Al Gillen of IDC Gets IT Right And Wrong

Al Gillen of IDC is quoted as predicting:

  • “Windows 8 will be largely irrelevant to the users of traditional PCs, and we expect effectively no upgrade activity from Windows 7 to Windows 8 in that form factor,”
  • “the only real benefit I can see is that it provides access to the Windows app store,”
  • “if it is unable to marshal the developer community to invest the way needed — and over the past several waves of Windows releases the company has not succeeded at this task — the future is bleak”

all of which I agree.

Then he reports
“You can’t declare Microsoft irrelevant when their OS ships on more than 90% of new systems” which is inconsistent with facts reported by IDC: 90 million PCs per quarter are being shipped and facts reported by M$: 50 million PCs per quarter are getting “7” licences, including upgrades of existing machines…

Al Gillen is at a tipping point. Pretty soon he will get the whole picture.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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10 Responses to Al Gillen of IDC Gets IT Right And Wrong

  1. Kozmcrae says:

    “I am ignoring any such nonsense in the future.”

    Please Clarence, don’t make promises you can’t keep.

  2. Clarence Moon says:

    Mr. Oiaohm, you are bordering on the obnoxious and contributing nothing but noise to the conversation. You are the one saying that there is a discontinuity in the available statistics and I simply say that you are obviously making a mistake. I don’t accept that it is so illegal to miscount things, and I certainly do not accept your often specious “legal” claims that you offer without any supporting evidence or even rationale.

    It is absurd to postulate that there are a hundred million or more computers manufactured in the world each year that are not accounted for in these statistics and are ignored by the technical business press. You may continue to act absurd, although I doubt that you have any actual way to apply this information to your own world.

    I am ignoring any such nonsense in the future.

    As to the Angry Birds via Chrome, I tried that out and it works pretty well although the browser version is a little clumsy compared to the real thing running as a native application. It is not full screen, for one thing, and there is a lot of advertising that is not present for the off-line version, even the free one.

    It only reinforces my point anyhow since there is nothing, including angry birds, to make anyone who is in a software application product business to care much one way or another about individual OS market share. They would simply provide a solution for them all as is done by Angry Birds, even for Linux.

  3. oiaohm says:

    Clarence Moon

    “then the number of computers produced is overstated or the number of Windows licenses is understated.”

    Prove it. Because either of your solutions to the error is true there are companies who have committed fraud to the share market. Yes Enron class offence is going on.

    Even the hidden warehouse complex would be a criminal offence.

    Simple fact is not one of your solutions is legal. This is my problem.

    This is why a blackhole should be explained. Your justification is saying criminals. If there are criminals they should be held to account.

    Both phones and tablets numbers are mostly tracked by unit. Those numbers are really solid. Carriers who are the service provider to mobile phones do release exact numbers of new phones connected per quarter and what those phones were even numbers of what the current population of actively used phones are. Yes in mobile phones you can do a graphic of exact models going out the connecting per quarter. There are no secrets in that game hardware makers and carriers would both have to lie.

    Tablets are almost all in the same camp because most have phone network chips all governments track what phone network chips are out there and what they are in. Only wifi models of tablets could possibly be missing from numbers same with wifi like voip phones. At this stage wifi don’t have regulation enforced tracking.

    Desktop PC contains no chip of particular interest for governments and carriers to keep lists of.

    Yes government regulations around the world require reporting the devices that can connect to the phone network directly and the exact lists of what ones are. Yes you can also get very exact details on the number of adsl modems shipped and connected to phone networks around the world same with all other broadband connection tech. Again this is because those devices contain a chip that governments are interested in tracking and the chip needs to speak to carriers directly so can be asked for ID.

    Of course most people not aware that every phone chipset for mobile phones and adsl/other broadband connection devices have a globally unique id that when connected to the network ID exactly what in heck it is so allowing 100 percent exact count of active units and when those active units come online.

