People Cannot Buy Large Expensive Computers Even if They Wanted Them

The floods in Thailand and the availability of small cheap PCs is holding back Wintel’s attempt at up-selling PCs generally.

This severely impacts M$’s plans for world domination. They cannot defend against the swarms of small cheap computers on retail shelves. They have no competitive product and their old locked-in market is getting tired…

UPDATE ASUS reports they only have one month’s supply of hard drives left.

UPDATE Western Digital and Samsung are cutting supplies of hard drives in November. Some OEMs have only a two week supply left. The shortage is expected to continue through Q1 of 2012. Without hard drives to copy that other OS onto, M$’s cash flow could be compromised. It couldn’t happen to a more deserving company… Meanwhile Android/Linux keeps flowing onto flash drives.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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49 Responses to People Cannot Buy Large Expensive Computers Even if They Wanted Them

  1. oldman says:

    “It was in your undertone so you did oldman. You are blame those who have trouble with the undertone in your words.”

    Nope. I simply make a statement of fact. Now I will admit that I did not go into why I think that I have had fewer problems, but I did not think that I needed to because there ave been quite a few others on my side who have expressed the same experiences.

    “Yes this should explain why Linux people do take such offence to you at times oldman. You are not watching the undertones in your words so you insult them.

    Your English Skill is not good enough to express yourself correctly oldman is what I presume. So you are not aware you are directly insulting people.”

    My english skill is quite good enough to put together a coherent paragraph, unlike yours. And I am very aware when I am insulting someone Mr. Ohio Ham.

    Are You?

    “This is why a person poor at english is going to rip you to shreds for poor english in other areas of english. The bugger studied it all.

    HAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

    Get over yourself, Mr. techno Janitor, you are just a nym on a blog, nothing more.

    “Really I think it would be fun to sit you down with a BA level comprehension test and see how far you get oldman particularly in the basic undertones section. I do suspect you would do poorly.”

    Ah yes but then that is a pleasure that you will never have Mr. Ohio Ham. On the other hand I have had the fun of watching you get taken down a peg by posters who unlike myself have the both the time and inclination to challenge your techno bushwah.

    And it WAS fun to watch….

    “Please avoiding the question who do you think you are typing to here.

    What one is more fragile. I did not ask you if it
    would allow you todo your job. I asked straight what one is more fragile.”

    Uh lets get one thing straight here Mr. Ohio Ham. You are in no position to demand anything. You got the answer that I CHOOSE to give you, Mr. Ohio Ham, and that is all you get. As far as to whom I think I am typing to I am typing to a self-important techno geek who thinks that he had the right to dictate an answer.

    It doesn’t work that way here.

    “Ok just because it is more fragile does not mean you will not b using it for other reasons like a software requirement todo your job. Accepting is fragile state is key to understanding why particular groups hate it and prefer operating from OS X and Linux. Linux and OS X people accept that at times there OS don’t have all the applications users want.”

    Hallelujah.
    Mr Ohio Ham finally agrees with a point that I have been making all along – That People run applications and not operating systems, and that as long as the OS effectively supports those applications, it does its job and that’s all that counts.

    The reality is, Mr. Ohio Ham, that most of the windows haters are already pre-disposed to do so for reasons that have nothing to do with the technical. These are the same people who will band-aid around the stupidities of linux and fragilities of Linux as a desk top while raking windows over the coals for technical offences that are in the end far less severe than those in linux. These are the people who will tell to my face how some open source clone of a closed source application is a perfectly good substitute. Even when I demonstrate it will cost me extra effort to use it, they will dismiss my concerned and assure me that they can show me how to make FOSS on linux work from me. And then there are those like you, who simply say “Man up soldier…” to my objections, as if that is a real answer!
    The fact is Mr. Ohio Ham , to my experience desktop Linux is demonstrably far more fragile.

    Ask the veterans of the infamous Ubuntu “Biannual forced death march” just how robust their system is.

    You yourself have posted in your more candid moments how fragile it is, if only to make the excuse that it is getting better.

    Am I wrong, sir?

  2. oiaohm says:

    oiaohm
    “Please stop attempting to blame users for crashing the OS and being upset because it crashing as their fault. The fault should not be in the OS in the first place.”
    oldman
    “Who said I was blaming anybody Mr Ohio Ham. I was stating the fact of my experience.”

    It was in your undertone so you did oldman. You are blame those who have trouble with the undertone in your words.

    The way you are writing it is that “you are having no issue other than what you have caused” this in undertone equals “everyone who is having problems is their fault due to not avoid issues due to issues they are having happen they had to caused them happen” is what you are suggesting by writing your person experiences the way you are. This is not the case. Not everyone knows they are going to trigger some exotic action so fail.

