Phoney FUD

Sigh. Even CNN is running some FUD these days. A report is all over the web finding that iPhone users will stick with Apple and Android users wished they were iPhone users. The research?
“In a survey of 216 mobile phone users conducted one recent week in Minneapolis” at one place in the city…

There’s a good sample of the universe, eh? With such a small sample of the universe the conclusions are quite invalid. For example, if you stop somewhere and ask passers-by a question with a yes/no answer, nothing prevents you from getting the first 216 saying “yes” and the next 216 saying “no”, although that is unlikely. The standard deviation of such counting experiments goes ~ N1/2, so counts like 20 – 30 which appeared in the study are +/- 5 or so. When you consider that USA gives Apple twice the popularity as the rest of the world and last time I was there, Minneapolis was in USA, the sample is extremely biased and conclusions based on it are unreliable. Still, they are all over the web…

The question, “Which phone will you buy next?”, was found to be 64% iPhone in 139 counts and 17% Android in 36 counts. The counts could just as easily have been 139 – 12 = 59% of 216 and 36 + 6 = 19% of 216, not much different. A four-fold ratio in the results could really be a statistical error of a real ratio less than 2.5. So the survey, it’s conclusion and the story are just about worthless.

Real global data, not a survey, show Android having overtaken iPhone a while back and growing rapidly against the iPad. 30% share of tablets and 30 point growth rate per annum could mean overtaking iPad in a few months.

see, if you want a laugh, Survey: iPhone retention 94% vs. Android 47%

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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