UK: iPad Losing Market Share

A recent survey finds:

  • 73% of installed base of tablets are iPads,
  • just over half the potential buyers intend to buy iPads, and
  • “28% of consumers that intend to purchase a tablet in the next year are still undecided about which brand to buy”.

Oops! Even if all the undecided buy iPad the maximum share of future purchases is 78%. That’s not very likely considering the current market share of 73% of installed base. More likely, with the imminent release of Android 4.0/Ice-cream Sandwich, more buyers than ever will choose an Android/Linux tablet. I expect that buyers will choose iPad 50-60% of the time. That’s huge growth for Android/Linux and I have no doubt that in 2012, Android/Linux will displace iOS on the tablets of choice.

see Kantar

Kantar also finds that 50% of smart phones are selling with Android/Linux.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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11 Responses to UK: iPad Losing Market Share

  1. oiaohm says:

    William Tyberius Shatner. There is a major issue here.

    Apple and Blackberry. Normally are just edge players. Due to a temp gap in cheep OS for other hardware makers to use they got a foothold. Blackberry has already worked out being android compatible in the future might save their tail. Unfortunately this is the history of OS/2 Warp.

    Android has quite a well known presence. Windows 8 and Windows Phone will be up against it.

    Also hardware makers will have no interest in paying. If MS wants to accept money for there OS they will have to join apple producing and marketing the hardware.

    William Tyberius Shatner basically answer the question what OS is android replacing.

    Remember there was a OS that cost hardware makers nothing for there devices. That tells what section of the pie Android will get.

  2. I have a master’s in nuclear physics. I well understand quantum mechanics. Everything is chaos in quantum mechanics. Just observing something changes it. Gives new meaning to “reality”. Two photons can “interfere” without being in the same place at the same time… I designed and built nuclear spin filters.

  3. William Tyberius Shatner says:

    Clearly, to many, measurement and describing something by words and numbers has no weight with most of humanity.

    Mostly when the number are vague as they are above.

    Assuming equal desirability of products,

    What is the basis for this assumption? Other than “ICE CREAM SMMICH”? The numbers you provide yourself show that equal desirability of the products cannot be assumed. more than half have decided on one, and more than half of the remainder are undecided.

    Not to mention, you’re ignoring other players in the tablet game, the blackberry Playbook (QNX) for one, and the forthcoming Windows 8 tablets. You’re just assuming that only iPad and android devices exist, and your conclusion in meaningless right off the bat, because it isn’t based in reality.

    the exposure to the market will become eventually something like 1/N where N is the number of choices. We have choices: iOS, Android GNU/Linux. Phoney 7, “8″, MeeGo, GNU/Linux, Symbiant, so N is 5 to 7. If you count the variations that Android/Linux has with customization by various OEMs, N becomes very large and quite a few of the counts are still Android/Linux so Android/Linux wins.

    In practice the market is only devided in two, “iPad” and “not iPad”, the later is then devided in to Windows 8, Phone 7, Blackberry, and various Android devices.

    You’re hindging your argument on the equal desirability of products that are not my any measure equally disirable.

    In practical terms, using the market as is, with no assumptions, the market is only split in two, and the iPad wins on that count. Apple’s marketing strategy of “if you don;t have an iPad, well, you don;t have an iPad” isn’t media brainwashing, it’s leveraging that this is in fact the consumer perception of the tablet market. That’s why the market continues to favour the iPad.

    They do this on OEM and on retailers. If you have N places to shop you likely only go to two or three to make your choice and if they all have Android/Linux and none have iPad, what are you going to choose?

    In practical terms this doesn’t work either. the iPad is one of if not the most disirable gadet out there, most outlets carry it, and even if this were not the case, holding 73% of the market shows that people are willing to go out of their way to buy one.

    BTW, this analysis is similar to how chaotic systems like quantum mechanics work. Everything’s really just a probability.

    QM is only chaotic to the layman sorry, I highly recommend the layman read Stephen Hawking’s literature on the matter, you’ll see what I mean.

    The only way these analytics are similar to Quantum Mechanics is that they employ Quantitative Methods, which shares an acronym.

    While both are voodoo raindances to the layman, Quantitative Methods is a fair deal simpler to grasp, though some people just can;t wrap their minds around it, it’s not uncommon for students at the college level to take the introductory course a few times before passing it.

  4. oiaohm says:

    Contrarian short history. Please go back and read MS Dos vs Apple. Your statements are basically the same thing. Result long term was MS Dos domination.

    Contrarian there is a reason that samsung might simply decide not to make tablets at all. So leaving apple high and dry.

    The battle is truly becoming between those who have the machines to make the hardware. HP has been outsourcing for a long time. Now who they have been outsourcing to are directly selling in the market as well. So of course HP was going to throw in towel.

    Who made most of HP Arm based tech. HTC. Basically HTC entering the direct sales market it was only a matter of time before HP would pull plug. You cannot complete head to head with your supplier. They can always under cut you. HTC might buy webos off HP.

    Apple and Microsoft are last company in the ARM game without a license and plant to make ARM chips and devices themselves.

  5. Contrarian says:

    “iPad will likely sustain a share of the market but it will not dominate”

    Certinly it will dominate, #pogson. The real question is whether it can monopolize. Apple is to the tablet market as IBM was to the PC market, only a lot more seminal. iPad is the standard of comparison and is setting the price. All others are competing solely on price reductions and end up competing with one another, driving themselves into the poor house. HP has already tossed in the towel. Samsung gets a chunk of iPad sales anyway, since they are supplying many of the parts. Everyone else is adding the costs of litigation to their already high costs of manufacturing and how long will it be before they decide that this dog is not going to hunt?

