A large US satellite is predicted to impact Earth sometime in the next 24h. The bulk of the satellite is fluffy and will burn up but a serious amount is expected to strike in pieces up to 158kg at a speed of 44m/s. The trail of large piece could be about 500km long. The probability of you dying from this is pretty low. I suggest a party tonight, just in case. The probability of any human casualty is estimated to be 1 in 3200, and of course that 1 could be any of 7 billion people, so you’re probably OK. Unfortunately, humans are densely concentrated in cities… so it could be 0, 1 or many casualties. We shall see.
Current re-entry time is listed as 3:16 +/- 5h UTC. The most probably impact sites are the centre of Canada, north of me or the southern Indian Ocean. It might be a good night for star-gazing. If you have to go tonight, you might as well have some fun.
UPDATE 2011-9-23 The latest estimates show the thing is heading for M$’s HQ…
ETA 9PM Redmond time. This could make up for all those Patch Tuesday annoyances that they release when convenient in their time zone.
UPDATE NASA says the thing re-entered over the Pacific. Close, but no cigar. There are reports of debris falling on Alberta, Canada.