The Future is Now

That twit, Adrian Kingsley-Hughes writes again that the year of desktop GNU/Linux is not coming and repeats the lie that GNU/Linux gets only 1% share of something.

Of course, he ignores all the data that does not support his thesis:

So, again, the premise is wrong, that GNU/Linux is at the 1% level. Reality is very different in other parts of the world. GNU/Linux is being promoted/advertised/pushed/sold. Check out Dell’s site in China. Dell has no problem selling GNU/Linux there. Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is just unaware of that…

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
This entry was posted in technology. Bookmark the permalink.

12 Responses to The Future is Now

  1. oiaohm says:

    Ivan
    “To be fair, if they didn’t include the busybox based appliances as ‘linux installs’ they’d have to admit that they are pulling numbers out of their hind ends.”
    Really idiot as normal.

    Busybox devices are basically everywhere. This has been Linux spreading between hardware makers unnoticed.

    Problem is these hardware makers are now changing what they are producing. Embedded installs also are happening with motherboards.

    Desktop deployment reports up until now with Linux have been opt in. The problem is Linux at particular point in future is going to be like PC where most places you buy you get Windows no matter if you want it or not. Linux with screen tech you will be getting no matter if you want it or not.

    “Of course if reality does intrude, they’ll just blame Microsoft. It’s always easier to blame external entities than it is to fix the glaring problems in their software.”

    Video stack Samsung and Texas Instruments both heavily working on that. They are after non screen connected gpu support. Along with a lot of other parties.

    There are glaring problems in MS Windows as well that go unfixed.

    Also recently common sense has caught up with ubuntu. Mono gone by default. This now leaves No Linux Distribution that comes out box with .net installed.

    Really Ivan only glaring error you have been listing is the esr cups one that is out of date so by current tech invalid.

    libreoffice is lacking function in a few areas still but this is largely user base. As it userbase keeps on growing so is its function.

    Yes some of the glaring problems for Linux Desktop are not simple to fix. But that does not change the path we are on.

  2. oiaohm says:

    I should have been more exactly why and what desktop market.

    Year of a desktop was the idea all home and business generic desktop.

    2002 redhat declared that idea dead. And focused on the desktop market that is enterprise workstations.

    Barriers that were listed in 2002 included MS Office closed formats, MS Network protocols and most importantly lack of games and poor video card drivers who is going to have one home PC and not be able to play games on it. So a true year of a linux desktop would not be possible for a very long time.

    Of course as time moves on those barriers preventing a run at the year of the Linux desktop are reducing.

    Yes the 2009 position is more interesting. Redhat knows there will be a desktop market now some point in the future. Problem is they don’t know how to make money from it.

    But the reasons why redhat declared the complete idea of the year of the Linux desktop dead have not all changed yet but are changing.

    The one thing we can say is the year of the Linux Workstation for many businesses has happened many times. This results in 80 percent of the businesses machines running Linux without any harm to production.

    I do like the bit in redhat statement. “Very few people are running a desktop that’s mission-critical” Ok so redhat desktop sells more when someone live is on the line? This could possibly be true.

    Little interesting fact. Web surveys show more home computers than business computers. Even that the population of business computers is larger than home computers in lots of countries. This could explain why a lot MS sourced numbers on Linux desktop have it around 3 to 10 percent when lot of web surveys have it around 1 percent. So the market redhat is operating in for desktop would be mostly invisible. So 10K desktops that basically 99.9 disappear.

  3. Ivan says:

    “We’re talking about desktops, not TVs here.”

    To be fair, if they didn’t include the busybox based appliances as ‘linux installs’ they’d have to admit that they are pulling numbers out of their hind ends.

    The fact that all of the multi-site web counters show between 0.8 and 1.6 percent Linux use is meaningless as those numbers are verifiable and based in reality. They can’t have silly things like reality interfering in the feel good nature of the “year of the linux desktop” nonsense.

    Of course if reality does intrude, they’ll just blame Microsoft. It’s always easier to blame external entities than it is to fix the glaring problems in their software.