  6. I agree with your first two points but disagree with the third. I expect 90% of blog authours are clueless. Just look at the comments here. Most disagree on the facts, their interpretation and the importance of everything. Clearly, to many, measurement and describing something by words and numbers has no weight with most of humanity.

    The point here is how far the “early leader” will fall. Assuming equal desirability of products, the exposure to the market will become eventually something like 1/N where N is the number of choices. We have choices: iOS, Android GNU/Linux. Phoney 7, “8”, MeeGo, GNU/Linux, Symbiant, so N is 5 to 7. If you count the variations that Android/Linux has with customization by various OEMs, N becomes very large and quite a few of the counts are still Android/Linux so Android/Linux wins. They do this on OEM and on retailers. If you have N places to shop you likely only go to two or three to make your choice and if they all have Android/Linux and none have iPad, what are you going to choose?

    BTW, this analysis is similar to how chaotic systems like quantum mechanics work. Everything’s really just a probability.

  7. William Tiberius Shatner wrote, “I don’t see how you figure that there’s that much of a correlation between the current market share and the potential market share of future buyers”.

    It’s a social thing. Once there is a reasonable installed base out there, consumers who see what the Jones’ have will want the same. It’s like an advertising campaign that grows exponentially. It becomes controlling, over-ruling common sense and seeking/comparing particular features. iPad continues to do well in large part because it had no competition for a while. Android/Linux had to start from far back and establish its own installed base the hard way. Now Android/Linux has caught the wave. The difference between the market dynamics of Android/Linux and iPad is the huge advantage Android/Linux has in retail outlets. iPad will likely sustain a share of the market but it will not dominate. Perhaps it will end with 25%. Android/Linux could go as high as iPad is now or a bit higher. Apple really doesn’t care about share of units. They just want the money to flow so they don’t compete on the low end at all.

  8. William Tyberius Shatner says:

    Oops! Even if all the undecided buy iPad the maximum share of future purchases is 78%. That’s not very likely considering the current market share of 73% of installed base.

    I don’t see how you figure that there’s that much of a correlation between the current market share and the potential market share of future buyers. The current share is not the upper bound of what potential buyers will buy. It’s entirely plausible and likely that a higher percentage of potential buyers end up buying iPads vis-a-vis the current share the iPad has amongst tablet owners.

    The conclusion you draw that the iPad is losing market share makes little sense, given that there is no information provided about how large the pool of potential tablet buyers is, you’re just assuming there are as many potential buyers of tablets as there are people who own tablets, if that’s the case it’s INSANE market growth, doubling year over year.

    Even if this is the case, and the tablet market doubles, with 78% of new tablet owners purchasing iPads, thids is actually Apple growing their share by 2.5% (the midian between their current share at 73% and the share of new buyers t 78%)

    The other conclusion you draw makes even less sense, even if your imaginary figures of 50-60% are true, which is both unlikely and lacking any factual, informed or researched basis, I mean your rationale for deriving those numbers appears to be little more than “BECAUSE ICE CREAM SAMMICH LOL!”, it leaves 40% to be fought over by Android devices and Windows 8 devices, and the iPad still holds a majority, whioch is the opposite of being displaced.

    Furthermore, the numbers you do provide with a source suggest that the maximal share Android can hold is 24.5% (the midian between the current share of 27% vis-a-vis the 22% share of potential new tablet owners) for a loss of 2.5%.

    This of course is assuming that the pool of potential new tablet owners is the same size as the currnt user base, and completely ignores the imminent release of Windows 8 into the tablet market.

    At best, I can figure you’re perhaps deriving your 50-60% figure by adding up the 22% and 27% figures of non-iPad tablets, but that’s not how percentages work.

    It appears that you’re first attributing the entirety of the 28% that is undecided to Apple, then concluding that it is, for reasons that are unknown to the rest of us, not likely that Apple actually increases their share, then attributing it to Android, again, for reasons you don’t share.

    At best, and again assuming that the market doubles over within the next year, there’s a maximal base for Android of49% (because at least half will go with iPads) which translates to roughly 38% for non-iPad devices, which while showing a loss for Apple, ignores quite a few key variables, and makes a number of baseless assumptions (that everyone who is undecided will go android, that Windows 8 won’t see so much as a single tablet purchase, that Ice Cream sammich won;t flop, that the market will double or more)

  9. -hh says:

    Another recently undocumented survey finds:

    73% of products that successfully create a new segment in the marketplace invariably attract other competitors to offer products in that segment, and

    100% of the ‘Marketshare’ in a new segment always belongs to whoever developed the new product segment by literal definition, which means that as soon as there’s any additional competitors, the originator mathmatically must lose ‘marketshare’ (even if his sales are still doubling), and

    “82% of Blog authors are utterly shocked at how percentages works, as well as how Capitalism works, despite hundreds of years of historical precidence for both.”

    🙂

    -hh

  10. Contrarian says:

    “Apple is laughing all the way to the bank as the android manufacturers are fighting for scraps.”

    Apple is the standard of comparison and all others are measured against it. Apple has the eclat image and leadership position to command a premium price from those with the means to pay it. It started with the iPod and has migrated to the iPad and iPhone. Quite a bit of that image is transferring to the Macintosh as well.

    Android has a plebeian image at best and phones and tablets deriving from it are shopping goods that result in continual price erosion as one manufacturer or another find themselves with too much unsold stock on hand.

    #pogson applauds that as “competition” and “good for the consumer”, but, in the long run, it only leads to a shutdown as manufacturers find more fertile fields.

  11. Pogson's #1 fan says:

    see Kantar

    Kantar also finds that 50% of smart phones are selling with Android/Linux.

    And yet apple takes in more than 2/3rds if all profits from global smartphone sales. Apple is laughing all the way to the bank as the android manufacturers are fighting for scraps.

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