2012 Will Be A Great Year in IT

Digitimes reports that several big players in the PC industry are investing heavily in R&D in order to remain competitive in 2012.

“An Acer executive also pointed out that the PC industry is experiencing a significant change, transitioning from Wintel system dominated to competition between several different platforms. Therefore, to the ability to develop devices based on Google’s Android system or ARM will become important.”

Remember when ASUS shook the world with the announcement of GNU/Linux on a netbook? Well, that will look like a teardrop compared to the flood of innovation 2012 will bring. Expect Android/Linux and GNU/Linux on ARM to intrude into the desktop/notebook space previously dominated by Wintel and the players will push product before M$ because the software is out there already. They just have to tweak it.

The OEMs have been M$’s lapdogs for too long because they saw no alternative. There are several alternatives now and M$ will no longer get a free ride. Neither will Intel. Choice will be present on retail shelves for the first time in more than a decade and widely.

see Digitimes – HP, Dell, Acer to expand R&D investments

These folks, combined, ship 40% of the world’s x86/amd64 PCs. They plan to increase R&D effort from 50 to 100%. They are serious.

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12 Responses to 2012 Will Be A Great Year in IT

  1. oiaohm says:

    Dr Loser funny enough Asus started that the return rate was mostly caused by Linux not being a known product and people aquired it and treated it like Windows because they knew no different so when it exploded in there face returned it. Once Linux settled into the market the return rates ended up lower than Windows. Less software failures. Still the same number of hardware failures.

    Doing a Android laptop today you would not have this problem. Android is kinda a known brand. The laptop return rate problem showed that don’t drop a new OS on the market quickly you will only confuse them.

    The simple fact of the matter Robert and me don’t always see eye to eye. Sometimes it due to the different market I am in sometimes its the way I like doing things.

  2. pogson says:

    Dream on, Dr Loser. I know people who asked to have XP replaced with GNU/Linux.

  3. Dr Loser says:

    @Oiaohm & Robert:

    So, you two are arguing with each other now? How sweet.

    Regarding the Asus eee (I bought the HP SLES alternative, because it was shinier), that’s an interesting statistic you have from 2007.11.21, Mr Pogson.

    Do you have the resultant statistic wherein people returned their eee in droves and demanded that the OS be replaced by XP?

    It’s hard to be righteous. Sometimes, people just let you down.

  4. oiaohm says:

    pogson that is partly market Australian are quite big people. If you look at USA marketing it was kids targeted as well.

    I forgot about Asian marketing.

    Ok so it was sold differently in some other markets. It did go like kinda hot cakes. All Windows 7 supporting eep pc have also been Linux supporting.

    I should have stated time frame. It was never expected to sell a million units a quarter kinda broke asus supply lines for parts because it sold many times what was expected.

    Under a million units a quarter is not a large seller really. Lot of android products are crossing the 1 million a month market very quickly after release.

    350 thousand was the first expected sales goal. It kinda was too low.

  5. pogson says:

    oiaohm wrote, “remember when Linux did take off in the laptops ASUS had released it as a kids toy. It was never meant to sell a million units.”

    Ask ASUS about that. They also pushed the eeePC as a woman’s PC, light, small and portable. People with small hands for that keyboard included women. They started production at 150K per month, more than 1 million per annum.

    It took them months to catch up with demand.

    According to ASUS (2007.11.21), “”In the two weeks since it’s launch in the US, the Eee PC has already sold ten thousand sets,” said Sunny Han, Director of ASUS Global Brand Center – confirming the Eee PC’s massive US sales figures. By the end of this year, the projected sales goal of 350 thousand will be met; and next year that figure is projected at 3 to 5 million.” So, they were talking about 350K in the first quarter, 1.4 million per annum.

  6. oiaohm says:

    Clarence Moon please only talk about stuff you have used “Windows 7 Starter” is different to home in many annoying ways.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_7_editions#Comparison_chart

    Lot of options are removed from starter. One of the most annoying is the removal of Printing via Internet basically cups printing so meaning many network printers don’t work with windows starter. Other is Multiple monitors support removed. Both major annoyances compared to home.