    Yes this should explain why Linux people do take such offence to you at times oldman. You are not watching the undertones in your words so you insult them. Maybe it was not your goal.

    Your English Skill is not good enough to express yourself correctly oldman is what I presume. So you are not aware you are directly insulting people.

    Please note I have top marks in every single english comprehension test I ever took. So yes reading and understand undertones is something I do perfectly get. I exceed PHD level tests at comprehension. Yes trying to correct my english took me into university level language study. I guess you will find that funny oldman. That someone could do university language studies and pass yet still sux at writing english normally. Yes its the most insane bit of paper I have on the wall is a BA in it.

    This is why a person poor at english is going to rip you to shreds for poor english in other areas of english. The bugger studied it all.

    Some people say in undertone what they are really thinking without noticing either.

    Really I think it would be fun to sit you down with a BA level comprehension test and see how far you get oldman particularly in the basic undertones section. I do suspect you would do poorly.

    “The correct answer is which runs the applications with the combination of function and feature that I have determine makes me productive in the tasks that I have to perform in my Job. ”

    Please avoiding the question who do you think you are typing to here.

    What one is more fragile. I did not ask you if it would allow you todo your job. I asked straight what one is more fragile.

    You don’t want to admit that Windows is more fragile in lots of places.

    Ok just because it is more fragile does not mean you will not be using it for other reasons like a software requirement todo your job. Accepting is fragile state is key to understanding why particular groups hate it and prefer operating from OS X and Linux. Linux and OS X people accept that at times there OS don’t have all the applications users want.

    “Then why do you use Linux?”

    Number 1 no autorun weaknesses from USB keys to worry about and other removeable media. It really simple to set no execution from media under Linux. So I don’t end up being a infection source for many different computers.

    Number 2 the tools I use like cfengine run faster on Linux even when configuring remote Windows boxes. Reason Linux sends network traffic better.

    Number 3 I don’t run into issues of a run away program causing the complete computer to blue or red screen of death and reboot. Yes I have had this under Windows 7 . Yes termination of a process is annoying but you can get out the other side. Basically MS need to fix memory management a little and handling run out of memory cleaner. Yes I do have a habit from time to time running programs that use massive lots of ram. This is also why cgroups are handy for setting order of termination.

    Number 4 Means to run my hardware until failure while remaining on the latest OS. So cost savings.

    They would be just the top 4. I could go out to at least 25 of them. Note my processor in desktop does not have virtualisation instructions. So it test over on the blade if I have to use a virtual machine requiring virtualisation instructions.

  3. I think it would be more correct to say that some disagree what the status quo is. Some say GNU/Linux has failed on the desktop and others are deploying them by the thousands. Some say GNU/Linux has seriously lost share on servers and others deploy hundreds of thousands of them. Some say that other OS is easy to use and an aid to productivity but I have seen people in tears because that other OS lost their work or just won’t run and I’ve read of employees suing their employers over Vista. Some say “7” is absolutely wonderful but I have seen it run slowly on a machine where XP was marginally acceptable and GNU/Linux danced.

    I think it is bigotry to say that a particular way to run IT is the right one. Clearly it’s not. My wife would murder me if I decided to replace working PCs every 3 years just because they are no longer state of the art or pay hundreds of dollars to get M$’s latest OS working on current PCs. That’s just not on. People who budget $1000 plus to manage each PC are nuts if they think the world should run that way. There are 1500 million PCs running, more or less, and $1000 per is $1500 trillion.

    The whole world spends $3600 billion on IT annually for buying, maintaining and replacing 1500 million PCs and hundreds of millions of servers, about $1800 per machine per annum, yet the French police were able to go from buying 12-15K software licences annually to a few dozen by using GNU/Linux and saving $millions per annum. Clearly a lot of money is wasted in IT. I hate waste. A lot of people cannot afford waste either. It just makes no sense to spend more money than is required to do the job.

  4. oldman says:

    “Please stop attempting to blame users for crashing the OS and being upset because it crashing as their fault. The fault should not be in the OS in the first place.”

    Who said I was blaming anybody Mr Ohio Ham. I was stating the fact of my experience.

    If you or Pog cant handle that experience, that is your problem not mine.

  5. oldman says:

    “oldman really state true-fully want one is more Fragile a Linux desktop or a Windows Desktop.”

    The correct answer is which runs the applications with the combination of function and feature that I have determine makes me productive in the tasks that I have to perform in my Job.

    For me the answer could be either windows or OS X. Since OS X only runs officially on apple hardware which I personally consider too expensive for what you get, the answer is then windows.

