Footsteps

M$ has leveraged its desktop monopoly into server rooms but the good times may be short-lived.

According to IDC,

  • Linux server demand increased for the seventh consecutive quarter in 2Q11, with revenue growing 47.5% to $2.7 billion when compared with the second quarter of 2010. Linux servers represent 20.5% of all server revenue in the quarter as Linux server demand was helped significantly by Fujitsu’s large scale K-computer HPC system in Japan.
  • Microsoft Windows server demand also continued to show strong growth as Windows-based hardware revenue increased 12.4% year-over-year. Quarterly revenue of $5.9 billion for Windows servers represented 45.5% of overall quarterly factory revenue and 71.0% of all quarterly server shipments.

Growth of revenue for GNU/Linux servers is growing four times as fast as revenue for that other OS. If those rates of growth continue:

M$

GNU/Linux

2Q11

5.9

2.7

2Q12

6.7

4.2

2Q13

7.5

6.6

4Q14

8.0

8.3

by the end of 2014, GNU/Linux will take over not only web serving and HPC but also OEM servers… M$ must be hearing footsteps. What’s a poor monopolist to do? What? They’re moving to the cloud? GNU/Linux owns that. Even the big guys use GNU/Linux. IBM claims 80% of Fortune 500s use IBM’s Smart Cloud.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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14 Responses to Footsteps

  1. Contrarian says:

    “The report contains two sets of revenue numbers. Factory and Customer.”

    #oiaohm, you are such a transparent BS generator, it defies belief. I am intrigued, though. Could you please provide a definition for “Factory Revenue” and contrast it with “Customer Revenue”? I cannt imagine what you might try to say about that and I think it would be fascinating to see you try. Be careful not to infringe on Jon Lovitz’s schtik, though.

    http://snltranscripts.jt.org/85/85bliar.phtml

  2. oiaohm says:

    Contrarian Over the years I have got the Full IDC report.

    I am not confused all you are reading is extracts. Contrarian you need to pay for the full report at some point.

    The report contains two sets of revenue numbers. Factory and Customer.

    This is my big problem in the press report “Server unit” If you get the full report. There is a problem. Not all companies hand over Units shipped. IDC is able to extract revenue numbers from stock market reports. Unit numbers are only used for a general guess of what the market is doing because IDC knows they are incomplete.

    Full report contains the methods used to generate the numbers. Statitics without method used to generate them is like average. “mean median mode” Same number set complete different values the difference is method used. Not knowing the method makes you believe completely the wrong thing.

    “all quarterly server shipments” refers to customer revenue extracted number. Not to Units shipped due to the simple fact IDC is not sure inside 10 percent of the true number of unit shipped allowing error. Due to the fact some unit numbers are guesses based off share-market reports by particular companies because particular companies will not talk to IDC.

    None of IDC “Market Findings” are based in Unit Numbers. Its all revenue based. Due to the fact IDC is more sure of the revenue numbers. Since revenue numbers is what companies are legally forced to supply to the stock market. So IDC can always get those numbers even if the company does not want to talk to IDC.

    45.5 is the number you can safely use for windows as a rough market share. 71 not safe to many fudge factors in it. Really IDC knows this and really should not have published it the way the did.

    Robert Pogson the simple point IDC is hiding the Units because they know they are highly fudge factor. + or – 10 percent of there correct value at best. Yes this is enough that Linux and Unix could be in the wrong order. Its enough that Microsoft might be smaller than both Unix and Linux. In fact some non report companies to IDC include companies VA Linux Systems so its numbers for the IDC report are generated by stock market report numbers. So yes we know large sections of the Linux numbers are fudged in Unit numbers.

    Yes the true fact is we have no good numbers. Revenue numbers are the nearest we have to correct with the least error factor. Problem is revenue is basically worthless to work out what is fully going on.

    Contrarian and Robert Pogson know what you are reading and you will not pull the wrong numbers to base an argument on.

    There is more than enough dispute that can be done using the 45.5 percent thinking that is higher than the Linux or Unix number at this stage.

    Really I get sick of people who have never read the methods used by IDC thinking they can use the numbers. Because mostly the use the number wrong and presume they have different meaning to what they do.

    Customer revenue mixed up with Unit numbers is a major screw up Contrarian.

    Yes I don’t blame you Contrarian. The IDC extract is no where near clear enough what the 71% number really is. I guess you have never had the IDC full report with methods. Lot of people cannot afford to spend for the full report. I don’t hold it against you at this stage. But this will change if you keep on pushing it.

    Yes I would be happier if IDC would at least one year publish the extract written in a clean form that people will not screw up reading it.

    Issue comes about because “all quarterly server shipments” to be clear should contain either the word revenue or units. This case its revenue. Yes shipments is nice word to insert with no real fix meaning.

    I really wish I could kick IDC ass and stop them from doing this.

