Nokia Sinks Slowly in the East

The market for cell-phones in Taiwan shows Nokia is sinking. Samsung has become number one. Globally, Nokia still leads handily but share sank 5% points in the past year. With Nokia’s last hope to be Phoney “7” and product not expected for a while, things are not looking good for Nokia. Perhaps they should have gone with Android/Linux… 😐

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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25 Responses to Nokia Sinks Slowly in the East

  1. Contrarian says:

    “Is 75% overwhelming”

    Well, if you were a sports writer and the home team had won the game 75 – 17, would you not call that a rout? Maybe in Canada it would be a hockey game and the score would be 7 to 2. Is that a rout?

    In any case, it was oiaohm’s claim that Linux was getting 100% of areas that held Linux interest that I was disputing. Certainly that is the case with servers.

  2. According to IDC,
    “Linux server demand increased for the sixth consecutive quarter in 1Q11, with revenue growing 16.6% to $2.0 billion when compared with the first quarter of 2010. Linux servers now represent 16.9% of all server revenue, up 0.7 points over 1Q10.
    Microsoft Windows server demand also continued to show strong demand as Windows-based hardware revenue increased 10.1% year-over-year. Quarterly revenue of $5.8 billion for Windows servers represented 48.5% of overall quarterly factory revenue and 75.2% of all quarterly server shipments.”

    Is 75% overwhelming? 48.5% is not either, for a monopolist. GNU/Linux is doing well on servers, still growing and saving people money and hassles. The smaller share of revenue compared to shipments suggests people are putting that other OS on smaller/cheaper servers. With virtualization, that means GNU/Linux is taking a much larger role.

  3. Contrarian says:

    “Yes their is these days not a router maker that there top of line router is not Linux. Its only a matter of time before that moves down the product range of them all completely. … Biggest seller of routers dlink.”

    Originally you said that Linux had 100% of the routers and when I pointed out that is not the case, you say that only the “top of the line” is Linux. The most expensive models for Netgear and LinkSys are not Linux based, though. That is contrary to most people’s notions of “top of the line”. Also, you say that the Linux models have more RAM but why? It doesn’t do anything that the less expensive model does not also do.

    DLink seems to be a much smaller player than the others, too. Where do you get your information. Also, when you Google for a DLink router using Linux, you come up empty. I don’t see where DLink uses Linux at all.

    “Remember what I said about Linux being interested in markets that provide developers not cash. So the market of most interest to Linux is in fact the google and others like them in the server world.”

    #oiaohm, I have tried mightily to come to some sort of understanding of what sort of meaning you intended by this nonsensical statement. Nothing suggests itself. For one thing, Linux is a product, not an entity that would be interested in som goal. For another, you have to have a marketing effort to have any interest in some market niche. Linux, more or less, just “is”.

    “Really Contrarian Explain something. If MS is really selling at 40%+ why are there numbers here falling”

    Obviously most servers are not web servers. Web servers are, it seems, the bottom of the barrel in terms of server complexity and capacity. You can take a junk box desktop and load Linux on it and use it as a web server. All it has to be able to keep up with is its LAN connection. If you are going to run a bunch of web sites on one server then you need a better server or if you are accessing a very complex database with the web server and want to host it on the same machine, you might need a much better piece of hardware. I would not dispute that a majority of web servers use Linux as the OS, there is really no reason not to do that unless you have to have ASP.NET services and even then you could use mono, as I understand.

    The servers that people are buying though, are overwhelmingly sold with Windows as the server OS.

  4. oiaohm says:

    Contrarian do me a favor and really do write down the full specs. I am sorry to say the netgears with Linux are also like the cisco with Linux. More ram more flash.

    Now why do those device need more ram. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dd-wrt Because once the firmware is flashed with the companies firmware the router becomes part of the Network intrusion detection system allowing items like site filtering to be done from the router. Remember there is a reason why they are 20-30 dollars more nothing to do with being ripped off. In hands of those who know how to use them they are way more powerful.

    Also you don’t need as many models from the Linux side. Reason the Linux one is the top model and can be converted into what ever the end user required.

