Sleep Well Tonight/Do You Feel Lucky?

A large US satellite is predicted to impact Earth sometime in the next 24h. The bulk of the satellite is fluffy and will burn up but a serious amount is expected to strike in pieces up to 158kg at a speed of 44m/s. The trail of large piece could be about 500km long. The probability of you dying from this is pretty low. I suggest a party tonight, just in case. The probability of any human casualty is estimated to be 1 in 3200, and of course that 1 could be any of 7 billion people, so you’re probably OK. Unfortunately, humans are densely concentrated in cities… so it could be 0, 1 or many casualties. We shall see.

Current re-entry time is listed as 3:16 +/- 5h UTC. The most probably impact sites are the centre of Canada, north of me or the southern Indian Ocean. It might be a good night for star-gazing. If you have to go tonight, you might as well have some fun.

see http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/585584main_UARS_Status.pdf

UPDATE 2011-9-23 The latest estimates show the thing is heading for M$’s HQ…
ETA 9PM Redmond time. This could make up for all those Patch Tuesday annoyances that they release when convenient in their time zone.

UPDATE NASA says the thing re-entered over the Pacific. Close, but no cigar. There are reports of debris falling on Alberta, Canada.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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7 Responses to Sleep Well Tonight/Do You Feel Lucky?

  1. oiaohm says:

    Nasa track record with big objects coming back to earth they put up there is not good.

    Skylab before this one hit Australia when it was ment to hit ocean. Very big chunks in fact made land fall. Yes Nasa got smarter this time did not promise that it would land safe.

    Question Nasa why can you not fit these big things with demolition split lines of some form. To split them into smaller bit before going splat on the air.

    I would fell a lot happier if they would set a max limit on size of part allowed to hit. Yes something way smaller than what was just dropped in.

    Really doing support a blog like this is release of the anger D-G and Ivan. He would be in more trouble if he was no expressing his hates.

  2. Ivan says:

    The first step to recovery is to admit that you have a problem, Bob.

  3. D-G says:

    Brilliant, Pog! Now you’re trying to convince yourself that your “day job” isn’t hating Microsoft. You even dream of hating Microsoft at night, I believe. If you wouldn’t there wouldn’t be this urge to put your hatred for Microsoft on your blog. Nearly every entry here is littered with Microsoft hate, however far removed the topic may be from Microsoft. You’re obsessed with Microsoft, and yes, you really should go see a therapist.

  4. “old”, I accept gracefully. Poor? No way. I have more than I need of everything. I do need a new motherboard for “Beast” but it’s only laziness that is holding me back and the fact that I have several other lesser computers laying around unused that can do almost everything I need in IT. My background is farming and I have a bit of land and a very promising crop of weeds. What more could I want?

    Bitter? Nope. I have had a good life if it ended tonight. I am at peace with myself and my family. M$ is a nuisance. My day is too full to have M$ take up all my time. In the last couple of days, I whacked a whole bunch of weeds, installed a database of recipes on my LAN, shopped for a new monitor for a second station for the little woman and did some amazing cooking, all without help or hindrance from M$. I am now going out to watch the sky in hope of seeing some fireworks. It would be a bonus if M$’s “7” and “8” got taken out but there just are not enough pieces and they are not moving fast enough to do the job, realistically.

    Good night.

  5. Markus Welby says:

    I was hoping it would drop on your head in the hopes that you would stop all these ridiculous posts that are the rants of an old poor bitter old man.

  6. Ivan says:

    “This could make up for all those Patch Tuesday annoyances that they release when convenient in their time zone.”

    Have you thought about therapy for these vindictive thoughts, Bob?

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