There’s more evidence that Android/Linux is about to overtake the iPad as it did the iPhone. 50% of shipments of tablets in June in Taiwan were non-iPads.
There is a possibility that iPad could regain some share as supply-side bottlenecks open but that will also affect the non-iPad segment. Apple choked everyone by securing long term supply contracts. Suppliers are now expanding production although they will be a limiting factor for a time yet.
Other important and related developments are that Motorola Xoom will have a $100 pricing cut and 28nm production of ARM chips is imminent. These are signs that the market for tablets is maturing and becoming a stable feature of IT. We are near the end of early adoption and approaching the mainstreaming of tablets.
The absence of Wintel has allowed what took a decade with PCs to happen in a year or two with ARM and diverse software ecosystems. Wintel is unlikely to put this genie back in the bottle. M$ is more than a year away from releasing “8” for tablets with ARM and Intel is still far from matching the price/energy/performance ratio of ARM. Further, within a year, ARM will match the performance of low-end x86 CPUs and intrude in the desktop/notebook markets for reasons of price, size, weight, energy consumption and performance.