“7” Adoption Flattens

  • 2011-10-20 “over 450 million licences sold since launch”
  • 2011-7-21 “over 400 million licenses and business deployments continue to accelerate”
  • 2011-4-28 “fastest selling operating system in history with 350 million licenses sold”
  • 2011-1-27 “over 300 million Windows 7 licenses”
  • 2010-10-28 “a healthy and sustaining business PC refresh cycle”
  • 2010-7-22 “sold more than 175 million licenses to date”
  • 2010-4-22 “continues to be a growth engine”
  • 2010-1-28 “This is a record quarter for Windows units”
  • 2009-10-23 “pleased by the early positive response we are receiving for these products”

Release date was 2009-19-20. One picture is worth a thousand words so,.

That’s not accelerating growth folks. It has flattened considerably to about 50million per quarter when the world is selling 90million PCs per quarter, about 55% attachment rate. What’s on those other PCs? It can’t be Vista because the webstats say it’s in decline. It can’t be XP because the webstats say it’s in decline. It can’t be MacOS because Apple is shipping only 4.3% of the world’s notebook/desktop PCs. That leaves GNU/Linux and FreeDOS, folks.

UPDATE Lenovo ships a bunch of PCs with no OS and discourages people from buying if they have a volume licensing agreement with M$. So, it appears the missing PCs are not getting that treatment from businesses. The mystery deepens.

UPDATE This is a clue. At the bend in the curve sales of PCs with XP and retail sales of Vista were stopped…

Desktop operating systems Date of general availability Retail software end of sales End of sales for PCs with Windows preinstalled
Windows XP December 31, 2001 June 30, 2008 October 22, 2010
Windows Vista January 30, 2007 October 22, 2010 October 22, 2011
Windows 7 October 22, 2009 To be determined To be determined

So Vista has been tapered off for several quarters. It cannot be the cause of the decline… Wait! At the bend in the curve ended sales of PCs with XP installed and end of retail sales of Vista! Now “7” has to go along on its own and it sells fewer PCs as a result.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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7 Responses to “7” Adoption Flattens

  1. twitter says:

    It’s not “piracy” that makes up the difference and the numbers are worse for Microsoft than they appear. Gnu/linux is the OS of choice outside of Windows and it is also the OS of choice to refurbish old computers.

    As for Microsoft’s condition, the last decade of slowing revenues has hit their brain. That’s why they went all out for FUD and lawsuits.

  2. oiaohm says:

    “They have so many $billions in liquid assets that they could live off the interest/dividends for many years even if revenue from operations ceased immediately.”

    Robert Pogson not exactly sure of how long they would last.

    A sudden stop at the moment. MS would make it out the other side maybe but it would not be soft.

    A stop in a few years time with there growing long term debt MS might be stuffed.

    Remember 27 billion a year in operation costs.

    48 billion in liability.

    Total assets about 95 billion when you remove good will.

    Scary enough no sales 2 years MS is dead in water unless they cut operations major-ally. About 8 to 10 billion is research and development to create new product to keep up with competitors.

    Even if they cut to bone under 50 billion is not going hand over 8 to 10 billion to maintain research and development. Basically 6 to 7 years if they drop advertising and just do R&D before they fold.

    Basically MS must get income. If people stopped buying for any reason MS very quickly would be in major money trouble.

    Money wise MS is way worse setup than Sun Micro Systems was so does not have the means to last long without income.

    Redhat is in a better location. Since they could cut from all departments without completely destroying self in market and just focus what ever is paying to live on.

  3. They have so many $billions in liquid assets that they could live off the interest/dividends for many years even if revenue from operations ceased immediately. In fact, the revenue streams are shrinking in share but still growing a bit slower than the market. It’s like an elephant with a tiny wound. It may die in a few weeks from infection without anyone noticing for a while. M$ is so large it takes about 5 years for changes in the environment to reach the brain.

  4. oiaohm says:

    Tommis the key figure is that the numbers are about 55 percent of all PC being made.

    That suggest one huge piracy rate if Linux and other things are not being used.

    Some could be like using Windows 2000 still that had a transferable license.

    Apple numbers are not suggest they are selling a huge ammount of PC’s not enough to account for 45 percent 10 percent yes. So there is 35 percent that we have no clue exactly what it is.

    I already know that I can by laptops from china with Android on it. So yes the question is serous-ally what is that other 35 percent. If it turns out that android is already across 25 percent of all PC sales MS is in real trouble and could be doomed in a few years. Note it was android 2.3 on the laptops from china that is really not designed for large screen operation.

    Microsoft threaten to kill Google. There is every chance Google might kill Microsoft.

    Netbooks where interesting. Most netbooks infact were rarely connected to the internet so did not show up in large numbers. Same would be true on android.

    Really we need to find out what the 35 percent is. It could mean the difference between MS existing short term and not existing short term.

  5. Every country where I have read licensing is an issue has tightened things up. Russia, Brazil and China are moving to GNU/Linux. Look on your retail shelves. How many non-“7” OS do you find?

    M$ cannot have it both ways. If they have a lock on OEMs and retailers, they would be selling almost twice as many licences. M$ is stating that adoption is “accelerating” and yet is not. There is slippage between what M$ is saying and the numbers. If that slippage is real and that large, shouldn’t it be stated in their reports? Are they selling licences for XP and Vista still? I don’t see them anywhere. Here is a site selling that other OS, and they have a few models of Vista. I don’t know anyone who prefers Vista.

  6. Tommis says:

    Keep in mind that those are only about licensed sevens.

  7. oe says:

    Good analysis. I think a lot of “aging out” machines are also getting converted to various flavors of GNU/Linux as well; tailored to their era, and that would inflate the numbers even higher.

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