Android/Linux Tablets Continue to Erode iPad

According to IDC,

  • iPad’s share shrunk to 59.0%
  • Android/Linux’s share rose to 40.3%
  • the tablet unit market grew 23.9% over Q3
  • 2011 is estimated to have shipments of 63million tablets

I expect this means that sales of x86 PCs will decline a little in 2011 compared to 2010. I see more of the same in 2012 with Android/Linux overtaking iPad by mid-year (Android/Linux was at 32% of tablet shipments in Q3). Expect all kinds of violence from M$ once the tablet thing damages their bottom line for the whole year. The effect of tablets on M$’s bottom line has probably been of the order of -2% for 2011, hundreds of millions of dollars. The damage could be another $billion or so before “8” arrives. “8” on tablets will likely arrive before the desktop/notebook version in a vain attempt to stem the tide. It will be too little and too late. Tablets could ship 100 million more units before “8” arrives. Mobile access to Wikimedia rose 170% in the past year (Russian +200%, Portuguese +467%, Chinese +201%, Malay 10809% !!!, Indian 10804%!!!). The tablet phenomenon is an order of magnitude larger than netbooks and netbooks did more than $1 billion of damage to M$’s bottom line. Even business is not bothering to wait for “8”. They are buying tablets now, mostly iPad but Android/Linux is doing well. IDC reports that businesses are willing to pay up to 50% more for tablets with the right applications and about half have already evaluated tablets.

At the same time that tablets are taking a bite out of the personal computing market, GNU/Linux will continue to nibble and may reach “bite” status in 2012 thanks to OEMs and retailers seeing choice as an asset.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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5 Responses to Android/Linux Tablets Continue to Erode iPad

  1. Amen. Multi-tasking has been around for decades. Specifying the tasks is not an invention.

  2. Clarence Moon says:

    Well, it is easy to be dismissive about things that you do not have. “Sour Grapes” was the title, I think, of an Aesop fable in that regard. It remains, though, that Apple seems to have obtained a patent on the “smart” part of a smart phone. If you can’t run apps while you are talking, what good is it to even have a smart phone?

    The patent should be attacked immediately by the many vendors of smart phones along with Microsoft and Google, too, if there is any strategic sense in the world. I am not a patent attorney, but it would seem to me that a smart phone is just running multiple apps, like any computer today, and the communications task is just another app, sort of like running Skype while playing Angry Birds in another window.

  3. Software patents are not nuclear weapons but cow-pies. When I was a kid I learned not to step in them. When there are a lot in one place don’t pass through but go around. Will Apple be happy when no one will be able to sell a smart phone or a tablet anywhere? Kind of defeats the purpose of being in business.

  4. Waldo Frankenhammer III says:

    The problem with nuclear weapons is if you use yours, everyone else will use theirs. Apple is not the only one with a patent arsenal but they seem to think they are. Their aggressive behavior using patents against competitors has attracted a lot of negative attention. It doesn’t appear that they have made a connection between their attacks and being attacked. It will dawn on them eventually.

  5. Clarence Moon says:

    Apple seems to have acquired a nuclear weapon to use in the Android wars, Mr. Pogson. How say you to:

    This is about phones, but if someone who makes a tablet also makes a phone (I think that’s everyone) this could come into play.

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