Dropping The Bomb on Usage

A comment on a post by SJVN caught my eye. How does usage of Android/Linux compare with that other OS?

We have some numbers. M$ claims about 50 million licences are sold each quarter, 91 days. Google claims 550K activations per day, also 50 million activations per quarter. Of course, M$ had the lead in installed base but it shows how tenuous M$’s hold on the OS marketplace is. With the imminent decline of the “personal computer”, Android/Linux could exceed M$’s shipments this quarter. Then, it’s just a matter of whether or not Android/Linux and/or GNU/Linux will expand into the “personal computer” space. Clearly Android/Linux is used on a lot of smart thingies as “personal computers”.

Since consumers tend to be herding animals the popularity of Android/Linux equalling the popularity of that other OS in unit sales could mean this is the inflection point/tipping point marking the end of monopoly. We live in interesting times. M$’s and Android’s numbers seem to have flattened out in growth so things could go either way. I would bet with the arrival of Android 4 on tablets, Android/Linux is going to have another bump around the Christmas season whereas M$ has only vapourware to sell. Nokia is not helping M$ much these days.

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5 Responses to Dropping The Bomb on Usage

  1. oiaohm says:

    I was meaning a full PC in the sense of a desktop machine/laptop. I don’t see lots of the population needing this. Even in business the requirement could reduce.

    When it comes to eyesight TV LCD might be better for the elderly than a PC LCD at times. Due to the bigger dots used in the TV LCD version so text is bigger at Max result ion without distortion .

    Yes age causes eyesight and dexterity to drop in most people. So there will always be a need for the large versions of stuff.

    There are areas where having desktop machine has some advantages at this stage. Items using GPU for processing.

    I would not be surprised if the number is less than 20 percent of desktop and laptop consumers really do need them.

    Item like the Cotton Candy and others are targeting those who need the bigger device sizes. The question who needs a full computer with internal hard drives and powerful gpu processing and what percentage of the market do they make up. If 20 percent of MS current market is that MS could be in for a real harm to market share.

    Its really how many have been buying a bigger computer than what they really need because there was nothing on the market that really suited them.

  2. pogson says:

    oiaohm wrote, “a full PC”. This term is ambiguous. A smart phone can doing anything an x86 PC can do except read CDs. They are “full PCs”. Because of modest clock speeds and memory bandwidth they may be slower for some tasks but in many cases that does not matter, say, for example, waiting for a server to respond on the web. Many full PCs idle all day long never going above 10% CPU utilization. Therefor a CPU running 20% of that speed should be quite acceptable.

    People find this is so and many millions now use a smart phone in place of a desktop/notebook PC. In my family the young people all use smart phones regularly and a notebook PC occasionally. I think it’s an eyesight/dexterity/mobility thing.

  3. oiaohm says:

    Ultimate is in fact targeted at people who are willing to spend 2200 and up on a computer.

    Microsoft Windows 7 Pro at 130 is targeted at 1300 dollar range and black mailing businesses and anyone else that need networking.
    Microsoft Windows 7 Home Premium that is 90 dollars is targeted at the 900 dollar range.

    Microsoft Windows 7 Starter that is about 15 to 20 dollars something targeted at the 200 dollar range. One problem you cannot go into a store and buy Microsoft Windows 7 Starter not already on a machine.

    Also all of those are designed to be machine binding.

    The disruption is getting users use to the fact OS does not have to be machine stuck and can be on a device small enough to go in pocket.

    Now of course there is most likely no reason why android mobile phones could not start doing the same thing as this device here does.

    This is approach method also avoids the boot loader lock MS is attempting todo as well. As some said android needs to build its own platform. Of course they never thought threw what happens if Android does. Platform that can do some PC work without requiring PC todo it.

    Question is how much of the population needs a full PC. How much will be suitably supported by Android devices that plug into TV screens.

    The battle is on. Only sure bet is reduced profit for MS Windows.

  4. pogson says:

    M$ used to have a fixed-price scheme globally. Then they dropped to $3 or so in Asia. Then they gave training, software and equipment away for free to governments and educational establishments who expressed a desire to break free. At the same time they jacked up the prices of “advanced” versions of their OS. Assuming they are selling 50 million copies per quarter as reported and their revenue is $4.8 billion, the average unit cost is something like $96 but the average selling price of a PC is nowhere near $1000. “Ultimate” is advertised at $220. The addicts will pay anything to get their fix. One way M$ will end is the addicts paying $1000 and the rest of the world using GNU/Linux.

  5. oiaohm says:

    Really there is a new bombshell.

    http://www.linuxfordevices.com/c/a/News/FXI-Technologies-Cotton-Candy/

    This was predictable this is the first of many coming devices. Problem is the price tag a max of 200 USD. By MS own model the most they can charge for a OS is 10 percent. So windows price has to be reduced to 20 dollars to run on that.

    This also brings a model of unbinding the OS from the computer. So this may bring end to upgrading OS and hardware at the same time.

    Next on a device that size where are you going to stick the COA sticker. Next wave of battle is here. Lower profits for Microsoft is fairly much predictable.

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