot more knowledge of what they are about than the many who know nothing more than the location of the power switch on the Windows computer. The former category of Linux adept folk may never think to search for aa broad search term as you suggest, since they are more likely to make a focused search. I suspect that a large percentage of Windows users do not even recognize the term “boot”.

  6. We know there are millions of people using GNU/Linux on a wide variety of equipment. It is significant that they have very few problems. Even if you consider the ratio as 10:1 or 100:1, GNU/Linux has far fewer problems. I know. I have rolled out GNU/Linux to users of that other OS many times. Their problems were fewer. My problems were fewer.

  7. Clarence Moon says:

    “for “will not boot Linux” the score was 0”

    Perhaps there are so few people who boot Linux overall that they do not register on scales designed to show Windows boot activity? You have to look at this logically, you know.

  8. Clarence Moon says:

    “When was the last time you heard any OEM was taking a hard look at using one of M$’s OS?”

    Every time that there was a successful device being sold that did PC stuff that wasn’t Windows based, Mr. Pogson. It happens all the time. There was no Windows tablet not too long ago, but now Acer is making one and ASUS, from your own cite, is said to be considering following suit:

    “As for Windows 8 model, due to Wintel platform’s high cost, Asustek is more willing to develop product based on Windows on ARM (WoA) platform, but since Microsoft is also expected to take a tough stance on reducing its license fee, Asustek is still in the middle of evaluating a Windows 8 tablet PC.”

    Isn’t that the way it was with netbooks back in 2008? Consumers are fickle. You just never know which way the wind is going to shift.

  9. NT JERKFACE says:

    Ubuntu crash 1
    Windows Server crash 0

    Black death 1
    H1N1 1

    Based on Google trends I conclude that Black Death is just as much of a problem has H1N1.

    Of course it is obvious that Ubuntu sucks, no irrational metric needed.

  10. The world keeps having problems getting windows to boot. see Google trends: Score for “will not boot windows” in 2011 was 1.0 while for “will not boot Linux” the score was 0. Same for “crashed”. Performance. People have been complaining about the performance of that other OS for decades. I rarely hear that about GNU/Linux. Same about malware, phoning home, re-re-reboots… The main reason that other OS lacks performance is because M$ has spent years messing with the competition and much less effort on making good code.

  11. oiaohm says:

    Microsoft and multi arch has been a fairly bad combination.

    IA-32, x86-64, Alpha, MIPS, PowerPC, ARM and Itanium.

    Are all the cpu types Windows NT line has supported.

    Back in the day Alpha, MIPS and PowerPC versions of Windows NT pretty well suxed due to a complete lack of applications. PowerPC version of the NT kernel is doing alright in xbox 360.

    As you like to say oldman it is about the applications. That is the serous question is Windows 8 on Arm going to be like all the past non X86 Windows in existence insanely staved of applications making any Linux distribution look good for you means to get stuff done???

    Basically if windows 8 arm version takes off it will be the second in a long list of failures to allow a different CPU type that worked. Yes second being kind classing xbox 360 as a success.

    Application development does not turn on a dime its going to take a while after arm devices are out there before applications really start flowing.

    MS was hoping by this point that application development would be all .net based. Part of the problem is a lot of .net based still depend on x86 only third partly libraries as well.

    Things are going wrong for MS plans the questions is how bad will the fall out be.

  12. oldman says:

    “The world is tired of that other OS and all the machinations of M$ that go along with it.”

    Says who Pog?

  13. Clarence Moon wrote, “ASUS is taking a hard look at doing the same.”

    When was the last time you heard any OEM was taking a hard look at using one of M$’s OS? It used to be standard operating procedure to take the next step on the treadmill. Then came Vista, followed by Vista debugged, ultimate, super-duper, pro. The world is tired of that other OS and all the machinations of M$ that go along with it.

  14. Clarence Moon says:

    Never say die, eh, Mr. Pogson? Your cite says that Acer has picked Windows 8 and ASUS is taking a hard look at doing the same. Yet you tout the impending doom of Microsoft? What sort of logic are you using here?

    “Apple and iPad have already lost monopoly status”

    This seems sort of odd to me as well. Apple’s iPad is a very popular product, but it is hardly a monopoly except for people who want to buy it. That is like saying that GM’s Corvette is a monopoly because it is the only brand that fits a certain niche.

  15. Dr Loser says:

    As an interesting footnote to that weirdo “too much money” comment, btw, how do you think these people acquired “too much money” in the first place?

    None of the three basic possibilities that spring to mind suggest that Android automatically wins. Well, other than the “too much money because I am a miser” possibility (which is fine by me: nothing wrong with misers). Wonderful, isn’t it? Now they have “too much money” to spend on some other piece of consumer frippery.

    Feel free to guide them on that, Robert. Feel free to guide them.

  16. Dr Loser says:

    Was a “monopoly” ever a “monopoly” when the OEMs have choice?

    This hasn’t really been a significant issue since the DoJ stuff at the turn of the century, if even then.

    Nothing much has changed, Robert.

    You seem to be able to hold two contradictory concepts in your mind at once: “monopoly” and “pricing power.” I notice you’ve already, in this post, begun to refer to Apple as a “monopoly.” Incidentally, there are even pricing limitations on a monopoly (I could quote you an article if you like).

    So, let’s come to a tentative agreement on this one. Apple and Microsoft are being priced out of the market except for people with too much money.

    I think that’s about right. Other things (like build quality or battery life or whatever) being equal, this is a fair description of the current market for almost anything computer-related.

    Now, let’s talk about margins, shall we?

  17. Apple and iPad have already lost monopoly status. They are surrounded and as prices continue to fall will be priced out of the market except for people with too much money, just as they were for PCs and smart phones.

  18. Ray says:

    You left out Apple and their iPad.

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