    “Basically you are failing to allocate blame for defect correctly. ”

    “There is such thing as being truthful to yourself about the quality or lack of quality of the tools you are using.”

    Then why do you use Linux?

    Nope, you left out the second half of my sentence where I acknowledged that the problems were cause by some piece of exotic code. The version of windows at that time (windows 95) was more fragile. Such problems were fixed once I got myself a test workstation to try out the wierd stuff on.

    And BTW once I moved to windows NT workstation 4 and was introduced to VMWare workstation, I never had problems with exotic code again.

  6. Wahoo says:

    Businesses are not so autocratic when it comes to missing targets and wreaking havoc ala’ your Munich example. I do not think that you are very familiar with how things work inside a big company.

    I don’t suppose that there is any reference available for the “country” that converted to Linux in 8 hours. The whole country?

  7. oldman says:

    “Basically it was toughen up solider.”

    I’m sure that must appeal to a bully like you Mr. ohio ham. And I am sure like would be so easy if you didnt have to deal with those pesky users who have the temerity not to want to have their productivity compromised because you have a personal vendetta for a particular company.

    Personally, I would survive if some one coerced me on to a linux desktop because I already use it. Of course some of the tasks that I perform would take longer to do because I would either get back into the habit of expending effort hunting through the FOSS junk pile for a tool or some code to reinvent the wheel that was taken away from me.

    But I know a lot of other people who are very capable at their jobs who would suffer, all because bigots like you cant handle the status quo.

  8. oiaohm says:

    Wahoo big thing I know of some businesses who have complete no clue how much is Linux.

    Thin clients Linux but the OS displayed windows.

    Webservers Linux. Some processing applications Linux.

    Munich is in fact a very budget safe path. They replaced 1 item at a time. So no more closed source desktop programs on Windows before even starting the Linux desktop migration Wahoo.

    If you want scary you look at the The French police they just decided one day and was about 90 percent threw migration in 4 months. Basically it was toughen up solider.

    There is one country that did it faster than even that. 8 hours from Windows to Linux. And they are still running Linux.

    Just think if someone pulls that on you. Wahoo go home from work turn up the next day and everything is Linux. No talk about it. Just done and you are now told those who don’t like it there is the door. Kinda cures the complainers problem that slows down most migrations progress.

    There are Linux migrations done at all kinds of speeds. Munich complete time has been lower cost than if they had stayed Microsoft. Even with all the work.

    Most likely I would say Munich model has the least risk of disruption.

  9. Nonsense. Businesses are very autocratic.

    Change brings innovation. It separates the old guard from the future.

    Reward. I like that. I call it price/performance ratio. People and organizations who do migrate to GNU/Linux get more IT for the same money or the same IT for less money or some combination. They get that performance for less effort and it is open-ended. No worrying about what M$ will do in a few years. No worrying about malware. No worrying about having to replace perfectly good equipment before it dies.

  10. Wahoo says:

    The large majority of business look ahead and make a rational choice to stay with what they have. Change brings uncertainty and change is to be avoided unless there is a significant reward to be obtained.

    Autocratic organizations, such as government departments or even schools, where the autocrat has some identifiable interest in something, say cost savings on licenses, may elect to dictate change as was done in the Munich episode you cite. I think that anyone in a big company that tried to do the same thing and suffered through the same sort of results would have been dismissed long before the amount of time that has been spent there and order would have been quickly restored.

    It is easy to tighten the belt when someone else is wearing it, the old joke goes, and that seems to be the case with many of these migrations. When you add them all together, too, it is a very small part of overall PC software business.

  11. oldman wrote, “No one is going to abandon a working set of software just because of geek issues like it.”

    I did. Munich did. The French police did. Extremadura did. Brazil did. Russia is in the process. China did. They all did it for different reasons: cost, independence, building the local economy, security, etc.

    Some people will just keep walking until they fall off the end of the dock. Others look ahead and make a rational choice to change.

  12. oiaohm says:

    oldman really state true-fully want one is more Fragile a Linux desktop or a Windows Desktop.

    Forgot the configuration issues oldman.

    You will find stuff like KDE is less fragile so can be abused more and keep on going.

    This is the problem. Oldman. Linux people get use to a system that is less fragile so when they come back to something like windows that just because you do something in the wrong order it don’t work right drives them nuts.

    Oldman remember Linux people become untrained from avoiding defects that will send windows to hell. Since there interfaces does not have those defects.

    You bad use IT terms is what make your unable to really compare. ie “I made it crash no” is not correct. I found a defect that cause a crash is the correct answer.

    “I make it” make the presume you are to blame. When the OS maker or software is to blame for the defect existing. You end up with the problem wrong in your mind because you are using the wrong words oldman.