    Yes their is these days not a router maker that there top of line router is not Linux. Its only a matter of time before that moves down the product range of them all completely.

    Biggest seller of routers dlink.

    To be correct Linux has only been interested in particular segments of the server market.

    Contrarian
    “What you do in the privacy of your home or what Google or anyone else does internally is their own business. If you or they deem it more economical to do it yourself, it only affects the size of the market. Maybe the market would be much larger if you bought servers pre-installed with some OS or other but the market is what it is and it is pretty much dominated by Windows in terms of money collected, some 76% IIRC, and in number of units, some 41% as reported elsewhere here. Compare that to the 8% or so of the units shipping with Linux.”

    Ok so the fact that Google is one of the providers of programmers to Linux Kernel and other Linux projects.

    Remember what I said about Linux being interested in markets that provide developers not cash. So the market of most interest to Linux is in fact the google and others like them in the server world.

    Number of full time developers working on the Linux kernel are more than the number of developers at Microsoft working on all projects. What is the point of collecting the money if the money does not go into improving the code.

    Basically Contrarian money is not everything. Shocking but true. It is how that money is spent.

    Contrarian basically you are playing a game of lets pretend. Let pretend the biggest servers in existence don’t exist. Let pretend that they don’t pay for their OS by employing developers to work on it. Basically lets forget a market that is about 9 times bigger.

    Sections of the server market have be very little interest to Linux. Small business networks in a lot of cases have been no interest. Low supply of developers from there.

    Really server market is not one market. Contrarian.

    Web site hosting. Linux dominates that. Major data processing Linux dominates that. Shockingly those are the two largest segments.

    Basically Contrarian the numbers you are referring to is the section of the server market Linux has very little interest in at this stage because the players in it are too small to have their own developers. To provide a desktop market equal. The section in the server market the numbers you are pulling would be like saying all the numbers of apple machines sold was the complete desktop market. If I did that you would rip into me for major market number distortion.

    Shocking fact is that google does not even use off the self motherboards. The big guys custom order.

    Really Contrarian Explain something. If MS is really selling at 40%+ why are there numbers here falling. http://news.netcraft.com/archives/2011/06/07/june-2011-web-server-survey.html Please don’t say Linux bias numbers. Microsoft owns netcraft.

    All comparative studies so major issues with the numbers you are using. Like the studies that go business to business asking what they are really using don’t show 40 percent MS market share in servers. Shows under 25 percent market share globally. The studies that don’t normally miss counting network connected storage doing server roles as Linux when they are.

    Contrarian this is basic statistics. A true and correct statistic does not have cases of major conflicting results turning up that their is not a clear explain for.

    If server sales fully built were right. Ground audits would be matching. Basically the numbers you are using are reading high for Windows and low of Linux. Completely missing how Linux is mostly paid for. Support contracts and paying developers this is how Linux is mostly paid.

    Lets say I have a support contract with redhat. I go out and buy a new server. Of course I buy that with or without Windows depending on what one lands the hardware at my door cheaper. Format it when it turns up to Linux. Then maybe call redhat and expand my support contract by 1.

    Notice something OEM selling me the server has no records of what OS I am running. I might be counted as a windows user because the company was selling the windows installed version cheaper.

    Redhat income has grown by insane amounts over the last 3 years every year. This is more support contracts sold and support contracts by redhat are per server. Yet the numbers you are pointing to show no linux growth over the last 3 years. Also in the last 3 years redhat has in fact dropped their prices. So 25% growth per year for the last 3 years would be more like 30%.

    Now their is your problem. Where is that growth. Why can your numbers not see it. Also remember SUSE in Novell was the only segment of novell seeing growth and even that its been taken over its still growing. Its not like Redhat took out other Linux’s for the market.

    Ubuntu also has a growing server market share. See a problem yet. Your numbers don’t add up with what is happening. Even when MS sales dipped and redhat grew complete miss alignments.

  5. Contrarian says:

    “There are a large number of groups in the third world who are having trouble even getting basic computing in place.”

