- iPad’s share shrunk to 59.0%
- Android/Linux’s share rose to 40.3%
- the tablet unit market grew 23.9% over Q3
- 2011 is estimated to have shipments of 63million tablets
I expect this means that sales of x86 PCs will decline a little in 2011 compared to 2010. I see more of the same in 2012 with Android/Linux overtaking iPad by mid-year (Android/Linux was at 32% of tablet shipments in Q3). Expect all kinds of violence from M$ once the tablet thing damages their bottom line for the whole year. The effect of tablets on M$’s bottom line has probably been of the order of -2% for 2011, hundreds of millions of dollars. The damage could be another $billion or so before “8” arrives. “8” on tablets will likely arrive before the desktop/notebook version in a vain attempt to stem the tide. It will be too little and too late. Tablets could ship 100 million more units before “8” arrives. Mobile access to Wikimedia rose 170% in the past year (Russian +200%, Portuguese +467%, Chinese +201%, Malay 10809% !!!, Indian 10804%!!!). The tablet phenomenon is an order of magnitude larger than netbooks and netbooks did more than $1 billion of damage to M$’s bottom line. Even business is not bothering to wait for “8”. They are buying tablets now, mostly iPad but Android/Linux is doing well. IDC reports that businesses are willing to pay up to 50% more for tablets with the right applications and about half have already evaluated tablets.
At the same time that tablets are taking a bite out of the personal computing market, GNU/Linux will continue to nibble and may reach “bite” status in 2012 thanks to OEMs and retailers seeing choice as an asset.