Compal Electronics is a huge manufacturer of electronics in Taiwan but with factories around the world. They make notebooks for many of the big players of IT like Acer, HP, and Dell. Their monthly sales figures and projections are in line with my estimates of how IT is going as far as the PC and tablets are going. 1H 2011 revenue is down 24% (all segments) from 2010. Compal expects to ship 42million notebooks and 3 million tablets in 2011. Tablet shipments are increasing but notebook shipments are not.
With the imminent release of Android 4.0 I see growth in tablets continuing. Since none of Apple’s tablets are made by Compal, I expect Compal’s numbers reflect the situation for Android, about 7% of the number of notebooks shipped will be the number of Android tablets shipped. About 200million notebooks ship annually so about 14million or more Android/Linux tablets should ship. That’s about 30% of projected tablets shipments (52million). While fans may crow that iPad dominates the table market, Apple’s share is soon to drop below 50%. The fact that Android/Linux is shipped by a host of manufacturers does not prevent it’s imminent dominance of the tablet market which should be complete by the end of 2011. It will still be a year or more before “8” emerges on tablets and Android/Linux will have a huge lead by then. Without the “legacy apps” running on ARM, M$ has no inside track on tablets.