7.6 Million ARMed Notebooks to Ship in 2012

And so it comes to pass that Pogson’s predictions for 2011 are coming to fruition in the fullness of time. Acer is announcing a new notebook running Android this month. Predictions are that 7.6 million ARMed notebooks will ship next year ramping up to about 22% of notebooks by 2015. It makes sense. People love small cheap portable computers and using ARM + Android Honeycomb makes them smaller, cheaper and more portable.

“Wang stressed that Acer will adopt a new strategy to create more value instead of pursuing volume growth.

Acer plans to launch the world’s first notebook powered by a dual-core Tegra 2 CPU in July and will also release new models running on Android 3.2, said Wang”
see Acer to deliver ARM notebook within nine days

When both x86 and ARM reach the point of vanishing returns in that power consumption is not an issue, ARM will have a large share of personal computing markets.
see Pogson – Magic Pixie Dust or Why x86 Cannot Beat ARM

see Pogson – Top-end ARM

Those last two are from February 2011 when I saw the writing on the wall and wrote about it here. Change is coming pretty fast when an old man sitting at home can anticipate a wave of change that takes a few months to take a bite out of Wintel. It’s not even “next year” country.

Still, knowledgeable people are in denial. oldman commented about “Top-end ARM”, no desktop market exists. Some of those Wintel notebooks being displaced ran a desktop GUI, I believe. 🙂

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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7 Responses to 7.6 Million ARMed Notebooks to Ship in 2012

  1. Motorola has the Atrix which is a smart phone with a dock that has a keyboard and netbookish screen.

    Then there is Trimslice, a tiny PC box, to which you can hook a monitor, keyboard and mouse. You should be able to put Android/Linux or GNU/Linux on it.

    There is a video of the Trimslice at http://trimslice.com/web/trim-slice-gallery.

    I am sure there are others. The advantages of small, cheap and quiet are too good to miss. These gadgets all make my thin client seem like a fire-breathing dragon. Really, it is so tiny you could carry a keyboard and mouse and use the tablet as a screen.

  2. Lynne Hand says:

    I’m actively looking for a notebook that runs Android. I love the way it works on my Archos, but I need the productivity of a proper keyboard. (I am the tip of the iceberg.) 🙂

  3. Contrarian says:

    Nothing beats being precise, #pogson. Takes a lot of guesswork out of the system. 🙂

  4. Oh, all right. I will edit the title and the article. Still, a significant number of notebooks or notebook-like docked thingies will ship this year.

  5. Contrarian says:

    “Next year starts now”

    But your headline states 2011 and the article states 2012. You can use your own timeframe, but then you cannot use the numbers quoted for another timeframe entirely. That only leads to confusion on your part.

  6. iSuppli gets that wrong of course. ARMed devices shipping with Android are growing at huge rates while that other OS languishes near zero growth. I expect zero growth is what M$ will see on ARM. They may pay people to produce the devices but consumers will have a choice. Between sluggishness, re-re-reboots and malware, or a slick OS like Android/Linux, what do you think they will choose?

    I live in the present. Next year starts now. The consumers are gobbling everything up that run Android/Linux on ARM. The iPhone was trampled in a year. The iPad might take two but it’s happening. x86 has taken a hit from ARM in the last two quarters. It’s not a next year thing.

  7. Contrarian says:

    You seem rather quick to pat yourself on the back, #pogson. I think you may have slipped a cog here. Your cite says in regard to the 7.6M units with ARM:

    “So predicts market watcher iHS iSuppli, which also reckons 7.6m ARM-based laptops will ship next year – three per cent of total number of notebooks shipped”

    You might note that the year referenced is 2012, which is not “this year”, of course.

    Further, the article says:

    “Only one half of the Wintel monopoly is being broken, though. While ARM chips will eat into the market share of x86 chip maker Intel, it’s Microsoft’s Windows 8 that will drive the adoption of ARM by laptop makers,”

    That is far from your prediction of doom for Microsoft Windows as well and certainly makes your taking such a curtain call rather presumptuous.

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