    Also notice 32 bit only with a 2G memory limit. So forget running any big memory hungry programs on starter.

    Shifter remember when Linux did take off in the laptops ASUS had released it as a kids toy. It was never meant to sell a million units.

    ASUS really did not prep the process and it really did show. Just hacked up a friendlish interface on Linux. Same with the other Linux laptop providers at the time.

    Also Shifter remember Windows 8 will be on arm so poor windows users are going to get caught out go in buy a machine with Windows 8 on it take it home and have none of the existing applications work.

    This is good this will get people use to the evil shock horror of platform change. The biggest road blocks to Linux. People unwilling to put up with platform change.

    Also explain why HP is developing arm based servers Shifter. There is a problem here power prices globally are going up. Arm will be in the server room. Arm will be in the Office thin clients. Arm will be basically everywhere. So if you business applications don’t run on Arm you will be in trouble.

    Now some application makers might avoid Linux for a while but again this is a road ahead problem.

    Simple fact ARM machines pull less than 20 watts of power a seat with ARM server backed thin clients. Yes that is powering the server the screen and the switch. This can work out at 10 seats for the power usage of 1 very simply.

    Less power draw small UPS systems required. Due to ARM lower heat generation less air-conditioning required. The cost saving add up very quickly.

    So yes I do expect to see businesses running Windows 8 arm in there server rooms to feed Windows 8 to there client machines simply due to the power saving and the linked cost savings.

    Application makers will be forced to catch up. Either release there applications for android(what would be the wise thing) or release there applications for Windows 8 Arm. Why android arm the wise thing since it will most likely run on Windows 8 Arm as well. So servicing two markets at once.

    This is why MS is in trouble. Application makers have no particular reason to port to Windows 8 Arm.

  7. Clarence Moon says:

    I think you are wrong here and what happened is that Microsoft had a big quarter in 2007 and couldn’t repeat in 2008. It may be that netbooks took some of the air out of their baloon, too, and PC notebook sales fell and they didn’t get as much for XP on netbooks as they would have gotten for Vista on a laptop, but that isn’t the same as paying OEMs to use XP.

  8. pogson says:

    Client Division Revenue

    Q1 2007 $5153 million
    Q1 2008 $3924 million

    My! What happened there? OEMs received $1000 million to install XP on netbooks.

    Of course, M$ has another explanation which you may or may not believe if you can figure out what the heck it means:
    “Client revenue decreased during the three months ended March 31, 2008, primarily reflecting revenue of approximately $1.2 billion recognized during the third quarter of the prior fiscal year upon the January 2007 release of Windows Vista to consumers. The amount had been deferred during the first half of fiscal year 2007 as a result of the Express Upgrade to Windows Vista Technology Guarantee program. Client revenue increased during the nine months ended March 31, 2008, primarily reflecting licensing of Windows Vista. During the three months ended March 31, 2008, OEM revenue decreased $1.1 billion or 25%, primarily reflecting revenue recognized during the third quarter of fiscal year 2007 related to the technology guarantee program, partially offset by a 5% increase in OEM license units. During the nine months ended March 31, 2008, OEM revenue increased $1.3 billion or 14%, driven by 14% growth in OEM license units. Revenue from commercial and retail licensing of Windows operating systems decreased $146 million or 18% during the three months ended March 31, 2008, primarily reflecting revenue recognized during the third quarter of the prior year related to the January 2007 consumer launch of Windows Vista. Revenue from commercial and retail licensing of Windows operating systems increased $71 million or 4% during the nine months ended March 31, 2008, primarily due to sales from Enterprise Agreements and anti-piracy efforts in emerging markets. The OEM premium mix increased five percentage points to 76% compared with the third quarter of last year and nine percentage points to 75% compared with the first nine months of last year, driven by increased consumer premium mix. Based on our estimates, total worldwide PC shipments from all sources grew 8% to 10% from the third quarter of the previous year and 12% to 14% from the first nine months of the previous year driven by demand in both emerging and mature markets.”