    Basically you are failing to allocate blame for defect correctly. This is why you need to go read Operating design or Program design or QA process books.

    You should not be getting these basics wrong oldman.

    Basics of technology language you are getting wrong oldman.

    I am not saying that people will abandon working with a OS or program because they have to work around issue. There is such thing as being truthful to yourself about the quality or lack of quality of the tools you are using.

    Yes I have used cheap junk screw drivers to undo screws and they got the job done other than being careful not to apply too much force. Reason why I could not undo some of the tigher screws was the lower quality tool I was using.

    This is truthful oldman.

    Please stop attempting to blame users for crashing the OS and being upset because it crashing as their fault. The fault should not be in the OS in the first place.

  13. oldman says:

    “Please go read some of the OS design books. You will find that you are not meant to trust the user. The user should not be able to crash the os. If they can it a defect in the OS.”

    What some writer of a theoretical design book thinks is really irrelevant to practice Mr. Ohio Ham. As far as the ad hominem statement about how an os should perform, get real buddy. IN the case described, we are talking about 16 years ago. Main stream personal computer desktop technology was more fragile in general, especially when pushed by a power user like myself. In most cases, mine included, it worked and worked well.

    Talking about what an OS should and should not to is as far as I am concerned irrelevant. No one is going to abandon a working set of software just because of geek issues like it.

  14. oiaohm says:

    oldman
    “BTW how much innovation have you driven with your 12 year old personal desktop Mr. Ohio Ham?”

    Good question other than insult. Almost none. Reason most of processing does not happen on my desktop. That is what the blade server box is for.

    Yes guess what machine goes on the internet. The 12 year old one where I am not processing critical data.

    My desktop might be cheap but my decanted data processing system is not.

    My 12 year old machine is good of a few things you don’t have to cope with oldman. Stupid as it sounds when I replace this box I will most likely have to buy another the same processing power level. Most likely arm smaller more compact but I will require it.

    Some of my setups run on solar and other renewables. Every watt counts oldman. So you need everything to run as effectively as able. Yes dropping graphic cards out of servers and removing need of conventional monitor from server saves power.

    So yes a lot of items tested on this 12 year old box have ended up in new arm hardware once the bugs are out of it from a gui point of view.

    “You confuse quantity with quality. Remember it has to come from somewhere, and its people like me.
    Without people like me us you wouldnt have that cheap fast technology. It would’nt even get created!”

    oldman if you look at arm license pricing and other soc part pricing for it there is no mark up for using the latest. Old and new you will be hit the same. It a few cents per unit in most cases. This is why companies stop using old arm designs so much. It cost them the same to run a new arm design as a old in license fees that funds development.

    Most of the funding for arm develop comes from those buying the bottom end stuff. Where people like you oldman would have been spending a lot more on high end x86 power and others.

    Yes Desktop PC world paying premium idea exists when you get into embedded devices paying a premium idea does not exist.

    Yes paying for a samsung tablet, Motorola Xoom or a apple ipad the same amount of money go to future hardware development. In fact if those 100 dollar units have the same IP parts in them the same amount goes to future development.

    Top and bottom in embedded devices fund progress equally.

    oldman
    “The problem is my windows 9x box didn’t crash unless I made it crash”
    Please go read some of the OS design books. You will find that you are not meant to trust the user. The user should not be able to crash the os. If they can it a defect in the OS.

    None of this I made it crash. Because you should not have been able to in the ideal OS. Is there such thing as the ideal OS. No the ideal OS has not been made yet.

    oldman not to be mean some of the education software out there most likely makes some what you called exotic code and betas look sane yet they are released as production ready code.

  15. oldman says:

    “In what way is an OS frequently crashing “staying out of the way”?

    The problem is my windows 9x box didn’t crash unless I made it crash, which I did occasionally by dint of testing exotic code and beta’s. On the other hand my machine was also a pre integrated pre configured Dell, not some white box piece of crap.

  16. The OS did not stay out of the way. It’s the reason I came to GNU/Linux. In what way is an OS frequently crashing “staying out of the way”?

    see Lose ’95 crash in Bill Gates’ face.

    If Bill Gates had to endure that, do you think I and my students should have had to endure it?

  17. oldman says:

    “I never did receive an apology from M$ for thousands of BSODs, freezes and re-re-reboots I endured while using their software, just demands for more money.”

    None was needed IMHO. The applications worked as needed the OS stayed out of the way. That all haty counts.

  18. aikiwolfie says:

    @Phenom: Apple use a completely different battery technology in their “iDevices” to that of standard laptops or smart phones. It’s that different battery technology that gives their devices a longer lasting charge. Not the OS.

