“8” Not Expected To Take Significant Share Of ARMed Tablets

DisplaySearch has a misleading title and subtitle,
“Tablet PC Architectures Dominated by ARM and iOS; New Kindle Could Light a Fire Under Android

x86 Processors and and Windows 8 Expected to Take Significant Share After 2013”

Just look at their numbers: about 30million units per annum are expected to ship with “8” in 2017 out of 330million tablets expected to ship in 2017. Is less than 10% significant? What does it signify except that “8” is too little and too late? Also ARM on tablets is not showing any sign of slowing down except with iOS: DisplaySearch predicts 80% of tablets shipped in 2011 will have iOS but only 57% in 2017.

I think they are way off on those numbers. iOS will be lucky to ship on 60% of tablets in 2012. There are just too many suppliers of Android/Linux devices which meet people’s needs and more are releasing projects every month. “8” will have similar traction as Phoney “7”. Too little and too late. No one wants to do business with M$ if they have the option and Android/Linux on ARM gives people a viable choice. It’s good for manufacturers and consumers. Even the little suppliers cut out of Apple’s walled garden are ganging up on Apple supplying still more makers of Android/Linux tablets. They see iOS maxing out in 2012 as do I. iOS may see modest growth thereafter but it will be nothing like the past year.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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3 Responses to “8” Not Expected To Take Significant Share Of ARMed Tablets

  1. oiaohm says:

    JairJy 5 years from today is a pretty solid bet.

    How long does R&D take to happen. Like windows 8 will released soon yet the features for windows 9 are already be written.

    Factories don’t come on line over night.

    Its only things like idevices that really hit you from left field. But there effect has a habit of being fleeting.

    2005 predictions were not 100 percent out. The predicted that a Open Source OS to manfactors being symbian or otherwise would start becoming the dominate. And there would be a closed source completion. Yes they got the parties wrong who were providing the OS but the market share breakdown is about expected.

    Ie MS was ment to be the closed source competitor with its phones exchange intergration. Not iphone with its itunes intergration. Motivation information was correct.

    Android instead of Symbian mostly because nokia screwed up the open sourcing process of symbian.

    JairJy 5 years out its 80 to 90 percent exact. 10 to 20 percent for opps we missed that fact and that is swapped in it place.

    Ie tizen might hold more market share in 5 years time than android. But that would be a equal for equal. The predictions become a lot more solid as soon as you delete calling stuff android or OSi. Instead break it down to a Foss vs Closed. So the OSi is the best example of Clossed OS in the mobile phone market today. Android is the best example of a FOSS OS in the phone market today. So they are the best to generate the prediction from.

    Yes taking out the software makers exact product name will take you up into the 95% correct plus.

  2. Agreed. DisplaySearch is watching accumulations of orders for parts and claiming to see into the future on that basis. There may well be ongoing contracts for five years but most likely they are only accurate for a couple of quarters at most. Still, lead time on developing production capacity is important and it does show where the OEMs are headed, if not the consumers. Even just looking at the next couple of years, the predictions are not unreasonable based on what we see from OEMs and, of course, there is nothing but vapourware from M$ and “partners”.

  3. JairJy says:

    Eh… 2017? Technology can’t be predicted with such a long period of time. If you where on 2005 estimating the worldwide marketshare of mobile devices from that time to 2011 you would have never had the idea that there would be iPhone and Android.

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