  4. oiaohm wrote, “redhat declared it dead.”

    Nope. Red Hat stated they did not know how to make money from GNU/Linux on the desktop.

    “”First of all, I don’t know how to make money on it. Very few people are running a desktop that’s mission-critical” said Whitehurst, noting that Red Hat does have a desktop offering pointed at enterprise deployments, but not home users. The story notes other businessfolk playing down Linux’s chances in the mass market — although one chap noted that he has Linux deployed throughout his business and on his home PCs.”

    This is an acknowledgment that consumers want to pay $0 for GNU/Linux, not that it’s dead. Red Hat serves its customers. It does not lead them around by the nose like M$. RedHat’s customers are mostly businesses. Most businesses use that other OS and don’t want to pay for GNU/Linux. Consumers are happy with GNU/Linux. Netbooks sold out with it.

    Things are quite different with cloud and virtual computing arising. Red Hat now has systems that allow one admin to support 10K desktops. Obviously, RedHat’s customers are demanding it now.

  5. oiaohm says:

    Ch number 1 I never said Canonical was smart. Canonical is a blip compared to most of the Linux World. Very small blip.

    “We’re talking about desktops, not TVs here.”
    Problem here in reality we are not talking different. Windows Media Centre PC remember it. Desktops and TV’s will become one and the same. Its just taking longer than MS expected.

    “Linux in a monitor ? Why ?”

    Now that is the question you really do need the answer to. There is a item called ip2dvi and others. That is quite simply a reason for you monitor to have a network port on it. Once you have a network port on it next step is usb over ethernet for usb ports in screen for remote computer providing feed.

    Basically how you are connecting to your monitor will be changing again yipppee(not I have enough different cables).

    Final step of course is space for OS for thin client or full os. Since by this point you are spending enough in chips and ip anyhow you might as well go full hog. Not going to increase cost any placing something like android on it.

    Again at this point your computer screen and TV being produced as two different items will start to make no more common sense hardware makers. This is simplification of the market. People have not noticed that TV screens and computer monitors are basically spitting up exactly the same res options.

    Yes this is the road we are on. So be sure convergence between PC and TV. Just think about the day when there is no difference that is coming.

    “My smartphone has an ARM CPU in it, but no Linux.” I guess your phone is one of the fading away versions like OSi. The forecast loss in the phone market to android is basically the same forecast for everything else.

    Yes iphones don’t have hdmi out.

    Smartphone makers and TV and PC screen makers are very much the same bunch of people.

    If you look back none of the Linux people were proclaiming this will be the year of the Linux desktop. If you look closely you see a lot asking will this be the year of Linux desktop. Until about 2002 and redhat declared it dead. Most of the this will be the year of Linux desktop after that was trolls or wishful thinking.

    Canonical with Bug No1 was trying to revive interest in the desktop that the rest of the Linux word had seamed to have given up on. Instead focusing full speed on servicing embedded.

    Netbooks was more what the heck. Kids toy by Asus sold like a bat out of hell. Yes The first Asus Linux netbooks Asus thought they were producing a kids toy.

    So there has not been a serous attempt really in the last 6 + years.

    Yes MS had to discount copies of Windows to beat a kids toyes not a serous run at it. And are still doing discount in form of Windows Starter.

    One thing the kids toyes proved was that Linux GUI would be used. So starting the part to Android. That now starting a path to take the desktop computer out. Leaving behind the laptop.

    Yes hp and others have also been seeing the merge between screen and computer for a long time. None was thinking the sucessful requires a 3 things.

    Screen+tv+some pc functions on a cheaper to produce chip. Now the successful is found the time bomb is ticking. The road block to screen and computer merging was the price of x86. Ie x86 embed screen was too expensive for those who did not want computer function. Arm no such problem.

    Can you now the problem the divides between markets are crumbling.

  6. ch says:

    “Reason you buy a TV Linux Desktop will be Embeded in that. You buy a Set top box a Linux Desktop will be Embedded in that.”

    We’re talking about desktops, not TVs here.

