Everyone seems to be doing it. Why not me? Forecasting sales of tablets is easy.
- Google’s Android 4.0 aka Ice-cream Sandwich will soon appear and be loved, particularly with the new quad-core CPUs.
- That other OS won’t get “8” out until near the end of 2012.
- iPad 3 also is months away
- Tablets will continue to take 10% share of the PC market and another 10% of “new” market.
- Tablets will sell about 70 million units in 2012, 35million replacements for PCs and 35million sales for their own worth.
- iPad’s share which is about 60-70% today will be cut in half due to a great diversity of suppliers of Android/Linux tablets with every feature some consumers and organizations could ever want.
- In 2012, Android/Linux tablets will rule the roost with 60% share and iPad will decline to about 30%.
The fans of Apple claim iPad will hold its own in 2012 but they are just whistling. They also believed that iPhone would hold its own but it took only a year for its share to be cut in half. One supplier cannot stand up against such a large marketing system as Android/Linux has. iPhone shipped 20million units in Q2 2011 but Android/Linux shipped 47million. Android/Linux smart phones had three times the rate of growth of iPhone. There is no reason that will not also happen with tablets. If Apple thought it had no worries, would it be suing the world over Android/Linux tablets? Would it be doctoring photos of Samsung’s tablet to make it look more like an iPad to fool the courts?