    People find this out in Australia why you steal a phone here even changing sim it will end up a paper weight as it gets black listed. Same with steal a adsl modem or other broadband connection devies it will get black listed so become non functional because no Australian carrier will interface with it. Yes also this is how locking a phone to carrier works. Notice this stuff is mostly globally agreed. So yes a phone taken from Australia that is black listed will not work with USA or China phone networks because it will appear as a executive to networks of Australia.

    Yes hardware makers numbers for anything with a direct phone network connection can be confirmed other than old school dialup modems and old school analogy handsets since these do not have a UUID.

    Simple fact is Clarence Moon you have no clue what can be counted and what cannot be. PC computers are very hard to count due to not having a mandatory UUID by government regulation.

    Clarence Moon
    “Is it(Angry Birds) available for desktop Linux” That comes down to your define of desktop Linux I would guess you would call that Ubuntu.

    http://www.techdrivein.com/2011/05/easiest-way-to-play-angry-birds-in.html

    Done dusted. Its one of the applications that does not give a stuff what OS you are running. Install chrome play it. What are you trying to make me laugh at your level of incompetence. Large sections of android applications run in chrome did you not know this.

    To be correct large section of those multi platform games programs turn out to be first generation html5 applications. Angry birds is not natively coded for android iphones ipads or anything else. Its html5 So also works perfectly fine in chromebooks.

    This is why it what do you class as desktop Linux. Do you include chromebooks as desktop Linux.

  4. Clarence Moon says:

    Well, Mr. Oiaohm, if there actually is no huge pile of missing computers hidden in some secret warehouse complex, then the number of computers produced is overstated or the number of Windows licenses is understated. Which do you prefer be the actual case? I personally do not think that the numbers actually disagree and I have posed my rationale.

    We can see every 90 days or so the profitability of various public companies that sell and ship these computers and other devices. For any practical purpose, I think that is enough to know, and there are responsible industry analysts who are ready to offer their opinion and advice on how you or I (or Pogson) can make any investment decisions that we might consider. That data is pretty well audited, even allowing for shenanigans pulled by Enron or Bernie Madoff.

    Outside of investing in commercial companies, there is no real use for market share statistics unless you are a manufacturer of computers or phones or tablets. None of us here are in control of any such business, I would wager.

    ISVs seem to simply cover all the bases. I became aware of Angry Birds via the Kindle Fire that I purchased recently, but I have since learned that it is available for iPhone, Android phone, WP7 phone, iPad, a slew of Android tablets, and, just last night, the Windows PC. It worked perfectly with my laptop (using a mouse) and with my wife’s touchscreen Dell, forming a 10″ x 16″ tablet in effect. Is it available for desktop Linux?

    Same app, many different processors. It seems easy enough for ISVs to provide apps for any and all platforms without a lot of effort or time.

  5. oiaohm says:

    The problem every check of Units being shipped turns up the same numbers. So that is correct.

    The blackhole shows a issue. That IDC and others are not answering.

    Moves in web numbers to Linux are great enough to be a 30 percent new machine flow. So stockpile claim is kinda bogus.

    Clarence Moon the simple fact is we need better numbers than revenue numbers are showing. We know that android is currently dominate in smart phones by units sold but by revenue iphones are dominate by a large margin.

    Revenue is highly deceptive. Yes you can see both revenue and units on mobile phones this also demos the problem with using revenue to work out market share.

    Lot of anti-linux people depend on figures that are now way solid. You need to be called on using poor figures. Of course Linux people also would like to have trustable figures and be able to see what in heck is going on.

    Clarence Moon you have not explain for the missing. I have no explain for the missing. So until we do we cannot make any exact judgement how much Linux is being sold. We here information about areas selling large percentages but getting global is hard.

  6. Clarence Moon says:

    Do as much arithmetic as you please, Mr. Oiaohm, but until you locate the missing units, the only thing that you can say about the numbers is that they appear to be wrong. The real numbers will fit reality; either there are more Windows licenses being applied or the Windows licenses are not applied one for one with units shipped or there are not as many units being shipped as believed.

    Of course the missing numbers of units may indicate a world-wide conspiracy to stockpile hundreds of millions of Linux computers in a secret location to be used after some Armageddon occurs. Whatever you wish to believe is fine with me.