  19. End-users don’t normally drive innovation. They respond to it. That’s why M$ is stalled. FLOSS can innovate faster than M$ because M$ has too much baggage. Of course, if M$ chucked the baggage, they would be more innovative but lost in the crowd of innovative companies.

    oldman, for big OEMs and ISVs to notice end-users, there have to be millions of them. With FLOSS one is still able to cut out all the middlemen and talk with the folks actually writing the software, unlike M$ and partners. But then, with FLOSS there is something to talk about, the code and how it works. With that other OS you have to pay for the privilege of being ignored. M$ pays more attention to advertising “focus” groups than end-users. I never did receive an apology from M$ for thousands of BSODs, freezes and re-re-reboots I endured while using their software, just demands for more money.

  20. No. I am old and have thick fingers. Young people with sharp eyes and supple fingers have no problem at all doing magic with these things. I was out with my son a fair bit the last few months. He uses his smart phone for e-mail, GPS navigation, a flashlight, a camera, maintaining a couple of servers, buying stuff, locating suppliers, researching purchases, news, weather,,, oh, and he talks with it. He can do magic with a desktop/notebook PC, too, but he cannot carry one around. The only time he doesn’t stick with the smart phone is when he is at work and he needs a lot of windows (generic kind, he uses GNU/Linux like most of his co-workers). His siblings and cousins are much the same. One of my daughters has nothing but a smart phone. She’s in college. My son rarely uses a “PC” at home. Another daughter has a smart phone and a PC. She does use the PC for college assignments.

    I did use a smart phone briefly before my wife snatched it away. Actually it was hers but she slept late… For a single window, they are OK but I have to peek around my glasses close up to read. For me, they would be a fine gadget to check wireless network signal strength or maybe do some computing in the bush but little else. If I were young again it would be a different story.

  21. oldman says:

    “the smart thingies have hundreds of millions of units out there and they are not going away”

    No its not going away, but its not going to be used the way that you think.

    You would understand this in a minute if you actually attempted to use a tablet or a smart phone as you primary computing device as I have.

    Care to take the challenge?

  22. oldman says:

    “Guess what one sells mountains more and really drives the market.”

    You confuse quantity with quality. Remember it has to come from somewhere, and its people like me.
    Without people like me us you wouldnt have that cheap fast technology. It would’nt even get created!

    “So thank you for being the crash test dummy for everyone else oldman.”

    You’re welcome. It has by the way paid well through the years as I have had always the horsepower to do my job that people, like you I’ll bet, who cheap jacked it didn’t.

    BTW how much innovation have you driven with your 12 year old personal desktop Mr. Ohio Ham?

  23. oiaohm says:

    oldman it is under 10 percent of customers who want the newest and greatest.

    In fact oldman you don’t drive the market at all.

    Have you not noticed you have high performing and cheap versions of everything oldman. Yes the 10 percent of the newest and greatest, the cheap versions are the bread and butter of the industry. Guess what one sells mountains more and really drives the market.

    People wanting the latest and greatest are great guinea pigs. So thank you for being the crash test dummy for everyone else oldman.

    350 million copies Phenom sounds like a lot until you put it into context of how much market share of the New PC market that is. That is less than 50 percent of the machines produced in that time frame. Yes this is the shocking number history MS Windows was over 70 percent in new sales.

    So yes volume has increase market share decreased.

    “Their iPads are at the same price-tag as good Android tablets.”

    In fact this is no. An Android tablet direct from Hong Kong at worst is a 100 dollars less landed than a ipad acquire online or by retail even Motorola Xoom.

    The reason why in shops Ipad and Android tablets are the same money is retail mark up. Yes the ones selling you that android tablet more expensive than Ipad have in fact put more mark up on it

    There is also another problem with the netbook disappearing problem. Phenom. Most claims of that are not adding in smartbooks. Basically insert a mobile phone network interface into the device and its not longer a netbook.

    Netbook term did not have a screen size define either. MS added that. Yes MS carefully altered the netbook term to segment it market to reduce it numbers as well. Cannot beat them alter the term.

    This was like smart phone must have touch screen usable with finger. So all the phones using stylists at the time that were cheaper phones got removed from the smart phone count even if they were running the same OS as the smart phones that were being counted.

  24. How many are you, oldman? Last time I checked there were billions of people on the planet and almost half have access to some IT. Hundreds of millions of units were bought by somebody in the past year that did not run Wintel. If you are driving the market in a different direction, expect to go off the rails. A lot of people still love the old formats. I do. But if M$ has the lock on those boxes, I can do without. A new generation of users of IT agree with that. Most are consumers. Many are young or poor. They will find someone to supply them if M$’s partners won’t. Unlike the netbook which got only a few tens of millions ahead of M$, the smart thingies have hundreds of millions of units out there and they are not going away. The IT pie is growing and M$’s share is shrinking.