    Affordability is a big problem in those areas, I agree. I sort of think that is why Microsoft may cry crocodile tears about piracy but they really do very little to stop it in any situation where the pirate is penniless. Let the BSA glom onto a successful business that is shy of a requisite number of licenses and it is a different story, but a Christian school in Mumbai is pretty immune to any prosecution.

    When and if there are some greenbacks to be had, it is a different story. I remember that MS has dropped pricing to almost zero in recent times for area and language restricted versions of Windows for use in countries that are too poor to buy them and perhaps too inept to effectively pirate them.

  6. Contrarian says:

    “All other router makers have a in-house OS team. ”

    I think you are just pulling my leg, #oiaohm! It seems inconsequential to rant about routers, but I went to the trouble to look around for Netgear routers with Linux and they have two models out of the dozens that they make. Those cost $20-$30 more than the others with the same specs, too. I think they are pulling a fast one on you advocates.

    “But don’t you get it the numbers you are referring to are scarily wrong and you don’t have to look far to find it.”

    Just ask you? 🙂

    What you do in the privacy of your home or what Google or anyone else does internally is their own business. If you or they deem it more economical to do it yourself, it only affects the size of the market. Maybe the market would be much larger if you bought servers pre-installed with some OS or other but the market is what it is and it is pretty much dominated by Windows in terms of money collected, some 76% IIRC, and in number of units, some 41% as reported elsewhere here. Compare that to the 8% or so of the units shipping with Linux. that hardly qualifies as an example of where you say:

    “Any market Linux has truly turned resources to getting. It has got almost 100 percent market share.”

    Unless, of course, you want to say that Linux really hasn’t been interested in the server market. Is that your next story?

  7. oiaohm says:

    oldman
    “The real question will be to what extent is a government going to ram FOSS down the throats of profitable businesses who can afford better.”

    In fact yes. In china for a while it was mandatory if running a internet cafe to be using only RedFlag Linux. And I do mean strict that. Nothing else was suitable. I can dig up list of different countries where government software to do government actions have been either only for Linux or only for Windows. So far I have never seen a government to only for Apple.

    And here in Australia I have the insane reverse. I need to do my tax return and the government pays for a copy of windows todo it. Yes per year I can 1 copy of windows free because the government pays for it. In fact it gets worse. Since I am running Linux the government will pay for 1 free copy of vmware so I can run the require version of windows inside Linux so I can run the tax return software.

    Yes this is pure bonkers thinking the tax return software works perfectly in wine. But this is as far as you must use closed source software can go from a government. Yes qemu virtualbox that are free are not considered.

    Also just to get to the really insane part. It windows 7 professional this year as a full tax write off.

    So using Windows for 1 machine for me is Free.

    Really the market is highly effect by government and secondary effected by education.

    “They will adapt assuming the governments let businesses make their own decisions.”

    The truth of the matter is simple Governments will not let you make your own decisions freely and still be able to do business. They will be setting your requirements.

    A free market for OS and Applications only truly exists in a country who government interface are OS and Application neutral. Most of the developed and third world do not meet this state.

    Education is a secondary factor. Like you oldman not knowing how to use openoffice/libreoffice/broffice uno interface. So someone raised in a country with a high dominate state of openoffice/libreoffice/broffice in there education system when needing to process or produce excel documents from a script would reach for the uno interface. Where a person from a MS Office dominated schooling will reach for the excel com interface and due to me working on TCO I have to bash that fact out of them when they come and work for me.

    Neutral schooling student should know like me how todo both and be able to choose each on a task by task base. No where in the world is Neutral schooling happening.

    Simple fact oldman I got more aware of this once I was having to police TCO for device production. Where each cent counts. Very quickly I started seeing differences in the am-mount of correcting I had todo to get people correct TCO level. Their countries education was a major factor.

    Basically if you did my job for 6 months what is really going on is as plan as day. Yes after a while you can pick what country they are from by the items they had to be corrected on with a pretty exact match.

  8. Businesses can and do choose GNU/Linux. Governments are very large businesses. They sometimes choose GNU/Linux for price/performance but also for the greater good of their countries. It is not good for every country on Earth to allow M$ to dictate IT platforms.

  9. oldman says:

    “But the differences trace to the two things I just talked about. OS in Government and OS in education.”

