Global HDD supply to be 35% short in 4Q11, say PC makers according to Digitimes.
The consequences of this are very interesting:
- When ARMed smart thingies are increasingly attractive to consumers with lowering prices, Wintel with rising prices may become less attractive.
- The Christmas season when a lot of retailers ship huge volumes and make their annual profits will be hit hard.
- This situation could take 9 months or longer to correct by increasing production.
- This will increase interest in server-centric computing where few hard drives can serve many.
- Wintel, which depends on every-increasing volumes to pay for extravagant life-styles will take a serious hit. What will M$’s client division’s bottom line look like with 35% fewer hard drives to license?
So, if there weren’t already enough good reasons to switch to GNU/Linux and thin clients, necessity may be the final push. I expect M$ will have to dip into cash reserves to keep paying off its “partners”. I expect more partners will look for smarter ways of doing things. I expect more consumers will find alternatives to Wintel. Since “8” is nowhere in site, M$’s empire will be negatively affected for months. It’s all good unless you need more storage… but at least you have the option to put that storage on a server.