  25. oldman says:

    “Problem here oldman you are the 10 percent.”

    Actually, its more like 20% and unfortunately for you we DRIVE the market with our purchases, not you!

  26. Phenom says:

    Yeah, right, Pogson. 350 million copies by April 2011.
    http://news.softpedia.com/news/Record-350-Million-Windows-7-Copies-Sold-in-18-Months-196681.shtml

    MS paid nothing to OEMs to install XP on netbooks. They paid MS a license fee, even a minimal one. Still huge commercial success when you sell an almost 10-year old product.

    Netbooks are in decline, as they fight for niche with tablets. A good tablet is no worse than a regular netbook. Only more expensive, but people seem to pay the extra price to have the fancy gadget.

    There we are yet to see what will happen, but I will be careful to make bold predictions. Apple still rules there and shows no signs of a decline. Their iPads are at the same price-tag as good Android tablets. Why should users then select an Android-based device, unless they are anti-apple fanatics?

  27. I don’t think so.
    – M$ is advertising “7” like mad because it’s not selling well.
    – M$ had to pay OEMs $1billion to install XP on netbooks.
    – Now that XP is dead, netbooks are in decline.
    – Netbooks had months free rein in the market. Android will have years before “8” arrives.

    Android/Linux is a much tougher nut to crack because OEMs have tasted high margins for years, Why should they go back to tiny margins with M$? M$ folds when there is competition. That’s why they have been using illegal means to stifle competition.

  28. Phenom says:

    So what, Pogs. MS will beat the crap out of Linux on ARM just the same way it did on Netbooks.

  29. I have a two-year-old system that runs 95W just for the CPU…

    The same things that can be used to reduce power consumption in x86 can also reduce power consumption in ARM so Intel is not getting ahead of them yet. In a few years both systems will be using negligible power but ARM will get there first. Judging by market acceptance of smart thingies and the lag in x86 markets, people prefer ARM on that score. Low power has many other advantages: more portability, smaller size, lower weight and lower cost.

  30. oiaohm says:

    oiaohm
    “Also its a question oldman with performance increases in chips that happen every year how long before the 100 dollar or lower device meets the requirement.”

    oldman
    “My suspicion is that the answer to that is “never””

    You have forgot calculators and mobile phones.

    “Now if you are the type of person who can live technologically “in the past” then you may actually be able to take advantage of the declining cost curve.

    Most people, however will probably just go for the next best thing IMHO.”

    The big thing here is the biggest volumes of calculators and mobile phones sold are not the next best thing. They are the affordable ones that get the job done. Like not everyone needs a scientific calculator.

    Already with XP we have seen the desktop hit what is saturation point in many markets. Problem here oldman is that saturation point does not happen if there is not requirement level for function to suite people needs.

    Yes where sales in many markets have slowed down to replacing just the machines that have died. This is normal saturation point action.

    Mobile phones have not hit saturation point yet. The general PC has.

    The serous question is will the mobile phone do to the PC what mobile phone doing to the calculator. Yes more and more people are using the calculator program in there mobile phone than a real calculator.

    Yes saturation point proves a line in sand oldman.

    The people wanting the latest and greatest all the time is the minority oldman in all markets. The common is the ones who want enough computer power to get the job done.

    Less than 10 percent of the market want the latest and greatest oldman. The other over 90 percent are after items to get the job done. The question is when can the 90 percent get what they need from there settop box’s, TV’s and portable devices that are cheap so the don’t need expensive MS stuff.

    Problem here oldman you are the 10 percent.

    Wahoo
    “If you look at the evidence of how people in the emerging countries behave once they attain some affluence, it seems likely that they will look for more of everything in a PC rather than austerity.”

    Yep I have. Status symbol mobile phone does not matter if it works or not is true in a lot of emerging countries. Portable devices you can show off with are more important than desktop stuck at home.

    Then how many buy a phone in our world as a status symbol. This is why a phone over lapping with desktop can become a large problem quickly.

    Same with portable computers. Third world portable computer devices(mobile phones, netbooks and laptops) are bling.

    Remember in some countries a working TV is a status item as well. Difference here the TV has to work the other portable bling items don’t have to work to be status.

    Desktop PC is never bling. This is why the time of the Desktop is partly numbered for most users. Yes part of the reason why sales of laptops is so high. They are bling.

    Yes the bling point is also why people do not care about android devices not running the latest and greatest as well. It look cool that is all that is important.