  3. IDC is very careful to hide unit shipments and always mentions growth. That is highly suspect. Everyone can read what they want into IDC’s numbers.

  4. Contrarian says:

    “so the growth in GNU/Linux servers is at the expense of that other OS.”

    Nope. All growth is due to overall market expansion. The poor get richer, as you note, but the rich get richer, too.

    BTW, do you want to clue #oiaohm in on the issue of unit shipments or are you just as mystified by the IDC report?

  5. oiaohm says:

    Contrarian 71 percent is not unit volume. Its shipment revenue percentage.

    “$5.9 billion for Windows servers represented 45.5% of overall quarterly factory revenue and 71.0% of all quarterly server shipments.”

    Quarterly server shipments is not on units but revenue. Factory revenue shock horror is the hardware without OS.

    Of course it becomes very clear there is a problem when you get the full IDC report and the Linux factory revenue figures and quarterly server shipments are almost exactly the same number.

    The difference is in fact the cost of windows. Factory made income is lower due to having to pay for Windows.

    IDC does not do any Unit figures at all. Contrarian They are all revenue based figures. Sometimes written up in highly deceptive ways. So serous-ally there is a problem.

    Yes most read the 45.5 as revenue figure and the 71 as not when that is not what its saying.

    71 percent of all server shipment revenue is from Windows machines.

    45.5 of factory revenue is from servers without OS.

    The problem what is the factories producing for the other 54.5 percent of the time.

    Basically Microsoft is getting one hell of a cut to take from 45.5 percent to 71 percent of revenue between factorory and customer.

  6. Contrarian wrote, “Linux is most often substituted for unix on larger servers”.

    I never replaced a UNIX server.

    It makes sense that GNU/Linux replaced a lot of UNIX servers running on Sparc or other expensive hardware but recently UNIX is growing so that argument is weak. GNU/Linux works on servers and is often used for new services and migration from some of that other OS because of cost, performance, reliability, software development, etc.

    According to IDC, “Unix servers experienced a second consecutive quarter showing year-on-year factory revenue improvement, growing 1.5% when compared to 2Q10. Unix server revenues were $2.9 billion, representing 22.0% of quarterly server revenue in the quarter. IBM’s Unix server revenue increased 14.0% year over year in the quarter, as IBM gained 6.0 points of Unix server market share.” so the growth in GNU/Linux servers is at the expense of that other OS.

  7. I know its hard for a sycophant of M$ to imagine GNU/Linux getting ahead, but that’s where the numbers lead. In detail, given the annual rate, I used 11.9% as the quarterly rate. The path is not circular but assumes only the present situation, as far as geometric growth, continues. It works for flies until the birds and spiders eat. It works for bacteria until the food-supply is consumed. It works for PCs as long as people keep up with the Jones family. It works until saturation or some other change develops.

  8. Contrarian says:

    “If that value remains constant the results follow.”

    Actually they do not, check your calculations for 4Q14. I think you pushed the wrong key on your calculater there.

    In any case, your statement boils down to “If my premise remains valid then it is valid” which is a rather circular path to follow.

  9. Contrarian says:

    “IDC numbers are completely revenue based including the 71% bit.”

    You continue to show that you are such a clod, #oiaohm! I would laugh, but you are becoming such a bore. IDC reports both revenue and unit share in their report. Did you miss

    “Quarterly revenue of $5.9 billion for Windows servers represented 45.5% of overall quarterly factory revenue and 71.0% of all quarterly server shipments. ”

    That is almost half the money and 70% of the unit volume, #oiaohm; pay some attention to what is written. Linux is most often substituted for unix on larger servers, which accounts for its growth and why the Linux server revenue is concentrated on fewer units.

  10. oiaohm says:

    revenue is bad metric. Robert Pogson and Contrarian.

    IDC numbers are completely revenue based including the 71% bit.

    Thinking most Linux Servers have a lower sale price than windows servers and lower markups.

    “K-computer HPC system in Japan” Hardware acquirement was just hardware no OS at all on the provided machines.

    So Linux might be all ready leading in units deployed. We need better number providers than IDC. There numbers really a crap to work out what is truly going on.

    Also the revenue by IDC is before costs. So its not even profit. So the Linux might be more profit for hardware makers than Windows as well.

  11. That’s not necessarily a mistake. r had a certain value this year. If that value remains constant the results follow.

  12. Contrarian says:

    Your mistake is in thinking that r is constant, #pogson.

  13. No, not “straight line” but geometric growth, y = a(1 + r)n. Straight would be y = a + bx. The cloud and thin clients are giving a huge pop to servers and that will continue for many years.

  14. Contrarian says:

    “If those rates of growth continue:”

    Old “straight line” #pogson at work, eh? You might give some consideration to the fact that your prediction would required the server market itself to have a huge jump in overall growth. That’s not going to happen, I think.

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