    There is of course nothing that can be done when governments circumvent commerce for ideological or political reasons. The real question will be to what extent is a government going to ram FOSS down the throats of profitable businesses who can afford better.

    Note that I am not talking just about microsoft here, but about any commercial software. Remember any government requirements for open data formats can be accommodated – most commercial vendors will be more than happy to do this if faced with loss of market.

    Likewise those same vendors will most likely have to deal with the fact that what the market will bear in the third world is significantly different from what is the state in the developed world. They will adapt assuming the governments let businesses make their own decisions.

    Still this is as far as I am concerned all opinion on BOTH our parts. I suspect reality is going to be somewhere in between.

  10. oiaohm says:

    Contrarian surprise suspense linksys and cisco systems is not the largest home router seller.

    Cisco is the last hold out VxWorks has lower hardware spec requirements only think holding it. But you have to have a license to use it. Low end devices Cisco has been on and off again Linux has a Cisco acquirement reasons. Wind River that makes VxWorks also make an embedded Linux. Yes Cisco pays the same to Wind River for VxWorks as the customized embedded Linux.

    So its not really abandoned. If Linux reduces its memory foot print or provides some other great feature cisco system can basically switch over in an instant. Due to the upper level programs on their devices being Linux compatible. Yes VxWorks is Linux syscall compadible. So yes the kernels are interchangeable in a lot of cases. Without rebuilding a thing. So the price difference for the Linux version. Is more flash more ram. Not OS development cost.

    Yes almost identical specs. Same chipset and cpu. The Linux version is double the ram and flash of its VxWorks relations.

    All other router makers have a in-house OS team. So for them using VxWorks would add more to the cost of Unit than using Linux.

    USA market numbers Android is leading Apple in tablets and phones. So Apple is already losing grip on that. Partly because Linux had past windows CE before android was even release in phones. Iphone was a good move on Apple part.

    Contrarian
    “only about 8 or 9% of the servers sold annually come equipped with Linux. Some 41% of all servers sold show up as coming with Windows Server OS installed.” But don’t you get it the numbers you are referring to are scarily wrong and you don’t have to look far to find it.

    Google buys servers? No they don’t. In fact nothing in the google servers farms would have shown up. Because when you do google and order a stack of parts. Those parts don’t appear in those numbers. This is not uncommon for large server farms. So they don’t show. amazon…. Don’t appear.

    When I build a server running windows or Linux for a customer custom. My numbers don’t appear. Now you have a problem. 41% of what. Its not 41% of total servers deployed. In fact one study showed that less than %10 of servers are aquired full assembled in traceable supply lines as completed servers. Yes more hardware goes out as parts into the server market. Ie they are not tracing cases. That is a interesting number. Server cases. Yes 90 percent more go out each year than the numbers you are referring to. Now if they were not being filled where are they going. That does not include machines that get upgrade or refer-bused or converted. Yes the numbers of server cases sold per year show the problem.

    Large number of them are coming without OS. Reason Linux install locations will not want them factory installed. Windows install locations will want them installed reason OEM license is cheaper.

    Linux distributions provide no discount for OEM installed.

    So at best the numbers you have are a bias sample of reality not normalized. Windows most likely be reading higher than reality.

    oldman this is a wrong statement.
    “A more likely scenario is that third world markets, especially in countries like China and India, will begin to adopt the different technilogies in roughly the same proportions as they are in the developed world.”

    I can point out why. If your government using Microsoft as a dominate OS. You can be forced to use Microsoft todo business in some cases. The reverse is also true. There are a lot of third world countries where the government is Linux based this throws the numbers basically majorly.

    Who ever has the government computers basically will get 80 percent market share. That has repeated the world over. Even turn in countries where the dominate OS in government is still dos so the dominate installed OS in that country is still dos.

    Also what education systems are using also has a large factor. So lot of third world countries their education systems are using Linux. So when boss asks how todo something staff respond with a Linux solution not a MS one. So yes the numbers are radically different in third world countries even country to country. But the differences trace to the two things I just talked about. OS in Government and OS in education.