    I think it means M$ payed OEMs $1000 million to install XP instead of GNU/Linux.

    There are a lot of “primarily”s in that paragraph but this one stands out:
    “During the three months ended March 31, 2008, OEM revenue decreased $1.1 billion or 25%, primarily reflecting revenue recognized during the third quarter of fiscal year 2007 related to the technology guarantee program, partially offset by a 5% increase in OEM license units.” Huh? How can revenue recognized in Q3 2007 give such a big hit to Q1 2008? This is money OEMs got one way or another…

  9. Clarence Moon says:

    I do not believe that Microsoft paid OEMs to install XP on netbooks. Rather, they cut the price of XP to the bone for OEMs who wanted to supply a Windows netbook. I understand that the conventional wisdom is that Windows 7 is a lot less than for laptops and desktops, too, and is know as Windows 7 Starter Edition although I think it is exactly the same as Windows 7 Home except for the name.

    I agree with Shifter in that ARM is efficatious mostly due to the power consumption aspect. There is a big disadvantge to ARM in that it is not compatible with the oceans of binaries that exist and are used by most people with their computers based on x86 technology.

    If a buyer has a choice of an ARM or x86 Intel netbook or laptop equivalent, they are similarly faced with a choice of having to obtain new applications for ARM or being able to re-use existing ones with x86. At today’s prices, that is a bigger issue than the base hardware technology.

  10. pogson says:

    Oh, there’s more to ARM than lower power consumption. There’s size and fanlessness which works beautifully in all-in-one PCs. We can do without the box. Same goes for thin clients. They can fit in a cable-do-da. They are also inexpensive. While it starts being really hard to produce a PC for less than $300 with x86 and that other OS, it is trivial with ARM and GNU/Linux.

    You forget that M$ had to pay OEMs $1billion to install XP on netbooks. That bought contempt for sluggish netbooks too. GNU/Linux is still thriving on netbooks. Fewer are produced but there’s still millions cranked out running GNU/Linux each year.

    If a user is happy with GNU/Linux on x86 they will be happier on ARM if price/performance matters.

  11. Shifter says:

    Yes, and I remember how Linux was going to dominate the netbook. Then that was lost in the sea of consumer indifference and now Linux will dominate the tablet and it will somehow springboard from there and intrude back into notebook and desktop via ARM?

    Why?

    The sole advantage of ARM, as I understand it, is in power consumption. Once you tether a system to the wall, what’s the point? It’s about as much use as putting Atom or AMD C-series into desktops or traditional large form factor notebooks. Toss aside your Core chips and accept a computing experience that makes you think of y2k?

    Your Pognostications are a little too rosy, I think. Consumers will accept Android on the tablet for the same reason they accept that OSX isn’t running their iPad – it’s a limited device in a convenient form factor that performs a small yet important subset of tasks that they require of their technology. It’s no different from the limited nature of a Kobo; a device that is still worth its price to many despite being a 1-trick pony.
    They still maintain an x86 system of some sort, with a full OS and rich software ecosystem, to do the heavy lifting.

    Limited devices are good for playtime, less so for work.

    Though once Windows 8 comes to market on those exact same devices, we will see what, precisely, consumers wish to do with those devices.

    And I’m not holding my breath for ARM coming to anything that doesn’t depend on battery power. That means tablets, netbooks, and possibly something like the Ultrabook form factor.

    By the way. Shouldn’t you be saying “Losetel” or something equally pithy? “Fail” is also a favorite prefix in your toss sphere of peers.

    I also have to ask – do you have a macro assigned to M-Shift-4?

    I’m still not certain whether you’re dead serious, or are a fake-steve-jobs sort of semi-professional troll… I’m hoping for the latter, and taking comfort in my anonymity if it’s the former.

    À bientôt

  12. Phenom says:

    Quote: “They just have to tweak it.”

    This is a major part of the problem, Pogson. You always need to tweak something. Basically nothing works out of the box.

    Ah, btw, “8” will be released in 2012, too.

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