    “You buy a monitor Linux desktop embedded in that.”

    Linux in a monitor ? Why ?

    “What will all these Linux OS’s be on Arm chips.”

    My smartphone has an ARM CPU in it, but no Linux.

    “Who said Linux people were not smart. Maybe they had no interest in the normal PC desktop market because simply long term it is doomed.”

    Yeah, Canonical never was interested in desktops, and they never filed Bug No. 1. Sure. Nobody ever proclaimed that next year would be the year of Linux on the desktop. Just go on rewriting history, son.

  7. ch wrote of GNU/Linux roll-outs, “On the order of millions of PCs so it would change the 1%-thing ? No.”

    How many PCs does the government of Russia have? How about Brazil, India, and China?

  8. oiaohm says:

    ch what you don’t get is that you will be buying Linux desktops no matter what you think.

    I seriously do mean you point of view will not mean a rats. Only option you will have is what style of Linux Desktop you get.

    Reason you buy a TV Linux Desktop will be Embeded in that. You buy a Set top box a Linux Desktop will be Embedded in that. You buy a monitor Linux desktop embedded in that. What will all these Linux OS’s be on Arm chips.

    Yes Arm Desktops are coming like it or not. Linux is along for the ride.

    Basically hardware vendors are going to give it to you no matter what you think ch.

    Reason 50 dollars extra to price of screen? No you have to insert a CPU into tv to process digital signal. So the 50 dollars for processing hardware is already spent. Thank you countries mandating digital TV signal. This is the cause of the incoming wave of disruption. And is the straw that has broken everything. Harddrive in the box to be a PVR of course to record programs. What did analogue tv use tape of course. Digital TV brings the TV game head to head with the PC game.

    Budget for OS to run on TV related hardware. Firmware development cost or less. Money left over for a closed source OS like Windows Zip.

    Now once you accept the fact that Linux Desktop interfaces are coming the only topic really left to talk about is what one will Win.

    Will you be using Android, Tizen, Ubuntu or something different. Microsoft is not even worth talking about. Yes MS releasing on arm I don’t think they are going to go cheap enough to have TV makers and others include there OS out box.

    TV makers don’t have to beg to MS to sell product.

    Roll out volume we are talking here is huge. Per year more TV’s ship than PC’s globally.

    Who said Linux people were not smart. Maybe they had no interest in the normal PC desktop market because simply long term it is doomed. Idea of PC and TV fusing into one is not a new idea it is just starting to happen big time.

    Just go for a good walk around the TV and notice items like baba. These are the start of the change.

    There is a chance you have already aquired a Linux Desktop just don’t recognize it yet until firmware update are applied and it shows self.

    I have noticed for a long time Linux has been Everywhere yet no where in view for a long time. As Linux shows itself lot of people are going to be shocked how far it has already spread unnoticed.

  9. Anon says:

    “Announcements of future plans. Let’s check again later.”

    Well, the French have made such promises and did go through with them, and Russia was preparing for this for some time now.

    I agree that this is something yet to happen, however 1% is bs, and has been for some time now.

  10. ch says:

    “Of course, he ignores all the data that does not support his thesis”

    You obviously are very familiar with that, so why do you accuse others of what you do yourself ?

    “numerous large roll-outs”

    On the order of millions of PCs so it would change the 1%-thing ? No.

    “making the need for a PC running M$’s OS obsolete”

    That might (in your dreams) or might not (in the corporate world) have consequences someday, but how does it mean AKH is a liar today ?

    “whole governments adopting GNU/Linux”

    Announcements of future plans. Let’s check again later.

    “ARM and Linux coming to desktops near you”

    Oh, I _can_ actually buy something ARMy/Linuxy, so that must totally mean everybody is buying it and it’s much more than 1% marketshare for Linux on the desktop? Please ask a teacher to re-explain the basics of logic to you. Calling someone else a liar and then offering only such a weak excuse for “evidence” is not nice, Mr Pogson.

  11. Ray says:

    Fine, 2%. 😀

    Future sales don’t count.

Leave a Reply