  11. oldman says:

    Contrarian:

    If you haven’t already figured it out, Pog has written off the developed world (US and Europe) and is pinning his hopes for the future on the masses in the third world. He will point to the government mandated rollouts of Linux centric solutions, and Of course lump in the sales of Android based mobile devices to “prove” that Linux is winning.

    But he does also consistently refuse to accept delivery that Microsoft is also in all of these countries as well, as are all of the major commercial vendors, selling to those who can actually afford the luxury of having a computer, not to mention the business with international ties who are making use of the same windows based commercial applications are are in use in the “developed wold”

    He refuses to accept delivery on the reality personal users in india and china would wrather pirate commercial software than use FOSS on linux.

    He dismisses as an aberation situations like the development house in india that had to back off forcibly converting their developers to Linux based tools because those developers threatened to quit en messe.

    His mantra is that the world can develop its own software. this is a true statement. the problem is of course, that for those individuals and corporations who have the money and are willing to accept ongoing license and support costs associated with a particular piece of software as the cost of doing business, there is simply no reason to do so.

    This having been said, there is always the possibility that he could be right. There are a large number of groups in the third world who are having trouble even getting basic computing in place. for these beggars who can not be choosers, the Linux FOSS combination may be good enough. Whether it will produce the desured result of running the hated microsoft into oblivion is IMHO dubious. A more likely scenario is that third world markets, especially in countries like China and India, will begin to adopt the different technilogies in roughly the same proportions as they are in the developed world.

    Which means IMHO that commercial software is going nowhere.

  12. Contrarian says:

    Well, I haven’t been into any large retail establishments in any of those places lately, but I really doubt that you have been there either. A five year old article from a Linux advocacy site handwaving about the success they were anticipating is not much of a bombshell either. I do know that the development site in India that the company I worked for until retiring used Windows workstations and servers made by Dell the same as the ones that e used in the US.

    As I have said a number of time, it really doesn’t matter until it starts to show up in a big way in the financial returns for the industry. It is waffling a lot with the problematical economy, but the business of computers is holding its own and even increasing somewhat. Projections are for significant growth resuming in 2012, as well, although you disagree I know.

    Taking a lot of money out of the equation by eliminating the price realization of the software that comes with the sale is hardly a good way to promote the industry’s future or the world’s economy in general.

    All the numbers that count are published somewhere and we do not have to guess.

  13. Contrarian wrote, “Nothing in the stores, nothing on Amazon, nothing anywhere in the popular sources.”

    You should ask those suppliers “why?”. The rest of the world has no problem selling units with GNU/Linux:
    Malaysia,
    India,
    China, and
    Brazil
    to name a few where one can go to a large retail establishment and choose a GNU/Linux system with ease. There is an article from 2006 on the status back then in southeast asia.

  14. Contrarian says:

    “Contrarian, you are out to lunch:”

    I am of the old school perhaps, but I think that Apple competes with companies such as Dell, Samsung, Hitachi, Motorola, SanDisk, and many others who offer similar products in one market or another that may be purchased instead of Apple products. Apple is murdering all comers in terms of market share. If you want to group all the others and say that Apple does not have a monopoly, that is fine.

    As to your assessment of the market for what you call “PCs” I would say that it is yourself who is in error. If that many PCs are “shipping with Linux” as you claim, it should be easy to identify the manufacturer(s) and there should be some universal visibility of such commerce. But there is none. Nothing in the stores, nothing on Amazon, nothing anywhere in the popular sources. A Linux computer is rarely encountered in a home. That is a fact.

    60% of Web servers may very well run Linux, but only about 8 or 9% of the servers sold annually come equipped with Linux. Some 41% of all servers sold show up as coming with Windows Server OS installed. In any case, #oiaohm was claiming nearly 100% and that is completely ridiculous, even if one were willing to accept your own figures.

  15. Contrarian, you are out to lunch:

  16. Smart phones Android is in first place with 40% share of global shipments – Apple has slipped to third place.
  17. PCs – MacOS is shipping on about 4% of PCs and GNU/Linux ships on 10%.
  18. Tablets – Apple expect to ship only 50% of the tablets shipped in 2011.
  19. Servers – 60% of web servers run GNU/Linux…