    Yes the bling issue effects all markets.

    Ubuntu has changed it future road map to cover set top boxes and mobile phones. Expect in the next 12 months see other distrobutions to follow suit.

    The writing it on the wall about what is happening. Powerful portable devices are in. Lot of desktop locked is out. Other than the entertainment system.

    Yes I do wonder how long before game stations are PVR’s and TV tuners as well.

    Yes I do expect some point in the near future TV like screens to be your only non portable computer based hardware in most house holds other than internet connection devices. Since the TV will be able to play games and do everything else that you don’t do in a portable device.

  31. oldman says:

    “The old-fashioned desktop has advantages because the technology is simple and easy to access but it is bulky, heavy and uses too much power.”

    Nope. x86 Desktop and laptop designs of today still use far less power than their predecessors while still keeping up with the new function and feature available in modern software running on modern OS’s. There is zero reason go give up the function of classical x86 systems in favor of your IMHO cheap crappy pc’s.

  32. lpbbear says:

    “That reminds of a picture I saw in National Geographic a few weeks ago. The column was about Mongolia, and the migration of shepherds (whose flocks have died of cold) to the capital in search of better life, who still live in tents in the outskirts of the town. The picture showed the father of a family of four, watching video with his daughter on an… iPhone.”

    Nice how you make Pogs argument for him. 🙂

    (genius this one)

  33. Whahoo wrote, “never-ending increase in PC computing power, storage capability, display enrichment, and overall responsiveness.”

    Nope. Every release of that other OS that I have seen has been slower than the preceding release since XP, anyway. I only used NT when XP came along. The hardware has become faster no doubt but M$ has squandered it relentlessly. Impoverished people can barely afford any IT let alone multiple systems. They certainly will want the best bang for the buck and that is not with Wintel. The old-fashioned desktop has advantages because the technology is simple and easy to access but it is bulky, heavy and uses too much power.

  34. How cute. IT is useful in emerging economies for the same reason it is useful here. It’s the fastest way to create, find, change and distribute information. It saves a ton of time and energy to browse the web than to walk ten miles into town. You can bet your boots that small cheap computers are more appropriate technology than what you promote and entrepreneurs in emerging economies know it.

  35. oldman says:

    “Many parts of the world have little electricity and st they mall homes. They like small and efficient things.”

    The non affluent will always be limited in what they can afford. In such a context it seems to me that, computing is going to be more of a luxury not a necessity.

    It is also a reality that while retailers are probably not going to be tailoring their offerings specifically for this class of computer consumer. THey will have to make due with the techno “leavings”
    created for the more affluent.

  36. Phenom says:

    That reminds of a picture I saw in National Geographic a few weeks ago. The column was about Mongolia, and the migration of shepherds (whose flocks have died of cold) to the capital in search of better life, who still live in tents in the outskirts of the town. The picture showed the father of a family of four, watching video with his daughter on an… iPhone.

    Even poor ex-shepherds won’t touch linux devices…

  37. Wahoo says:

    The history of personal computing has been a never-ending increase in PC computing power, storage capability, display enrichment, and overall responsiveness. At every step along the way, the lure of better experience has overwhelmed the thought of minimal cost.

    If you look at the evidence of how people in the emerging countries behave once they attain some affluence, it seems likely that they will look for more of everything in a PC rather than austerity.

    Everyone in these countries may end up with a smart phone as predicted, but they will have a laptop and a table to go along with them. Probably an iPod, too.

  38. Phenom says:

    I don’t know Pogs. Ubuntu, for example, is less power-efficient than Windows 7, and that has been proved. i-devices have among the best battery life than their android counterparts.

    On BUILD 2011 MS also emphasised on more efficient power management. And 8 will work on ARM, too.

    I don’t know why you keep linking MS closely to Intel, when MS is clearly seeking (and already found) a way on ARM.

  39. …or not.

    Many parts of the world have little electricity and small homes. They like small and efficient things. x86 and that other OS are not small and efficient. Where I worked last year was like that. The most likely new PC to be encountered was a netbook because people bought them second-hand for ~$100 or even received them as gifts. They could also fit in the backpack and go anywhere. Wintel was not what they wanted but what was forced on them by retailers.

  40. oldman says:

    “In five years the number of people owning a personal computer of some kind will double and they have no affiinity for that other OS, x86 or bulky boxes.”

    Again, Pog, you make the assumption that you target population will remain fat dumb and happy doing all of their computing using your small cheap (IMHO small crappy) computers, and that they will just completely ignore the whole spectrum of commercial closed software based on x86 technology.