  7. oiaohm says:

    Clarence Moon
    “No one is yet publishing (for free anyway) that X PCs were shipped and Y were with Windows and Z were with OS X and W were with Linux and N were with no OS at all.”
    That no one is publishing these key metrics in the desktop and server world what is going is why I am acquiring information on units from many different sources and doing the number myself.

    Even that we cannot get the full set of information we are still get a general picture of how really big Windows is. How big OS X is because both of those companies are reporting there yearly sales numbers in units.

    How much is Linux and how much is Freedos is up in the air. Yes there are only 4 OS options for a desktop class machine.
    Windows 7, OS X, Linux and Freedos. There are no other options from the big OEM’s.

    Being able to count 2 OS is very effective. X PC shipped is acquirable from many sourses. Windows and OS X come from reports to the share market reports by Apple and Microsoft.

    OEM’s are not required to report the number of machines they ship with Linux or Freedos to anyone in the desktop market. So counting them most likely will always be impossible. Only clue will be how large the blackhole of unaccounted for machines is.

    Mobile phones and tablets if I want these metrics they are simple to get. Same with anything with embed mobile phone support. These devices do have to be reported for global phone network secuirty reasons.

    Simple fact is that no single party provides the numbers does not mean that the maths cannot be done on validly aquired numbers.

  8. oiaohm says:

    Clarence Moon

    “No one is yet publishing (for free anyway) that X PCs were shipped and Y were with Windows and Z were with OS X and W were with Linux and N were with no OS at all.”

    There is a problem the companies IDC and other track because they are track-able don’t ship with no OS at all. Closet to no OS at all is a freedos disk/memory stick in the box not installed. Reason something to perform diagnostics on the machine when it lands to make sure it runs. Again this has been true for over 6 years Clarence Moon.

    So yes its not N for no OS at all. It N for freedos.

    Yes it does get stupid in servers you have ordered it like OS less and you open the box and there is freedos or Linux live disk in there. This is part of the agreement to reduce piracy no machine leaves without a OS of some from big OEMs.

    Basically on this point it time you catch up with real world. White boxs that are not being counted directly are the ones that can maybe ship with no OS at all.

    –Perhaps Microsoft is lying– This is a valid question. If they are lying on a stock exchange report to share holders this is enough to suspend trade and quite a major offence. If Microsoft is lying they need to be held to account.

    Clarence Moon time to put up. You say IDC is lieing on total number of PC shipped. Please find documents confirming it.

    Unit numbers confirm to me that IDC market share breakdown is most likely wrong and past errors with Unix and Linux also shows that there market breakdowns are most likely wrong. I am working from evidence on every point I call IDC untrustable. I have no evidence to say the overall total units shipped for desktop and server by IDC is wrong since it matches up with other sources. There breakdowns to OS are defective.

    Clarence Moon you are a troll working from guess work. We have to be wrong we cannot be right yet you have nothing backing your case at all. Your homework is poorly done. Like talking about licenses that don’t exist. Machines shipping with no OS that don’t exist in the numbers.

    There is either a huge amount of Linux shipping or freedos shipping to explain the numbers of unexplained if MS is not lying some how. Either way Open source OS is shipping. Problem is neither tracks the numbers shipped.

  9. Thanks for the correction. I fixed the link.

    IDC’s numbers are consistent although not identical with a number of sources and they have the manpower and expertise to conduct surveys rather than just guess so I accept their free press releases as the best information I can afford. I wish I could spend $thousands on full reports but the little woman would likely object.

  10. Clarence Moon says:

    I think your link is incorrect here although it was easy to google for news of the author and topic.

    As to the rest, we will have to agree to disagree. How do you think it can be that IDC’s estimates can be so wrong? Could it be that they are lying about how many PCs are shipping each quarter? Perhaps Microsoft is lying? No one is yet publishing (for free anyway) that X PCs were shipped and Y were with Windows and Z were with OS X and W were with Linux and N were with no OS at all.

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