Mobile is Happening

Digitimes has a flurry of reports surrounding the departure of Lanci as CEO of Acer today. It’s all about changes in IT surrounding mobile devices. Digitimes predicts that in 2013 shipments of mobile devices will break down this way:

format number (millions)
notebook 250
tablet 130
smart phone 800

As Digitimes sees things,
“Most of the PC brand vendors had a slow start in the tablet PC market. But compared to Hewlett-Packard’s (HP) acquisition of Palm, and Dell’s and Lenovo’s acceleration in unveiling their products, Acer’s pace is slower than most of its competitors. Acer tried to establish a place in the LCD TV and smartphone markets, but failed. Lanci has to be held responsible for the failure to expand Acer’s product lines.”

That’s it. Digitimes sees tablets as having impact on IT generally and Acer’s failure to respond to the change stopped its growth. The same effect will impact M$. While M$ has a huge market share of the desktop PC space, it has almost nothing on mobile devices and “next year” won’t cut it. The predictions for tablet and smart phone production, above, show that the current shares of M$ in the market as indicated by Net Applications is quite wrong. Net Applications is probably reflecting a bias to desktops and notebooks somehow. We don’t know the sites monitored. We do know they don’t reflect the reality of people using smart thingies.

Digitimes is predicting a continued decline in growth of notebook shipments which now amount to about 60% of all “PCs”. That means in effect that M$’s share of the web will plummet in the next two years. I doubt that Phoney “7” or “8” will save M$ from that effect. Netbooks were a toe in the doorway for GNU/Linux. Smart thingies are a battering ram in comparison. By next year, that other OS will be just another OS choice on shelves of retailers and the monopoly will be broken. No exclusive dealing will work this time.

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This is not an April Fool’s Day joke. Lanci did step down, Acer’s market shifted faster than Acer could respond and the same will be true of M$ which makes a release of its OS every few years rather than every quarter as something/Linux can. Digitimes is a deadly serious organization in touch with many markets and their suppliers.

Meanwhile, “Microsoft Exec: Tablets Could Be Temporary Fad

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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5 Responses to Mobile is Happening

  1. Dann says:

    Don’t forget ITX.

  2. “Desktop” has two meanings here:

    1. a pc with a “desktop” GUI, and
    2. something resembling an ATX case sitting on, or near a desk.

    IDC does not count anything mobile except netbooks and notebooks as “PCs”. Others are suggesting that enough people are using the web and applications on smart thingies that these should now be classified as PCs. I would not likely use a smart phone as a PC but many millions with sharper eyes and smaller fingers than I do. In Japan there are millions who have a smart phone but never use a desktop or notebook. As the prices of smart thingies come down to where youths can afford them, this will be a huge shift. I saw enough people carrying iPods in the bush to believe it.

    The shift from desktop “box” to notebook sneaked up on many of us. I never noticed until they were about 40% of personal computers. I worked in schools with dozens of PCs and a tiny number of notebooks. The smart thingie is jumping up and down and shouting in our faces. We should take notice.

  3. Mats Hagglund says:

    I just wonder how these are classified:

    Desktop?
    Laptop?
    Netbook?
    Notebook?
    Tablet?
    Smartphone?

    Of course smarthphones and tablets are “mobile” and desktops are hmmm…desktops. Laptops too? But what about netbooks and notebooks?

    Here’s another estimate:

    http://gigaom.com/2010/04/12/mary-meeker-mobile-internet-will-soon-overtake-fixed-internet/

    There are two main classes: “Desktops” and “Mobiles”.

    I just wonder is Meeker put only tablets and smartphones in class “mobiles” and the rest are “desktops” or what is really “desktop”?

  4. I think IDC sees about 10% or less per annum growth. This reflects static numbers in mature markets and some growth into new markets.
    “Total shipments for 2010 reached 346.2 million, an increase of 13.6% that was fueled by a strong recovery in the first half of the year.”

    These factors are likely to slightly reduce growth from previous projections of about 10% for 2011, although replacements in the commercial segment and aggressive competition should still support double-digit growth in the second half of the year

    Smart thingies have multiples of 10% growth rates continuing.

  5. Mats Hagglund says:

    Has Digitimes estimated traditional desktops sale in 2013 (and now)?

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