    It IS possible that this will be the case, but it is more likely that as the those areas of the world become more affluent, they too will wish to take advantage the same software that the developed world offers, and I am definitely sure that the vendors of closed source commercial software will come to terms with that new market.

  41. lpbbear says:

    No matter what the “true beLIEver” in M$FT thinks the world is changing and his narrow minded bigoted ideas of what constitutes a “computer” are gradually giving way to new approaches many of which will offer zero financial benefit to Microsoft.
    More and more I am seeing the changes manifest themselves among my immediate family members and friends by their use of Android based smart phones and tablets. Some of them no longer even use a computer….at all. At least in the traditional sense of the “desktop” style of computer Microsoft’s revenue base is chained to. They do absolutely every computer based task on these devices with no need of a full desktop.
    For myself, I prefer using the old behemoth desktop, just not into smart phones and all that scene. Unlike the “true beLIEver” I’m not letting my personal preferences blind myself to whats going on. The times are a changin’ and Microsoft is way behind the curve on this change. I doubt they will ever catch up to Google no matter how many corrupt politicians they bribe nor how many bullshit patent lawsuits they file.

  42. I need a monitor, keyboard and mouse. A good tablet has USB connectors that can hook those up to the Linux kernel. I am running fine now on a terminal server and a ~$100 thin client. The only problems I have are poor video and lack of Chrome browser. I can move to another computer if I need those. My TV is hooked to an Atom if I want video. I can live with FireFox/iceweasel. My $100 thin client could easily be replaced by a smart thingy.

  43. oldman wrote, “Most people, however will probably just go for the next best thing IMHO.”

    That may be true in mature markets, but most people on Earth do not own a PC and the small cheap computers are becoming affordable to almost anyone. In five years the number of people owning a personal computer of some kind will double and they have no affiinity for that other OS, x86 or bulky boxes.

  44. oldman says:

    “Also its a question oldman with performance increases in chips that happen every year how long before the 100 dollar or lower device meets the requirement.”

    My suspicion is that the answer to that is “never”

    Why?

    Because what can be accomplished with a computing device will increase in complexity across the spectrum of computing devices.

    For example, the word processing capabilities of your average feature phone of today are probably superior to those of wordstar or Word 3.x. of 20+ years ago, only the most masochistic of users would attempt to use a feature phone for word processing.

    Now if you are the type of person who can live technologically “in the past” then you may actually be able to take advantage of the declining cost curve.

    Most people, however will probably just go for the next best thing IMHO.

  45. oiaohm says:

    “Price reductions are limited by commodity/component and labour prices.”

    Really when it comes to production in china. Labour prices are becoming more and more replaced with power bill.

    Components arm chips designs don’t increase in price. With advances in chip production methods you normally end up needing less silicon and materials to make the next arm chip. With arm SOC design production costs in 12 months time most likely will not move a cent.

    But what can be packaged up for the same dollar will increase.

    “Anyone who truly needs computing power will not just settle for anything less than what they need.”

    Really there is a good question here oldman one I don’t have the answer to.

    How much computing power does the population truly need and want? This would be a demographics class question as well with percentages wanting different thing including some overlap.

    If it turns out to be the 80 20 as seen in company desktops or worse this does spell future problems for Microsoft.

    Also its a question oldman with performance increases in chips that happen every year how long before the 100 dollar or lower device meets the requirement.

    We are going threw the same cycle as calculators with desktop computers. You remember the old ones that cost thousands of dollars. Now the common calculators that most of the population wantted is under 20 dollars. Finally calculators are being replaced by the next tech mobile phones.

    100 dollar and less computer price is getting into the zone there is not going to be much profit for MS.

  46. oldman says:

    I think that this is wishful thinking on your part Pog. Anyone who truly needs computing power will not just settle for anything less than what they need. They will pay the delta as needed.

    It would be interesting to see how you would fare if your computing platform was limited to the function of one of those cheap tablets. Based on my own experiences with what is considered the “best” of current tablet technology, I don’t think that you would be very happy IMHO.

  47. Price reductions are limited by commodity/component and labour prices. More importantly, the number of humans who will be able to use IT will probably double next year and most will want small and cheap.

  48. oiaohm says:

    Robert Pogson I think you missed something.

    http://www.raspberrypi.org/?p=284

    Yes a 25 to 35 dollar computing unit getting a best hardware design in show at the biggest arm tech show there is.

    Now this has thrown down the challenge for next year.

    MS model rule is max price can be about 10 percent of the value of the device. Hmm 2 to 4 dollars for a copy of windows sound very good for us. For MS bottom line not that good at all.

    Of course the 25 to 35 dollar machine is not that functional to most of our standards. But what is that same price bracket going to look like by the end of next year.

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