Jay Layman is the latest to lose his way. He finds 4 predictions showing FLOSS going everywhere except on the desktop in 2012.
“With all of these other predictions, it will be hard for Linux to do much of anything in terms of the desktop, so I think it probably won’t in 2012.”
It’s not a zero-sum game. FLOSS doesn’t get used up somehow because it’s successful in the cloud, and mobile. FLOSS gets excited, drawing in new talent and more users sharing the joy. FLOSS is on fire and it will grow as long as there is fuel and oxygen. The fuel is the utter failure of M$ to innovate and the oxygen is the dramatic uptake in mobile. The same distros that have been wildly accepted in the mobile space can work on the desktop. That’s why M$ is attempting to make “8” cross-platform. FLOSS is way ahead of M$ in that game. FLOSS is way ahead in getting developers excited about the platform. There’s no growth for Wintel and small cheap computers running Linux on ARM are accelerating rapidly from an already huge installed base. More computers running Linux were sold in 2011 than that other OS. Developers know that and they will go where the action is. M$ is selling vapourware.
It’s like a game where the quarterback is throwing bullets, and the receivers are catching impossible balls. Are the linemen going to quit? No way. They will be inspired to push harder than ever. The GNU/Linux desktop keeps getting stronger, more widely used and loved. Ubuntu is being sold on millions of PCs per annum. Is Mark Shuttleworth quitting? No way. He’s aiming for 50 million per annum. Debian GNU/Linux has very few commercial entities pushing it on the desktop. Is GNU/Linux quitting? No way. Debian GNU/Linux has over 1000 developers and hundreds of mirrors/repositories around the world working harder all the time. The Debian organization has it’s own organizational chart. These guys are in it for the long haul and are not going away any time soon, Layman.
see Opinion – Top 5 Linux Predictions for 2012