There always seems to be war somewhere on the planet. A decade ago, the seeds of Afghanistan and Iraq were sprouting. Now it’s Syria and Iran. Some people need war to be relevant, the military-industrial complex and politicians.
- Does Obama need a good war to distract voters from domestic issues? He was elected on the basis of ending a predecessor’s war. If he becomes despairing enough, will he provoke war in the Middle East again? Fortunately, the Republicans seem in disarray. If they come up with a strong candidate who rattles the saber, will Obama have to preempt them?
- Syria continues to kill its people. Syria is on the verge of civil war. Any intervention by USA or Turkey or Israel will trigger a real mess. The Arab League is conflicted but may lean to war with any escalation.
- Iran is a very dangerous situation with nuclear weaponry being added to the mix. Closure of the Gulf with the world economy being fragile is a powerful lever for war. For now the war is a cold one. Israel/USA is assassinating scientists working on the nuclear weaponry. STUXnet was aimed at Iran. Warriors have a powerful argument that war commenced sooner will be less painful than later. It all boils down to whether or not war with Iran is inevitable.
- The Arab Spring is unfinished. Still democracy is tasted but not seized around the region. There is a possibility that a hot war anywhere in the region could trigger civil wars to overthrow corrupt/illegitimate regimes. There are plenty: Syria, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Sudan… How convenient will it be for one side or another to assume assistance from the outside will help them or that outsiders will be too busy with another matter to intervene?
- The world used to be provoked to war by ideology. Now there are no lies left thanks to Cablegate. War is about money/power. Getting it and keeping it. 2012 will have plenty of opportunities to destroy others’ power and to take their money.
I believe the world will be motivated to enter yet another hot war in 2012. All or most of the situations mentioned above will be involved. It’s too bad that leaders have the skills to arouse people to kill other people for some cause. It’s too bad the USA feels the need to meddle in the affairs of others, to call revolutionaries terrorists etc. all the while doing everything possible to destabilize non-clients even murder and torture. While we look back on history and pronounce ourselves morally superior, this tendency to throw off any semblance of civility in order to punish those who disagree with us shows the lie. I wish Canada had the intestinal fortitude to follow its own foreign policy and base choices on reason and morality not money and power. Canada could start by throwing M$, the FBI and the CIA out of Canada. They don’t work for us.